SPRING 2014EESC G9910

Atmospheric Science Seminar

Fri 9:15-10:45 Comer 1st Floor Seminar

Room

Jan 24, 2014: Organizational Meeting and Overview (IPCC process; report

highlights)

IPCC AR5 WG1 Report: Course Information

Motivating questions:What are the key findings? On what evidence are they based? Where are there critical knowledge gaps?

FULL FINAL REPORT WILL POST JAN 30.Final SPM is posted: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

Sign up on email list (circulating) • receive course emailsAccess to galley proof version of chapter for next week cannot be publicly distributed:

www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~amfiore/temp/Ch1.pdf

Supplemental readings at course website:www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~amfiore/eescG9910.html

Course participation

a) Sign up for presentation – think about it so we can start assigning by end of class

b) All are welcome to present, students are given first priority in choosing chapters.

Schedule with names will be on course website

b) credit options: 1 point (discussion only)

2 points (discussion + presentation)3 points (discussion + presentation +

paper)

We welcome involvement from the full LDEO community. Feel free to join us whenever possible.

Class Schedule: 14 chapters in 13 weeks

1/31/142/7/14

2/14/142/21/14

3/7/14

3/28/14

2/28/14

3/14/14

4/4/144/11/14

4/18/14

4/25/145/2/14

Guidance on presentations and final paper(additional details posted on course website)

Presentations: focus on the figures and the stories they tell. • Plan on presenting ~15-20 figures per class 

2 options for final Papers (8 page max): Option #1: Choose a “hot” research area topic and critically assess the new findings since the IPCC AR5 WG1 publication freeze date (March 15, 2013). How should the 2013 report be updated in light of these new findings? Option #2: Identify a critical knowledge gap, either explicitly discussed in the report or one that you feel should have been. Write a paper or a research proposal describing the work needed to fill this gap.  

The rest of today

1. A little background on the IPCC process, from AR4AR5 -- slides c/o Thomas Stocker University of Bern, Switzerland, IPCC WG1 co-chair – with Qin Dahe

2. Major highlights from the report -- slides c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, Science Director, WG1 TSU-- available at:

Climat Change Science 2013: Haikuhttp://daily.sightline.org/2013/12/16/the-entire-ipcc-report-in-19-illustrated-haiku/

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule

• Warming in the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations ....

• Most of the observed increase in global averaged temperature ... is very likely due to ... increase in GHG concentrations.

• Continued GHG emissions ... would induce many changes ... that would very likely be larger than those observed ...

IPCC (2007):

c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule

c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule

Principles Governing IPCC Work (1998, 2003, 2006)

[...]

[...]

c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule

Overview of topical groups of chapters in WGI of AR5:

Introduction Chapter 1

Observations and Paleoclimate Information Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5

Process Understanding Chapters 6, 7

From Forcing to Attribution of Climate Change Chapters 8, 9, 10

Future Climate Change and Predictability Chapters 11, 12

Integration Chapters 13, 14

The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch

c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule

FAR 199011 Chapters

SAR 199511 Chapters

TAR 200114 Chapters

AR4 200711 Chapters

AR5 201314 Chapters

sea levelcloudscarbon cycle

Climate Change2013

observations

regional change

paleoclimate

Structure of AR5 in perspective

c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule

May 2010 Bureau selection of Lead AuthorsNov 2010 First LA meeting, Kunming, ChinaMar 2011 Completion of 0-order draftJul 2011 Second LA meetingNov 2011 Completion 1st-order draftApr 2012 Third LA meetingAug 2012 Completion of 2nd-order draftJan 2013 Fourth LA meetingMay 2013 Completion of Final DraftSep 2013 Final Approval Plenary WGIMar 2014 Final Approval Plenary WGIIApr 2014 Final Approval Plenary WGIIISep 2014 Final Approval Plenary Synthesis Report

2010

2012

2011

2013

2014

Sep 2008 Election Co-Chairs & WG Bureaus

July 2009 Scoping Meeting

submitted

31. July 2012

in press, published15. March 2013

Schedule

c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

HIGHLIGHTS: Observations

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

HIGHLIGHTS: Observations

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

HIGHLIGHTS: Observations

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

HIGHLIGHTS: Observations

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

HIGHLIGHTS: Causes (attribution)

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

HIGHLIGHTS: Causes (attribution)

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

HIGHLIGHTS: Projected 21st C temperature changes

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

HIGHLIGHTS: Projected global mean sea level rise

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

2081-2100 range:RCP8.5: 0.45-0.82 mRCP2.6: 0.26-0.55 m

HIGHLIGHTS: Future options

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

Course Goals

Learn the scientific evidence behind headline -and other- statements in AR5.

What are the key findings? On what evidence are they based?

-- models, observations, theory-- strength of evidence

Where are there critical knowledge gaps?

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables

AII.1: Historical Climate System DataAII.2: Anthropogenic EmissionsAII.3: Natural EmissionsAII.4: Abundances of the Well Mixed Greenhouse GasesAII.5: Column Abundances, Burdens, and LifetimesAII.6: Effective Radiative ForcingAII.7: Environmental Data

As in the TAR, to document the numbers behind the figures, generally decadal values

Annex III: Glossary

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

Class Schedule: 14 chapters in 13 weeks

1/31/142/7/14

2/14/142/21/14

3/7/14

3/28/14

2/28/14

3/14/14

4/4/144/11/14

4/18/14

4/25/145/2/14

KerenKen

Nora

Olivia

Cari

Ethan

Chloe