SSC 260 : Introduction to Social Sciences : Economic Section

Jaruwan Chontanawat

Topic 3: Economic force in Daily life (III) : Economic problems and Solutions

23/09/2008

Outlines:

Past – Bubble economy, inflation, Unemployment, exchange rate, etc.

Solution: Fiscal and Monetary policies, International policy – FTA, AFTA

Fact: Existence of various problems Old solution One alternative solution : sufficiency

economy

Acknowledgement

Aj. Panalert Siriwong

Bubble Economy

Thailand had $90,000 million foreign dept (more than ½ of GDP)

Most of them were used out of the economic system (ex. stock market)

Result in high the percentage of economic growth

But, in fact, it had low level of development on economic structures.

The Bubble Burst

In 1996, Thai export growth rate was at 0% due to the lack of competitive advantages.

Thai Baht was depended on USD. US economic was in the way

up, Thai was not.

Investor sold Baht back to the market.

Baht was sold back to market…

End of the Bubble

Bank of Thailand try to buy Baht from the market until the reserved fund was run out.

Baht was floated, IMF loan.

Changing in Exchange Rate

Shift from 25 Baht/ 1 USD

40 Baht/ 1 USD

Inflation Solution

Cost push

Fiscal Policy

Demand pull

Monetary Policy

Fiscal Policy

Used by = Government Tools = Government revenue (Taxes) and expenses

Objectives:

Efficiently resources management Encourage income distribution. Stimulate economic growth Balance economic stability

Fiscal Policy as Economic Solution

Expansionary fiscal policy (combat deflation) government expenses taxes

Contractionary fiscal policy (combat inflation) government expenses taxes

Thai activities on fiscal policy

Expansionary fiscal policy Encourage economic growth and balance

economic stability

In 1961-1976

Government spending Taxes Invest in economic infrastructure, public utility. Reduce import taxes of some capital goods or

production materials to reduce production costs.

Monetary Policy

Used by = Central bank Tools = money flow and loans

Objectives: Balance economic stability, Encourage higher rate of employment, Stimulate economic growth, Control trade balance, Encourage income distribution.

Contractionary monetary policy (combat inflation) Bank of Thailand sell stock Increase reserved fund = Decrease personal loan Raise saving interest rates = People save

Expansionary monetary policy (combat deflation ) Bank of Thailand buy stock Decrease reserved fund = release more personal

loan Reduce interest rates on bank loan = New business

= Jobs Reduce saving interest rates

Fiscal Policy as Economic Solution

Thai activities on monetary policy Balance financial stability

Strengthen financial institution stability Sell stock to private sector Control loan pay out to private sector

Support economic and social development Encourage commercial bank to increase loan to

agricultural sector. Provide financial support to agriculture and co-op

bank.

International Economy

Different economic system Free-market economic (Capitalism) Command economic (Communism) Mixed economic

Capitalism

Free decision making by individuals People have rights to owned business and on

profit they made People can consume whatever they want

The price mechanism Marketing as a key success Government not involve on economic activity

Only monitor and control situation

Communism

Contrast to capitalism Government occupy resources and all production factors Private sector has no rights on production factors Government control over all production processes and

resources allocation All business units and households produce and consume

whatever government required.

Mixed economy

Combination of Capitalism and Communism Government and private sector cooperate

to solve basis economic problem Production factor come from both

government and private sector

Capitalism ingredients Private sector has rights on some assets and

freedom to product or consume Competitive oriented, price mechanism

Communism ingredients Government operate on business unit that

has high influence to majority of population i.e. Electric and water supply, and transportation

Mixed economy

Baht Value

Internal Influence Influenced by rate of inflation Rate of inflation Baht Value

External Influence Rate of exchange to other national currency (How

much of Baht can buy 1 unit of other currency)

EEF (Exchange Equalization Fund) which is a subdivision of the Bank of Thailand is responsible for

Thai currency adjustment.

Thai’s currency adjustment methods

Fixed exchange rate method Tied with U.S.Dollar fixed in a period of time.

Daily exchange rate method Discuss with member from commercial bank and

EEF concern Demand and Supply of U.S.Dollar

Exchange rate adjust by EEF EEF adjust rate of exchange by moritoring Demand

and Supply of U.S.Dollar

Money basket Adjust by monitoring group of currency which are

trading alliance of Thailand

Free Trade Area (FTA)

Thai’s current economic strategy Trading agreement between 2 countries WTO wasn’t benefit Thai trading agreement

Because too many member (145 countries)

Thai’s main customer is U.S., Japan, and E.U. reached peak point = Thai tried to expand market to other region.

Thai open FTA to Bahrain = Open middle east market

Thai’s FTA with China encourage import value from $20m to $200m (10 times)

Free Trade Area (FTA)

Current: Thai is negotiating for increasing FTA activities with…

China India Mexico U.S. Australia E.U. South Africa

Free Trade Area (FTA)

AFTA: Asian Free Trade Area An agreement by the

Association of Southeast Asian Nations , of local

manufacturing in all

ASEAN countries. consists of 10 members;

Brunei Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore

Thailand Vietnam Laos Myanmar Cambodia

Increase Asian's competitive edge as a production base in the world market The elimination of tariffs and non-tariff barriers

Attract more foreign direct investment to Asian

Primary Goals

Expand Thai’s International Trade Free trade among Asian encourage increasing in

trading circulation Exchange in production factors (raw material) Lower cost for business Create competitive advantage in east of Asia region More investment from Japan and U.S.

AFTA and Thai Economy

High trading expansion between Thailand and other members in AFTA (1993-2003)

Thai export value In 2003 = $80,049 Million In 1993 = $37,325 Million

Thai import value In 2003 = $75,015 Million In 1993 = $46,163 Million

AFTA and Thai Economy

Export

Asian became Thai’s no.1 export market replacing U.S.

Important export goods: Computer and equipments, automobile, chemical products, steels, and rubber.

Import

Asian became the 2nd market follow Japan market for Thailand import market.

Important export goods: Chemical products, electrical circuit, computer and equipments, raw gasoline, and natural gas.

AFTA and Thai Economy

China Economic Development

Mega-Projects Investment Changing to capitalism

Current statistics

Economic growth Inflation Trade balance

Inflation

Gas price decrease

Raw gasoline 2006 = $65/Barrel  2007 = $60/Barrel  

Government’s fiscal policy

GDP 2006 = 4.5%  2007 = 4.0-5.0%  

Economic forecast for 2007

Trade balance +4,526 million Baht

New market were Eastern Europe with 94% increase, India, Africa, and South Korea at 22%

Export goods had been increasing in all types of goods including agricultural and industrial agricultural products with 28.8% increase

Major agricultural and industrial agricultural products most had been increasing including; rice, cassava, food products (frozen, transform food; shrimp, chicken, fruit, and vegetable ) and sugar

‘Basis of Thai economy is agricultural

sector’

‘Fact’

Our prior main focus was to increase revenue and economic growth of “the country”

Thai major economic obstacles

National income was continuously increasing

SED-Plan 1-3 = 7-8% per year SED-Plan 4 = 5-6% per year SED-Plan 5 = 4-5% per year A decade before economic crisis (SED-

Plan 6-7 ) was a period that NI increased tremendously (8-9% per year and more than 10% in some year)

Refer as one of the countries that had dramatically high growth rate

Result from the prior focus

ข้�อมู�ลพื้�นฐานเศรษฐกิ�จไทย

Problems of majority of population (most are poor in urban and country side)

Still not independent and weak, lack of opportunity to migrate for better living in the city

Poor, or sufficient only to lives day by day Unemployed, or done illegal work i.e. prostitute,

drug dealer Gap between rich and poor getting wider

Result from the prior focus

Other problems…

National resources deficiency Environmental problems National and personal debts Lack of competitiveness Depend on export markets

Result from the prior focus

Question: Where did the NI go?

It went to a few Thai millionaire + Foreigner who was the capital holder (owned foreign technology, product, and services)

The consequence was that those people became richer and the gab also wider

Same old solution

Most of solution done through fiscal and monetary policy

Heavily stimulate economic by previous governments

Money input to economic system

Fiscal policy Monetary policy To stimulate government spending,

private consumption, investment, and supporting export spending

Money input to economic system through fiscal and monetary policy was doing well to stimulate consumption, but…

Non-competitive producer still survived in the market

Highly supported SMEs and OTOP but lacked of products that were competitive and profitable

Many policy aimed at stimulating export market no matter that product were competitive or profitable

High value of export but still depended on import production factors

Same old solution

Same old solution was to use money as the solution to economic problem

But never fixed problem in the supply side (production) which was the basis of the economy. And the main reasons might be either it was difficult to do so, or too difficult for the government and private sectors which resulted in many hidden agendas.

Same old solution

Populist project Many poverty project Eer-Ar-Torn projects

Help poor people? Or for short-term political benefits?

Problems in the Country Side

Higher credit card debts due to easily card issued

Credit offerings for consumer were everywhere

Fully stimulate property investment to enlighten the business

Money flow from internal and external came into stock market due to low saving interest rate

Problems in the City

Prices of lands, houses and properties, and stocks were increasing

Consumerism High purchasing of foreign luxury products, effected trade

balance Bubbles were created from many forces of market to

stimulate high purchasing activities from all sectors of economic stakeholders

Problems in the Nation

Stocks price went up but not the stock in the production sector which was the basis of the economy

Those were commercial bank, energy, communication, property, and entertainment business

But in production unit still remain the problem of the ability to be “profitability” and “productivity”

Basic wage was not increased New graduates still out of job Majority of people had not benefited from

the recent economic growth

Average debt/household is 134,190 Baht per household (Average 20,000

Baht increasing/household) Formal debt 73.9% Informal debt 26.1%

Research found that 55.2% of the samples had debt payout problem

ผลสำ��รวจกล� มตั�วอย่ �ง 1,187 ทั่��วประเทั่ศของ ศ�นย่�พย่�กรณ์�เศรษฐก"จและธุ�รก"จ มห�ว"ทั่ย่�ล�ย่หอก�รค้'�ไทั่ย่

84% of population had higher expense than income earning due to the increasing of …

price of goods interest gas price

What did they do? Sell personal stuffs Create debt (lend from

their relatives) Withdraw their saving

        

Living with debt ?

From the violation in 3 provinces in the Southern of Thailand:

Song-Kla had number of travelers decrease by 22.7% Rate of hotel reservation in Hat-Yai reduced by 20%

Economist projected that the 2007 economic in Pattani, Yala, and Narativas would increase only by 1% or 0% from 2006

Account for 100,000 million baht economic damages

Southern tourism ?

One thing create tremendous demand, high influence which stimulate Thai southern market

Marketer views as a “Product of the decade”

Quantity demand for over 60 million, create money flow more than 50,000 million baht or nearly 1% of Thai GDP

Stimulate Thai southern market particularly Nakornsri-dhummaracha

Result in increasing air flight on Bangkok- Nakornsri-dhummaracha to serve high demand of travelers

What was a HERO

for the South of Thailand economy ?

Gas price push up to 30 baht/litters since May 19th 2007 may result in;

price of goods energy costs public transportation       

High gas price ?

= price

= Slow economic growth

Fuel price effect costs of production price of goods Inflation demand production

unemployment

Price of goods raise continuously People change their consuming behavior People became more concern on their expenses

Effects many businesses

Fuel price effect

Advantage for

Instant/ fresh food House brand Public transportation Natural gas station Public hospital

Disadvantage for Restaurants Luxury clothing/ accessory, expensive products;

automobile, luxury watch Tourism business, related business Movie theatre, entertainment complex, concert

Politic ?

C oup d'etat Bombs P arty dissolution Corruption

Tourism Political instability Investment

Consumptionalism?

Unlimited wants Cell phone

Motorcycle

Asian trend J-pop fashion De Jung Kuim travel Rain’s concert F4 series

Thais don’t travel Thai, go abroad

In 2006, 55,000 million Baht moved aboard

Other problems

Natural disaster Devastations and flooding Tsunami-Earthquake

Epidemic Bird flu

International trade Trade Barrier Strengthen of Baht value

Bank Interest RateLower than inflation rate

Interest rate

Saving deposit = 0.75% 3 month period time deposit = 2.25% 6 month period time deposit = 2.25% 12 month period time deposit = 2.25% 24 month period time deposit = 2.25%

Inflation rate

Types of investment Liquidity Return Risk

1. Bank Saving High Low Low

2. T reasury Note Moderate Moderate Low

3. Bond/Equity Moderate Moderate Moderate

4. Gold Moderate Unstable Moderate-High

5. Currency Exchanges

Low Unstable Moderate-High

6. Assets Low Unstable Moderate-High

7 . SET, MAI Low-High Unstable Moderate-High

Types of investment

gas price ?

costs of goods inflation Baht value Baht value reliability Switch to keep gold Demand of gold

price of gold!!!

Why did price of gold raise ?

Solution?

Focus to economic activities or investment that either have

possibility to be sold competitive, and profitable

or crate income distribution, money saving in the economy income from foreign country.

Cannot be sold No market Debt of production

Marketing analysis dismiss Non-Marketing knowledge Creativity Quality assurance Competitive advantages

Focus on producer’s needs Ignore what market needs

Capitalism Pros

Efficiently resources allocation Attractive from profitability Freedom to select what to produce Competition Profitability from price setting New production technique to lower

costs, higher profit Resources saving Efficiently resources usage for high

profitability Higher NI

Cons

Some people focus only on benefit but forget morality

Unfair competition in some situation

Wider gap of income Tent to become monopoly

Political involvement of some producer create high bargain over pricing control or price of production factor

Capitalism

HM the King gave an address 9 years ago that do not leave the entire of Thai population with capitalism economy, but do leave some space for the sufficiency economy

Sufficiency Economy and Previous Government

Sufficiency Economy had been used only to be as … Strategic to win the erection Unclear guideline Promote as the Motto and Gimmick

which succeed in political objectives

But still far away from “sufficient living” or sufficiency economy which does not concern money or national GDP

พื้อประมูาณ

มู�ภู�มู�คุ้��มูกิ�นในตั�วท�"ดี�

มู�เหตั�ผล

เงื่�"อนไข้คุ้วามูร��รอบร�� / รอบคุ้อบ /

ระมู�ดีระว�งื่

เงื่�"อนไข้คุ้�ณธรรมูซื่�"อสั�ตัย, / สั�จร�ตั /พื้ากิเพื้�ยร / อดีทน

น-าสั�.

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สัมูดี�ล / มู�"นคุ้งื่ / ย�"งื่ย�น

แนวพระร�ชดำ��ร" และหล�กก�รทั่+�สำ��ค้�ญ

สัร�ป ปร�ชญ�ของเศรษฐก"จพอเพ+ย่ง

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ค้ว�มพอเพ+ย่งหม�ย่ถึ.งค้ว�มพอ

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จะตั'องอ�ศ�ย่ค้ว�มรอบร� 'ค้ว�ม

ค้�ณ์ธุรรมค้ว�มซื่5�อสำ�ตัย่�สำ�จร"ตัและให'ม+ค้ว�มรอบร� 'ทั่+�เหม�ะสำม

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จะตั'องอ�ศ�ย่ค้ว�มรอบร� 'ค้ว�ม

ค้�ณ์ธุรรมค้ว�มซื่5�อสำ�ตัย่�สำ�จร"ตัและให'ม+ค้ว�มรอบร� 'ทั่+�เหม�ะสำม

ทั่�4งน+4รอบค้อบและค้ว�ระม�ดำระว�ง

เงื่�"อนไข้

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แนวปฎิ�บ�ตั�และผลท�"คุ้าดีหมูาย

ค้รอบค้ร�วระดำ�บช�มชนจนถึ.งระดำ�บร�ฐทั่�4งในก�รพ�ฒน�และบร"ห�รประเทั่ศให'ดำ��เน"นไปในทั่�งสำ�ย่กล�งเศรษฐก"จพอเพ+ย่งเป/นปร�ชญ�ช+4ถึ.งก�รดำ��รงอย่� และปฏิ"บ�ตั"ตันของประช�ชนในทั่�กระดำ�บ

โดำย่เฉพ�ะก�รพ�ฒน�เศรษฐก"จเพ5�อให'ก'�วทั่�นตั อโลกย่�ค้โลก�ภู"ว�ตัน�

ตั�4งแตั ระดำ�บค้รอบค้ร�วระดำ�บช�มชนจนถึ.งระดำ�บร�ฐทั่�4งในก�รพ�ฒน�และบร"ห�รประเทั่ศให'ดำ��เน"นไปในทั่�งสำ�ย่กล�ง

เศรษฐก"จพอเพ+ย่งเป/นปร�ชญ�ช+4ถึ.งก�รดำ��รงอย่� และปฏิ"บ�ตั"ตันของประช�ชนในทั่�กระดำ�บ

โดำย่เฉพ�ะก�รพ�ฒน�เศรษฐก"จเพ5�อให'ก'�วทั่�นตั อโลกย่�ค้โลก�ภู"ว�ตัน�

ตั�4งแตั ระดำ�บ คุ้�ณล�กิษณะ

คุ้-าน�ยามู

Reference : Assistant Professor Dr. Suksan Kantabud, Mahidol University, 1st National Conference, Bangkok University, August 2007.

เราจะเล�อกิหาน-าใสั.ตั�.มู หร�อ จะเล�อกิอ�ดีร� ร�"วข้องื่ตั�.มูกิ.อน ?

คุ้.าเทอมูล�กิ

ป�2ยเคุ้มู� ยาฆ่.าแปลงื่

ข้องื่ใชี�ในบ�าน

หวย ! คุ้.าเหล�า คุ้.าบ�หร�"

food

ดีอกิเบ�ย

Application of Sufficiency philosophy for the individual level

เสั�อผ�า

ยาร�กิษาโรคุ้

‘Basis of Thai economy is agricultural

sector’

Sufficiency Principle

Independent

Morality Society Resources Technology Economy

Balance

Human Plants (Forest) Animals Soil Water

Independent

Morality Religion and cultural values in the

community

Society Encourage each community to

coordinate and transfer their own wisdom which will benefit both parties

Resources Effectively utilization of human,

resources and social wisdom

Technology Study, research, and experiment

to create local technology

Economic Rice, meats, vegetable, and fruits

are sufficient in the area and enough to be sold to other region

Independent

Income and expenditure Allocate land into 4 areas

Rice Agricultural plants Fish House and animal farm

+ grow some vegetables

Balances

ActivitiesSufficiency Economy

Capitalism Reflection

Production Aims at consumingLabor = free

Aims at sellingLabor = costsUse technology

Depended on technology, money ไม ย่� �งย่5นในก�รใช'ทั่ร�พย่�กร

Transferring activities

Help each other B arter systemCooperate within community

Marketing Agricultural sector are at the bottom

Depended on export market

Consumption

Consume own production

Buy everything, ConsumerismMedia play major role to purchasing activity

Consumerism

Allocation Community’s rights Patent, legal rights

Individualism

Capitalism vs. Sufficiency

1 .มองก�รณ์�ไกลในก�รบร"ห�รจ�ดำก�รและตั�ดำสำ"นใจในเช"งนโย่บ�ย่ อย่ �งม� งหว�งก��ไรในระย่ะสำ�4นแตั ค้"ดำถึ.งผลกระทั่บในระย่ะย่�ว

2. ให'ค้�ณ์ค้ �แก พน�กง�นอย่ �งจร"งใจและพ�ฒน�พน�กง�นอย่ �งตั อเน5�อง (รวมถึ.งก�รพ�ฒน�พน�กง�นของตันเองให'เป/นผ�'บร"ห�ร) หล+กเล+�ย่งก�รให'พน�กง�นออกแม'แตั ในย่�มทั่�กย่�กทั่�งเศรษฐก"จ เพร�ะพน�กง�นค้5อสำ"นทั่ร�พย่� (ทั่+�พ�ฒน�ไดำ') ขององค้�กร

3. จร"งใจและหว�งดำ+ตั อผ�'ม+สำ วนไดำ'สำ วนเสำ+ย่ของธุ�รก"จทั่�4งหมดำ รวมถึ.งประช�กรและสำ�งค้มในอน�ค้ตั

4. ให'ค้ว�มสำ��ค้�ญตั อก�รพ�ฒน�นว�ตักรรมทั่��วทั่�4งองค้�กร ทั่�4งในสำ วนของผล"ตัภู�ณ์ฑ์�และขบวนก�รให'บร"ก�รหร5อขบวนก�รผล"ตั

5. ใช'ทั่ร�พย่�กรอย่ �งม+ประสำ"ทั่ธุ"ภู�พและประสำ"ทั่ธุ"ผล

Application for Business sector Research work : Dr Apichai

Pannasenผลของก�รศ.กษ�

( แนวทั่�งปฏิ"บ�ตั" 10 ประก�รแห งองค้�กรธุ�รก"จแบบเศรษฐก"จพอเพ+ย่ง)

จ�กก�รว"เค้ร�ะห� (grounded theory) พบว �ธุ�รก"จทั่+�ประสำบค้ว�มสำ��เร<จอย่ �งย่��งย่5นในก�รศ.กษ�น+4 ม+แนวทั่�งในก�รดำ��เน"นธุ�รก"จทั่+�ค้ล'�ย่ก�น 10 แนวทั่�งดำ�งน+4

6. ใช' และ/หร5อพ�ฒน�เทั่ค้โนโลย่+ทั่+�ม+ประสำ"ทั่ธุ"ภู�พแตั ร�ค้�ไม สำ�ง โดำย่เฉพ�ะเทั่ค้โนโลย่+แบบไทั่ย่ ๆ หร5อพ54นบ'�น

7. ขย่�ย่ธุ�รก"จอย่ �งค้ อย่เป/นค้ อย่ไป เม5�อพร'อมทั่�กดำ'�นเทั่ �น�4น

8. ลดำค้ว�มเสำ+�ย่งโดำย่ก�รม+ผล"ตัภู�ณ์ฑ์�ทั่+�หล�กหล�ย่ ตัล�ดำทั่+�หล�กหล�ย่ และก�รลงทั่�นทั่+�หล�กหล�ย่ โดำย่อย่� บนพ54นฐ�นของค้ว�มร� 'จร"ง

9. แบ งป:น รวมถึ.งก�รแบ งป:นองค้�ค้ว�มร� 'ทั่+�ม+เพ5�อพ�ฒน�ตัล�ดำ เพ5�อผลประโย่ชน�ทั่+�ตักแก ผ�'บร"โภูค้และสำ�งค้ม

1 0 .สำร'�งว�ฒนธุรรมองค้�กรทั่+�ม+จร"ย่ธุรรม ค้ว�มอดำทั่นและขย่�นหม��นเพ+ย่รเป/นค้ �น"ย่มพ54นฐ�น

ผลของก�รศ.กษ� ( แนวทั่�งปฏิ"บ�ตั" 10 ประก�รแห งองค้�กรธุ�รก"จ

แบบเศรษฐก"จพอเพ+ย่ง)

Family undependableSociety Sustainable

Community Sufficiency

New picture of Economy

GDP is no more the indicator of economic development, be only part and not core of the it

“Sustainable Development “ became ideal path for every countries

“Bhutan” was an undeveloped country, but outstanding example for this new development, because it was using GDH as the development indicator

Not GDP but GDH (Gross Domestic HAPPINESS)

United Nation’s Development Project (UNDP)began to develop new indicator referring to GDH

Thank you