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ממ""ללממ(( ןןייעעיידדווממהה תתששררווממלל זזככררממהה ) ררווררטטללוו ןןייעעיידדווממלל עעדדייממהה זזככררממ

ממ""ללממ(( ןןייעעיידדווממהה תתששררווממלל זזככררממהה ) ררווררטטללוו ןןייעעיידדווממלל עעדדייממהה זזככררממ

Main events of the week

The Syrian army is recording achievements in the campaign for the takeover of

southern Syria: it has completed the takeover of the enclave of the rebel organizations

east of Daraa and its forces, together with Russian Military Police, have entered the Naseeb

border crossing between Syria and Jordan. The Syrian army took control of a number of

outposts along the Syrian-Jordanian border and is deployed in villages on the outskirts of the

Yarmouk Basin, which is controlled by ISIS. The city of Daraa is surrounded on all sides, and

the majority of its territory is controlled by the Syrian army and the forces supporting it.

These steps by the Syrian army were carried out as part of the Russian-mediated

ceasefire agreement with the rebel organizations, which was achieved on July 6, 2018.

The agreement includes clauses stipulating the cessation of hostilities in the Daraa area; the

handing over of heavy and medium arms to the Syrian army; the handing over of the Naseeb

border crossing; the return of displaced persons to their homes; the deployment of the Syrian

army along the border with Jordan and the evacuation of rebels who are not prepared to lay

down their arms to the Idlib Province, together with their families. Most of these clauses have

apparently been carried out in practice.

The ceasefire agreement applies to the Daraa area and does not include the Syrian

Golan Heights. The two dominant jihadi organizations in the Syrian Golan Heights are now

preparing for an attack by the Syrian army. The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-

Sham (formerly the Al-Nusra Front) carried out quick training for its operatives. The ISIS-

affiliated Khaled bin al-Walid Army in the Yarmouk Basin is making an effort to recruit new

operatives and put on a show of military strength to raise morale. ISIS operatives from the

Horan Province carried out a mass-casualty suicide bombing attack against a Syrian and

Russian army force in a village bordering the southern outskirts of the Yarmouk Basin, which

had just been taken over by the Syrian army.

Spotlight on Global Jihad July 5-11, 2018

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The military and political moves currently taking place in southern Syria have long-

term significance, because they reflect a process of shaping the nature of the borders of

the Syrian state vis-à-vis Jordan and Israel (after the Assad regime takes over most of the

territory of Syria). The Syrian regime has already recorded a significant achievement vis-

à-vis Jordan, i.e., regaining control of the Naseeb border crossing (for the first time since

2015) and posts along the Syrian-Jordanian border. In the future, this will make it difficult for

the rebel organizations to maintain support channels with Jordan and will expedite the

process of weakening them. It will also enable the resumption of the movement of goods

and people between Syria and Jordan, thereby making a significant contribution to the

economies of both countries.

The nature of the Syrian-Israeli border on the Golan Heights is expected to be shaped

in the near future. This issue is expected to be raised, together with a number of other topics

related to Syria, at the meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Russian

President Putin (July 11, 2018) and at the summit meeting scheduled to take place between

the presidents of the United States and Russia (July 16, 2018).

Russian involvement in Syria Talks between Israel, Russia and the United States on the situation in Syria

The issue of the Golan Heights was discussed at a meeting between Israel’s Prime Minister,

Russia’s Special Envoy on Syria Alexander Lavrentiev and Russia’s Deputy Foreign

Minister Sergey Vershinin (July 10, 2018). On July 11, 2018, Israel’s Prime Minister is

expected to arrive in Russia for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In a

statement, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office said that Netanyahu would make it clear that

“Israel will not tolerate a military presence by Iran or its proxies anywhere in Syria and

that Syria must strictly abide by the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement.” On July 16,

2018, a summit meeting between the presidents of the United States and Russia is

expected to take place in Helsinki. These talks will probably include issues related to the

situation in Syria, including the issue of the Golan Heights.

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The Prime Minister of Israel at a meeting with Russia’s Special Envoy on Syria Alexander Lavrentiev (right) and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin (left) (www.gov.il,

photo: Amos Ben Gershom, Israel Government Press Office, July 10, 2018)

Syria The campaign in southern Syria

The situation on the ground

The Syrian army has completed its takeover of the rebel organizations’ enclave east of

Daraa. The Syrian forces entered the Naseeb border crossing between Syria and Jordan

uninterruptedly and from there proceeded westward along the Syrian-Jordanian border.

They took control of dozens of posts near the border and positioned themselves in the

villages of Tal Shihab and Zizoun in the southern outskirts of the area controlled by ISIS

in the Yarmouk Basin. A Syrian army commander said that by July 7, 2018, 90% of the area

had been liberated. According to him, the objective of the High Command was to prevent

bloodshed and facilitate the return of civilians to their homes (Khotwa; Dimashq al-Aan, July

7, 2018).

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Map of the deployment of the forces in southern Syria (updated to July 9, 2018): the areas that the Syrian army entered under the ceasefire agreement are marked in blue; the enclave of the

rebel organizations that the Syrian army took over since the beginning of the campaign is marked in red; the control area of the ISIS-affiliated Khaled bin al-Walid Army is marked in black;

the control area of the rebel organizations (including the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham) in the Golan Heights is marked in green (Khotwa, July 9, 2018)

On July 9, 2018, the Syrian army entered the villages of Tal Shihab and Zizoun, near the

Syrian-Jordanian border. Thus the Syrian forces completed their movement westwards and

established themselves in the southern outskirts of the area controlled by the ISIS-

affiliated Khaled bin al-Walid Army. This is in preparation for the takeover of the Yarmouk

Basin as part of the Syrian army’s takeover of the Syrian Golan Heights. The entry of the

Syrian army into the village of Zizoun, on the outskirts of the Yarmouk Basin, caused an initial

friction with the Khaled bin al-Walid Army. On July 10, 2018, there were local clashes between

them in the town of Al-Qusayr (northwest of Zizoun) (Khotwa, July 10, 2018).

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The villages of Tal Shihab (1) and Zizoun (2) (Google Maps)

Right: Syrian army tank in Tal Shihab (SANA, July 9, 2018). Left: Residents of Tal Shihab cheering and waving photos of Syrian President Bashar Assad (SANA, July 9, 2018)

Right: Syrian army force in the village of Zizoun. Left: The village of Zizoun, which looks abandoned (SANA, July 9, 2018)

ISIS suicide bombing attack in the village of Zizoun

On July 10, 2018, ISIS’s Hauran Province claimed responsibility for the suicide

bombing attack in the village of Zizoun. According to ISIS’s claim of responsibility, the

attack was carried out by ISIS operative Abu Zubair al-Ansari against a concentration of

Syrian and Russian army forces. According to ISIS, more than 35 people were killed,

including a Syrian officer, and at least 15 others were wounded. In addition, two tanks and a

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number of vehicles belonging to the Syrian and Russian forces were destroyed

(www.k1falh.ga, an ISIS-affiliated website, July 10, 2018). So far, no official Syrian sources

have commented on the attack.

The scene of the suicide bombing attack in the village of Zizoun (Khotwa, July 10, 2018)

The city of Daraa

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, most (over 72%) of the territory

of the city of Daraa is controlled by the Syrian army and the forces supporting it. The city

is now surrounded on all sides (Al-Arabiya Al-Hadath, July 8, 2018). There are exchanges of

fire in the city itself. The neighborhoods that are still under the control of the rebels are

subject to artillery fire and airstrikes.

Ceasefire agreement between the Syrian army and the rebel forces

On July 6, 2018, the Syrian regime and the rebel organizations in southern Syria affiliated

with the Free Syrian Army announced that a Russian-brokered ceasefire had been reached

between them. The agreement includes the eastern enclave of the rebel organizations and

the positions of the rebel organizations along the Syrian-Jordanian border, up to the area

controlled by ISIS. The ITIC does not have a single authorized version of the agreement, but

rather a number of versions, including those of the Free Syrian Army, the Headquarters for

the Liberation of Al-Sham, and Russia. These versions are fairly similar but occasionally may

differ in detail and emphasis.

Following are the highlights of the agreement, based on the information in the hands

of the ITIC:

Cessation of the fighting: The fighting will cease throughout the entire Daraa

Province (i.e., the agreement does not include the Quneitra Province).

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Surrendering heavy and medium arms: The rebel organizations will gradually

surrender their heavy and medium weapons in all the places under their control

(Note: a version published by the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham states

that in return, the Syrian army will return to the places where it had been before the

campaign for the takeover of southern Syria began).

Restoring the Syrian regime’s control over the Naseeb border crossing: The

Syrian army will gain control over the crossing with the assistance of the Russian

Military Police. The crossing will be operated under Russian supervision and Syrian

sovereignty (the Syrian flag will fly in the area).

The return of the displaced persons to their homes and the return to normal

life: All the displaced persons who fled in the wake of the fighting will return to their

places of residence. The civilian authorities will resume operating as quickly as

possible and will reopen traffic arteries in order to enable travel by residents and the

restoration of economic activity.

Deployment of the Syrian army along the Jordanian border: The observation

posts of the rebel organizations along the border with Jordan will be handed over to

the Syrian army.

Evacuation of rebels to the Idlib Province: Rebel operatives who are not prepared

to lay down their arms will be evacuated to the Idlib Province along with their

families.

Guarantees regarding the rebel organizations: A version published by the

“Central Operations Room in the South,” which is affiliated with the Free Syrian Army,

said that the Russian side would be in charge of implementing the agreement. The

announcement also said that the safety of the rebel organizations would be

guaranteed and that the Syrian army would refrain from attacking them.

According to Abu Shimaa, spokesman for one of the operations rooms subordinate to the

central operations room of the rebel organizations, the ceasefire agreement includes the

areas under the control of the rebel forces, from Basra al-Sham to the Yarmouk Basin

(i.e., the enclave of the rebel organizations east of Daraa and the Syrian-Jordanian border

area of to the southern Yarmouk Basin). On the other hand, the areas controlled by the

rebel organizations in the rural area northwest of Daraa and the Quneitra [Province] are

outside the agreement (Enab Baladi, July 8, 2018).

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The implementation of the agreement (initial assessment)

In general, the agreement is being implemented on the ground, although not all of its

clauses have been implemented so far. The Syrian forces took over the enclave east of

Daraa, entered the Naseeb border crossing and deployed along the Syrian-Jordanian border

(although there were some difficulties in the deployment of the Syrian army along the border

with Jordan). In addition, the rebel organizations surrendered some of their weapons to the

Syrian army. However, at a meeting with Russian representatives at the Naseeb border

crossing, the rebel organizations claimed that some of the clauses were not being carried out

properly or were not being carried out at all (Al-Jazeera Channel, July 7, 2018).

To date, some 1,000 fighters and their families have expressed a desire to be

evacuated to the Idlib area, as part of the ceasefire agreement. These fighters are about to

be evacuated under the supervision of the Russian Military Police (Al-Haqiqa, Xeber24.org,

July 9, 2018).

The Syrian army takes control of the Naseeb border crossing

On July 6, 2018, a Syrian military force entered the Naseeb border crossing between

Syria and Jordan. The crossing was taken over without any resistance. The Syrian

soldiers waved Syrian flags and photos of President Bashar Assad at the crossing. The rebel

organizations left behind three APCs and ammunition (Twitter account of the Syrian army’s

Central Information Office, July 6, 2018; SANA, July 7, 2018). A Russian Military Police force

is stationed at the crossing in a supervisory capacity, as stipulated in the ceasefire

agreement (AFP, July 7, 2018; Al-Arabiya Al-Hadath, July 7, 2018).

Syrian army soldiers at the Naseeb border crossing, waving photos of the Syrian president and Syrian flags (SANA, July 7, 2018)

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Naseeb border crossing on the border between Syria and Jordan – view from above (Twitter account of the Syrian army’s Central Information Office, July 7, 2018)

APC and ammunition crates left behind by the rebel organizations at the Naseeb crossing (SANA, July 7, 2018)

Russian Military Police personnel at the Naseeb border crossing (Asrar Al-Usbu’a, July 7, 2018)

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The return of the Naseeb crossing to the hands of the Syrian regime, for the first time since

2015, represents a significant achievement for the Assad regime. The Syrian regime’s

control over the crossing and the border between Syria and Jordan will make it difficult for

the rebel organizations to maintain their contact with Jordan. The opening of the

crossing will also enable the resumption of the movement of goods and people between

Syria and Jordan, significantly contributing to the economy of both countries. Russia’s

involvement in running the crossing is yet another indication of Russia’s major impact on

the new reality emerging in southern Syria, which may also continue into the next phase

of the Syrian army takeover of the Syrian Golan Heights.

Jihadi organizations in the Syrian Golan Heights

Overview

The ceasefire agreement reached with the rebel organizations did not include the two jihadi

organizations operating in the Syrian Golan Heights: the Headquarters for the

Liberation of Al-Sham (formerly the Al-Nusra Front), which represents a significant

component among the rebel organizations deployed in the Syrian Golan Heights; and the

ISIS-affiliated Khaled bin Al-Walid Army, which is deployed in the Yarmouk Basin, in the

southern Syrian Golan Heights.

The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham

The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham released an announcement claiming

that it had rejected a Russian proposal to include it in the ceasefire agreement.

According to the announcement, its position is that “death is preferable to humiliation”

(Ibaa Magazine, Issue No. 4, July 5, 2018).

In the meantime, the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham takes advantage of the

lull in the fighting to prepare for the Syrian army’s imminent attack in the Syrian Golan

Heights. As part of these preparations, the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham

announced that the first training session for the organization operatives at the training

camp called “Repelling the Aggression” had ended. The purpose of the camp is to train

fighters quickly to withstand the Syrian regime attacks in the area (Ibaa Magazine, Issue

No. 4, July 5, 2018).

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Fighters of the first session of quick training in the training camp of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham

(Ibaa Magazine, Issue No. 4, July 5, 2018)

The ISIS-affiliated Khaled bin Al-Walid Army

The Syrian army takeover of the southern and eastern outskirts of the Yarmouk Basin

represents an existential challenge for ISIS enclave in the southern Syrian Golan

Heights. In view of this situation, the Khaled bin Al-Walid Army started to operate

recruitment offices in the Yarmouk Basin, in advance of the imminent campaign against

the Syrian army. On July 8, 2018, the Khaled bin Al-Walid Army released photos showing the

organization operatives receiving new operatives at recruitment offices which were opened

to fight against the Syrian and Russian armies (Haqq, July 8, 2018).

Operatives of the Khaled bin Al-Walid Army receive men who arrived to register at the organization’s recruitment office in the Yarmouk Basin (Haqq, July 8, 2018)

At the same time, the Khaled bin Al-Walid Army held a military show of force in the

Yarmouk Basin (July 3, 2018), intended to raise the morale of the operatives and

encourage local residents to join its forces. A video released by ISIS shows a tank and a

column of off-road vehicles with masked men. The speaker in the video calls on residents of

the Hauran region to join the ranks of the organization (Amaq, July 4, 2018).

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Right: Off-road vehicles and operatives of the Khaled bin Al-Walid Army during a military show of force in the Yarmouk Basin (Syria TV, July 4, 2018). Left: Tank of the Khaled bin Al-Walid Army

during the military show of force of the organization in the Yarmouk Basin (Amaq, July 4, 2018)

Iranian Revolutionary Guards officer killed east of Quneitra

On July 3, 2018, it was reported that Mohammad Ebrahim Rashidi, an Iranian

Revolutionary Guards officer in the rank of lieutenant, was killed in clashes with the Free

Syrian Army in the village of Deir al-Adas, about 28 km east of Quneitra (FSA

News@FSAPlatform Twitter account, affiliated with the Free Syrian Army, July 3, 2018). The

Syrian army campaign in the south includes Shiite militias handled by Iranian officers,

and the dead officer was probably one of them.

Left: Lieutenant Mohammad Ebrahim Rashidi, an Iranian Revolutionary Guards officer who was killed in the village of Deir al-Adas (FSA News@FSAPlatform Twitter account [affiliated with the

Free Syrian Army], July 3, 2018)

Displaced persons return to their places of residence

According to a UN report (updated to July 9, 2018), over 320,000 people were driven out

of their homes due to the fighting (many of them women, children and sick people). About

half of the displaced persons are near the border between Syria and Jordan. About 164,000

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displaced persons are in the Quneitra region in the Syrian Golan Heights (website of the

Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, July 3 and 9, 2018). The

displaced persons live in makeshift camps, under dire humanitarian conditions, without food

and water and sometimes even without shelter.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (July 9, 2018), over 200,000

displaced persons from the Daraa area returned to their homes. Most of the returning

people are displaced persons who had stayed near the Syrian-Jordanian border. Part of them

agreed to return to their villages only after the Russians had given them guarantees that

the Syrian regime would not harm them.

Displaced persons camps near the Israeli and Jordanian borders – satellite photos (updated to July 7, 2018) (photos and interpretation courtesy of

ImageSat International - ISI)

Displaced persons camps near the Israeli and Jordanian borders – satellite photos (updated to July 7, 2018) (photos and interpretation courtesy of ImageSat International - ISI)

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Concentrations of displaced persons along the borders of Israel and Jordan (ImageSat International - ISI)

Dozens of displaced persons camps near the border between Israel and Syria (ImageSat International - ISI)

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Displaced persons camps near the Syrian-Israeli border (ImageSat International - ISI)

IMAGE

Displaced persons camps near the Israeli-Syrian border (ImageSat International - ISI)

Displaced persons camps near the Syrian-Jordanian border (ImageSat International - ISI)

Eastern Syria

Albukamal area

On July 7, 2018, International Coalition planes carried out airstrikes against ISIS

targets in the village of Hajin, about 25 km north of Albukamal and around it (an area still

under ISIS control). The airstrikes are reportedly carried out in preparation for a ground

operation by the SDF forces which will be launched in the coming days in order to mop

up the east bank of the Euphrates River from ISIS operatives. A day earlier, on July 7,

2018, Coalition forces fired mortar shells at the village of Hajin and its environs (Syrian

Observatory for Human Rights, July 8, 2018).

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The village of Hajin (Google Maps)

Main developments in Iraq ISIS activity

Suicide bombing in Baiji

On July 9, 2018, ISIS announced that at least 40 members of the Iraqi security forces

had been killed and wounded in an attack carried out by two of its operatives. The two, who

wore explosive vests, stormed the headquarters of the Popular Mobilization 31st Brigade near

the Baiji refineries. The ISIS operatives engaged the local forces for several hours and finally

detonated their explosive vests (www.k1falh.ga, website affiliated with ISIS, July 9, 2018). On

the other hand, according to official Iraqi sources, two suicide bombers attacked a staging

zone near the Baiji refinery. One of them was captured, and the other, who blew himself up,

killed four members of the Iraqi security forces and wounded another (Al-Sumaria News, July

9, 2018).

Terrorist attacks in the Baqubah area

This week, there were terrorist and guerrilla attacks in the area of the city of

Baqubah, north of Baghdad. This activity included the killing of eight Shiite civilians in an

ambush south of Baqubah; killing and wounding four Popular Mobilization operatives in a

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village north of Baqubah; killing an Iraqi soldier by sniper fire northeast of Baqubah; the

execution of an Iraqi soldier and a Popular Mobilization operative who were captured in an

ISIS ambush east of Baqubah (reports in www.k1falh.ga, website affiliated with ISIS, July 6

and 7, 2018).

Right: Iraqi army soldier captured in an ISIS ambush east of Baqubah, moments before being executed. Left: Two Kalashnikov assault rifles and a gun of a soldier and a Popular Mobilization operative captured in an ISIS ambush (www.k1falh.ga, website affiliated with ISIS, July 7, 2018)

Preventive and counterterrorist activity of the Iraqi security forces

Operation Shahid Revenge

The Iraqi security forces are now conducting an operation to mop up the area west of

Kirkuk from ISIS operatives. Fariq (field marshal) Ra’ed Shaker Jawdat, commander of the

police forces, said that during the operation, 171 villages had been mopped up, 32 hideouts

were destroyed, 48 IEDs were neutralized, 24 ISIS tunnels and training centers were

destroyed, five canisters of C4 plastic explosives were found, a house containing 16 IEDs was

blown up, and a workshop for manufacturing rockets was found (Al-Sumaria News, July 7,

2018). These achievements of the Iraqi security forces indicate the depth of the military

infrastructure that ISIS still has in Iraq, in the Kirkuk area and in other areas in the

northern and western regions of Iraq.

Bullet-proof vehicles and members of the Iraqi security forces during Operation Shahid Revenge of the Iraqi security forces west of Kirkuk (Al-Sumaria News, July 6, 2018)

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Tunnels and IEDs uncovered in the Mosul area

The Iraqi security forces found 12 IEDs and nine tunnels in the area of Mosul. One of the

tunnels, which was booby-trapped, was blown up. Another tunnel, northwest of Mosul, was

attacked in a Coalition airstrike, killing 20 ISIS operatives who were hiding there (Al-Sumaria

News, July 9, 2018).

Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula ISIS attacked an Egyptian force on the coastal road near Rafah

Recently, ISIS has increased its guerrilla activity against the Egyptian security forces

in the northern Sinai Peninsula. According to an ISIS report from July 6, 2018, its operatives

attacked a concentration of Egyptian army forces on the coastal road near Rafah, for the

second time in a week. Ten Egyptian soldiers were killed and wounded. ISIS also reported

that it had fired RPG rockets at an Egyptian army checkpoint near the Rafah port (Haqq, July

7, 2018).

On July 9, 2018, ISIS’s Sinai Province released photos documenting the execution of Jamil

Jum’ah Hamad, who was suspected of collaboration with the Egyptian army south of Rafah.

The photos show Hamad digging his own grave and then being beheaded by an ISIS

operative (www.k1falh.ga, website affiliated with ISIS, July 9, 2018).

Jihadi activity in other countries Tunisia

Tunisian National Guard patrol attacked

Tunisian authorities reported that on July 8, 2018, “terrorist operatives” attacked a

patrol of the Tunisian National Guard in Ayn Sultan, northwestern Tunisia (near the

border between Tunisia and Algeria). Six patrol members were killed and three wounded. The

Uqba bin Nafi Battalion, known as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM, the Al-Qaeda

branch in North Africa) claimed responsibility for the attack (Al-Bawaba, July 9, 2018).

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Right: Ayn Sultan, where the attack took place (Google Maps). Left: Vehicles of the Tunisian National Guard (Al-Bawaba, July 9, 2018)