Spotlight on Iran - terrorism-info.org.il · again, Iran’s answers may not satisfy the West. The website warned that, in that case, Russia may join the West in tightening sanctions

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The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center

Highlights of the week:

Iranian reservations over Russia’s “step-by-step” program for resumption of nuclear talks

Revolutionary Guards weekly issues warning to Turkey: if forced to choose, Iran will prefer

Syria over Turkey

Majles Research Center warns about NATO’s new strategy and its consequences for Iran

Preparations begin for launch of monetary reform and drop of zeroes from national

currency

Divorce crisis in Iran: strange reasons for divorce

Pictures of the week: Campaign to enforce Islamic dress code in Tehran


The “step-by-step” program for the resumption of nuclear talks between Iran and

the West, brought up last week by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during

a visit to Washington, was met with reservations from Iran. According to the

Russian proposal, Iran will take steps to address the questions brought up by the

IAEA, and be rewarded for each step along the way by the gradual removal of the

sanctions imposed on it.

July 2011—Tir 1390 Week of July 14-21, 2011

Editor: Raz Zimmt

Spotlight on Iran

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So far Iran has issued no official response to the proposal. However, Majles

National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Chairman Ala’eddin Boroujerdi

said that the proposal would send the talks back to square one, as Iran has

already answered all questions about its nuclear program. Majles member

Mohammad Karami-Rad also had reservations about the Russian proposal, saying

that Iran is unwilling to accept new conditions for the resumption of the talks.

Tabnak, a website affiliated with the pragmatic conservative bloc, also voiced

reservations concerning the Russian proposal. An editorial published by the

website said that the Russian proposal fails to entertain the possibility that, once

again, Iran’s answers may not satisfy the West. The website warned that, in that

case, Russia may join the West in tightening sanctions against Iran, and that the

proposal is designed to set the stage for building a global consensus against it.

The website suggested that the Iranian administration, including the Foreign

Ministry, the Supreme National Security Council, and the Majles National Security

and Foreign Policy Council, hold talks with the Russian administration to obtain

more information about the proposal, which would make it possible to safeguard

Iran’s national interests.

Revolutionary Guards weekly issues warning to Turkey: if forced to choose, Iran will prefer Syria over Turkey

Sobh-e Sadegh, a weekly published on behalf of the Revolutionary Guards,

warned Turkey that, if its current hostile stance towards Syria persists, Iran will

be forced to follow its strategic interests and ideology and prefer Syria over

Turkey. Turkey must understand Iran’s position, act wisely, and not lead Iran to a

point where it has to choose between the two countries.

On the backdrop of the Turkish foreign minister’s visit to Iran last week, the

weekly criticized Turkey’s stance on the developments in Syria, to which it

referred as a Western plot. The weekly accused Turkey of siding with the U.S. and

providing assistance to Syrian dissidents through the Syria-Turkey border.

Meanwhile, the reformist daily E’temad called on the government of Iran to take a

more proactive approach to solving the crisis in Syria. An editorial published by

the daily said that, considering the popularity Iran enjoys with the government of

Syria, it can play a constructive mediating role to resolve the crisis. Iran has to

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help align the demands of the dissidents with the Syrian government, offering

them a way to break out of the dead end and put an end to violence.


Last weekend the Majles Research Center published a report warning about the

new strategy adopted by NATO in recent years and its consequences for Iran’s

national security.

Among other things, the report argues that the deployment of the NATO missile

protection system in Turkey poses a serious threat to Iran’s security. The report

further warns about the organization’s growing political and economic influence

near Iranian borders, its increasing cooperation with Persian Gulf states, and its

intensified efforts in cyber warfare.

The Majles Research Center recommends that Iran’s policy-makers step up

cooperation with the countries in the region, particularly Iraq and Afghanistan,

take action to balance NATO’s growing influence in the region, and take the

necessary measures to improve Iran’s preparedness for the cyber threats it is

facing.

Preparations begin for launch of monetary reform and drop of zeroes from national currency

Last weekend Iran’s Central Bank launched a new website to assist Iranians

through the monetary reform process approved by the government last week, in

which four zeroes will be dropped from the national currency (rial).

According to the Central Bank’s announcement, the website aims to provide

economists, the media, and the Iranian people with accurate information about

the reform, answer questions on the issue, conduct public opinion polls regarding

the reform, host discussion forums, and publish opinions and studies about the

program. Last weekend Central Bank Governor Mahmoud Bahmani estimated that

the reform will take at least three years to complete.

The government’s decision reignited the debate between the reform’s supporters

and critics. According to supporters of the reform, dropping the zeroes will help

curb inflation, as was the case in other countries, like Turkey, that implemented

similar measures. Opponents of the program claim, however, that the reform will

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have no real effect if there is no change in the government’s economic policy, and

that curbing inflation is a necessary prerequisite for implementing the currency

reform.

The economic daily Donya-ye Eqtesad (World of Economy) warned this week that

the authorities may focus their efforts on implementing the national currency

reform instead of addressing the major economic problems facing Iran. Top

economist Sa’id Laylaz also said that dropping the zeroes will have no significant

effect on the Iranian economy under its current conditions. While inflation is

rising, the government is increasing its involvement in economy, and the country

is facing financial difficulties stemming from the subsidy policy reform, a currency

reform has no value, and focusing on its implementation may shift attention from

the major problems of the economy, including inflation, halt of economic growth,

decline of investments in manufacturing, effects of the economic sanctions, rise of

the unemployment rate, “brain drain”, and decrease in petroleum production and

exports.


The divorce rate among Iranian couples is climbing in recent years, and some of

the stranger reasons that drove Iranians to the divorce courts this past year were

reported this week by the Fararu website. The cases covered by the website

include a woman who found out that her husband of five years had been

concealing the fact that his right leg was shorter than his left, a man claiming that

his wife’s behavior changed after she began working as a taxi driver and that she

even started beating him, a woman seeking divorce as she was no longer willing

to have lunch with her mother-in-law every day, a woman who wanted to divorce

her husband as he was spending all his time watching soccer matches, and a man

seeking simultaneous divorce from his three wives: two could not conceive, and

the third gave birth to a blind baby and suffered a severe illness.

The institution of marriage in the Islamic republic is facing a severe crisis in

recent years, reflected in a considerable rise in the age of marriage and significant

increase in the divorce rate.


The “step-by-step” program for the resumption of nuclear talks between Iran and the West,

brought up last week by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during a visit to Washington,

was met with reservations from Iran. According to the Russian proposal, Iran will address

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step by step the questions brought up by the IAEA, and be rewarded along the way by the

gradual removal of the sanctions imposed on it. According to the proposal, Iran will first be

required to address “easy” questions, followed by ones that are more “difficult”.

So far Iran has issued no official response to the proposal. At his weekly press conference,

Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said that Iran has yet to receive the

Russian proposal, and that it will examine it once the proposal has been received (Mehr, July

19). However, Majles National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Chairman Ala’eddin

Boroujerdi said that the Russian proposal would send the talks back to square one, as Iran

has already answered all questions about its nuclear program. He had praise for Russia’s

positive approach and its attempt to remove the obstacles supposedly placed by the West

with regard to the nuclear program, but argued that the proposal does not constitute a

proper solution. He suggested that Western countries go back to the answers already

provided by Iran to questions on its nuclear program to “refresh their memory” about the fact

that its nuclear program is designed for peaceful needs (Press TV, July 16).

Lavrov and Ahmadinejad meet, October 2007

Majles member Mohammad Karami-Rad also had reservations about the Russian proposal,

saying that Iran is unwilling to accept new conditions for the resumption of the talks. He said

that Russia is trying to ease the way for the advancement of Western interests by resuming

the nuclear negotiations with Iran (Press TV, July 16).

Tabnak, a website affiliated with the pragmatic conservative bloc, also voiced reservations

concerning the Russian proposal. An editorial published by the website said that the Russian

proposal fails to entertain the possibility that, once again, Iran’s answers may not satisfy the

West. The website warned that, in that case, Russia may join the West in tightening

sanctions against Iran, and that the proposal is designed to set the stage for building a global

consensus against it. The website warned that if, for instance, Iran answers 8 of 10 questions

to the satisfaction of the West, it is not unlikely that the two remaining questions will be used

to impose additional sanctions against it.

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It is not clear, the article said, whether the Russian proposal is also designed with Iran’s

interests in mind, or is it aimed to play a part in the global power struggle or Russia’s

domestic political power struggles. As long as the precise details of the proposal have not

been made clear, it cannot be given serious consideration.

The website suggested that the Iranian administration, including the Foreign Ministry, the

Supreme National Security Council, and the Majles National Security and Foreign Policy

Committee, hold talks with the Russian administration to obtain more information about the

proposal, which would make it possible to safeguard Iran’s national interests (Tabnak, July

16).

The conservative daily Mellat-e Ma claimed that the Russian proposal was made when it

became clear that the international sanctions against Iran failed, and also in light of the

developments in the Arab world, which turned the Iranian nuclear program into an issue of

secondary importance on the international agenda. According to the daily, Iran’s

determination to continue with its nuclear program and its resistance to the international

sanctions are cause for concern in the West, particularly in the U.S. The West is therefore

trying to pose repeated questions on the nuclear program by bringing up the Russian

proposal.

The daily warned that the Russian proposal may reawaken the international PR atmosphere

against Iran, and reposition the Iranian nuclear program on the international agenda. Iran’s

diplomacy with regard to this issue must therefore be cautious, ensuring that if talks are held

on the Russian proposal, they are based on recognition of Iran’s rights and national interests

(www.mellatonline.ir, July 18).

Revolutionary Guards weekly issues warning to Turkey: if forced to choose, Iran will prefer Syria over Turkey

Sobh-e Sadegh, a weekly published on behalf of the Revolutionary Guards, warned Turkey

that, if its current hostile stance towards Syria persists, Iran will be forced to prefer Syria over

Turkey.

On the backdrop of the Turkish foreign minister’s visit to Iran last week, the weekly criticized

Turkey’s stance on the developments in Syria, to which it referred as a Western plot against

the Syrian government. The weekly accused Turkey of siding with the U.S. and providing

assistance to Syrian dissidents through the Syria-Turkey border. The weekly argued that

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Turkey’s position results from its erroneous assessment that Bashar Assad’s regime is likely to

fall, in which case it may improve its regional position.

The Revolutionary Guards periodical pointed out a significant difference between Syria and

the other Arab countries where riots broke out this year. Unlike Arab countries whose popular

protests were internal and resulted from a long-standing policy of oppression exercised by

the regimes against the people, the riots in Syria broke out as a result of foreign involvement

stemming from the anger felt by the U.S., Western countries, and some Arab countries

towards Syria for its support of the resistance front. These countries assumed that, by

toppling the Bashar Assad regime, supported by the Syrian public, they could compensate

themselves for some of the losses suffered as a result of the riots in the Arab world.

From Iran’s point of view, the Syrian government is able to overcome the challenge it is

facing and resolve its problems only once foreign involvement in its internal affairs stops. The

world is well aware of the relations between Iran and Syria, and Iran should not conceal

them. The developments in Syria are directly tied to Iran’s interests, the weekly argued.

If Turkey’s current hostile stance towards the events in Syria persists, Iran will be forced to

choose between Turkey and Syria, Sobh-e Sadegh said. In that case, Iran will likely follow its

strategic interests and ideology and prefer Syria over Turkey. Turkey must understand Iran’s

position, act wisely, and not lead Iran to a point where it has to choose between the two

countries (Sobh-e Sadegh, July 18).

Last week Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi addressed the differences of opinion

between Iran and Turkey over the crisis in Syria, saying that the three countries need to work

together to resolve it. Speaking at a joint press conference with the Turkish foreign minister,

Salehi said that Syria, Turkey, and Iran are one family, and that if one of them has a

problem, the entire family must work together to find a solution (Tehran Times, July 12). In

an interview to Fars News Agency, Salehi had praise for the measures taken by President

Assad and the Syrian government to fulfill the demands of the Syrian people. He condemned

the foreign intervention in Syria’s domestic affairs, while also calling on the government of

Syria to address the demands of its people (Fars, July 17).

Meanwhile, the reformist daily E’temad called on the government of Iran to increase its

involvement in solving the crisis in Syria. An editorial published by the daily said that Iran has

to take a more proactive approach to the Syrian issue. Considering the popularity Iran enjoys

with the government of Syria, it can play a constructive mediating role to resolve the crisis.

Iranian diplomats should condemn the violence employed by both sides, which can make a

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political solution impossible. In addition, the Iranian government must strongly condemn the

Western involvement in Syria’s affairs, which not only won’t help resolve the crisis, but

exacerbate it further. Iran has to help align the demands of the dissidents with the Syrian

government, offering them a way to break out of the dead end and put an end to violence

(E’temad, July 18).


Last weekend the Majles Research Center published a report warning about the new strategy

adopted by NATO in recent years and its consequences for Iran’s national security. The

report goes into considerable detail about the various components of “NATO’s new strategy”

and its effect on the security of the Islamic republic. In addition, the report includes

recommendations aimed to help Iran better contend with NATO’s growing involvement near

its borders.

The report covers six main aspects of NATO’s new strategy and its consequences for Iran:

1.The organization’s strategy on long-range missiles and nuclear weapons. The authors

of the report note that NATO considers Iran’s nuclear program a threat to be

addressed, arguing that the deployment of NATO’s missile protection system in Turkey

and near Iran’s borders must be considered a serious threat to its security. The report

discusses the increasing cooperation between NATO, the Persian Gulf states, and

Russia to keep Iran in check with its nuclear program, a trend which, according to the

authors, poses a challenge to Tehran.

2.The report discusses NATO’s growing presence on the political and economic scenes,

which has consequences of its own for Iran’s security. The authors of the report

specifically mention NATO’s presence in Afghanistan, arguing that the training of

Afghan forces by NATO may entrench the organization’s influence near the borders of

Iran even after the withdrawal of Western forces from Afghanistan, scheduled for

2014. The Majles Research Center suggests taking diplomatic measures and stepping

up Iran’s cooperation with the countries in the region, particularly Iraq and

Afghanistan, where NATO forces are stationed, to balance the organization’s growing

influence. The authors of the report also suggest using PR and public diplomacy to

expose “the true objectives” of the organization’s presence in the region.

3.The report warns about NATO’s efforts to expand its cooperation with the neighbors

of Iran. According to the assessment of the Majles Research Center, the internal

instability in pro-Western Arab countries may further deepen their relations with NATO,

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and Iran has to take action to prevent NATO from attaining its political objectives in

the region.

4.The report discusses the U.S.’ pursuit of protecting its strategic energy interests

through NATO’s military presence in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. This

presence, designed to serve U.S. interests, also poses a threat to Iran, which strives to

have the security of the Persian Gulf be based on the countries of the region, without

foreign involvement.

5.The report warns about the increasing cooperation between NATO and Persian Gulf

states in such diverse fields as intelligence and technology exchange and military

training. Iran has to further develop its ties with these countries and try to increase the

cost of NATO’s presence in the region.

6.Another field addressed in the report is NATO’s growing cyber efforts. The report

indicates that NATO’s cyber activities are on the rise, as are its efforts in cyber

defense. The Majles Research Center suggests taking the necessary measures to

increase Iran’s cyber presence and improve its ability to defend itself against such

threats (Majles website, July 15).

Preparations begin for launch of monetary reform and drop of zeroes from national currency

Last weekend Iran’s Central Bank launched a new website to assist Iranians through the

monetary reform process approved by the government last week, in which four zeroes will be

dropped from the national currency (rial).

According to the Central Bank’s announcement, the website (reform.cbi.ir) aims to provide

economists, the media, and the Iranian people with accurate information about the reform,

answer questions on the issue, conduct public opinion polls regarding the reform, host

discussion forums, and publish opinions and studies about the program. This week the

Central Bank launched a public opinion poll among the website users, one of whose

objectives was to suggest a name for the new currency. Of the four suggested options

(“toman”, “rial”, “parsi”, and “darik”), “parsi” currently ranks number one among the website

users polled so far.

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The homepage of “The National Currency Reform Plan”

According to a special announcement released by the Central Bank, in the past two years its

experts examined the various aspects of the reform and submitted their conclusions to the

government ahead of the session where the reform was approved. One of the issues brought

up during the government session was the need to provide the public with the necessary

information about the reform, whose implementation is the responsibility of the Central Bank

deputy governor for economic affairs. The deputy governor heads a special think tank that

has held weekly meetings these past several months to discuss the various aspects pertaining

to the implementation of the plan (Central Bank website, www.cbi.ir, July 13).

Last week the government made a final decision to drop four zeroes from the national

currency. The decision still requires the approval of the Majles. Central Bank Governor

Mahmoud Bahmani estimated that the reform will take at least three years to complete (Fars,

July 11).

The plan to drop zeroes from the local currency was brought up several years ago as part of

the efforts to deal with the inflation crisis, which severely devalued the Iranian currency and

forced the Central Bank to print 50,000 and 100,000-rial banknotes. In August 2008 the

government established a special committee to investigate the consequences of a monetary

reform where three or four zeroes would be dropped from the local currency.

According to supporters of the reform, dropping the zeroes will help curb inflation, as was the

case in other countries, like Turkey, that implemented similar measures. Opponents of the

program claim, however, that the reform will have no real effect if there is no change in the

government’s economic policy, and that curbing inflation is a necessary prerequisite for

implementing the currency reform.

The economic daily Donya-ye Eqtesad (World of Economy) warned this week that the

authorities may focus their efforts on implementing the national currency reform at the

expense of the major economic problems facing Iran. An editorial published by the daily said

that the plan to drop four zeroes form the local currency must not be allowed to become the

top economic priority, as it won’t provide a solution to the major problems facing the

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economy as a result of the subsidy policy reform and the economic sanctions imposed on

Iran. By giving too much attention to the monetary reform, the government, Majles

members, media, and economic experts may find themselves neglecting the key challenges

facing the Iranian economy, further escalating the inflation crisis, the daily said (Donya-ye

Eqtesad, July 16).

Top economist Sa’id Laylaz also said that dropping the zeroes will have no significant effect

on the Iranian economy under its current conditions. The objectives of the reform can be

attained only after inflation has been curbed and economic liberalization has been achieved.

While Iran’s inflation is rising, the government is increasing its involvement in economy, and

the country is facing financial difficulties stemming from the subsidy policy reform, a currency

reform has no value. Focusing on the implementation of the reform, which requires

considerable resources and will likely have no significant effect, may shift attention from the

real problems of the Iranian economy, including inflation, halt of economic growth, decline of

investments in manufacturing, effects of the economic sanctions, rise of the unemployment

rate, “brain drain”, and decrease in petroleum production and exports (Sharq, July 14).


The divorce rate among Iranian couples is climbing in recent years, and some of the stranger

reasons that drove Iranians to the divorce courts this past year were reported this week by

the Fararu website.

An Iranian man told the court that he was still renting an apartment after eight

years or marriage, and that his wife did not permit him to buy a house as she believed

the money was best kept in the bank.

A 25-year-old woman claimed in court that her husband had kept his illness a secret

for years. Only after five years of marriage did she find out that his right leg was

shorter than his left. She insisted that she could not bear that fact, even though she

was aware of another fact during that entire time: her husband was a hashish addict.

A 60-year-old man went to divorce court after his wife had started working as a taxi

driver and lost her “feminine spirit”. He told the court that his wife’s behavior had

changed completely ever since she became a taxi driver, and that she had started

beating him for disagreeing with her.

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A man claimed that his wife had been lying about her real age in the two years they

were married. He said she had told him she was 18 when they got married, even

though she was older. He had discovered her real age when he happened to look at

her I.D. The man noted that he could not live with someone who lied on such an

important issue.

www.fararu.ir, July 16

A 22-year-old woman who was married for 10 months told the court that she was

no longer willing to have lunch with her mother-in-law every day, and that she was

therefore interested in getting a divorce. When the couple got married, the woman

said, her husband had promised that his mother would not be staying with them

permanently, but he did not keep his promise.

A young woman demanded a divorce because her husband was spending all of his

time watching Iranian and European soccer matches and ignoring her.

A woman who was married for ten years wished to divorce her husband since he

was working in an “undignified profession”. The woman claimed that, in the beginning

of their marriage, her husband was working for a private firm, but he was laid off

several years later and was employed as a truck driver at a friend’s auto repair shop.

He was not looking for a job that would offer a higher “social standing”, so she decided

to file for a divorce.

A woman sought divorce after her husband allegedly became mentally ill as a result

of drug use and started claiming that she was the devil.

A man wished to divorce his wife of five months for going to parties he did not like.

A man wished to divorce his three wives all at once. He claimed that his first wife

did not get pregnant, which is why he married a second wife, who suffered from the

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same problem and could not get pregnant. He then chose a third wife who did get

pregnant and had two boys. Unfortunately, one of them was blind and the woman

became ill with a serious blood disease. The man told the court that while the three

women lived with him and treated him well, he could no longer stand his misfortune

and wished to live alone (Fararu, July 16).

The institution of marriage in the Islamic republic is facing a severe crisis in recent years,

reflected in a considerable rise in the age of marriage and significant increase in the divorce

rate. According to figures released by the National Organization for Civil Registration, on

average, one of seven marriages ends in divorce. The divorce rate in Tehran is even higher. A

total of 137,200 Iranian couples divorced in 2010-2011, compared to 125,747 in 2009-2010,

110,510 in 2008-2009, and 99,852 in 2007-2008 (www.sabteahval.ir).

Pictures of the week: Campaign to enforce Islamic dress code in Tehran

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Documents

Spotlight on Iran - terrorism-info.org.il · again, Iran’s answers may not satisfy the West. The website warned that, in that case, Russia may join the West in tightening sanctions