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California Water Service 2015 Urban Water Management PlanDixon District
Printed 5/12/2016
Appendix C: Correspondences
UWMP Notice of Preparation, March 10, 2016 Growth Projection Letter to Cities and Counties UWMP Public Draft Comments
California Water Service 2015 Urban Water Management PlanDixon District
Printed 5/12/2016
Appendix C: Correspondences
UWMP Notice of Preparation, March 10, 2016
March 10, 2016
[Name_F] [Name_L][Organization][Address][City], CA [ZipCode] Dear [Title] [Name_L]:
California Water Service (Cal Water) is committed to providing safe, reliable, and high-quality water utility service in our Dixon service area. At Cal Water, one of our top priorities is ensuring that our customers have a sustainable supply of water for decades to come.
With that in mind, we wanted to take this opportunity to let you know that we are updating our Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) for this service area. This UWMP is reviewed and updated every five years pursuant to the Urban Water Management Plan Act, and will be completed by July 1, 2016. Our UWMP is a foundational document that supports our long-term water resource planning to ensure our customers have adequate water supplies to meet current and future demands.
Proposed revisions to our 2010 UWMP will be made available for public review, and we will be holding a public hearing, during which the updates for the 2015 UWMP will be discussed. The draft 2015 UWMP and the date, time and location of the public hearing will be available on our web site in a few weeks at www.calwater.com/conservation/uwmp. A hard copy of the draft UWMP will also be available at our Dixon Customer Center located at 201 South First Street, Dixon, CA 95620. If you have any questions about the UWMP for this service area, please contact Michael Bolzowski, Cal Water Senior Engineer, at (408) 367-8338 or e-mail [email protected].
Sincerely,
Scott WagnerDirector of Capital Planning & Water Resources
Council Member BirdCouncil MemberCity of Dixon201 South First StreetDixon, CA [email protected]
Council Member CastanonCouncil MemberCity of Dixon201 South First StreetDixon, CA [email protected]
Council Member HickmanCouncil MemberCity of Dixon201 South First StreetDixon, CA [email protected]
Council Member PedersonCouncil MemberCity of Dixon201 South First StreetDixon, CA [email protected]
Mayor BatchelorMayorCity of Dixon201 South First StreetDixon, CA [email protected]
Joe LeachPublic Works DirectorCity of Dixon201 South First StreetDixon, CA [email protected]
Matt TugglePublic Works Engineering ManagerSolano County201 South First StreetDixon, CA [email protected]
Supervisor VasquezSupervisorSolano County201 South First StreetDixon, CA [email protected]
David B. Okita, P.E.General ManagerSolano County Water Agency201 South First StreetDixon, CA [email protected]
Ronald SanfordGeneral ManagerSolano County Water Agency810 Vaca Valley Parkway, Suite 203Vacaville, CA [email protected]
Cary KeatenGeneral ManagerSolano Irrigation District201 South First StreetDixon, CA [email protected]
California Water Service 2015 Urban Water Management PlanDixon District
Printed 5/12/2016
Appendix C: Correspondences
Growth Projection Letter to Cities and Counties
1
Blanusa, Danilo
From: Blanusa, DaniloSent: Wednesday, August 19, 2015 4:46 PMTo: 'Joe Leach ([email protected])'Cc: Salzano, Tom; Bolzowski, Michael R.; Keck, Jonathan; Caldwell, Jack E.Subject: Cal Water Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) growth forecast for your review - Dixon
DistrictAttachments: Letter to City Planning Officials - Attachmet - DIX.pdf
TrackingTracking: Recipient Delivery
'Joe Leach ([email protected])'
Salzano, Tom Delivered: 8/19/2015 4:46 PM
Bolzowski, Michael R. Delivered: 8/19/2015 4:46 PM
Keck, Jonathan Delivered: 8/19/2015 4:46 PM
Caldwell, Jack E. Delivered: 8/19/2015 4:46 PM
Dear Mr. Leach,
Pursuant to California Water Code, Division 6, Part 2.6, Sections 10610 through 10656, California Water Service is in theprocess of preparing the required 2015 update of our Urban Water Management Plans. These plans are required to beupdated every five (5) years for each of our services areas (Districts). As you know our Dixon District provides waterservice to the City of Dixon.
The purpose of this communication is to solicit your assistance in reviewing and advising us with respect to one of thekey elements of the plan, which is the development of a growth forecast for our district. This growth forecast isconducted based on growth in each customer service classification applicable to a particular district, which typicallyinclude:
• Single family residential
• Multi-family residential
• Commercial
• Industrial
• Government (City or County parks, median strips, landscaping and schools)
• Dedicated Irrigation (rare)
• Other (temporary construction meters)
The forecasted growth rates are combined with a demand per service factor applicable to each customer class todetermine the future water demands for the district. These growth factors are adjustable and we want to review themwith you so that we are consistent with anticipated growth that your planning efforts forecast. If adjustments arenecessary we can do them now and avoid conflicts and confusion later in this process.
Some specific information regarding our approach to forecasting customer service growth is detailed as follows:
• Residential – Typically two residential customer service categories represent the vast majority of theservice counts as well as subsequent water sales or demand in our districts. Cal Water considers bothsingle family and multi-family residential services independently as individual classes, but combinesthem together in order to assess population growth and housing unit growth. While we use historicaltrends in the establishment for the growth rates for these two customer classes, we also analyze censusdata for population and housing factors and compare our forecast results for these two parameters withavailable data from City General Plans, as well as County Economic Forecast data and Regionalgovernment association forecasts as a reality or appropriateness check of our results.
2
• Commercial & Industrial – Historical trend is a key influence in this customer class, however where wehave seen negative trends in recent years for these categories due to the economic downturn, wetypically employ either a zero rate of growth or a small, reasonable positive rate of growth. We havealso undertaken during the last ten years some reassessment of customer service classifications that hasresulted in reallocation of some customer service accounts between various classes. This reallocation,which included commercial, industrial, multi-family residential and in some cases government services,has made the analysis of growth a bit more difficult.
• Government – Growth trends are generally parallel to that of the residential sector, so we verify thatour rate of grow is not dramatically out-of-sequence with the overall community.
• Other – The use of temporary-assigned construction meters varies considerably from year to year, andcan represent considerable water demand. In this case, we select a growth rate that is stable, yetreflects the overall growth of the community.
We have included with this communication a set of tables and graphs (see attachment) that illustrate the parametersthat influence the growth forecast as currently set up for this district. These include:
A. The historical and projected service data in both graph and table formB. The 2000 and 2010 Census data for the districts service areaC. Housing projection chart comparing Cal Water’s forecast (always in red) with those from other organizationsD. Population projection chart comparing Cal Water’s forecast (always in red) with those from other organizationsE. Table of population and housing values along with multi-family residential unit density and persons per housing
unit density that are employed in this forecast effort.
Please note that the 2015 data, which we need to include in our finished forecast, is not yet final, and some minorfluctuation of these values is possible.
Please examine these documents to determine if you concur with our forecasted housing and population numbers. Itwould be greatly appreciated if you could, by September 11, 2015, provide us with an indication of your support or inthe case you do not agree with our forecast a reason why and the appropriate rate or growth pattern that we shouldemploy. If I do not hear back from you by the end of business (EOB) on the above date I will assume that you concurwith our forecast.
If you need a more detailed explanation of these numbers or want to review them with us please feel free to contact meat (408) 367-8340 or by email at [email protected].
Thank you for your assistance in this effort.
Respectfully,
Thomas A. SalzanoThomas A. SalzanoWater Resource Planning Supervisor
Danilo Blanusa, P.E.Senior Engineer
CALIFORNIA WATER SERVICE
408-367-8387
3
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Blanusa, Danilo
From: Blanusa, DaniloSent: Monday, August 24, 2015 2:21 PMTo: 'Matt Tuggle ([email protected])'Cc: Salzano, Tom; Bolzowski, Michael R.; Keck, Jonathan; Caldwell, Jack E.Subject: Cal Water Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) growth forecast for your review - Dixon
DistrictAttachments: Letter to City Planning Officials - Attachmet - DIX.PDF
TrackingTracking: Recipient Delivery
'Matt Tuggle ([email protected])'
Salzano, Tom Delivered: 8/24/2015 2:21 PM
Bolzowski, Michael R. Delivered: 8/24/2015 2:21 PM
Keck, Jonathan Delivered: 8/24/2015 2:21 PM
Caldwell, Jack E. Delivered: 8/24/2015 2:21 PM
Dear Mr. Tuggle,
Pursuant to California Water Code, Division 6, Part 2.6, Sections 10610 through 10656, California Water Service is in theprocess of preparing the required 2015 update of our Urban Water Management Plans. These plans are required to beupdated every five (5) years for each of our services areas (Districts). As you know our Dixon District provides waterservice to Solano County.
The purpose of this communication is to solicit your assistance in reviewing and advising us with respect to one of thekey elements of the plan, which is the development of a growth forecast for our district. This growth forecast isconducted based on growth in each customer service classification applicable to a particular district, which typicallyinclude:
• Single family residential
• Multi-family residential
• Commercial
• Industrial
• Government (City or County parks, median strips, landscaping and schools)
• Dedicated Irrigation (rare)
• Other (temporary construction meters)
The forecasted growth rates are combined with a demand per service factor applicable to each customer class todetermine the future water demands for the district. These growth factors are adjustable and we want to review themwith you so that we are consistent with anticipated growth that your planning efforts forecast. If adjustments arenecessary we can do them now and avoid conflicts and confusion later in this process.
Some specific information regarding our approach to forecasting customer service growth is detailed as follows:
• Residential – Typically two residential customer service categories represent the vast majority of theservice counts as well as subsequent water sales or demand in our districts. Cal Water considers bothsingle family and multi-family residential services independently as individual classes, but combinesthem together in order to assess population growth and housing unit growth. While we use historicaltrends in the establishment for the growth rates for these two customer classes, we also analyze censusdata for population and housing factors and compare our forecast results for these two parameters withavailable data from City General Plans, as well as County Economic Forecast data and Regionalgovernment association forecasts as a reality or appropriateness check of our results.
2
• Commercial & Industrial – Historical trend is a key influence in this customer class, however where wehave seen negative trends in recent years for these categories due to the economic downturn, wetypically employ either a zero rate of growth or a small, reasonable positive rate of growth. We havealso undertaken during the last ten years some reassessment of customer service classifications that hasresulted in reallocation of some customer service accounts between various classes. This reallocation,which included commercial, industrial, multi-family residential and in some cases government services,has made the analysis of growth a bit more difficult.
• Government – Growth trends are generally parallel to that of the residential sector, so we verify thatour rate of grow is not dramatically out-of-sequence with the overall community.
• Other – The use of temporary-assigned construction meters varies considerably from year to year, andcan represent considerable water demand. In this case, we select a growth rate that is stable, yetreflects the overall growth of the community.
We have included with this communication a set of tables and graphs (see attachment) that illustrate the parametersthat influence the growth forecast as currently set up for this district. These include:
A. The historical and projected service data in both graph and table formB. The 2000 and 2010 Census data for the districts service areaC. Housing projection chart comparing Cal Water’s forecast (always in red) with those from other organizationsD. Population projection chart comparing Cal Water’s forecast (always in red) with those from other organizationsE. Table of population and housing values along with multi-family residential unit density and persons per housing
unit density that are employed in this forecast effort.
Please note that the 2015 data, which we need to include in our finished forecast, is not yet final, and some minorfluctuation of these values is possible.
Please examine these documents to determine if you concur with our forecasted housing and population numbers. Itwould be greatly appreciated if you could, by September 11, 2015, provide us with an indication of your support or inthe case you do not agree with our forecast a reason why and the appropriate rate or growth pattern that we shouldemploy. If I do not hear back from you by the end of business (EOB) on the above date I will assume that you concurwith our forecast.
If you need a more detailed explanation of these numbers or want to review them with us please feel free to contact meat (408) 367-8340 or by email at [email protected].
Thank you for your assistance in this effort.
Respectfully,
Thomas A. SalzanoThomas A. SalzanoWater Resource Planning Supervisor
Danilo Blanusa, P.E.Senior Engineer
CALIFORNIA WATER SERVICE
408-367-8387
3
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Serv
ice
sHistorical & Projected Services
Annual Services
Projection
Water Supply and Facility Master Plan
2010 UWMP
Attachment A (Sheet 1 of 2)
Serv Proj
California Water Service Company - Dixon District Worksheet 8
Water Supply and Demand Analysis and Projections
Customer
Category Base Year
2000 2005 2010 2015 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
SFR SFR_E 20 Yr. Avg. 0.26% 2,635 2,657 2,611 2,636 2,636 2,670 2,705 2,740 2,775 2,811
MFR MFR_C 10 Yr. Avg. 2.41% 17 17 15 25 25 28 32 36 40 45
COM COM_E 20 Yr. Avg. 0.71% 136 137 156 157 157 163 168 175 181 187
IND IND_A Zero Growth Rate 0.00% 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
GOV GOV_D 15 Yr. Avg. 1.62% 23 24 36 28 28 30 33 35 38 41
OTH OTH_A Zero Growth Rate 0.00% 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
IRR IRR_A Zero Growth Rate 0.00% 0 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TOTAL Average growth rate 2011-2040 0.32% 2,815 2,847 2,821 2,849 2,850 2,895 2,942 2,990 3,039 3,090
Actual Services Projected ServicesSelected Trend
Growth
Rate
DIX PAWS 2014 Serv Proj 8/18/2015
Attachment A (Sheet 2 of 2)
Marplot Summary
California Water Service Company - Dixon District Worksheet 12
Water Supply and Demand Analysis and ProjectionsMarPlot Summary
System
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Tract
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Population
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Density
Census
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Population
Housing
Units
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Density
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HU
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Density
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Dixon 118 9,102 2,906 3.13 141 9,401 3,199 2.94 103.3% 110.1% 93.8%118 9,102 2,906 3.13 141 9,401 3,199 2.94 103.3% 110.1% 93.8%
City of Dixon 231 18,364 6,177 2.97CWS % of City 51.2% 51.8%
US Census 2000 Summary US Census 2010 Summary 2000-2010 Change
MARPLOT disclaimer: The population and housing number given above are only rough estimates. They are based on the US Census Blocks. Although Census Blocks are polygons, MARPLOT usesthe centoid, or center point, rather than the entire polygon. If a Census Block centroid is within any of the MARPLOT selected objects, the population and housing numbers for that block are tallied,even if only part of the block is within the selected object. It is possible for a block not be counted if its centroid is not within selected objects, even thought part of the block is within the selectedobjects.
DIX PAWS 2014 Marplot Summary 8/18/2015
Attachment B
HOU
DIX PAWS 2014 HOU 8/18/2015
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Ho
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Year
Housing Projections
Total Residential Dwelling Units
US Census
CDOF
Water Supply and Facility Master PlanSolano County Economic Forecast
2010 UWMP
Solano County from ABAG's Projections 2005
Attachment C
POP
DIX PAWS 2014 POP 8/18/2015
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Po
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Population Projections
Cal Water Projection
US Census
CDOF
Water Supply and Facility Master Plan
Solano County Economic Forecast
2010 UWMP
EBEDA Projection
LAFCO
Attachment D
Population
California Water Service Company - Dixon District Worksheet 12
Water Supply and Demand Analysis and ProjectionsPopulation Estimate
Single Family Flat RateResidential Residential Unit Residential
Services (DU) Services Units (DU) Density Services (DU)2000 9,102 2,906 3.132 2,635 17 271 16.0 02010 9,401 3,199 2.939 2,611 15 589 40.4 0
3.3% 10.1% -6.2% -0.9% -13.8% 117.4% 152.2% 0.0%
Single Family Flat Rate Total EstimatedResidential Services Residential Unit Residential Residential District
Services (DU) Units (DU) Density Services (DU) Dwelling Units Population1995 2,505 17 272 16.0 0 2,777 3.132 8,6971996 2,519 17 272 16.0 0 2,791 3.132 8,7421997 2,539 17 272 16.0 0 2,811 3.132 8,8061998 2,587 17 272 16.0 0 2,859 3.132 8,9551999 2,628 17 272 16.0 0 2,900 3.132 9,0842000 2,635 17 271 16.0 0 2,906 3.132 9,1022001 2,634 17 302 17.8 0 2,936 3.113 9,1412002 2,640 17 334 19.7 0 2,974 3.093 9,2012003 2,637 17 366 21.5 0 3,003 3.074 9,2322004 2,636 17 398 23.4 0 3,034 3.055 9,2682005 2,657 17 430 25.3 0 3,087 3.035 9,3702006 2,667 17 461 27.1 0 3,128 3.016 9,4342007 2,654 16 493 30.2 0 3,147 2.997 9,4302008 2,609 20 525 26.9 0 3,134 2.977 9,3322009 2,589 21 557 26.5 0 3,146 2.958 9,3052010 2,611 15 589 40.4 0 3,199 2.939 9,4012011 2,620 22 620 28.2 0 3,241 2.939 9,5232012 2,623 23 652 28.4 0 3,275 2.939 9,624
/\ 2013 2,632 23 652 28.4 0 3,284 2.939 9,650 /\| 2014 2,631 25 695 28.4 0 3,326 2.939 9,774 |
ACTUAL 2015 2,636 25 709 28.4 0 3,345 2.939 9,829 ACTUALPROJECTED 2020 2,670 28 798 28.4 0 3,468 2.939 10,193 PROJECTED
| 2025 2,705 32 899 28.4 0 3,604 2.939 10,591 |\/ 2030 2,740 36 1,013 28.4 0 3,753 2.939 11,029 \/
2035 2,775 40 1,141 28.4 0 3,917 2.939 11,5102040 2,811 45 1,286 28.4 0 4,097 2.939 12,040
Notes: linear extrapolation used to estimated MFR-DU from 2000. Estimate extend until 2012 due to reclassification, afterwhich a constant MFR Unit Density is used.
Multi Family Residential
Year
Persons per
Housing Unit
Multi Family Residential
Population Housing UnitsYear
US CensusPersons per
Housing Unit
DIX PAWS 2014 Population 8/18/2015
Attachment E
California Water Service 2015 Urban Water Management Plan
Dixon District
Printed 6/6/2016
Appendix C: Correspondences
UWMP Public Draft Comments
Note: There were no comments received on the UWMP Public Draft.
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