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State of American Trucking
October 11, 2018
Rod Suarez
Economic Analyst
American Trucking Associations
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Average
June 2009 - Current
November 2001 - December 2007
March 1991 - March 2001
December 1982 - July 1990
July 1980 - July 1981
March 1975 - January 1980
November 1970 - November 1973
February 1961 - December 1969
April 1958 - April 1960
May 1954 - August 1957
October 1949 - July 1953
Months
Bu
sin
ess
Cyc
les
111+
U.S. Expansions Duration
Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research and ATA
65
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Ave
rage
GD
P G
row
th (
%)
Months
U.S. Expansions by Strength & Duration(1949 to Current)
Current US Expansion
Real Gross Domestic Product Growth
2.7%
2.2%
1.5%
2.3%
2.9%2.8%
2.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Avg 2000-2007 Avg 2010-2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Sources: BEA & ATA
The Drivers of Truck Freight, Plus Inventories
Sources: BLS, Census, and Federal Reserve
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Unemployment Rate(Percent)
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Total Housing Starts(Millions)
98
100
102
104
106
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Factory Output(Index)
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Inventory to Sales Ratio
Job Market
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Monthly Job Changes(Thousands)
Sources: BLS & ATA
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Unemployment Rate(Percent)
2016 2017 2018 2019
4.9% 4.4% 3.9% 3.5%
Previous 12-month avg:201,400
Sep: lowest level since Dec 1969
U.S. Economy is at Full-Employment
Sources: Department of Labor
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Tho
usa
nd
s
Unemployed and Job Openings
Unemployed Job Openings
Employment Costs:Wages & Salaries
3.2%
1.8%
2.3%2.4%
2.6%
3.1%
3.4%3.5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Avg 2000-2007 Avg 2010-2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Sources: BLS & ATA
Single-Family Housing Starts Will Continue Their Upward Climb
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Total Housing Starts(Monthly; Annualized Rate; Millions)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
H.S. 1.18 M 1.21 M 1.28 M 1.37 M 1.45 M
Sources: Census & ATA
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Single-Family vs Multi-Family Units(Monthly; Annualized Rate; Millions)
Single-Family
Multi-Family
Factory Output is Stronger, But Outlook Recently Downgraded
90
95
100
105
110
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Factory Output(Index)
Sources: Federal Reserve & ATA
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Factory Output(Year-over-Year Percent)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Output -0.7% 1.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.0%
Source: Census Bureau
Total Business Inventory-to-Sales Ratio(Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not price changes)
Likely Optimal Range
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Freight Market
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
Total For-Hire TL LoadsIndex: January 2010=100; 3-Month Moving Average
Includes Dry Van, Flatbed, Temp Controlled, and Tank Truck
95
100
105
110
115
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
For-Hire Truckload Loads Growth
0.1%
3.0%
6.0%
5.4%
0.8%
2.1%
6.4%
7.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2016 2017 Q4 2017 YOY Jan-Jul 2018 YOY
Total TL
Dry Van
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
2016 2017 Q1 2018 Jan-Jul 2018
Dry Van 0.8% 2.1% 5.7% 7.2%
Temp Controlled -0.3% 5.0% -0.1% -8.8%
Flatbed 5.2% 1.3% -8.7% -6.1%
Tank Truck 0.0% -2.8% -3.2% -3.9%
Short-Haul(<500 miles) 1.5% 2.4% 2.8% 3.4%
Long-Haul(>1,000 miles) 1.7% 7.8% 6.1% 4.1%
For-Hire Truckload Loads
Year-Over-Year Growth
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
Total For-Hire TL MilesIndex: 2010=100; Seasonally Adjusted; 3-Month Moving Average
Includes Dry Van, Flatbed, Temp Controlled, and Tank Truck
90
95
100
105
110
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
Dry Van Truckload Average Length-Of-Haul Continues to Fall
For-Hire Truckload Revenue
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Revenue(Index; 2015=100)
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Revenue(Year-over-Year Percent)
Excludes FSC Revenue
2016 2017 Q1 2018 Jan-Jul 2018
Dry Van -4.4% 0.7% 15.1% 20.5%
Temp Controlled -5.2% 4.8% 13.8% 14.6%
Flatbed -0.2% 2.0% 9.1% 11.5%
Tank Truck -0.6% 0.7% 3.3% 5.6%
Short-Haul(<500 miles) -0.5% 3.5% 18.1% 23.4%
Long-Haul(>1,000 miles) -18.2% 15.8% 8.8% 15.2%
For-Hire Truckload Revenue
Year-Over-Year Growth
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
Excludes FSC Revenue
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
LTL TonnageIndex: 2010=100; 3-Month Moving Average
125
130
135
140
145
150
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
LTL Tonnage Growth
1.7%
1.0%
3.8% 3.9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2016 2017 Q4 2017 YOY Jan-Jul 2018 YOY
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
U.S. Bank Quarterly Trucking Freight Payment Indexes
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Shipments(Index; 2015=100)
Source: U.S. Bank
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Spend(Index; 2015=100)
Industry Capacity Remains Very Constrained
Source: ATA’s American Trucking Trends 2018 & ACT Research
US Retail Class 8 Truck Sales
Includes Tractors & Straight Trucks
Thousands
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: ACT Research
US Active Population Class 8 Truck Age
Includes Tractors & Straight Trucks
Years
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
20-year average
Source: Census Bureau
US Class 8 Tractor ExportsUnits
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
20-year average
* 2018 is a YTD annualized rate
Top Importers of U.S. Used Tractors
28%
25%13%
10%
5%
19%
2007
Russia Mexico NigeriaCanada Panama Others
25%
19%
14%
10%
6%
26%
2017
Mexico Vietnam Guatemala
Nigeria Canada Others
-5.0%
5.1%
-5.0%
-0.2%
-1.5%-0.6%
-7.0%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
Large TLs Small TLs
2016
2017
2018 YTD
Small Fleet: Less than $30 million in annual revenue
For-Hire TL Tractor Changes: Large vs Small Fleets
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
Includes company tractors and independent contractor equipment
2018 data is through July
For-Hire Truckload Tractor Data
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Company & I.C. Power Units(Year-over-Year Percent)
Large TL
Small TL
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
Large TLs: Company Tractors vs Independent Contractor EquipmentIndex: January 2017=100
95
100
105
2017 2018
Company
I.C.Trough to Peak: +3.6%
Peak to Trough: -3.9%
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
Small TLs: Company Tractors vs Independent Contractor EquipmentIndex: January 2017=100
95
100
105
2017 2018
Company
I.C.
Trough to Peak: +3.2%
Peak to Trough: -2.5%
LTL Truck Counts(Index: 2015 = 100)
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
90
95
100
105
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 2017 2018
2018 YTD +0.1% over same period in 2017
2016 2017 Q1 2018 Jan-Jul 2018
Dry Van -3.4% 0.1% 16.0% 18.5%
Temp Controlled 1.6% 3.4% 9.5% 13.1%
Flatbed -3.0% 2.3% 10.9% 11.7%
Tank Truck -1.7% 4.5% 12.8% 16.5%
Short-Haul(<500 miles) -0.6% 2.0% 16.6% 18.2%
Long-Haul(>1,000 miles) -15.4% 3.7% 12.3% 13.6%
LTL 1.4% 0.0% 5.2% 6.5%
For-Hire TL & LTL Pricing Proxies
Year-Over-Year Growth
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
Truckload: Average Revenue per MileLTL: Average Revenue per TonExcludes FSC Revenue
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Includes Dry Van, Flatbed, Temp Controlled, and Tank TruckExcludes Fuel Surcharges
For-Hire Truckload Revenue per Mile
Year-Over-Year Growth
The Driver Situation Remains Very Difficult
Source: ATA
98% 96% 95% 93%
81%
87%
96% 98%
82%79%
90%
79% 78% 79%
73% 72%
9% 11% 11% 11% 9% 9%12% 14%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H 2018 Q2 2018
Large TL Small TL LTL
Truck Driver Turnover Rates
All rates are annualized
10 Million CDL Holders
3.5 Million “Truck” Drivers
1.7 Million Heavy &Tractor-Trailer Drivers
870,000 For-Hire Trucking Heavy &
Tractor-Trailer Drivers
The driver shortage is primarily an over-the-road for-hire truckload issue. So how many drivers are in that space?
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
Based on government data, ATA estimates that there are roughly 500,000 OTR for-hire TL drivers.
Driver Shortage
Source: ATA’s Truck Driver Shortage Analysis 2017
51,000
400420
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Manufacturing Construction For Hire Trucking
Jobs Created by Industry Since January 2017Thousandsof Jobs
Source: Department of Labor
ATA Driver Compensation Study
Source: ATA’s 2017 Driver Compensation Study
WHAT ELSE CAN BE DONE?
• DRIVE-Safe Act• Improve driver efficiency/driving time – Reduce
driver waiting times• 8,500/month to 9,000 = 5.9%• 8,500/month to 9,500 = 11.8%
• Female Drivers
The Long-Run Looks Good Too
Growth in TonnageTotal Increase from 2018 to 2029
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
2018 2029
Source: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2029
Pipeline, 134%
Air, 37%
Rail Intermodal, 35%Trucking, 27%
Waterborne, 16%
Rail Carload, 5%
2029
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