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  • 8/9/2019 State and Opportunity of Broadband in India v1.0

    1/22

    State and Opportunity of

    Broadband in India

    In this paper we will present the state and opportunity of broadband in Asias

    most promising and fastest growing economy and worlds second largest

    wireless market only after China.

    BP Tiwariwww.beyond4g.org

    4/20/2010

    http://www.beyond4g.org/http://www.beyond4g.org/http://www.beyond4g.org/
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    2 State and Opportunity of Broadband in India

    www.beyond4g.org | Executive Summary 2

    Table of ContentsExecutive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 4

    Introduction and motivation ......................................................................................................................... 5

    Current shape of broadband in country ....................................................................................................... 6

    Broadband leadership Ranking ................................................................................................................. 6

    Broadband Penetration in India ................................................................................................................ 8

    Average Broadband Speed in Country ...................................................................................................... 9

    The principal Challenges ............................................................................................................................. 11

    Limited Wire line ..................................................................................................................................... 12Scarce Broadband Spectrum ................................................................................................................... 13

    Low Data ARPU ....................................................................................................................................... 13

    Broadband opportunities ............................................................................................................................ 15

    4G can change broadband situation ....................................................................................................... 15

    Deliver a GB for half a dollar ................................................................................................................... 17

    Deliver new internet applications with 4G ............................................................................................. 18

    Support of large connections in 4G cells ................................................................................................ 18

    A need for strong national broadband policy ............................................................................................. 19

    Government can influence the broadband situation ............................................................................. 19

    Taking India to top 10 broadband nations .............................................................................................. 22

    DISCLAMER

    This paper is prepared by BP Tiwari and the views expressed here are my own and does not

    reflect my company opinion. All the information is presented in this document were collected from public

    domain (internet) & wherever possible reference has been provided regarding the source of information.I have made reasonable efforts to ensure that information is true as best of my knowledge at the time of

    compilation, however I do not warrant that the information presented herein is complete and without

    error. Author of the paper does not take any responsibility of the errors, omissions, or any other accuracy

    in any form. I encourage readers to independently verify information as author does not have any

    responsibility of the presented information & content.

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    3 State and Opportunity of Broadband in India

    www.beyond4g.org | Executive Summary 3

    List of Figures

    Figure 1 : Broadband quality scores.............................................................................................................. 6

    Figure 2 : Broadband leadership scores ........................................................................................................ 7

    Figure 3 : Broadband penetration ................................................................................................................. 8

    Figure 4: Total Internet connections in country .......................................................................................... 8

    Figure 5 : Reliance Ev-Do Coverage .............................................................................................................. 8

    Figure 6 : Tata Ev-Do Coverage .................................................................................................................... 9

    Figure 7: BSNL Ev-Do Coverage .................................................................................................................... 9

    Figure 8 : Average mobile broadband speeds in metros cities ................................................................... 10

    Figure 9 : Distribution of speed tests .......................................................................................................... 10

    Figure 10 : Average National Broadband Speeds ....................................................................................... 11

    Figure 11 : GDP based on PPP per capita .................................................................................................... 11

    Figure 12: Indicative right of way charges .................................................................................................. 12

    Figure 13: Capex per subscriber .................................................................................................................. 12

    Figure 14: India Spectrum allocation chart ................................................................................................. 13

    Figure 15: Global Data ARPU ...................................................................................................................... 14

    Figure 16: Data ARPU of global operators .................................................................................................. 14

    Figure 17: Average Data Packages in India ................................................................................................ 14

    Figure 18: Global Broadband Tariffs ........................................................................................................... 15

    Figure 19: Total Subscriber supported per 4G cell ..................................................................................... 16

    Figure 19: Spectral efficiency of various technologies ............................................................................... 16

    Figure 20: Broadband delivery cost over 4G............................................................................................... 17

    Figure 21: Peak Data Rate in Different MIMO Configurations. .................................................................. 18Figure 23: Broadband and Internet users in India ...................................................................................... 19

    Figure 24: Projected additional spectrum requirement for India............................................................... 20

    Figure 25: Present right of way charges ..................................................................................................... 21

    Figure 26: New Telecom World Order ........................................................................................................ 22

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    4 State and Opportunity of Broadband in India

    www.beyond4g.org | Executive Summary 4

    Executive Summary

    Its been a dreamrun for voice in India. Indiapositions itself as number two nation in new

    world order. However the broadband

    leadership is dominated by Southkorea, Japan,

    Hongkong, Sweden, Switzerland, Netherlands,

    Singapore, Luxemburg, Denmark and Norway.

    India ranked 62 in global broadband leadership

    scale, with average download and upload

    speeds recorded way below than the needs of

    current internet applications. The current

    internet visual applications require consistent

    2Mbps downlink and 1 Mbps uplink data rates.

    In our analysis we found that the average

    broadband speed in country is below 600 kbps

    in downlink and 300 kbps in uplink. The leading

    broadband nations were found above 8 Mbps in

    downlink and 2.5 Mbps in uplink and the access

    latencies were found below 80 milliseconds1.

    Broadband penetration by number of

    households was estimated between 5 to 6 %.

    The availability of broadband networks hasespecially improved after beginning of Ev-Do

    services in country. The mobile broadband

    networks were deployed in top 100 cities by

    four wireless operators i.e. Reliance, TATA,

    BSNL and MTS.

    The data collected from Ev-Do Networks in five

    metro cities imply average delivery of 300 kbps

    in downlink and 150 kbps in uplink. On

    average, Hyderabad performed best with 250-

    350 kbps average download speed and 100-125

    kbps average upload speed and New Delhi was

    at the bottom with 240 kbps for download and

    130 kbps for upload.

    1Cisco,

    http://www.cisco.com/web/MT/news/09/news_021

    009a.html

    The number of broadband connections incountry is less than 10 Million, which is fewer

    than 2 % of the total number of voice

    subscriptions in India. Total internet

    connection in India is about 15 Million as per

    statistics released by regulatory of India,

    representing less than 1% of total population.

    The principal challenges in delivering

    broadband to masses are excessively high right

    way charges, fragmented cable operators, non

    cooperation in last mile copper unbundling

    and low data ARPU. The total amount ofspectrum allocated by regulators for broadband

    application in country was too little to support

    proliferation of broadband services.

    The new 3G/BWA spectrum and the advent

    WiMAX and LTE based 4G technologies will

    play crucial role in shaping broadband industry

    in India. Our analysis in this paper exemplifies

    the competence of 4G technologies like WiMAX

    and LTE to deliver broadband in most

    competitive manner. 4G technologies has thepotential to bridge the digital data gap in India

    and will play very similar role what 2G

    technologies played in Voice.

    A need for strong national broadband policy is

    felt to foster social and economic development

    in India and accomplish broadband leadership.

    Analysis presented in the paper estimates

    allocation of at least 270 MHz of new spectrum

    in next five years and over 450 MHz of

    spectrum in next 10 years for broadband

    applications would be inevitably required to

    take India to top broadband nations.

    http://www.cisco.com/web/MT/news/09/news_021009a.htmlhttp://www.cisco.com/web/MT/news/09/news_021009a.htmlhttp://www.cisco.com/web/MT/news/09/news_021009a.htmlhttp://www.cisco.com/web/MT/news/09/news_021009a.htmlhttp://www.cisco.com/web/MT/news/09/news_021009a.html
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    Introduction and motivation

    Broadband is the great wireless infrastructure

    challenge of this century and broadband inIndia is no exception. Like electricity a century

    ago, broadband is an underpinning foundation

    for economic development, employment

    creation, universal competitiveness and an

    enhanced way of life.

    Availability of ubiquitous broadband enables

    entire new industry and unlocks vast new

    possibilities for existing ones. Broadband is

    changing how we educate children, deliver

    health care, manage energy, ensure public

    safety, engage government, and access,

    organize and disseminate knowledge. The

    number of Indians who have internet access has

    grown from eight million in 2006 to nearly 15

    million in early 2009. Increasingly capable fixed

    and mobile networks allow Indian consumers to

    access a growing number of internet

    applications and helping them in transforming

    their life.

    It is unfortunate that broadband in India is not

    all it needs to be. Less than 5 % of thehousehold population in India has true

    broadband connection in country and more

    than a billion people has limitation in accessing

    broadband. This in contrast with the number of

    subscriber who has voice connection is

    enormous disparity. Broadband in India is

    catching up but behind many developing

    countries and developed nations.

    The situation of broadband has worsened

    further with continual delay in allocation of 3Gand broadband spectrum in country.

    Government of India has the responsibility to

    design policies which will ensure fair

    competition for consumer welfare, efficient

    allocation of spectrum, right of way to ensure

    network availability and reform laws, policies,

    standards and incentives to maximize the

    benefits of broadband in sectors government

    influences significantly, such as public

    education, health care and government

    operations.

    In this paper we will present the state of

    broadband in Asias most promising and fastest

    growing economy and worlds second largest

    wireless market only after China.

    The greatest motivation to write on this

    particular subject is to present the shape of

    broadband in the country and also give you an

    idea about the broadband opportunity which is

    latent in the country. With advent of 4G

    technologies like WiMAX/LTE and allocation ofnew broadband spectrum in country, the

    development of broadband is expected to grow

    up at a rapid rate.

    In this white paper, we will present all aspects

    of broadband in India with our analysis and

    suggestions to take country in to the league of

    top broadband nations.

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    6 State and Opportunity of Broadband in India

    www.beyond4g.org | Current shape of broadband in country 6

    Current shape of broadband in

    country

    It is been generally understood that broadbandproliferation is linked to social and economic

    benefits and that countries with high

    broadband availability have broadband on their

    national agenda.

    A recent study by University of oxford, and

    Cisco established the fact that high broadband

    penetration drives innovation, labor

    productivity and competitiveness. The Study

    also focused on the minimum performance

    requirement for current broadband connections

    and found that 28 to 30 countries are meeting

    the requirement of current internet

    applications.

    In 2009, new insight into who the global

    broadband leaders are by combining data for

    each countrys broadband penetration with a

    measure of the quality of broadband services

    actually experienced by its citizens was

    conducted by a team of MBA students from the

    Sad Business School at the University of Oxford

    and the University of Oviedos Department ofApplied Economics, and sponsored by Cisco was

    published2.

    Highlights and key facts of the study;

    Overall average broadband quality

    increased across the globe in 2009: Global

    average download throughput increased by

    49% to 4.75 Megabits per second (Mbps)

    and global average upload throughput

    increased by 69% to 1.3 Mbps.Global average latency decreased by 21% to

    170 milliseconds

    Top 10 nations on terms of Broadband quality

    are;

    2CISCO and Said;http://bit.ly/dm5RH7

    Figure 1 : Broadband quality scores

    Rank Country Broadband

    penetration(%

    of household)

    Broadband

    quality

    Score 2009

    1 South Korea 97% 66

    2 Japan 64% 64

    3 Hong Kong 99% 33

    4 Sweden 69% 57

    5 Switzerland 90% 40

    6 Netherlands 83% 46

    7 Singapore 96% 32

    8 Luxemburg 99% 27

    9 Denmark 82% 45

    10 Norway 84% 38

    62 India 3% 20

    Broadband leadership Ranking

    There is a huge leapfrog opportunity in India

    and other emerging markets as per the findings

    of the studies3. The minimum average

    downloads speed for supporting requirement ofcurrent application was estimated at 3.75 Mbps

    in downlink and 1.3 Mbps in uplink with latency

    in the range of sub 100 milliseconds in 2010.4

    The broadband leadership was dominated by

    Southkorea, Japan, Hongkong, Sweden,

    Switzerland, Netherlands, Singapore,

    Luxemburg, Denmark and Norway. The average

    download speeds of these nations were found

    above 8 Mbps in downlink and 2.5 Mbps in

    uplink and the access latencies were found

    below 80 milliseconds.

    4

    3Cisco,

    http://www.cisco.com/web/MT/news/09/news_021

    009a.html

    http://bit.ly/dm5RH7http://bit.ly/dm5RH7http://bit.ly/dm5RH7http://www.cisco.com/web/MT/news/09/news_021009a.htmlhttp://www.cisco.com/web/MT/news/09/news_021009a.htmlhttp://www.cisco.com/web/MT/news/09/news_021009a.htmlhttp://www.cisco.com/web/MT/news/09/news_021009a.htmlhttp://www.cisco.com/web/MT/news/09/news_021009a.htmlhttp://bit.ly/dm5RH7
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    7 State and Opportunity of Broadband in India

    www.beyond4g.org | Current shape of broadband in country 7

    39 countries have a Broadband quality scores

    above the threshold required to deliver a

    consistent quality of experience for the most

    common web applications today, such as social

    networking, streaming low-definition video,web communications and sharing small files

    such as photos and music.

    Nine countries, South Korea, Japan, Sweden,

    Lithuania, Bulgaria, Latvia, The Netherlands,

    Denmark and Romania, were found to have the

    broadband quality required for future web

    applications, such as high definition Internet TV

    viewing and high-quality video communications

    (such as home tele-presence) that will become

    mainstream in the next 3 to 5 years.

    India ranked 62 in global broadband leadership

    scale with average download and upload speeds

    way below the threshold of current internet

    applications requirement. Broadband

    penetration by number of households was

    estimated at 5 to 6 %

    Figure 2 : Broadband leadership scores5

    5Said Business School ,

    http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/Pages/Search.aspx/Results.

    aspx?k=broadband%20quality

    0 50 100 150

    South Korea

    Japan

    Hong Kong

    Sweden

    switzerland

    Netherlands

    Singapore

    Luxembourg

    Denmark

    Norway

    Malta

    Iceland

    Australia

    Lithuania

    United States

    Ireland

    Canada

    France

    Estonia

    Belgium

    FinlandSlovenia

    Tiawan

    Latvia

    United Kingdom

    Baharain

    Germany

    United Arab Emirates

    Romania

    New Zealand

    Spain

    Qatar

    Portugal

    Italy

    Greece

    Turkey

    Russian Federation

    Poland

    Chile

    Mexico

    Argentina

    Malaysia

    China

    Saudi Arabia

    Ukraine

    Brazil

    Phillippines

    Thailand

    Vietnam

    Morocco

    Pakistan

    South AfricaIndia

    Indonesia

    Egypt

    Nigeria

    BB Leadership

    http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/Pages/Search.aspx/Results.aspx?k=broadband%20qualityhttp://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/Pages/Search.aspx/Results.aspx?k=broadband%20qualityhttp://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/Pages/Search.aspx/Results.aspx?k=broadband%20qualityhttp://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/Pages/Search.aspx/Results.aspx?k=broadband%20qualityhttp://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/Pages/Search.aspx/Results.aspx?k=broadband%20quality
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    8 State and Opportunity of Broadband in India

    www.beyond4g.org | Current shape of broadband in country 8

    Figure 3 : Broadband penetration

    Broadband Penetration in India

    Broadband penetration in India is about 6 % of

    total household which has improved more than

    3% as compared to similar period in 2008.

    Wireless technologies in last one year have

    facilitated in expanding coverage footprint and

    availability of mobile broadband networks in

    India. By far the largest network is CDMA based

    Ev-Do Rev A, and after the launch of Rev A

    networks in country, the coverage penetration

    has increased to 6% .

    Over 75% of the internet connections in the

    country are facilitated by state controlled

    operator BSNL/MTNL6.

    Figure 4: Total Internet connections in country

    The coverage of broadband networks has

    especially improved after beginning of Ev-Do

    services in country. The Ev-Do based mobile

    broadband networks were deployed in top 100

    cities by four wireless operators i.e. Reliance,

    TATA, BSNL and MTS. The coverage is mostly

    limited to city centers or areas high inbroadband potential; nevertheless it has higher

    reach as compared to wire line deployments.

    Figure 5 : Reliance Ev-Do Coverage 7

    6BP Tiwari;http://www.beyond4g.org/india-

    wireless-market-update-2h-2009

    0 50 100 150

    South Korea

    Japan

    Hong Kong

    Sweden

    switzerland

    NetherlandsSingapore

    Luxembourg

    Denmark

    Norway

    Malta

    Iceland

    Australia

    Lithuania

    United States

    Ireland

    Canada

    France

    Estonia

    Belgium

    FinlandSlovenia

    Tiawan

    Latvia

    United Kingdom

    Baharain

    Germany

    United Arab Emirates

    New Zealand

    Spain

    Bulgaria

    Qatar

    Austria

    Portugal

    Italy

    Greece

    HungaryTurkey

    Russian Federation

    Mexico

    Argentina

    Malaysia

    China

    Saudi Arabia

    Ukraine

    Brazil

    Colombia

    Tunisia

    Phillippines

    Thailand

    Vietnam

    Morocco

    Pakistan

    South Africa

    India

    Indonesia

    Egypt

    Kenya

    Nigeria

    Global Broadband Penetration

    http://www.beyond4g.org/india-wireless-market-update-2h-2009http://www.beyond4g.org/india-wireless-market-update-2h-2009http://www.beyond4g.org/india-wireless-market-update-2h-2009http://www.beyond4g.org/india-wireless-market-update-2h-2009http://www.beyond4g.org/india-wireless-market-update-2h-2009http://www.beyond4g.org/india-wireless-market-update-2h-2009
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    9 State and Opportunity of Broadband in India

    www.beyond4g.org | Current shape of broadband in country 9

    Figure 6 : Tata Ev-Do Coverage 8

    State owned largest operators BSNL has Ev-DO

    network in 76 cites.

    Figure 7: BSNL Ev-Do Coverage 9

    However the potential of broadband

    development is massive as several of topbroadband nations like South Korea, Japan,

    HongKong, Sweden, Switzerland, Netherland,

    Singapore, Luxembourg, Denmark, Norway,

    7Reliance; http://bit.ly/cSeSP5

    8Tata ;http://bit.ly/dwkHj9

    9BSNL;http://bit.ly/aVsjou

    Malta, Iceland, Australia, Lithuania, United

    States, Ireland, Canada, France, Estonia and

    Belgium has achieved broadband penetration

    over 80% of their household as compared to 6%

    in India.

    Average Broadband Speed in

    Country

    Country has deployment of ADSL, Fixed WiMAX,

    Metro E and other wire line broadband

    technologies but those wire-line technologies

    are not enough in extending coverage to large

    number of households due to deployment

    challenges as presented in next section of thepaper. Our internal studies indicate that

    country lacks the minimum required broadband

    threshold speed to support the growing

    demand of internet applications. In contrast, 39

    countries have average download speeds above

    3.75 Mbps and 1.3 Mbps in uplink as presented

    in Figure 9. The average broadband speed in

    India was recorded less than 600 Mbps in

    downlink in 2009 as compared to global

    average of 4.75 Mbps in 2009.

    The leading broadband nations like Japan,

    South Korea, Sweden, Netherland and

    Switzerland have average downlink speeds of

    10 Mbps and above. Broadband connections of

    these countries are capable of supporting

    future web applications, such as high definition

    Internet TV viewing and high-quality video

    communications (such as home tele-presence)

    that will become mainstream in the next 3 to 5

    years.

    Russia, Germany, UK, Tiawan, Canada, US,

    Norway, Denmark, Singapore, HonkKong,

    France has average download speeds of 5Mbps

    and above.

    Wireless technologies are playing an imperative

    role in delivering broadband to underserved

    areas but their capability to deliver faster

    http://bit.ly/cSeSP5http://bit.ly/cSeSP5http://bit.ly/dwkHj9http://bit.ly/dwkHj9http://bit.ly/dwkHj9http://bit.ly/aVsjouhttp://bit.ly/aVsjouhttp://bit.ly/aVsjouhttp://bit.ly/aVsjouhttp://bit.ly/dwkHj9http://bit.ly/cSeSP5
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    10 State and Opportunity of Broadband in India

    www.beyond4g.org | Current shape of broadband in country 10

    speeds are limited by available technology,

    spectrum and other parameters. To give our

    readers an idea of their capability to deliver

    broadband we have collected data from

    different cities to show achievable speeds. Thespeeds can vary depending on the time of the

    day, technology used, traffic conditions,

    topology, etc.

    In the collected samples across different

    metros, we found that the average speeds were

    on the lower end as compared to their

    announced10 values with average measured

    download and upload speed was 300 kbps and

    150 kbps. The download speed touched as high

    as 650 to 700 kbps while the upload speedtouched 460 kbps with Ev-Do networks

    recording the highest peaks on non busy hour

    period.

    The results varied by Device/city/route/ time of

    day. On average, Hyderabad performed best

    with 300-350 kbps average download speed

    and 100-125 kbps average upload average

    speed and New Delhi was at the bottom with

    240 kbps for download and 130 kbps for

    upload.

    Figure 8 : Average mobile broadband speeds in

    metros cities

    10Peak Data ;http://bit.ly/dwkHj9

    There were occasional peaks observed while

    collecting data. The download speeds reached

    as high as 650 to 700 kbps while the upload

    speeds touched 460 kbps with Ev-Do networks

    recording the highest speeds on non busy hourperiod. Data throughput presented above was

    averaged for number of samples over time.

    Figure 9 : Distribution of speed tests

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    Average Download Average Upload

    0

    24

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    050

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    550

    600

    650

    Frequency%

    Kbps

    Speed Tests ( Ev-Do ), Mumbai

    http://bit.ly/dwkHj9http://bit.ly/dwkHj9http://bit.ly/dwkHj9http://bit.ly/dwkHj9
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    11 State and Opportunity of Broadband in India

    www.beyond4g.org | The principal Challenges 11

    Figure 10 : Average National Broadband Speeds

    The principal Challenges

    The economy of India is one the fastest growing (in

    terms of GDP) & is the twelfth11 largest economy in

    the world by market exchange rates and the fourth

    largest by purchasing power parity (PPP) basis.

    Figure 11 : GDP based on PPP per capita

    The last mile (connecting end-users to service

    providers), except in top 100 cities is primarily

    non-existent in country. In metro cities, copper

    cabling is available which can support lower

    variants of DSL such as ADSL2. More than 90%

    of the countrys urban copper network is ownedby incumbents such as BSNL and MTNL

    (Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited) and was

    deployed for telephony purposes. Multi-tenant

    unit (MTU) type homes have implied large

    distances of the order of 1000+ feet from the

    nearest POP, thereby limiting the use of

    advance variants of DSL such as VDSL which can

    give 10 Mbps or so of connectivity. DSL (Digital

    Subscriber Line) remains the most widely used

    technology to deliver broadband Internetservices. For those tier 1 and tier 2 cities

    without copper infrastructure, some initial

    deployments of Fixed WiMAX, Ev-Do Rev A,

    MMDS and other wireless broadband

    11Wikipedia

    0 5 10 15 20 25

    South Korea

    Japan

    Hong Kong

    Sweden

    switzerland

    Netherlands

    Singapore

    Luxembourg

    Denmark

    Norway

    Malta

    Australia

    United States

    Canada

    Tiawan

    United Kingdom

    Germany

    New Zealand

    Mexico

    Malaysia

    China

    Russia

    Brazil

    Phillippines

    Thailand

    South Africa

    IndiaIndonesia

    Nigeria

    Average Download speeds

    Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) per capita GDP

    0.00

    500.00

    1,000.00

    1,500.00

    2,000.00

    2,500.00

    3,000.00

    3,500.00

    4,000.00

    4,500.00

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) per capita GDP

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
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    12 State and Opportunity of Broadband in India

    www.beyond4g.org | The principal Challenges 12

    technologies has started appearing as a

    alternative to wireline.

    Our analysis points to the following key factors

    which is prohibiting use of broadband in India.

    Wire line last mile domination by PSE

    incumbents & Local Cable Operators

    (LCOs)

    LCO market which control the cable last

    mile is highly fragmented with over

    100,000+ LCOs across the country

    The current cable TV network is Arial and of

    low quality, backed with the lack of

    organization makes it difficult to upgrade be

    used for reliable broadband lines.Lack of strong national broadband policy to

    support low and more uniform rental rates

    for access to poles and reduce cost of right

    of way charges to enable deployment of

    wire line in country.

    Numerous delay in allocating necessary

    spectrum to support wireless broadband

    deployments in India.

    Limited Wire line

    The prevalent challenge in the country is to

    deliver broadband at affordable tariffs.

    Exorbitantly high hight of way charges and lack

    of necessary attention from government bodies

    has prohibited buried DSL penetration in

    country as compared to other nations.

    Figure 12 represents right of way charges in top

    metro cities of the country. To make business

    case of broadband appealing alternative modelsof deployment like Arial fiber and copper were

    also experimented in top cities of the country

    where exorbitantly high right of way charges

    prohibited buried copper for residential

    consumers.

    Figure 12: Indicative right of way charges

    Other factors which have worsened situation of

    broadband is non cooperation to unbundle thelast mile local copper from state owned

    operators like BSNL and MTNL who controls

    more than 90% of the last mile copper in

    country.

    Whether we like it or not, excessively highright way charges, fragmented cable operators,

    non cooperation in last mile copper unbundling

    and low data ARPU has made operators in India

    to realize, that Wireless is the most effectiveway to provide affordable broadband to

    masses in country.

    Figure 13: Capex per subscriber

    90000

    40000 5000030000

    20000

    ROW (Per Km) US$

    800

    240

    1200

    500

    0200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    Capex per Sub(60

    Active)

    Capex per

    Sub(150 Active)

    US$

    WiMAX DSL

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    Scarce Broadband Spectrum

    The amount of spectrum allocated for

    broadband application in country is really

    narrow as compared to other nations. The only

    spectrum which was allotted to operators was

    in the band 3.3 GHz for broadband MMDS and

    LMDS. Each operator assigned nearly 6 MHz

    TDD or FDD spectrum in 3.3 GHz.

    The 3.3 GHz spectrum suffers from high path

    loss and poor indoor coverage. Deploying a

    nationwide wireless broadband networks is this

    spectrum would require substantially high

    capex as compared to sub 2 GHz spectrum.Poor indoor characteristic of 3.3GHz has made

    most of the deployments fixed in nature. Fixed

    3.3GHz WiMAX/MMDS in country is providing

    connectivity to SME and enterprise customers.

    The other spectrum allocated for broadband

    applications was in 10.15 to 10.65 GHz for

    LMDS technology. The 3G and BWA spectrum is

    under auction process and should be available

    very shortly for operators to deploy new

    wireless data networks. Our analysis advocatesthat the total amount of spectrum made

    available for 3G and Broadband wireless access

    systems is way too low to support countrys

    data demand.

    Figure 14: India Spectrum allocation chart

    FREQUENCY ALLOCATION

    452.5-457.5 &

    462.5-467.5

    MHz

    5+5 MHz for cellular mobile,

    particularly for rural areas (not yet

    allotted)

    824-844 & 869-

    889 MHz

    Cellular mobile

    890-915 & 935-

    960 MHz

    Cellular mobile (only parts of this

    band allotted)

    1710-1785 &

    1805-1880

    MHz

    Only parts of this band, for cellular

    mobile

    1850-1910 &

    1930-1990

    MHz

    Part of this band being investigated

    for potential allocation to cellular

    mobile

    1880-1900

    MHz

    Micro cellular systems TDD

    1920-1980 &

    2110-2170

    MHz

    IMT-2000 (3G) FDD mode (still to be

    allocated 3 to 4 slots to be

    auctioned)

    2010-2025MHz

    IMT-2000 (3G) TDD mode (still to beimplemented)

    2.4-2.4835 GHz EIRP 4W over 10+ MHz (250

    mW/MHz) Delicenced (WiFi)

    2.535-2.655

    GHz

    Indian satellite applications, LMDS

    and MMDS

    2.7-2.9 GHz Available for MMDS if protection

    ensured for Aeronautical radio

    navigation, location services

    3.3-3.4 GHz Broadband MMDS, LMDS

    5.150-5.350 &

    5.725-5.875

    GHz

    Max EIRP 200 mW (10 mW/MHz)

    Delicenced

    5.470-5.725

    GHz

    Indoor and outdoor wireless access

    (incl. RLAN) Max EIRP 1W (50mW/MHz)

    10.15-10.65

    GHz

    Broadband LMDS

    24.5-26.5 &

    27.5-29.5 GHz

    Broadband LMDS, MMDS (High

    capacity only LoS systems)

    Low Data ARPU

    For some leading operators, data is nowcontributing over 40% of the overall revenues.

    However increase in data ARPU is not

    completely offsetting the drop in voice ARPU

    for most operators. From the true and tested

    SMS messaging to the new services such asMobile Advertising, Social Networking,

    Commerce, Mobile Wallet, and others, different

    services helped in adding billions to the

    revenues generated in 2009.

    US, Japan, Australia and Singapore continue to

    lead in data ARPU.

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    Figure 15: Global Data ARPU

    Most of the major operators around the worldhave double digit percentage contribution to

    their overall ARPU from data services.

    Operators like DoCoMo, and Softbank are over

    44%. KDDI, 3 Australia, 3 Italy, 3 UK, Vodafone

    UK, O2 UK, KTF, Telstra, and 3 Sweden

    exceeded 30% and many others are on the

    verge of crossing the 30% mark. Indian

    operators Bharti , Vodafone and reliance are

    improving data revenues and today stand at 10

    % mark12. India operators data ARPU from

    wireless services is less than 1 US$.

    Figure 16: Data ARPU of global operators

    12Chetan ,http://bit.ly/dt5R0T

    We collected samples of different broadband

    operators to calculate average data

    consumption of broadband in country. It was

    found that an average connection in country isconsuming around 3-5 gigabytes per month and

    corresponding revenue is around US $ 12.

    Figure 17: Average Data Packages in India

    The utmost challenge in the country is to deliver

    broadband at affordable prices. Current

    broadband fee in India is already moving

    towards some of the most competitive prices

    around the globe and operators are increasingly

    finding enormous challenge in delivering data at

    current prices levels while meeting the growingdemand of new internet visual applications.

    The observed median average price of

    broadband in different countries is presented

    below to give the standpoint of challenging13

    broadband delivery cost in India. The prices

    presented below are the median price of lowest

    and highest observed tariff in that country.

    13OECD ;http://bit.ly/drA5AN

    0

    10

    20

    30

    1 Gig 3 Gig 5 Gig 10 Gig

    Average ARPU

    http://bit.ly/dt5R0Thttp://bit.ly/dt5R0Thttp://bit.ly/dt5R0Thttp://bit.ly/drA5ANhttp://bit.ly/drA5ANhttp://bit.ly/drA5ANhttp://bit.ly/drA5ANhttp://bit.ly/dt5R0T
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    Figure 18: Global Broadband Tariffs

    Broadband opportunities

    4G can change broadband situation

    The role of WiMAX and LTE based broadband

    technologies is pivotal in shaping broadband

    industry in India.

    Our analysis illustrates that 4G technologies like

    WiMAX and LTE has the potential to deliver

    broadband in reasonable cost and performance

    to India consumers.

    In this Section, we will present why 4G

    technologies has the potential to change the

    broadband situation in country.

    To present our case, we will consider four main

    segments of the addressable market forbroadband wireless access in India. In each

    market segment, the number of BWA

    customers for each service provider per cell

    is projected from the population density

    represented by the number of households and

    SOHO (small/home offices) per sq km. In this

    analysis, we thus do not consider multiple

    customers per household. It is also noted that

    we only calculate the capacity requirements

    and the population that needs to be served in a

    cell, we do not address the coverage issues and

    techniques needed to deal with null spaces if

    any between sectors in the cell, as our main

    idea is to present the case of 4G technologies

    and its suitability to deliver affordable

    broadband in country.

    Dense urban

    Cell Radius 250 Meters

    Households 8000 per SQ/Km

    Subs/Cell 9753 SPs 325 customers/SP/Cell Site

    Urban

    Cell Radius 400 Meters

    Households 3000 per SQ/Km

    Subs/Cell 936

    3 SPs 312 customers/SP/Cell Site

    Sub UrbanCell Radius 700 Meters

    Households 1000 per SQ/Km

    Subs/Cell 955

    3 SPs 318 customers/SP/Cell Site

    Rural

    Cell Radius 2 Kilometers

    Households 150 per SQ/Km

    Subs/Cell 1170

    3 SPs 390 customers/SP/Cell Site

    To compare the subscriber capacity which

    needs to be supported by technologies like

    WiMAX and LTE , following parameter were

    considered to simulate the case of Dense

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    US$

    Median Price of BB

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    Urban, Urban , Suburban and Rural

    demographys.

    3 Sector Cell sites

    Typical download speed of 1 Mbps

    4G spectral efficiency ( 1.6 Bits/Hz/Sec)

    20 Mhz of Spectrum per service

    provider ( Total 3 Service Provider)

    Monthly data consumption : 6 GB/Mo

    Busy hour 1.6 times

    From Figure 19, it is easy to distinguish that

    with a total capacity of 52 Mbps/cell, a service

    provider can support 1350 Connections per cell

    for an average 6 GB/Month usage taking busy

    hour traffic in consideration. With data doubling

    every year as per the forecast from Cisco VNI

    Index14, service providers will exhaust their cell

    capacity in third year and their consumers

    monthly data consumption will reach around 12

    gigabyte in a month.

    Figure 19: Total Subscriber supported per 4G cell

    The amount of bandwidth a service provider

    has to license to support a desired total

    capacity, depends on the spectral efficiency

    14Cisco VNI;http://bit.ly/nqdf

    achieved by the technology (standard) chosen.

    Gradually WiMAX and LTE will shift to their next

    evolution by the time India operators come

    across difficult situation of maintaining service

    levels to IMT-Advanced based systems like 16m

    or LTE A to support the their need of growing

    mobile data .

    Our analysis supports that WiMAX and LTE

    based technologies will support mobile data

    requirement for first three years and later it can

    be upgraded to IMT advanced based systems to

    support the growing need of mobile data.

    Alternatively operators can also add more radio

    carrier to support their capacity requirement or

    install more capacity cell sites.

    Figure 19: Spectral efficiency of various

    technologies

    It is worthy to note some of the much recent

    data trends form CISCO VNI Index which were

    captured in collaboration with 20 leading

    Internet service providers and according to

    Cisco, average broadband connection

    generated 11.4 gigabytes of Internet traffic per

    month, or 375 megabytes per day in Q3, 2009.

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    6 Gig

    /Mo

    12

    Gig/Mo

    18

    Gig/Mo

    24

    Gig/Mo

    30

    Gig/Mo

    NumberofSubscribers

    Subscriber supported in 4G cell

    Support required per cell ( DU)0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    HSPA

    Rel 6

    HSPA

    Rel 7

    WIMAX

    16e

    LTE Rel

    8

    LTE A 16M

    0.5

    0.8

    1.4 1.5

    2.4 2.4

    0.30.5

    0.7 0.8

    1.9 2

    DL Spectral Efficieny UL Efficiency

    http://bit.ly/nqdfhttp://bit.ly/nqdfhttp://bit.ly/nqdfhttp://bit.ly/nqdf
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    The average monthly download traffic reported

    in clearwire and Yota WiMAX network is around

    7 and 10 Gigabytes per month.

    Clearly the mobile data traffic is growing fast

    and availability of necessary amount of

    spectrum to support the need of growing

    mobile data traffic is the key to maintain

    proliferation of broadband in country.

    Improvements in technology will also play an

    important role in bridging the gap in digital

    dividend. The key to success in Indian

    broadband story will largely depend on

    necessary amount of spectrum andadvancement in 4G Technologies.

    Deliver a GB for half a dollar

    The biggest challenge for operators in India is to

    deliver a Gigabyte of mobile data in less than

    half a dollar. It was always difficult to deliver

    data over wire line media at such cutthroat

    prices. 4G technologies like WiMAX and LTE has

    come close in their ability to deliver broadband

    data at very affordable prices and has the

    potential to reach half a dollar for a gigabyte of

    data. The main reason attributed to delivery of

    affordable broadband data over 4G

    technologies is;

    Higher spectral efficiency ( 2-3 times

    improved as compared to their 3G

    counterparts)

    New and more economical broadband

    spectrum as against to their cellular

    counterparts( 2.3, 2.5 and 3.5)

    Availability of bigger chunks of spectrum (

    20 to 40 MHz)

    Flat architecture reducing protocols and

    network elements

    Balanced IPRs which will allow competitive

    devices.

    Figure 20: Broadband delivery cost over 4G

    MIMO and bigger chunks of spectrum is the key

    to deliver data at competitive and affordable

    prices. The amount of data that can be

    delivered over wireless systems becomes

    double with growing number of multiple

    antenna chains. The theoretical peak data rates

    that can be supported in 20 Mhz of spectrum

    can achieve data rate well above 300 Mbps with

    4x4 MIMO systems. We envisage evolution of

    MIMO systems to play an important role in

    shaping Indian broadband wireless industry.

    With Similar amount of spectrum, the peak cell

    site data rate for different MIMO configuration

    is presented below to emphasize the weight of

    MIMO systems in shaping India broadband

    wireless systems. Data presented here is based

    on 2 , 4 and 8 layer spatial multiplexing.

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    Figure 21: Peak Data Rate in Different MIMO

    Configurations.

    Deliver new internet applications

    with 4G

    It is expected that a 10MHz 4G system will

    averagely achieve between 2000 7500 (kbps)

    which is 2-3 times higher as compared to 3G

    systems.

    Figure 22: Date throughput vs. Coverage

    A 20 MHz FDD 4G systems based on LTE or

    WiMAX 16m would averagely deliver data rates

    of 2000-12500(kbps) to the consumers.

    As per Cisco the current visual application s

    requires average connection speed of anywhere

    above 2 mbps in downlink to support most of

    the applications over internet. Needless to say,

    the availability of higher speeds in the networks

    for consumers will only improve more rapid

    adoption and usage.

    Support of large connections in 4G

    cells

    One of the larger interests from the 4G

    technology is to support minimum of 500

    concurrent connections, as wireless medium

    will become the primary source of data delivery

    in country. In our earlier analysis we found that

    a minimum support of 450 to 500

    simultaneously connections will be required per

    cell site to deliver the need of urban

    population in country.

    The current release of WiMAX can support up

    to 300 active and 600 non active consumers and

    LTE will support at least 1200 consumers percell site in 20 MHz channel profile. The support

    of higher number of active subscribers in 4G

    technologies is crucial to keep the capex low.

    To summarize , we believe that 4G technologies

    has the potential to bridge the digital gap in

    India and will play the vital role in shaping

    broadband situation in country.

    4G technologies has 2-3 times higher

    spectral efficiencies and capability to

    support bigger channel bandwidths which

    will allow delivery of over a GB data for less

    than a dollar.

    4G technology can be scaled up to support

    the growing mobile data

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    10 MHz peak

    2x2 MIMO

    4X4 MIMO

    8X8 MIMO

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    4G technologies have the capability to

    deliver consistent data throughputs to

    support the needs of visual applications.

    Over 500 broadband subscribers can be

    supported in a single 4G cell site.

    4G architecture is flatter and has balanced

    IPRs which will allow delivery of broadband

    at least possible value.

    A need for strong national

    broadband policy

    Like electricity a century ago, broadband is a

    foundation for economic growth, job creation,

    global competitiveness and a better way of life.

    It is enabling entire new industries and

    unlocking vast new possibilities for existing

    ones. It is changing how we educate children,

    deliver health care, manage energy, ensure

    public safety, engage government, and access,

    organize and disseminate knowledge.

    Fueled primarily by investment from private

    and public sector and innovation, the Indian

    broadband ecosystem has is growing rapidly.

    The number of Indians who has broadband at

    home has grown from two million in 2006 to

    nearly 8 million last year. The latest deployment

    of Ev-Do network by four operators has allowed

    Indians to access a growing number of valuable

    internet applications through innovative devices

    in larger locations.

    Figure 23: Broadband and Internet users in

    India

    But, broadband in India is at a nascent stage.

    Approximately 1 Billion Indians does not have

    broadband at home. Broadband-enabled health

    information technology (IT) can improve care

    and lower costs by hundreds of billions of

    dollars in the coming decades, yet India is

    behind many advanced countries in the

    adoption of such broadband technologies.

    Government can influence the

    broadband situation

    Government can influence the broadband

    ecosystem in many ways;

    1. Ensuring efficient allocation and use ofgovernment-owned assets

    Spectrum: Broadband spectrum is a majorinput for providers of broadband services.

    Currently, the Government of India has set

    aside 60 megahertz of spectrum for BWA

    applications which will be auctioned shortly.

    This spectrum is just a fraction of the amount

    that will be necessary to match growing

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    1012

    14

    16

    Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09

    Broadband connections Internet Users

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    demand. More efficient allocation and

    assignment of spectrum will reduce deployment

    costs, drive investment and benefit consumers

    through better performance and lower prices.

    Our analysis foresees that government of India

    will require at least 450 to 600 MHz of new

    spectrum in next decade to support the

    broadband requirement of country. As wireless

    will become the predominant way of

    broadband delivery in country and hence the

    availability of adequate spectrum is even more

    important for India.

    To draw from our analysis, we have projectedmobile data growth trends of internet traffic

    measured from CISCO VNI index and other

    operators with best know spectral efficiencies

    from 4G systems taking 10 years into

    consideration.

    Projected mobile data traffic considers busy

    hour data traffic requirement and also look

    forward to factors that large amount of wireless

    data will be offloaded to wi-fi and wire-linenetworks in next 10 years.

    Figure 24: Projected additional spectrum

    requirement for India

    Spectrum analysis summary;

    Make 450 megahertz of spectrum newly

    available for broadband within 10 years, of

    which 270 megahertz should be made

    available for mobile use within five years.

    Reframe 2G spectrum for more flexible use.

    More unlicensed spectrum: Expand

    opportunities for innovative spectrum

    access models by creating new avenues for

    opportunistic and unlicensed use of

    spectrum and increasing research into new

    spectrum technologies.

    Infrastructure: Infrastructure such as poles,

    conduits, rooftops and rights-of-way play an

    important role in the economics of broadband

    networks. Ensuring service providers can access

    these resources efficiently and at fair prices can

    drive upgrades and facilitates competitiveentry.

    The current right of way chargers are

    exorbitantly high. If government can maintain

    low ROW charges for broadband networks, it

    will have direct impact on delivery of

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    2010 2015 2020

    Mobile Data in Handsets

    Broadband Data( BWA ,Laptops)

    Year Handsets Internet

    centric

    devices

    2010 6 MB/H 20 MB/H

    2015 48 MB/H 173 MB/H

    2020 366 MB/H 1500 MB/H

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    broadband services and will allow delivery at

    affordable levels.

    Figure 25: Present right of way charges

    Summary of infrastructure;

    Establish low and more uniform rental

    rates for access to poles, and simplify the

    process for service providers to attach

    facilities to poles.

    Improve rights-of-way management for

    cost and time savings, promote use of

    government facilities for broadband,

    expedite resolution of disputes and identify

    and establish best practices guidelines for

    rights-of-way policies.

    Facilitate efficient new joint infrastructure

    construction and allowing joint deployment

    of broadband infrastructure.

    Other Initiatives

    Create mechanisms to ensure affordability to

    low-income Indians: Creating incentives for

    universal availability and adoption of

    broadband.

    Ensure all Indian have the opportunity to reap

    the benefits of the broadband. All Indians

    should have access to broadband service with

    sufficient capabilities, all should be able to

    afford broadband and all should have the

    opportunity to develop digital literacy skills to

    take advantage of broadband. This should

    include creating broadband funds to accelerate

    deployment of broadband in country,

    2. Promote polices and incentives forbroadband adoption.

    Health care: Help ensure health care providers

    have access to affordable broadband and create

    incentives for adoption by expanding

    reimbursement for e-care.

    Education: Provide and improve the

    connectivity to schools, libraries and accelerate

    online learning by enabling the creation of

    digital content and learning systems, removing

    regulatory barriers and promoting digital

    literacy.

    Economic opportunity: Support broadbandservices and applications to drive job creation,

    growth and productivity gains. Also expand

    opportunities for job training and placement

    through an online platform.

    Public safety: Support deployment of a

    nationwide, interoperable public safety mobile

    broadband network in next 10 years.

    90000

    4000050000

    3000020000

    ROW (Per Km) US$

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    Taking India to top 10 broadband

    nations

    Its been a dream run for voice in India. India

    positions itself as number two nation in new

    world order.

    Figure 26: New Telecom World Order

    Our data story has been lacking for number of

    reasons which was also talked earlier

    throughout the paper.

    We have listed top 10 items if done properly,

    will take India into top10 broadband nations.

    1. We need a strong national broadbandpolicy now focusing on making India top

    broadband nations and polices consistent

    towards that goal.

    2. Ensure at least 270 MHz of spectrumavailability in next five years and over 450

    MHz of new spectrum in coming decade.

    3. Allocation of more unlicensed spectrum toenable delivery of broadband in affordable

    way.

    4. Use of 4G technologies for broadbanddelivery would be most efficient way of

    broadband delivery in India.

    5. Government should establish low and moreuniform rental rates for access to poles and

    reduce cost of right of way charges to

    enable broadband deployments in country.

    6. Government should facilitate efficient new joint infrastructure construction and allow

    joint deployment of broadband

    infrastructure.

    7. If possible, a little amount of broadbandspectrum should be allocated free of cost to

    operators with obligation of deployingnationwide broadband network to have

    higher broadband penetration in country.

    8. Creating incentives for universal availabilityand adoption of broadband in country.

    9. Ensuring availability of low cost broadbandaccess devices to masses.

    10.Operators will have to continuouslyInnovate in delivering new services,

    improving network efficiencies and in

    keeping broadband delivery cost asminimum as possible.