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Starcom Media Futures 2013 forecast
February 2013
•As seen in previous years, media executives are less optimistic about budget growth when compared to advertisers (1.2% and 1.7% respectively), overall a modest year of growth is predicted
•While advertisers use FTA TV most often, mobile and online IPTV look set for growth in the coming year, and substantial growth is expected for search (with an estimated investment growth of 14.5%)
•In the coming year, ROI measurement using ad awareness tracking is expected to increase
•Online and Cinema executives are buoyant about revenue growth for their own channels
•Key predicted growth areas among media executives are government, automotive and telecommunications, whereas expected revenue for the food and FMCG sectors has dropped substantially since 2012
Executive summary
Advertisers’ perspective
Advertisers predicted budget change (Actual vs. CPI) In 2013 advertisers have further downgraded their estimates for advertising spend
9.3 8.7
1.2
4.9
7.3
4.6 5.2 5.6
7.3
-2.4
5.3 6.0
3.8
1.7
14.5
-9.3
-1.3
9.7
13.8
7.8
3.1
9.4
3.3
-8.0
10.9
1.4
6.1
2.9 3.0 2.6 2.3 3.0
3.9
1.9
5.0
1.3
3.1 3.4 2.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Futures Advertiser predicted budget change (%)
Actual CEASA national advertising change (%)
CPI city weighted % increase
NB: The advertiser estimates exclude ‘don’t know’ responses and high/low extremes which would have skewed the results. Projections are
unweighted and do not take into account advertisers’ current media spend
Mid-year update results – ATL budget changes Similar to 2011, advertisers were over optimistic in their ad growth estimates for 2012
5.3 6.8
6
2.2 3.8
1.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010
predicted
(end of 2009)
2010 mid-
year update
Column2 2011
predicted
(end of 2010)
2011 mid-
year update
Column3 2012
predicted
(end of 2011)
2012 mid-
year update
NB: The mid-year update figures are made up of actual growth rates for the first half of the year, combined with predicted growth rates for the second half of
the year
ATL media used over 2012 While online display is used by most advertisers, primary FTA TV is used most often by almost two thirds
92%
89%
86%
81%
78%
74%
71%
67%
62%
56%
30%
26%
16%
7%
5%
64%
14%
3%
3%
3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Online - Display / banner
Online - Search
Primary free-to-air television channels
Newspapers
Secondary free-to-air television channels
Radio
Magazines
Pay TV / subscription TV
Out of home
Online - Mobile
Cinema
Online or IPTV
Other Media used in 2012
Media used most often in 2012 Base – Total advertiser sample
Q: Which of the following above the line media has your company used for advertising in 2012?
Q: Which above the line media have you used most during 2012 for your advertising campaigns?
ATL media used – 2011 vs. expected for 2012 More advertisers predict they will use mobile and online/IPTV in 2013
92%
89%
86%
81%
78%
74%
71%
67%
62%
56%
30%
26%
16%
89%
88%
85%
73%
70%
68%
70%
62%
53%
62%
23%
37%
20%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Online - Display / banner
Online - Search
Primary free-to-air television channels
Newspapers
Secondary free-to-air television channels
Radio
Magazines
Pay TV / subscription TV
Out of home
Online - Mobile
Cinema
Online or IPTV
Other Media used in 2012
Media expect to use in 2013 Base – Total advertiser sample
Q: Which of the following above the line media has your company used for advertising in 2012?
Q: Which above the line media are you planning on using for your advertising in 2013?
Estimated budget changes by major media Online search is expected to see a huge increase in spend, along with mobile and IPTV
3.8 1.2
2.9 0.3
-0.9
6.6
10.6
6.5
0.6
-1 -3.1 -4.7
-0.4
1.7 0.7 1.4 1.8
7.5
14.5
9.4 11.6
2.1
-3.2 -1.4
-2.9
2.9
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25 2012 expected change 2013 expected change
(%)
Base – Total advertiser sample
Q: By what percentage do you expect your total above the line advertising spending to increase or decrease across all above the line
media in 2013 compared to 2012?
Below the line media used over 2012 Almost three quarters of advertisers used PR followed by two thirds using POS activations
74%
67%
63%
63%
58%
58%
49%
44%
40%
38%
29%
25%
22%
19%
15%
10%
10%
17%
10%
6%
19%
12%
3%
14%
1%
3%
1%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Public relations
POS
Sponsorship
Internet email / viral email
Addressed direct mail
Sales promotions
Exhibitions
Event marketing
Unaddressed catalogues
Sponsor driven programming / branded content
SMS campaigns
Internet - mobile
Telemarketing
Unaddressed direct mail
Addressed catalogues
Direct sales (Door to door)
Media used in 2012
Media used most often in 2012
Base – Total advertiser sample
Q: What types of below the line activities has your company used to deliver your marketing communications or advertising in 2012?
Q: What type of below the line activity have you used most during 2012 for your marketing communications and advertising campaigns?
Below the line media used – 2012 vs. expected for 2013 PR remains the number one channel predicted to be used in 2013, BTL activity through mobile is expected to increase
74%
67%
63%
63%
58%
58%
49%
44%
40%
38%
29%
25%
22%
19%
15%
10%
74%
63%
64%
60%
58%
58% 41%
44%
33%
34%
29%
32%
16%
16%
11%
11%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Public relations
POS
Sponsorship
Internet email / viral email
Addressed direct mail
Sales promotions
Exhibitions
Event marketing
Unaddressed catalogues
Sponsor driven programming / branded content
SMS campaigns
Internet - mobile
Telemarketing
Unaddressed direct mail
Addressed catalogues
Direct sales (Door to door)
Media used in 2012
Media intend to use in 2013
Base – Total advertiser sample
Q: What types of below the line activities has your company used to deliver your marketing communications or advertising in 2012?
Q: Which below the line activities will you use for your marketing communications and advertising in 2013?
Expected ROI activity for the coming year Use of ad awareness tracking for ROI measurement is expected to increase in the coming year
91% 86% 89% 90%
81% 77%
71% 71%
87%
78% 71%
46%
66% 67% 67% 71%
62% 63% 68%
77% 76%
61% 57%
63% 67%
7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Market share/ sales Brand awareness tracking Primary research
Ad awareness tracking Statistical sales/ KPI modelling Online tracking or traffic/web input*
Base – Total advertiser sample who are likely to measure any ROI metrics
Q: What specific return on investment metrics are you likely to measure to inform you on any advertising or marketing campaigns?
*Added for the 2013 report onwards
Expected greater management pressure in the coming year Meeting overall company objectives (the big picture) is predicted to become the most important in 2013
64
76 71
60 55
34 35
6
72 76
67 60 63
33 37
14
74 81
72
59 51
42
27
1
73
86
75 69
59
36 44
2
86 82
71 68 64
40 40
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Base – Total advertiser sample
Q: In which of these areas are you expecting greater pressure from management during 2013
Issues which may cause a change in media agency Innovation/strategy/lack of cultural alignment as well as fees are the top reasons for a change in media agency
2008 for 2009 2009 for 2010 2010 for 2011 2011 for 2012 2012 for 2013
(Average out of 5)
Media strategy not innovative enough 4.2 4.1 4 3.5 3.7
Strategic planning not adequate 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.4 3.7
Fees and charges too high 3.9 4 3.9 3.6 3.7
Lack of cultural alignment* NA NA 3.6 3.3 3.7
Account service not up to scratch 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.5
Management directive (i.e.. global merger) 3 3.4 3 2.6 2.9
New staff / management (advertiser or agency side)* NA NA 3.1 2.6 2.7
Budget pressure 3.1 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.6
Disappointing sales results 3 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.6
Slower economy 2.3 2.4 2.2 2 2.2
Need for a new campaign 2.7 2.6 2.4 1.9 2.1
Approach from another agency 1.9 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.9
Need for a change 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.9
*These issues were added in the 2010 for 2011 wave
Base – Total advertiser sample
Q: I am now going to read a list of issues that might cause you to change your media agency. Please rate each issue on a scale of 1 to 5
Media executives’ perspective
Media executives predicted revenue changes (vs. actual and CPI) Media executives have also downgraded their revenue changes for the coming year
5.7
4.0
-1.1
3.0
6.0 6.6
3.2 3.8
5.9
1.0
4.6 5.9
1.7 1.2
14.5
-9.3
-1.3
9.7
13.8
7.8
3.1
9.4
3.3
-8
10.9
14.5
2.9 3.0 2.6 2.3 3.0
3.9
1.9
5.0
1.3 2.8 3.4
2.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Futures Media Exec. Predicted Budget Change (%)
Actual CEASA National Advertising Change (%)
CPI City Weighted % Increase
NB: The media executives estimates exclude ‘don’t know’ responses and high/low extremes which would have skewed the results. Projections are
unweighted and do not take into account media executives’ current revenue
Changes in media revenue by channel Metro. TV and Cinema executives are most optimistic about market revenue growth in the coming year while mag. execs are predicting a negative change
1.7
5.6 6.0 5.7 7.1
5.2 3.0
5.1 8.0
5.0
1.2 2.5 2.2 1.6 0.5 0.0
-2.7
0.7 1.1 3.0
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25 2012 expected change 2013 expected change
Base: Total media executives sample
Q: What percentage change in advertising spend do you anticipate for the total advertising market across all media during the calendar year of 2013 versus 2012?
Changes in media revenue for own channel Online and Cinema executives are most optimistic in relation to growth for their own channels
6.4 4.8
10.3
6.1 4.6
1.0
7.4
21.0
7.0
2.1 1.5
9.2
1
-1
-5
3.9
14.2 15
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
FTA - metro FTA - reg. STV Radio Newspapers Mags OOH Online Cinema
2012 expected change 2013 expected change
Base: Total media executives sample (base sizes vary across each channel, interpret with caution)
Q: What percentage change in advertising spend do you expect for your medium during the calendar year of 2013 versus 2012?
Importance of revenue attributes In 2013, clients who invest as part of integrated campaigns remains one of the most important revenue attributes to media executives
2008 for 2009 2009 for 2010 2010 for 2011 2011 for 2012 2012 for 2013
(Average out of ten)
Clients that invest as part of integrated campaigns 7.9 8.6 8.4 8.9 8.4
Agencies that will place larger value contracts 8.8 8.2 8.4 8.4 8.4
Clients with new product introductions 8.1 8.5 8.6 8.3 8.4
Clients with stable bookings 8.5 7.7 8.1 8.7 8.1
Clients not previously advertisers 8 8.7 8.4 8.3 8.0
Clients with significant spending during low revenue periods 8.8 7.8 7.9 8.2 8.0
Direct relationship with clients rather than through an agency 8.4 8.2 8 8.4 7.8
Base: Total media executives sample
Q: Thinking about 2013, how would you rate the following revenue attributes in terms of importance to you?
Changes in revenue from primary and secondary TV channels Expected revenue changes for secondary channels is moving into line with primary channels
40%
77% 100%
73%
46%
18% 18% 13% 5% 9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Primary channel
2012
Primary channel
2013
Column2 Secondary
channels 2012
Secondary
channels 2013
Increase Remain the same Decrease
Base – TV executives
Q: Compared with 2012, do you think your station’s revenue from its primary channel will increase or decrease in 2013?
Q: And compared with the current year, do you think your station’s revenue from its secondary channels will increase or decrease next year?
Change in revenue for video on demand All TV media executives predict their VOD revenue will increase in the coming year
87% 100%
13%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2012 2013
Increase Remain the same
Base – TV executives excluding those who provided a ‘don’t know’ response
Q: Thinking now about video on demand for your network, are you expecting an increase or decrease in revenue from this platform in 2013
Revenue changes for each time slot (covers entire channel suite) Sports/special events and peak times are expected to see the most growth
86%
52% 33% 33%
90%
14%
48%
48% 52%
10% 19% 14%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Peak times Fringe-night times Weekday daytime Weekend daytime Sports and special
events
Increase Remain about the same Decrease
Base – TV executives excluding those who provided a ‘don’t know’ response
Q: Compared with 2012, do you think your station’s revenue across your entire suite of channels for each of the following time slots will
increase or decrease in 2013?
% Revenue changes for each time slot (covers entire channel suite) The biggest increase in revenue is expected to come from sports and special events
6.5
3.6 3.8 3.3
6.0
12.8
3.5 4.8
2.6
10.6
4.7 2.4
-0.9
0.4
8.8
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Peak times Fringe-night times Weekday daytime Weekend daytime Sports and special
events
2011 expected change
2012 expected change
2013 expected change
Base – TV executives excluding those who provided a ‘don’t know’ response
Q: Compared with 2012, what percentage increase/decrease in revenue do you project for your station in 2013 for each of the following
time slots?
Performance of other media Mobile is expected to perform better by just under 8 in ten media advertisers
11%
28%
9% 4% 6%
23%
42%
79%
23% 31%
2%
40%
60%
55%
12% 10%
49%
51%
21%
73% 51%
23%
49%
11%
36%
79% 84%
26%
5% 5%
16%
58%
4% 2% 2% 2% 17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Better than expected Same as expected Worse than expected Can't say
Base – Media executives who do not represent each channel above
Q: Now thinking about other media, how do you think each of the following media will perform in 2013 compared with 2012?
Revenue changes across industries Government, Auto. and Telco industries are expected to generate the largest revenue increases
67%
62%
62%
56%
38%
37%
37%
31%
31%
25%
25%
19%
15%
15%
12%
31%
19%
40%
40%
33%
48%
54%
65%
58%
38%
63%
58%
62%
19%
6%
13%
12%
29%
10%
6%
2%
10%
35%
10%
19%
21%
2%
2%
6%
4%
10%
2%
6%
10%
2%
8%
2%
8%
8%
2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Government
Automotive
Telecommunications
Finance
Dot.com
Retail
Information technology
Pharmaceuticals
Entertainment
Alcohol and beverages
FMCG
Travel and accommodation
Real estate
Food
Increase
No change
Decrease
Cant say
Base: Total media executives sample
Q: Are you anticipating an increase, decrease, or no change in advertising from the following industries?
Revenue changes across industries YOY expected spend on FMCG and food has halved, travel and accommodation has also dropped since last year
63%
59%
55%
51%
51%
45%
43%
41%
39%
39%
35%
33%
31%
27%
67% 62%
62%
56%
25%
37%
38%
31%
31%
19%
25%
37%
15% 15%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Government
Automotive
Telecommunications
Finance
FMCG
IT
Dot com
Pharmaceuticals
Entertainment
Travel and accommodation
Alcohol and beverages
Retail
Food
Real estate
Predicted to increase (2012)
Predicted to increase (2013)
Base: Total media executives sample
Q: Are you anticipating an increase, decrease, or no change in advertising from the following industries?
Research background Starcom MediaVest has commissioned annual surveys among advertisers and major media groups since 1985
The interviews are conducted using telephone and online methodologies, with the fieldwork and data currently
provided by McNair Ingenuity Research. The fieldwork is conducted during November and December; the sample
structure is detailed below
Advertisers are selected each year from the top 600 National Advertisers based on total above-the-line
advertising spend. For the 2012 for 2013 survey, 73 national advertisers were included in the study
53 senior media executives were surveyed across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth, across
regional and metropolitan markets. Main media executives from the free-to-air television, subscription
television, newspaper, magazine, radio, out-of-home, cinema and internet channels participated in the current
study
All results are compiled on the basis of one value for each interview, with no weighting according to either the
size of the advertisers’ budget or media billings
