Resilience thinking

Elin Enfors Kautsky, researcher and theme leader, Stockholm Resilience Center

Multi-Actor Dialogue on Resilience Thinking, Assessments and Mainstreaming Addis Abeba, 12 Nov 2015

At the same time humanity is utterly

dependent on the capacity of the

biosphere to sustain our wellbeing and

development

Humanity is part of the biosphere and

shapes it from local to global scales –

we now live in the Anthropocene

Economy

Society

Biosphere

Our world view

3

Greenhouse

gases

Biodiversity

Land use

Chemical

pollution

Fresh water

Atmospheric

particle loading

Ozone layer

Ocean

acidification

Nitrogen and

phorsphorus

Human wellbeing within planetary boundaries

Rockström et al. Nature, 2009

A safe and just space for humanity

www.oxfam.org

Our analytical focus – the social-ecological system

Regional

ecosyste

ms

Local

ecosystems

Ecosystem

feedbacks

Management practices

Nested

institution

s

Ecological

knowledg

e

InstitutionsLarger

ecosystems

Berkes & Folke 2003, Biggs et al 2015

Foley et al., Science 2005

An ecosystem services perspective on sustainable

development

Agroforestry system

What development paths will provide the

ecosystem services we need?

Developmenttrajectories

Stakeholder needs

Enfors 2013

Resilience – a concept with multiple

meanings

Different aspects of ability to

cope with shock, stress and

disturbance, and continue to

function

Deals with the tension between

persistence and change

Resilience as a systems property

(1) the amount of disturbance a

system can absorb and still remain

within the same state (resistance)

(2) the degree to which the system is

capable of self-organization

(adaptability)

(3) the degree to which the system

can build and increase the capacity

for learning (adaptability &

transformability)

Carpenter 2001

Resilience thinking as a lens for analysis, that

directs attention to:

Key system variables & interactions between these (social-

ecological feedbacks)

Non-linear system change (thresholds in Ecosystem service

provisioning)

Scale-interactions (processes at e.g global levels influence local

ecosystem services)

Shocks, disturbances and drivers for change (abrubt and gradual)

3 things to remember:

Managing resilience is NOT about not changing

Resilience, per se, is neither ‘good’ nor ‘bad’, depends on trajectory

Are we managing for adaptation or transformation? Remember the

first rule of holes!

Guidance for Resilience in the Anthropocene: Investments

for Development - The GRAID program

• Reframing of development, more focus on resilience

• Increased interest and demand in the emerging concept of resilience -

GRP (Rockefeller, USAID, SIDA, DFID, Reinsurers)

• Objective: to increase our understanding of resilience (principles,

theories, empirical evidence) & to develop, operationalize and train in

methods & approaches

Example: E-learning course

Resilience thinking for

development practitioners

1. Facilitate outreach and learning of key resilience concepts through

online teaching modules, for diverse actors

2. Contribute to participant’s capacity to use a resilience approach in

their respective context.

3. Complement and link to existing assessment frameworks and tools

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