21st Century Transportation in Convenient Communities Prof. Paul Okamoto’s Sustainable Design University of San Francisco 24 September 2014

Dr. John Holtzclaw Volunteer Lead, Sierra Club 21 C Transportation Campaign

john.holtzclaw@sierraclub.org http://www.sierraclub.org/sprawl/

Land Use & Transportation ASHRAE Golden Gate Seminar

Sustainable Urban Housing San Francisco, 7 Oct 2015

Dr. John Holtzclaw john.holtzclaw@sierraclub.org

Urban vs. Sprawl Auto Use SPRAWL TRANSIT

VILLAGE URBAN CENTER

METRO CENTER

San Ramon CA Rockridge, North Beach, Manhattan Oakland CA San Francisco

Res. Density (hh/res. acre) 3.2 10 100 200

Holtzclaw, Using Residential Patterns and Transit to Decrease Auto Dependence and Costs, 1994; Newman and Kenworthy, Cities and Automobile Dependence, 1989

3 Hh/Res Acre (Courtesy City of Portland)

San Francisco

North Beach

Paul and Tira

90 Hh/Res Acre Backyard, No parking

San Francisco West of Union Square 3 x 4 block zone

7 live theatres, fine hotels, cafes and markets

1 to 36 stories, mostly 4 - 16 stories

467 - 536 Hh/Res Ac 15% of land residential

limited parking

Traditional Development, San Francisco

Urban vs. Sprawl Auto Use SPRAWL TRANSIT

VILLAGE URBAN CENTER

METRO CENTER

San Ramon CA Rockridge, North Beach, Manhattan Oakland CA San Francisco

Res. Density (hh/res. acre) 3.2 10 100 200

Holtzclaw, Using Residential Patterns and Transit to Decrease Auto Dependence and Costs, 1994;

Newman and Kenworthy, Cities and Automobile Dependence, 1989

Transit (veh/hr nearby) 1 27 90 very high

Shopping (5 w/in 1/4 mi) no homes 25% of homes all homes all homes

Pedestrian amenities low medium high high

Autos/capita 0.79 0.66 0.28 0.12 Auto miles/capita 10,591 6,455 2,759 1,145 Ann. auto costs/capita $8,200 $5,030 $1,900 $800

www.sflcv.org/density

Housing sales prices $295/ft2 $407/ft2 $1,858/ft2 higher

Ann lbs CO2 emissions/capita 14,827 9037 3863 1603

Americans drive more than others transportation = 1/3 GHG; 70% oil

Why? ►Hoover zoning codes - SFD, wide streets, off-

street pkg, no stores ►Sprawl subsidies: VHA, Fanny Mae, Freddie

Mac, mortgage deductions, redlining, sewers ►Interstates: bulldoze & divide communities,

traffic/pollution, access farmland

Impact: drive for every loaf of bread = hi VMT www.sierraclub.org/transportation, www.t4america.org http://bettercities.net/article/restoring-lifeblood-main-street-21194

Location Efficiency Research

Location Efficient Mortgage

Institute for Location Efficiency

Center for Neighborhood Technology (Chicago) Natural Resources Defense Council

Surface Transportation Policy Project

LEM Research Nearly 3000 neighborhoods (TAZs) Chicago, LA and San Francisco metro areas How do: densities (3 measures) shopping proximity public transit ped/bike (grid, short, narrow, sidewalks, setbacks) family income family size impact: vehicles (census data) VMT (odometer readings from smog checks -- total driving, not just commutes)

Driving vs Residential Density

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

0 50 100 150 200

Households/Residential Acre

Ann

ual V

MT/

Hh

SFLAChicago

0- 5 Hh/RA = sprawl

Auto Mileage, Density & Stage of LifeMTC's 1990 Houehold Travel Survey

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Households/Residential Acre

Dai

ly H

ouse

hold

Mile

age

Single Adults

Adults, kids <16

Adults, kids 16-21

Retired

Driving vs Density by Household SizeChicago, Los Angeles & San Francisco regions

<2 pop/hh2-4 pop/hh

>4 pop/hh

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400Households/Residential Acre

Ann

ual V

MT/

Hh

Driving vs Density by IncomeChicago, Los Angeles & San Francisco regions

Poor (<$30K)

Middle IncomeWealthy (>$60K)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

0 20 40 60 80 100Households/Residential Acre

Ann

ual V

MT/

Hou

seho

ld

Annual Household Driving – San Francisco

VMT per Household875 - 50005001 - 1000010001 - 1500015001 - 2000020001 - 2500025001 - 3000030001 - 43000

Household Mileage

Veh/Hh, VMT/Veh and VMT/Hh in metropolitan San Francisco

( ) 2336.0$

000112.03471.0

312.600519.111520.22722.42386.1

−

−−

+

+

−

+= Tr

HPe

RAH

HhVeh P

( )

−−−

+

+=

−

22136$01743.00704.0102759.015041.0103860419.0

PPed

HP

TAH

VehVMT

VMTHh

VehHh

VMTVeh

= ×

For the 3 metropolitan areas, the R2 = 79 – 96% for Veh/Hh and 80 – 94% for VMT/Hh.

H/RA is Households/Residential Acres, H/TA is Households/Total Acre, $/P is Income/Capita,P/H is Persons/Hh, Tr is Zonal Transit Density and Ped is Ped/Bicycle Friendliness

Reported in: John Holtzclaw,* Robert Clear, Hank Dittmar, David Goldstein and Peter Haas,Location Efficiency: Neighborhood and Socio-Economic Characteristics Determine Auto Ownershipand Use---Studies in Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco. Transportation Planning and Technology,Vol. 25(1),pp 1-27, March 2002. http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/online/0308-1060.html

Also reported at http://www.sierraclub.org/sprawl/transportation/holtzclaw-awma.pdf

0 300 600 900

450

300150

2

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

An

nu

al

VM

T/H

ou

seh

old

Zonal Transit Density

Hh/Res Acre

Impact of Density and Transit on DrivingSan Francisco Bay Area

Collateral Benefits of Compact Development

Saving building materials,

heating & cooling energy, and water cuts energy use and pollution

(Phillips & Gnaizda, CoEvolution Quarterly, Summer 1980)

0 1 2 3 4 5

heat, cool home

driving

autos

lumber

pipe, wiring

The Costs of Sprawl:Urban Infill vs Suburban Sprawl

Relative Impacts

urban infill (100 units/res acre) sprawl

0 10 20 30 40

Relative Impacts

water

land; species

pavement

The Costs of Sprawl:Urban Infill vs Suburban Sprawl

urban infill (100 units/res acre) sprawl

Courcelles (6 & 7 story curb-to-curb apartments) of Paris, just N of the Arc de Triomphe had lowest annual measured heat/cool energy demand (5:1) of any urban or suburban neighborhood in London, Paris, Berlin or Istanbul. (US sprawl~10:1 ) (LSE: Feb 2014) http://www.salon.com/2014/04/06/suburbias_climate_change_nightmare_the_devastating_cost_of_surviving_winters_wrath/?source=newsletter%

Street Packing

Streetsblog.org 4 June 2013

Bikes & drivers

Cars & drivers

Get thee to a bus

Want to consume lots of space? Drive!

Dens, m-u, prox, transit, ped & protected bike lanes NYC

Dens, prox, m-u, ped & bike, trans, vibrant, parking curbed Times Square, NYC

Den, m-u, prox, vibrant streets, shopping WalkScore = 95

3 5

11 11 11

22

16

22 21 22 22 23 24

16

25

0.5

1

1 1 2

2

8

3 4 4

9 9

10

18

26

0

10

20

30

40

50

Perc

ent o

f tri

ps b

y cy

clin

g an

d w

alki

ng

Walking Cycling

Share of Trips by Cycling and Walking

Source: Pucher and Buehler, City Cycling, MIT Press, 2012

Bicycle share of trips and

percentage of female cyclists in large cities

Cyclist and Pedestrian Fatality and Injury Rates

1.1 1.6 1.6

3.3

5.5

1.6 1.5

4.7

5.7

33.5*

1.6 2.3

1.9

3.6

9.7

1.3 1.3

2.4

3.3

13.7

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

NL DK GER UK USA

Fata

lititi

es a

nd in

juri

es p

er tr

ip a

nd p

er k

ilom

eter

Cylists killed per 100 million km cycled

Cylists injured per 10 million km cycled

Pedestrians killed per 100 million km walked

Pedestrians injured per 10 million km walked

Cyclist and Pedestrian Fatality and Injury Rates

courtesy Pucher and Buehler (eds): City Cycling

Source: World Health Organization (2008) and OECD Transport Research Centre (2006)

Why Traffic Calming Saves Lives

Speed kills!

Speed kills!

Courtesy John Pucher

Dens, m-u, prox, ped, transit, activity, parking curbed High Line NYC