Starting climate policies early in order to reach long-term climate targets is... as cumbersome

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Starting climate policies early in order to reach long-term climate targets is... as cumbersome yet as neccessary ...as getting out of bed early enough to climb a mountain. following C. Schr (2003). Where do we want to go?. Malti-gas emission profiles to mitigate dangerous climate change. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Starting climate policies early in order to reach long-term climate targets is... as cumbersomeyet as neccessary ...as getting out of bed early enough to climb a mountain following C. Schr (2003)

  • Malti-gas emission profiles to mitigate dangerous climate change. Malte Meinshausen, malte.meinshausen@env.ethz.ch, 17. February 2004, RIVM

    Photo courtesy Leila Mead, IISD.ca; Where do we want to go? IntroductionMethodsLimitations Results

  • IntroductionA work-in-progress reportObjective: Multi-gas emission profiles to limit global mean temperatures, radiative forcing, CO2 concentrations etc. Possible methods for non-CO2: one size fits allscaling to (fossil) CO2source-specific reduction potentials for all gases (IMAGE)cost-optimisations (TIMER/FAIR)and ...The multi-gas meta approach motivation: Peaking and temperature related profilesDealing consistently with non-CO2 gasesBuilding on pluralism of existing work to derive a continuous set of mitigation profiles

  • Methods I: World per-capita emissions

  • Methods II: The distribution of possible emission levels

  • Methods III: Going along equal percentiles

  • Methods IV: Overview

  • LimitationsThrowing garbage in a blender?Underestimation of non-CO2 / landuse reduction potentials?

  • LimitationsThrowing garbage in a blender?Underestimation of non-CO2 / landuse reduction potentials? Comparison with IMAGE EMF21 profiles shows rough consistency for non-CO2 gases despite lack of fully elaborated scenarios in the underlying pool of scenarios.Or blending everything into garbage? Not respecting anti-correlations in scenarios? Ranking correlation analysis

  • Limitations II: Ranking Correlations~0~0>0>0>0>0>0

  • LimitationsThrowing garbage in a blender?Or blending everything into garbage?Not respecting anti-correlations in scenarios? Ranking correlation analysis Does the methodology assume a certain probability of the underlying SRES scenarios? Yes, but robust to different probabilities.

  • Results / Found againMulti-gas CO2 scenarios have substantially less overall forcing. Comparison CO2-only WRE450 and multi-gas S450C.

  • Results / Found againMulti-gas CO2 scenarios have substantially less overall forcing. Comparison CO2-only WRE450 and multi-gas S450C. Under default assumptions, to stay below 2C requires, atmospheric concentrations to peak below 420 ppmv CO2 or 490 ppmv CO2 equivalence

  • Results II: Comparison to long-term pledges

  • Results II: Comparison to long-term pledges

  • Results II: Comparison to long-term pledges

  • Results II: Comparison to long-term pledges

  • Results II: Comparison to long-term pledges

  • Results II: Comparison to long-term pledges

  • Results II: Comparison to long-term pledges

  • Results II: Comparison to long-term pledges

  • Results II: Comparison to long-term pledges

  • Results II: Comparison to long-term pledges

  • Results II: Comparison to long-term pledges

  • Results II: Comparison to long-term pledges

  • Results II: Comparison to long-term pledges

  • Results / Found againMulti-gas CO2 scenarios have substantially less overall forcing. Comparison CO2-only WRE450 and multi-gas S450C. Under default assumptions, to stay below 2C requires, atmospheric concentrations to peak below 420 ppmv CO2 or 490 ppmv CO2 equivalenceLong-term pledges of EU countries roughly consistent with derived emission reduction necessities for Annex I countries (Sweden/UK pledges for 2050 on the higher end, though)

  • Looking forward to another 3 months here... Thanks!

    Multi-gas pathways to mitigate dangerous climate changemalte.meinshausen@ethz.ch, 17th February 2004Multi-gas pathways to mitigate dangerous climate changeMultigas emission profiles to mitigate dangerous climate change. malte.meinshausen@ethz.ch, 17th February 2004

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