20
Important disclosures appear at the back of this report GP Bullhound LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority GP Bullhound Inc is a member of FINRA GP Bullhound Sidecar III is an investor in Spotify. GP Bullhound is not or has not been engaged as an advisor to or received compensation from Spotify. Dealmakers in Technology $55bn by 2020 SPOTIFY

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Page 1: SPOTIFY - GP Bullhound · GP Bullhound Sidecar III is an investor in Spotify. GP Bullhound is not or has not been engaged as an advisor to or received compensation from Spotify

Important disclosures appear at the back of this report GP Bullhound LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority

GP Bullhound Inc is a member of FINRA GP Bullhound Sidecar III is an investor in Spotify. GP Bullhound is not or has not been engaged as an

advisor to or received compensation from Spotify.

Dealmakers in Technology

$55bn by 2020SPOTIFY

Page 2: SPOTIFY - GP Bullhound · GP Bullhound Sidecar III is an investor in Spotify. GP Bullhound is not or has not been engaged as an advisor to or received compensation from Spotify

Dealmakers in Technology

03 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

04 SCENARIO OVERVIEW

05 EXPLOSIVE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH

06 PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS VS. TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS

07 ROOM TO INCREASE MARKET PENETRATION

08 TIMING OF PROFITABILITY

09 NEW CONTRACTS WITH LABELS WILL DRIVE GROSS MARGIN

09 STOCK MARKET INTRODUCTION & LONG TERM VALUATION

10 SPOTIFY VS. APPLE

CONTENTS

Page 3: SPOTIFY - GP Bullhound · GP Bullhound Sidecar III is an investor in Spotify. GP Bullhound is not or has not been engaged as an advisor to or received compensation from Spotify

200M PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS / $55BN VALUATIONOUR UPDATED VALUATION THESIS BY 2020

3SPOTIFY: $55 BILLION BY 2020

SPOTIFY UPDATE

» GivenSpotify’sexplosivegrowthwebelievethefirmwillbevaluedat$55bnby2020

» OurtargetstockmarketintroductionvaluationforSpotifyisover$20bn

» Spotifyistrendingtowards100mpremiumsubscribersbymid-2018–estimatespoint toward200mbytheendof2020

» Weexpectemergingmarketstodrivefuturegrowthwhichwilllikelydiluteaveragerevenueperpremiumsubscriber–wehavethereforedecreasedourARPPSestimatesby10%to$80

» AsSpotify’sambitionevolvesthecompanyisnowseekingtobecomethethirdlargestplayer intermsofadvertising–behindGoogleandFacebook–whichwilldriveadrevenuefrom non-premiumsubscribers

» Grossmarginwillsteadilyincreaseduetomorebeneficialagreementswithlabels– estimatedlevelsareconsistentwithourpreviousresearchreports

» Premiumsubscribersasapercentageoftotalsubscribersisestimatedtobe40%in2020–slightlybelowtoday’slevelof43%

» Ourvaluationreasoningandmultipleshavenotchangedsincethelastreport– subscribergrowthhashoweverbeenstrongerthanweanticipated

October 2017

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

TARGET STOCK MARKET INTRODUCTION VALUATION OVER $20BN OUR UPDATED STOCK MARKET INTRODUCTION THESIS

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4

Stock Market Introduction 2020

Implied Market Cap $23 Bn $55 Bn

Premiumsubscribers(m) 70 200

Revenueperpremiumsubscriber($/year) 87 80

Totalpremiumsubscriberrevenue($m) 6,090 16,000

Non-premiumsubscribers(m) 100 300

Revenuenon-premiumsubscriber($/year) 5 12

Adrevenues($m) 475 3,600

Adrevenue(%) 7% 18%

TOTAL REVENUES 6,565 19,600

COGSpremiumsubscriber -5,177 -12,320

COGSadrevenueus -285 -1,800

TOTAL COGS -5,462 -14,120

Gross margin 17% 28%

R&D -460 -1,176

R&D 7% 6%

SG&A -1,313 -1,764

SG&A 20% 9%

EBIT -669 2,540

EBIT% -10% 13%

AddbackD&A 66 196

D&A 1% 1%

EBITDA -603 2,736

EBITDA % -9% 14%

EV/Salesmultiple 3.5x 2.8x

EV/EBITDAmultiple n.m. 20x

EV 22,650 54,720

Netdebt -200 0

Marketcap 22,850 54,720

NOSOFD(M) 4.5 4.5

Shareprice 5,078 12,160

RETURN FROM TODAY 1.4x 3.3x

ImpliedEV/Revenue 3.5x 2.8x

ImpliedEV/Grossprofitmultiple 20.5x 10.0x

ImpliedEV/EBITmultiple n.m. 21.5x

SCENARIOOverview

Source:Annualreports,CapitalIQ,GPBullhoundanalysis Note:‘returnfromtoday’referstothereturnaninvestorreceivesifpurchasingashareinSpotifyatthepriceofthelatestsecondarydeal

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5SPOTIFY: $55 BILLION BY 2020

SpotifyannouncedinJulythatithadgrownto60millionpremiumsubscribers–effectivelyadding10millionpremiumsubscribersinlessthanfourmonths.IncomparisonittookSpotifyfivemonthstogrowfrom40millionto50millionpremiumsubscribers.Growthhasbeenexplosivetosaytheleast.Inourpreviousinvestmentreportspublishedbackin2015and2016weestimatedthatSpotifyinablueskyscenariowouldreach100mpremiumsubscribersby2020.Atthetimeoftheanalysistheseforecastswereseenasquiteaggressive,butwewholeheartedlybelievedthatitwouldbepossiblegiventherightoverallcircumstances.Spotifyhastrulythrivedsinceourlastreportanddeliveredwellaboveevenourexpectations.

WiththecurrentmarketdynamicsandgrowthratesSpotifyistrendingtowards100mpremiumsubscribersbymid-2018.ThiswouldimplySpotifyreachingourpreviousbestcasescenariomorethantwoyearsearlierthanwepreviouslyestimatedinourresearchreportpublishedinSeptember2016.Overallthereisstillsignificantgrowthpotentialgoingforwardasthereareseveralmarketswithalargeaddressableuserbasebutwithlowlevelsofpenetration,suchasThailand,JapanandIndonesia.

During 2017 streaming overtook sales for the first time as the leading driver of revenue for the US recorded music industry. In fact, streaming grew so much last year, that it now accounts for more revenue than downloads, CDs and vinyl combined in the US market.

Spotify is one of the dominant players driving this development and will have an instrumental impact on the industry going forward.

EXPLOSIVESubscriber Growth

SpotifyPremiumSubscribers ShareofGlobalMusicRevenue(%)

2010 201420132012 2015 20162011200920080%

30%

20%

10%

0

60

40

20

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6

WiththelatestavailableinformationprovidedbySpotify,thetotalnumberofpremiumsubscribersasapercentageoftotalsubscribersisroughly43%.Ouranalysisassumesthat40%ofthetotalsubscriberbasewillbepremiumsubscribersin2020.Aslightdecreaseinthisratioisexpectedasemergingmarketswilldrivesignificantgrowthgoingforwardandthusweassumemorenon-premiumsubscriberswillemerge.

Asthefirstwaveofadoptersareconvertedtopremiumsubscriberswewillstarttowitnessaslowdowningrowthunlesssubscriptionfeesaredecreased.ThishasbeenthetrendinmorematuremarketssuchasSwedenwheretheopportunityhaslargelybeenutilized.SimilarlyinothermaturemarketssuchasUS,UKandCanadagrowthwillbegintoslow.Emergingmarketswillbethekeydriverforfuturegrowthwhichinturnmeansthateventuallythe$9.99subscriptionpricewilllikelybeutilizedthereaswellrelativelysoon.SpotifyhaveintroducedfamilyplansandstudentdiscountsandifwefactorinthatemergingmarketshaveamuchloweraveragerevenueperpremiumsubscriberwebelievethatSpotifywillseeasteadydeclineinrevenueperpremiumsubscribermovingtowards2020comparedtotoday’svalue.Thisisthereasonwhywehavedecreasedourestimatedaveragerevenueperpremiumsubscriberto$80–comparedto$88in2015and$89in2016.

SeeingthatSpotify’slong-termambitionrevolvesaroundbecomingthethirdlargestplayerintermsofadvertising–behindGoogleandFacebookwhohaveanaveragerevenueperuserof$15-$20–weestimateasomewhathigherrevenuepernon-premiumsubscriberthanpreviouslyanticipated.In2015weforecastrevenuepernon-premiumsubscriberbetween$5-$10,whilstin2016weestimated$10-$14.BecauseofSpotify’srecentlycommunicatedvisionwehaveupgradedourestimatesofrevenuepernon-premiumsubscriberto$12in2020and$16asthetargetforthefirm’slongtermpotential.

In our analysis we have estimated a total subscriber base of 500m – of which 200m are premium subscribers. This would imply a quarterly growth rate of 10% until 2020 and adding an average of 11m new premium subscribers each quarter. Even though this is in line with current growth rates in terms of absolute value,

as a percentage of total subscribers this will decrease over time.

PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS VS.Total Subscribers

Subscribers PremiumSubscribers

Q1-18 Q1-19Q4-18Q3-18 Q2-19 Q3-19Q2-18Q4-17Q3-170

600

Q2-20Q1-20Q4-19 Q3-20 Q4-20

100

200

300

400

500

QuarterlyGrowth10%

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7SPOTIFY: $55 BILLION BY 2020

SpotifyhasastrongpresenceintheSwedishmarketduetoanearlymarketentry.Thereareadvantagesofbeingnumber1–itdoeshowevernotnecessarilymeanthatitisawinnertakesalltypeofgame.Withregardstotheabove-mentionedmarketswedohoweverbelievethatthereissignificantroomtoincreasepenetration.

Theremaining56marketscurrentlymakeup~25%ofthetotalsubscriberbase.Webelievethereissignificantgrowthpotentialwithinthesemarketsasmanyofthecountrieshavealargetotaladdressablemarketbutwithalowdegreeofpenetration,forexampleJapan.

IfSpotify’stotalpenetrationinJapanincreasedto35%thiswouldimply42mnewsubscribers.Webelievethattheother56marketswillmakeupover50%ofthetotalsubscriberbaseby2020.

Theanalysisabovehasnottakenintoaccountanynewmarketentry,forexamplemarketentryincountriessuch asIndia,MalaysiaandChinawouldpavethewayforstronggrowth.

Today the five largest countries in terms of subscribers – US, Brazil, UK, Mexico and Germany – make up ~75% of the total subsriber base. Penetration

within these countries range from 10% to 20%. For reference, Spotify’s penetration in the Swedish market is estimated to be over 50%. We do not however believe

this level of penetration to be realistic in other markets.

ROOM TO INCREASEMarket Penetration

Current 2020

Country Total Penetration

Premium Penetration

Total Subs (M)

Prem Subs (M) % Prem Total

PenetrationPremium

PenetrationTotal Subs

(M)Prem Subs

(M) % Prem

20% 10% 58 29 50% 35% 20% 102 58 57%

10% 5% 14 7 50% 35% 15% 48 21 43%

20% 10% 12 6 50% 35% 20% 22 12 57%

15% 5% 11 4 33% 35% 15% 27 11 43%

15% 10% 11 7 67% 40% 20% 30 15 50%

Other (#56)

33 7 21% 275 118 43%

Total 140 60 43% 500 200 40%

* All values above are based on GP Bullhound analysis

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Furthermore,customeracquisitioncostasapercentageofrevenueisestimatedtodecreaseslightly.IfthesetrendscontinueourestimatespointtowardsthatforeverydollarthatSpotifyinvestsinpremiumsubscribersthefirmgetsfivedollarsinreturn.AsSpotifygearsupforastockmarketintroductionthisbecomesoneofthemostimportantmetricsforinvestorstoanalyze.Asitwilltakesometimeforthecontractswiththedifferentlabelstomaterialize,Spotifywillmostlikelycontinuetoreportanoperatinglossintheshort-termwhichinturnmaydistractinvestorsfromthetruevaluethatisbeingcreated.

As previously mentioned, the long-term case is more about timing of profitability. Seeing that Spotify has a superior subscription model with sticky revenue streams

there is relatively clear visibility of the value that each premium subscriber and non-premium subscriber adds. As of 2017 our analysis shows that for every dollar

invested in a premium subscriber Spotify gets three dollars in return. This ratio is forecast to increase in the future as revenue per premium subscriber stabilizes,

churn decreases and gross margin steadily increases.

TIMING OFProfitability

8

* LTV: Lifetime value, SaC: Subscriber acquisition cost

LTV* SaC*

2015 201920182017 2020201620142013$0

$180

$120

$60

$30

$90

$150

5x

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9SPOTIFY: $55 BILLION BY 2020

AsSpotifycontinuestoaccumulateasignificantnumberofsubscribersitsbargainingpowerwithlabelsdramaticallyincreases.In2017alonethefirmstruckcriticaldealswithbothUniversalandSonyMusicandhavethereforesignednewdealswithallfourbiglabels.Thesedeals–alongwiththosetocome–willhelptopositivelyincreaseitsgrossmarginascostsrelatedtolabelswillsteadilydecline.CostsassociatedwithlabelsarebyfarSpotify’smostcrucialcostiteminitspathtowardsprofitability.Thegrossmarginestimatesareinlinewithourpreviouspublishedresearchreportsat28%for2020and30%inablueskyscenario.

NEW CONTRACTS WITH LABELSWill Drive Gross Margins

GiventhatthiswillmostlikelytakeplaceinthecomingmonthswedobelievetheseuservaluestobeconservativeasthelatestreleasedvalueswereaccountedforinJuly–thuspavingthewayforsubsequentstronggrowth.InourscenarioSpotifyisvaluedat3.5xrevenuewhich–whenlookingatSpotify’sclosestcomparablecompanies–canalsobeseenasquiteconservative.E.g.NetflixwhichmanyanalystsseeasSpotify’sclosestcomparableiscurrentlytradingat7.3x2017revenueand5.9x2018revenue.Giventhereasoningabovewebelievethereisroomforanincreaseinvaluationmultiplesoncethefirmispubliclytraded.

Ourpreviousbestcasevaluationsof~$50bnfromreportspublishedin2015and2016hasnowbecomeourbasecasevaluationestimatefor2020.Thedifferenceismainlyduetostrongerthanexpectedsubscribergrowth–asrevenueperpremiumsubscriber,revenuepernon-premiumsubscriberandgrossmarginarerelativelyinlinewith previousresearch.

GiventhatSpotify’sgrowthcontinuesandthatemergingmarketgrowthkeepsaveragerevenueperpremiumsubscriberrelativelyinshapeweenvisionthatSpotifyhasalongtermpotentialofbeingvaluedat$100bn.There isalongwaytogoforSpotifyandthestreamingmusicindustryingeneral.Butthemostefficientwaytogetthereisbycontinuingtocreateaproductthathundredsofmillionsofdiverseusersfallinlovewitheveryday.

Our valuation reasoning and valuation multiples have not changed since the last report published in September 2016 – subscriber growth, however, has been stronger than we anticipated. We therefore believe Spotify will be valued at over $20bn at a

stock market introduction. In this scenario we have estimated 70m premium subscribers and 100m non-premium subscribers.

STOCK MARKET INTRODUCTION OVER $22BN$55bn by 2020 & Long-term Potential of $100bn

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SPOTIFY vs. Apple

At the forefront of the music streaming revolution stand Spotify and Apple Music – the disruptor who fundamentally changed the way we consume

music and one of the world’s most recognised brands. Together these firms are fueling the development of music streaming.

10

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11SPOTIFY: $55 BILLION BY 2020

Spotify’slatestpublicfigurestouts140millionsubscribers(June2017)andover60millionpremiumsubscribers(July2017).InMay2014thefirstmajormilestonewasreachedwhenthefirmannouncedithadamassed10mpremiumsubscribers.Sincethenthetimeneededtoadd10mpremiumsubscribershasdecreasedsignificantlyfrom94monthstothreemonths.Theusergrowthhasbeenexplosivetosaytheleast.

AppleannouncedintheSeptemberthatthefirmhadsurpassed30millionpremiumsubscribers–amilestonethattookthefirmtwoyearstoreach.Forreference-ittookSpotifyjustshyof10yearstoreach30millionpremiumsubscribers.ThetwoachievementsarenotperfectlycomparableasAppleMusic’sintegrationwithAppleproductssignificantlyhelpedfuelthegrowthandthemusicstreamingindustryhadevolvedconsiderablysinceSpotify’sdebut.AppleishowevercloselymimickingthegrowthtrendofSpotify.Wedo notanticipateApplewilloutgrowSpotifyanytimesoon.

SUBSCRIBER COUNT

YearlySubscriberAdditions MonthstoAdd10MSubscribers

2010 201420132012 2015 2016201120090

100

60

40

0

40

20

20

2017*

94

125 3

*2017 GP Bullhound analysis

Spotify AppleMusic

2015 - H2 2016 - H22016 - H1 2017 - H12015 - H10

40

20

60

30m

80

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12

Apple’sservicehoweverclaimstohaveover40millionsongsinitsmusiccatalogue-ca.30%morethanSpotify.OvertheyearsAppleMusichavebeensuccessfulinreceivingexclusivityonnewlyreleasedalbums–suchasFrankOcean’sBlondeandDrake’sViews–whichinturnhashelpedpushthepremiumsubscriberbaseandincreaseretention.TogetherwiththeintegrationofiTuneslibrary,previouspurchasesandoldersongsautomaticallyappearonyourmobiledevice–whichisanawesomefeatureforlongtermiTunesusers.

AnotherplayerthatisdifficulttoexcludewhendiscussingthesheerquantityofmusicisYouTube.YouTubeis foremostavideoportalandwhilethelibraryonYouTubeismadeupofvideosithasinpracticesimultaneouslybecometheworld’smostpopularmusicstreamingservicethroughtheYouTubeMusicapplication.Theappitselfisfreeandyoucanusetheserviceforfreeinanad-supportedmode.However,YouTubealsoofferstheserviceasasubscriptionsimilartobothAppleMusicandSpotifythroughYouTubeRed.Intermsofquantitymoreisnotnecessarilybetter–butexclusivesisagamechanger.

However,withtheupdateoniOS10,AppleunveiledastreamlinedinterfacethatwasmeanttoredesignAppleMusicfromthegroundup.ThisisthesameUIthatusersinteractwithtodayandisasignificantlysmootherexperience.IntermsofaestheticsitshouldbenotedthatthereisadifferencebetweentheAppleappandtheAndroidapp.ApplehasintegratedSiriwithAppleMusicwhichfacilitatestheeaseofusebyallowinguserstocontroltheirmusicthroughvoicecommandsfromtheiriPhoneorMac.Initself,thefeatureisquiteimpressiveandwillbecomeafeatureofgrowingimportance.

Spotifyontheotherhandhasbeenleadingtheindustrythroughitsclearandsimplisticusability.Boththemobileandthedesktopversionsareeasytonavigate,accessyourmusiclibraryandbrowseplaylists.SpotifysupportsintegrationwithAmazon’sEcho-whichallowsuserstocontroltheirmusicthroughvoicecontrolfromtheirsmarthomesystem.InadditiontoAmazonEcho,SpotifyalsosupportsintegrationwithGoogleHome,Sonosandotherdevicesbothinthehomeandthecar.

Spotifyalsopossessesasignificantamountofsocialdata–inturnthisisanimportanttooltoincreaseuserexperience.ThisallowsSpotifytoanalysewhatyourfriendsandsocialacquaintancesarelisteningtoandaccuratelyrecommendnewsongsandplaylists.Thiswillbecomeacorefeatureaswemovetowardsvoicedominatedinputandoutput.

Itisdifficulttocompetewiththeredesigned,bright,aestheticinterface–thesamefeelthatmesmerizedAppleusersafterthereleaseofiOS7–ofAppleMusic.However,thesheereaseofuseandsimplicitywithSpotifyiswhatwebelievesetsthecompanyaheadintermsofUI/UX.

MUSIC LIBRARY

UI & UX

As the first major player in music streaming Spotify has amassed more than 30 million tracks on its service and contains quite a depth in the song catalogue. Even though there

historically have been some major holes in the catalogue - e.g. The Beatles and Taylor Swift - these voids were filled in 2015 and 2017. Furthermore, Spotify’s service is very agile in

bringing the latest releases and hottest live sessions to its new releases tab on Fridays which in turn is a great tool for music discovery and retaining users.

When first released in mid 2015 Apple Music’s interface was somewhat unintuitive to use. Navigating through the library, music discovery and arranging your playlist

never felt as easy as it should – especially compared to the simplicity of Spotify.

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13SPOTIFY: $55 BILLION BY 2020

ThiscanfurtherbecombinedwithcreatingamorecollaborativeandadaptedexperiencefortheuserinwhereSpotifyadaptstothemoodtheuserisinorwhattheyaredoing.ItiskeythatSpotifyfocusontheabove-mentionedareastofurtherimprovetheoveralluserexperience.

Furthermore,astheindustrymayadoptmorevoicedominatedinput/outputandanimproveduserexperiences–therewillbebothadvantagesandchallengesawaitingSpotify.OneadvantageisthatSpotifywillbeanindependentsoftwarecompanythusbeingabletoindependentlysupplyspeakermanufacturerswithsoftware.ThisisexemplifiedbytherecenteventsinwhichMicrosoftchosetoretireGrooveMusicPassandinsteadpartnerwithSpotify.Ontheotherhand,apotentialchallengewiththismoveisthatSpotify’sadvantageovercompetitorswithinUI/UXwillceasetoexistbecausethelandscapewillgetacompleteoverhaul.

AsSpotifytoourknowledgedoesnothaveanyhardwareinthepipelinetheyshouldviewApple’sHomePodasaseriousthreat.PartnershipswithHDspeakermanufacturerslikeBoseandSonosishoweveronestepthatcouldmakesenseasbrieflytoucheduponabove.Furthermore,SpotifydoesnothaveareadytousevoiceassistantlikeSiriandAlexa.Bothpointsmentionedabovecouldinturnrequiresignificantinvestmentinbothcapitalandtimetoproperlyaddressthechallengesfacedahead.

THOUGHTS ONThe Future

One of Spotify’s main issues revolves around the user experience when shifting between different environments e.g. when a user leaves their apartment and enters a taxi. This will become a challenge for the firm as partnerships increase, Spotify is used more

dynamically and there is significant development potential for multi-case usage.

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JOAKIM DAL Vice Presidentjoakim.dal@

gpbullhound.com

AUTHORS

PER ROMAN Managing Partner

per.roman@ gpbullhound.com

HAMPUS HELLERMARK Analyst

[email protected]

MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS Weactasatrustedadvisertomanyof Europe’sleadingtechnologycompaniesincompetitiveinternationalsaleandacquisitionprocesses.Thefirmhascompletedover130M&Atransactionstodatewithatotalvalueofover$3.5bn.

CAPITAL TRANSACTIONS Wehaveadvisedcompaniesandtheirownersonmorethan120capitalrelatedtransactionsincludingventurecapital,growthcapital,acquisitionfunding,secondaryblocktradesandInitialPublicOfferings.Thefirmhasraisedover$1.5bnoffinancingforEuropeantechnologycompaniestodate.

INVESTMENTS Throughourinvestmentteam,weprovideinvestorswithaccesstothemostambitiousprivately-heldtechnologyandmediacompaniesinEurope.Wecurrentlymanagethreeclosed-endfundsandourLimited Partnersincludeinstitutions,familyoffices andentrepreneurs.

EVENTS & RESEARCH OureventsandspeakingactivitiesbringtogetherthousandsofEurope’sleading digitalentrepreneursandtechnologyinvestorsthroughouttheyear.Ourthought-leadingresearchisreadbythousandsofdecision-makersgloballyandisregularlycitedin leadingnewspapersandpublications.

ABOUT USGP Bullhound

GP Bullhound is a leading technology investment and advisory firm, providing transaction advice and capital to the best entrepreneurs and founders in Europe

and beyond. Founded in 1999, the firm today has offices in London, San Francisco, Stockholm, Berlin, Manchester, Paris, Hong Kong and Madrid.

ROBERT AHLDIN Partner

robert.ahldin@ gpbullhound.com

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Vice PresidentJAVED HUQ

THE GP BULLHOUND TEAM

HUGH CAMPBELLManaging Partner

MANISH MADHVANIManaging Partner

STAFFAN INGEBORNNon-Executive Director

PER ROMANManaging Partner

SIR MARTIN SMITHChairman

SIMON NICHOLLSPartner

SVEN RAEYMAEKERSPartner

JONATHAN CANTWELLDirector

CLAUDIO ALVAREZDirector

JULIAN RIEDLBAUERPartner Partner

ANDRE SHORTELL

MARK SEBBANon-Executive Director

GRAEME BAYLEYPartner & Group CFO

ALEC DAFFERNERPartner

ROBERT AHLDINPartner

GUILLAUME BONNETONPartner

NICK HORROCKSDirector Director

PER LINDTORPALESSANDRO CASARTELLIDirector

JOHANNES ÅKERMARKVice President

FELIX BRATELLAnalyst

KYLE BOOYSENSAnalyst

ELENA BOCHAROVAAnalyst

DAVE NISHTechnology Manager

HARRI NEEDHAMGroup Finance Manager

CHRIS GRAVESDirector

OSKAR HERDLANDDirector, Equity Capital Markets

MATTEW FINEGOLDAnalyst

JOFFREY EZERZERAnalyst

PAUL GAILLARDAnalyst

OLOF RUSTNERVice President

JOY SIOUFIVice President

CARL WESSBERGDirector

SEBASTIAN MARKOWSKYDirector

ALEXIS SCORERDirector

NIKOLAS WESTPHALDirector

MAX BERNARDVice President

ALON KUPERMANPrincipal

RAVI GHEDIAVice President

JOAKIM DALInvestment Manager

PIERCE LEWIS-OAKESAnalyst

OKAN INALTAYAnalyst

ADAM PAGEAnalyst

ED PRIORAnalyst

JACOB LOVENSKIOLDAnalyst

MARVIN MAERZAssociate

SIMON MIREMADIAssociate

KARL BLOMSTERWALLAnalyst

CHRIS PARKAssociate

JAIME SENDAGORTA DIAZAssociate

HAMPUS HELLERMARKAnalyst

CHRISTOPH GRUNEWALDAnalyst

IMAN CRISBYVice President, Marketing

CARL ELFVINGAnalyst

BEN PRADESenior Advisor

CECILIA ROMANSenior Advisor

LINDA NORDMARKFinance Manager

CHRISTIAN LAGERLINGCo-Founder & Senior Advisor

ANN GREVELIUSSenior Advisor

LORD CLIVE HOLLICKSenior Advisor

15SPOTIFY: $55 BILLION BY 2020

REDA BEN LARBIAnalyst

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DISCLAIMER

No information set out or referred to in this research report shall form the basis of any contract. The issue of this research report shall not be deemed to be any form of binding offer or commitment on the part of GP Bullhound LLP. This research report is provided for use by the intended recipient for information purposes only. It is prepared on the basis that the recipients are sophisticated investors with a high degree of financial sophistication and knowledge. This research report and any of its information is not intended for use by private or retail investors in the UK or any other jurisdiction.

You, as the recipient of this research report, acknowledge and agree that no person has nor is held out as having any authority to give any statement, warranty, representation, or undertaking on behalf of GP Bullhound LLP in connection with the contents of this research report. Although the information contained in this research report has been prepared in good faith, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted by GP Bullhound LLP. In particular, but without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing, no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of any projections, targets, estimates or forecasts contained in this research report or in such other written or oral information that may be provided by GP Bullhound LLP. The information in this research report may be subject to change at any time without notice. GP Bullhound LLP is under no obligation to provide you with any such updated information. All liability is expressly excluded to the fullest extent permitted by law. Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing, no party shall have any claim for innocent or negligent misrepresentation based upon any statement in this research report or any representation made in relation thereto. Liability (if it would otherwise but for this paragraph have arisen) for death or personal injury caused by the negligence (as defined in Section 1 of the Unfair Contracts Terms Act 1977) of GP Bullhound LLP, or any of its respective affiliates, agents or employees, is not hereby excluded nor is damage caused by their fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation.

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GP Bullhound Sidecar III LP is an investor in Spotify.

For US Persons: This research report is distributed to US persons by GP Bullhound Inc. a broker-dealer registered with the SEC and a member of the FINRA. GP Bullhound Inc. is an affiliate of GP Bullhound LLP. This research report does not provide personalized advice or recommendations of any kind. All investments bear certain material risks that should be considered in consultation with an investors financial, legal and tax advisors. GP Bullhound Inc. engages in private placement and mergers and acquisitions advisory activities with clients and counterparties in the Technology and CleanTech sectors.

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OUR MISSIONTo advise the most

passionate technologyentrepreneurs

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