St. Louis Homicides

St. Louis HomicidesDonna Brandy, Brett Gilmer, Howard Leboeuf, Aaron Shedron

St. Louis HomicideSt. Louis City DistrictsThe Problem:Provide detailed information through the use of statistical and visual data to determine the probability of homicides occurring in the near future for the St. Louis City areas. To use statistical techniques and data to determine the probability of when, where, why, and how many homicides the City of St. Louis will have in a specific neighborhood in 2014. With this data be able to advise on how to deploy sufficiently the limited amount of funds that is available to the City of St. Louis Police Department.

St. Louis HomicideThe Data:

2013 St. Louis-Area Murder MapMay 8, 2013

Yellow: St. Louis City murders

Red: St. Louis, St. Charles and Jefferson County murders.

Light Blue: Metro East Murders

The Predictions 2010

2011

2012

2013

A Look Back: 2013 - 2010 homicides in St. Louis City's various neighborhoods

St. Louis HomicidesThe Data:

2011-2013 Neighborhoods Homicides Reported

Between January through June

2013 2012 2011 2010

January 19 13 2 16

February 11 6 14 11

March 7 12 13 7

April 5 10 16 14

May 8 14 16 10

June 11 15 18 18

January February March April May June0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

St. Louis Homicides

2013201220112010

Hom

icid

es

St. Louis Homicides

2013 2012 2011 2010

July 10 18 10 10

August 11 17 11 9

September 11 8 14 11

October 18 9 7 18

November 8 6 9 8

December 19 9 7 16

July August September October November December0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

St. Louis Homicides

2013201220112010

Hom

icid

es

The Data: 2011-2013 Neighborhoods Homicides ReportedBetween July through December

St. Louis HomicideThe Data: 2010-2013 District Homicides

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 St. Louis City Districts Homicides

Districts

Hom

icid

es

District 1: Cardonlet, Patch, Holly Hills, Carondelet ParkBoulevard Heights, Bevo Mill, Princeton Heights, Dutchtown, Mount Pleasant, Marine Villa

District 2: South Hampton, St. Louis Hills, Lindenwood Park,Ellendale, Clifton Heights, The Hill, Southwest Garden, North Hampton, Kings Oak, Cheltenham, Clayton-Tamm, Franz Park, Hi-Point, Wydown-Skinker, Forest Park

District 3: Tower Grove South, Gravois Park, Kosciusko, Soulard, Benton Park, McKinley Heights, Fox Park, Tower Grove East, Compton Heights, Shaw, Benton Park West, TowerGrove Park

District 4: Lafayette Square, Peabody-Darst-Webbe, Lasalle, Downtown, Downtown West, St. Louis Place, Carr Square, Columbus Square, Old North St. Louis, Near N. Riverfront

District 5: Jeff Vanderlou, Hyde Park, College Hill, Fairground Neighborhood, O’Fallon, Fairgrounds Park

District 6: Penrose, Mark Twain I-70 Ind., Mark Twain, Walnut Park East, North Point, Baden, Riverview, Walnut Park West, North Riverfront, Penrose Park, O’Fallon Park, Calvary-Bellefontaine Cemetaries

District 7: Central West End, Skinker-DeBaliviere, DeBaliviere Place, West End, Visitation Park, Wells Goodfellow, Academy, Kingsway West, Hamilton Heights

District 8: Fountain Park, Lewis Place, Kingsway East, The Great Ville, The Ville, Vandeventer

District 9: McRee Town, Tiffany, The Gate District, Midtown, Forest Park SE, Covenant Blu-Grand Center


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8


Districts

Hom

icid

es











1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8


Districts

Hom

icid

es











1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9


Districts

Hom

icid

es










St. Louis Homicide

Districts2014

January February March April May June July August September October November December

1

2

3

4

5 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 3

6 5 1 2 3 3 5 2 4 3 3 1 3

7 0 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2

8

9

The Data: 2014 District Homicides Predictions

January

FebruaryMarch April

MayJune

July

August

September

October

November

December

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2014 St. Louis Homicide Predictions

District 5District 6District 7

Dist

rictsDistrict 5: Jeff Vanderlou, Hyde Park,

College Hill, Fairground Neighborhood, O’Fallon, Fairgrounds Park



St. Louis HomicideThe Prediction: Districts and Neighborhoods 2014


January February March April May June July August September October November December0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

12.5

10.5

9.75

11.25

12

15.5

12 12

11

13

7.75

12.75

7

5 5

6 6

8

6 6 6

7

4

7

5

2 2

3 3

5

2

4

3 3

2

3

2014 City of St. Louis Homicide Predictions

2013-2010 averages 2010-2013 1/2 of averages 2014 District Predictions (realistically)

Months

Hom

icide

s

Reference Websites Cityrating.com http://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/missouri/st-louis.html#.UwvuZDiPJ7h http://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/#.UwvuhDiPJ7g http://www.stltoday.com/st-louis-area-murder-map/html_3bf7a0a8-0440-5ada-aacf-11e4314a9956.html

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/stl-info/st-louis-crime-reports-for/html_b9d8d540-6d5c-11e1-afa1-0019bb30f31a.html http://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/missouri/#.UwwLuziPJuE

http://www.slmpd.org/Crimereports.shtml

http://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/missouri/st-louis.html#.UwvuZDiPJ7h

http://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/#.UwvuhDiPJ7g

http://www.stltoday.com/st-louis-area-murder-map/html_3bf7a0a8-0440-5ada-aacf-11e4314a9956.html

http://www.stltoday.com/st-louis-area-murder-map/html_3bf7a0a8-0440-5ada-aacf-11e4314a9956.html

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/stl-info/st-louis-crime-reports-for/html_b9d8d540-6d5c-11e1-afa1-0019bb30f31a.html

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/stl-info/st-louis-crime-reports-for/html_b9d8d540-6d5c-11e1-afa1-0019bb30f31a.html

http://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/missouri/#.UwwLuziPJuE

http://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/missouri/#.UwwLuziPJuE



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St. Louis Homicides