meina.cai@uconn.edu

3 × 2 × 3

18× 17

LCF baselineLCF public

LCF dividends

RS baselineRS pension

RL baseline

RL physicalRL dividends

a

= 20 = 38.5

= 16 = 1

a

0.900.85 0.83

0.73

0.56

0.41

0.32

0.250.20

0.12

0.90

0.800.74

0.71

0.61

0.42

0.29

0.17

0.110.08

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Prob

abilit

y of

Opt

ion

1

Decision

Original probabilityAdjusted probablity

i j

Uij Vij

ϵij

Vij

Xj

i

Si

i j

Uij = U(Xj, Si) = V (Xj, Si) + ϵij

A B i

j ∈ {A,B} ≡ J Uij Uik(k ̸= j, k ∈ J)

i j

Pi(j) = Pr(Uij > Uik, k ̸= j, k ∈ J)

= Pr(Vij + ϵij > Vik + ϵik, k ̸= j, k ∈ J)

= Pr(ϵij − ϵik > Vik − Vij, k ̸= j, k ∈ J)

Pr(·)

Pi(j) =eVij

eVij + eVik

Xj Si

V (Xj, Si) = V (x11, ..., xhl, ..., si1, ..., siq, ...)

hl h l

j iq q i

V (Xj, Si) =!

h

(βhlxhl +!

q

γhlqxhl × siq)

xhl

βhl γhlq

V (Xj , Si) = β11LCF public+ β12LCF dividends+ β21RS pension

+ β31RL physical + β32RL dividends

+ γ11qLCF partial × siq + γ12qLCF dividends× siq + γ21qRS pension× siq

+ γ31qRL physical × siq + γ32qRL dividends× siq

RS pension

RS pension RS baseline

RL dividends ×Distrust village

RL dividends × Risk averse

∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗

×

×

×∗

× ×∗

∗

×∗

×∗

∗∗

× × ×

×

×

× × ×

×

×

× × ×∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗∗∗

×

×

× × ×∗

∗∗

∗∗∗∗

×∗

∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗∗

×∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗∗

× × ×∗

∗

N d.f.

∗p<

0.10

∗∗p<

0.05

∗∗∗p<

0.01

0.227 0.199 0.2900.055

0.411

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

LCF_public LCF_dividends RS_pension RL_physical RL_dividends

A: Politial Trust in Local Goverment

0.770 0.794

0.235

-0.240

0.735

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

LCF_public LCF_dividends RS_pension RL_physical RL_dividends

B: Politial Distrust in Local Goverment

-0.0030.200 0.118

-0.159-0.203

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

LCF_public LCF_dividends RS_pension RL_physical RL_dividends

C: Politial Trust in Village

-0.349 -0.250

0.259

-0.403

-1.174

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

LCF_public LCF_dividends RS_pension RL_physical RL_dividends

D: Politial Distrust in Village

-0.413 -0.360

0.227

-0.193-0.692

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

LCF_public LCF_dividends RS_pension RL_physical RL_dividends

E: Risk Averse

-0.505 -0.541

-0.0740.013 -0.304

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

LCF_public LCF_dividends RS_pension RL_physical RL_dividends

F: Risk Seeking

LCF public×Risk seeking LCF dividends×Risk seeking

RL dividends× Income

Trust LG × RS pension

Distrust village × RL dividends

Trust village× LCF dividends

× ∗∗ ∗

× ∗ ∗∗ ∗

× ∗ ∗∗

× ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗

× ∗∗ ∗∗

× ∗∗∗ ∗∗

× ∗∗ ∗

× ∗

× ∗∗

N

d.f.

∗ p < 0.10 ∗∗ p < 0.05 ∗∗∗ p < 0.01

LCF public LCF dividends

http://law.lawtime.cn/d393034398128.html

Trust DK

×

×

×

×

×

×

× ∗ ∗ ∗

×

×

×

×

×

×

×

×

×

×

×

×

× ∗ ∗

×

×

×

×

×

∗ p < 0.10 ∗∗ p < 0.05 ∗∗∗ p < 0.01

∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗

×

×

×∗

× ×∗

∗

×∗

∗

×∗

∗∗

× × ×

×

×

× × ×

×

×

× × ×∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗∗∗

×

×

× × ×∗

∗∗∗

∗∗

×∗

∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗∗

×∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗∗

× × ×

N d.f.

∗p<

0.10

∗∗p<

0.05

∗∗∗p<

0.01

∗∗∗

∗∗

∗∗ ∗∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗

×

×

×∗

∗∗∗

∗

× ×∗

×

×

× × ×

×

×∗

× × ×

×

×

× × ×∗

∗∗

∗∗∗

×∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

∗

×∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗∗

×∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

∗

× ×

×∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

×

× × × ×∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗∗∗∗

N d.f.

∗p<

0.10

∗∗p<

0.05

∗∗∗p<

0.01

∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗

∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

∗

×

×∗∗

× × ×

×∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗∗

×∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

∗

× ×∗

×

×

×∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗∗∗

∗

× ×∗

∗

×

×

×

× × ×

×

×

× ×∗

×∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗∗∗∗

∗∗∗

×

×∗

∗

× × ×∗∗

∗∗

∗

×

N d.f.

∗p<

0.10

∗∗p<

0.05

∗∗∗p<

0.01