Maine's Experience Working with an Emerging Framework

Becky NoréusJustice Policy ProgramUSM Muskie School of Public Service October 28, 2010

1

10/28/2010

Recognizing the importance of recidivism as a measure of success, the Council for Juvenile Correctional Administrators (CJCA), with Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency (OJJDP) support, developed 3 goals of recidivism research:1. Reduce re-offending2. Increase support for evidence-based programs3. Support continuous quality improvement efforts

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service 2

10/28/2010

“All across the country, juvenile justice agencies are judged to be successful or not based on recidivism rates…”

Stoodley, B. (2010). To Measure or not to Measure? The Recidivism Dilemma’. American Correctional Association.

Recidivism is a standard measurement without standardized definitionso This limits national research and complicates comparisons or

replications of studies

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service 3

10/28/2010

Current practices in recidivism measuremento Recent published state recidivism reportso CJCA state survey data/CJCA Yearbook 2009o Current practices in evaluation research

Recommendations o Guide for recidivism research

Harris, P.W., Lockwood, B., & Mengers, L. (2009). A CJCA White Paper: Defining and Measuring Recidivism.

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service 4

10/28/2010

Snyder and Sickmund(2006 p. 234)

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service 5

10/28/2010

Probation/Paro

leViolatio

n

Petition (not on survey)

Arrest Petition or

Arrest

Adjudication

JuvenileCommitme

nt

Adult Commitme

nt

Other Multiple Measure

s

State Surveys (40)

7.5%(3)

5%(2)

28%(11)

28%(11)

48%(19)

48%(19)

45%(18)

60%(24)

Evaluations (53)

17%(9)

60.4%(32)

22.6%(12)

69.8%(37)

30.2%(16)

3.8%(2)

1.9%(1)

17%(9)

43.4%(23)

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service

6

10/28/2010

<1 Year

1 Year

1.5 Year

s

2 Years

3 Years

> 3 Years

AverageMAXIMU

M Follow-up

Varied Other Multiple Follow-

up

State Surveys

(40)

15%(6)

60%(24)

5%(2)

37.5%(15)

37.5%(15)

15%(6)

2.2 years*

7.5%(3)

7.5%(3)

35%(14)

Evaluations (53)

20.8%(11)

34%(18)

7.5%(4)

24.5%(13)

5.7%(3)

18.9%(10)

2.6 years 34%(18)

1.9%(1)

28.3%(15)

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service

7

10/28/2010

15 Standards for measuring recidivismo Specificity, clear definitions, o Multiple measures, o Youth offenses, characteristics

Three levels of data 1. Counts - Overall recidivism rate2. Population and offense detail – compare groups3. Risk assessment, program involvement – program evaluation

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service 8

10/28/2010

Selection Criteria: First Adjudicated supervised youthData sources: MDOC’s CORIS (juvenile and some adult), MDPS (adult tracking)Tracking period: Three years from first adjudication dateRecidivism Event: Re-adjudication (juvenile)/re-conviction (adult)Timeframe: Date of re-offense datePopulation characteristics: gender, age, race, countyOffense Characteristics: Number, most serious class, most serious type - at first and second adjudicationRisk Levels – YLS-CMIThree years of data: 2006-2008 cohorts

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service 9

10/28/2010

Targeting population o Currently track supervised first adjudicated youth o Discharged youth extract recently finalizedo Commitments and diversions

Standardso Definition of supervision, including release dateo Specific risk items

Processes o Finalizing extracts - ongoingo Tracking to adult – case by case

Program data

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service 10

10/28/2010

2006 2007 2008 Percent Change

N % N % N %First Adjudicated youth 1480 1.1% 1258 0.9% 1246 0.9% -15.8%

Total Youth (ages 10-17)* 138,680 135,478 131,238 -5.4%

First adjudicated youth, 1%

Maine's youth population ages

10-17, 99%

First adjudicated youth as a percentage of total population, 2006-2008 average per year

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service

*Source =-OJJDP Easy Access to Juvenile Populations 1990-2008

11

10/28/2010

825736

656

1480

1258 1246

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2006 2007 2008

Supervised Total First Adjudicated YouthBecky Noréus – Muskie School of Public

Service12

10/28/2010

‘Average’ first adjudicated youth:o One offenseo Property o Misdemeanor

Populationo Minorities increasingly

representedo Boys more common

than girlso Average age remains

about 16, BUT fewer of youngest youth (under 14)

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service

13

10/28/2010

2006 2007 2008

Recidivated 174 21.1% 195 26.5% 143 21.8%

Did not recidivate 654 79.3% 541 75.5% 513 78.2%

Total 825 100% 736 100% 656 100%Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public

Service 14

21.10%

26.50%21.80%

2006 Cohort 2007 Cohort 2008 Cohort

10/28/2010

0.8% 2.1%4.5%

9.0%12.6%

19.0%

26.9%30.0%

13.5%

21.1%

31.4%

39.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Six MonthsOne Year Two Years Three YearsAdult Re-Conviction Juvenile Re-AdjudicatedTotal Recidivists

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service 15

10/28/2010

20.1%

26.2%22.2%

36.0%

29.8%

18.2%

2006 Cohort 2007 Cohort 2008 Cohort

White Minority

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service

16

10/28/2010

20.7%

24.7%

17.6%

24.3%

29.3%26.5%

2006 Cohort 2007 Cohort 2008 Cohort

PersonalProperty

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service 17

10/28/2010

DJS policy: 100% of supervised youth administered YLS-CMI within the timeframe of 180 prior to 30 days post 1st

Adjudication

2006 2007 2008

YLS Completed 644 555 517

Total First Youth and Placed under supervision

825 736 656

YLS Completion Rate 78.6% 75.4% 78.8%

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service

YLS-CMI Completion rates, 2006-2008

18

10/28/2010

Guides case planningo High risk youth

benefit from higher level of supervision

Identify which youth are more likely to recidivate

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service

19

33.1% 29.7% 39.7%

54.0% 58.2% 47.8%

12.9% 12.1% 12.6%

2006 Cohort 2007 Cohort 2008 Cohort

Low (0-8) Moderate (9-22)High (23-42)

10/28/2010

8.5%12.7% 14.1%

27.9%32.2%

26.3%24.1%

38.8%

32.3%

2006 Cohort 2007 Cohort 2008 Cohort

One Year Recidivism Rate Trends by Risk Level, 2006-2008 cohorts

Low (0-8) Moderate (9-22) High (23-42)

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service 20

10/28/2010

3.3%8.5%

17.8%23.9%

18.4%

27.9%

36.8%

45.1%

18.1%

24.1%

39.8%

53.0%

Six Months One Year Two Years Three Years

2006 Cohort, 3 Year Recidivism Trends

Low (0-8) Moderate (9-22) High (23-42)

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service 21

10/28/2010

Continue efforts to align with CJCA guidelineso Variables and selection criteria

Expansion of Analysiso Discharged youtho Committed youtho Diverted youth

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service 22

10/28/2010

Becky Noréus: rnoreus@usm.maine.eduMuskie School of Public Service, Portland, Mainehttp://muskie.usm.maine.edu/justiceresearch/

To download the CJCA White Paper, please visithttp://cjca.net/resources/index/15

Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public Service 23