Mary Yamada DOE SSL Technology Development Workshop

November 17, 2016 Associate Director

Navigant Consulting, Inc.

SSL Market Adoption: Status and Trends

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Navigant has conducted several market analyses for the U.S. DOE Solid-State Lighting (SSL) Program…

2000 2016

LED Market Studies

Adoption of LEDs in Common

Lighting Applications

(2008, 2011, 2013, 2015)

Lighting Market

Characterization

(2002, 2012)

Energy Savings Forecast of SSL

(2003, 2006, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016)

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Where Have We Been and Where Are We Now?

Source: http://eatsleeppublish.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/past-present.jpg

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U.S. Lighting Installed Stock by Technology, 2010-2015

Energy efficiency standards, as well as increasing adoption of LEDs, are causing rapid change in lighting stock, however, there is still a long way to go…

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2015 U.S. LED Installed Penetration

INNOVATORS EARLY ADOPTERS EARLY MAJORITY LATE MAJORITY MAIN STREAM

EXIT SIGNS

DIRECTIONAL

SMALL DIRECTIONAL

BUILDING EXTERIOR

REFRIGERATOR CASE DISPLAY

TRAFFIC SIGNALS

100%

50%

25%

10% 5%

LINEAR FIXTURES

A-TYPE LOW/HIGH BAY

DECORATIVE

PARKING LOT

PARKING GARAGE

AREA/ROADWAY

Insta

lled B

ase P

enetr

ation (

%)

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Installed Penetration (%) Commercial Residential Industrial Outdoor

None 68% 86% 94% 41%

Dimmer 3% 11% 4% <1%

Daylighting <1% <1% <1% 39%

Occupancy 6% <1% 2% <1%

Timer 4% <1% <1% 20%

Energy Management System (EMS) 15% <1% <1% <1%

Multi-Strategy 4% <1% <1% <1%

Connected Lighting <1% <1% <1% <1%

2015 U.S. Installed Penetration of Lighting Controls

In 2015, about 18% of lighting systems in the U.S. operate with controls.

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Lighting Market Model Overview

Source: http://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/p/philosophise.asp

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Lighting Market Model Overview

Major inputs, modules and analytical flow of the lighting market model are shown below:

Lighting Performance

Lighting Price

Hours of Use

Logit Potential

Acceptance Factor

Efficiency Standards

Technology Diffusion

Lighting & Control Stock

Renovations & Growth

Lighting Failures

Initial Stock

Per Control Savings

Energy Use - No SSL

Energy Use - SSL Scenario

Control Use Baseline

Load Profile Energy Effect

Energy Savings

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Lighting Market Model Overview

15 Lighting

4 Controls

The lighting market model considers adoption across:

Incandescent Incandescent

Reflector Halogen

CFL Reflector CFL Pin T5

Metal Halide High Pressure

Sodium Mercury Vapor

Halogen Reflector

CFL

T8 T12

4 Sectors

8 Submarkets

For the following lighting and control systems:

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Lighting Control Definitions

This year, the lighting market model was updated to forecast the impact from several types of control systems:

• Single Strategy Traditional dimming, daylighting, occupancy, or timers are implemented individually.

• Multi-Strategy A combination of two, three, or four of the traditional control types implemented together.

• EMS Allows control of lamps and luminaires within a single building. All four traditional control strategies are implemented.

• Connected All four traditional control strategies are implemented. Additional energy savings based on communication between connected lamps and luminaires, as well as use optimization.

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How Is the Market Predicted to Change?

Source: http://www.calvin.edu/chimes/2015/04/30/new-model-improves-hurricane-predictions/

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SSL Lighting Market Model Scenarios

LED installed stock and energy use is forecasted based on two scenarios:

Scenarios Description Connected Lighting Assumptions

Current SSL Path

The expected future path for LEDs given continuation of current SSL investment and effort from DOE and industry stakeholders.

Penetration rate is similar to occupancy sensors, resulting in a slow adoption.

DOE SSL Program Goals

The future path for LEDs given DOE goals are met, representing the ultimate potential of what DOE has determined is technically feasible in the given time frame.

Penetration rate follows the same trajectory of LEDs, resulting in accelerated adoption.

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With current levels of SSL investment, LEDs are expected to rise such that 78% and 9% of installed stock in 2035 are non-connected and connected LEDs, respectively.

Installed Stock Forecast – Current SSL Path

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If the DOE goals are met and efforts to advance connected lighting are successful, connected LEDs are expected to increase to 24% of installed stock in 2035.

Installed Stock Forecast – DOE SSL Program Goals

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Both connected lighting and traditional control systems are expected to thrive. However, connected lighting represents the majority of the future savings from lighting controls.

Installed Stock Forecast – Lighting Controls

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Where Are the Energy Savings?

Source: https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/4d/01/15/4d01156238d5b14c67716095df3bfc2c.jpg/

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By 2035, LED lighting is forecasted to reduce annual U.S. energy consumption by as much as 5.1 quads.

LED Energy Savings Forecast

Million Homes

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LED Energy Savings Forecast

Million Homes

Connected Lighting represents 1/3

of annual 2035 LED energy savings.

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By 2035, LED lighting is forecasted to reduce annual U.S. energy consumption by as much as 5.1 quads.

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Energy Savings Opportunities for LED Lighting

Linear Fixture

Decorative

Low/High Bay

Other

Directional

Building Exterior

Area/Roadway

Parking Lot

Garage

Due to the unique usage characteristics in each lighting application, the opportunities for LED installations and energy savings vary significantly.

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Ava

ila

ble

No

n-L

ED

In

sta

lla

tio

ns

(M

illio

n U

nit

s)

LED 2015 Installed Stock Penetration

A-Type

0

0

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Energy Savings Opportunities for LED Lighting

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Ava

ila

ble

No

n-L

ED

In

sta

lla

tio

ns

(M

illio

n U

nit

s)

LED 2015 Installed Stock Penetration

A-Type

Linear Fixture

Decorative

Low/High Bay

Other

Directional

Building Exterior

Area/Roadway

Parking Lot

Garage

Although linear fixture, low/high bay and outdoor applications are only one-fifth of all available installations, they represent 65% of the 2035 LED energy savings.

0

0

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Industry Acknowledgements

Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships Efficiency Vermont

National Grid City of San Jose, Transportation Department

Digital Lumens SSLS, Inc.

AEP Ohio RAB Lighting Inc.

Philips GE Lighting

Lutron Enlighted

Leviton Acuity Brands

Cree Vistar Energy Consulting

WattStopper Eversource

Lutron Eaton

Enlighted Cree

Southern California Edison Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

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Contact Information & Links

Mary Yamada

Associate Director, Navigant

Mary.Yamada@Navigant.com

DOE SSL Program, Market Studies

http://energy.gov/eere/ssl/market-studies

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Questions?

Source: https://www.ipromedia.us/the-best-it-solutions-for-southern-businesses/