Species Distribution Modeling

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

# #

#

#

#

##

#

#

# ###

#

#

•Model distributions of plants & animals

•Identify centers of endemism

•Identify potential hidden areas of endemism

Focal Taxa: Species Endemic to Project Area

Taxonomic Groups

Group # of Species # of Records

Birds 80 2,182

Mammals 57 665

Amphibians 188 1,588

Plants ~405 ~4,000

Unreviewed Amphibian Localities

Plant Groups

Cyathaceae Passifloraceae Brunneliaceae Acanthaceae Onagraceae -

Fuchsia Fabaceae - Inga Campanulaceae

Ericaceae Loasaceae Marcgraviaceae Aquifoliaceae Chrysobalanaceae Anacardiaceae Malpighiaceae Mimosaceae- Mimosa

Environmental Data

Spatial Model

Range Prediction

Specialist Review

Species-Environment Relationship

Localities

Environmental DataSpecialist’s Knowledge

DEDUCTIVE

INDUCTIVE

Distribution Modeling

Inductive Modeling Details

WorldClim climate data Mean Diurnal Range Isothermality Precipitation of Wettest Month Precipitation of Driest Month Precipitation Seasonality

Digital Elevation Data Elevation, slope, exposure

MODIS Vegetation/Tree Cover Variables Averaged 2001-2003

Environmental Data

Sample MODIS Data

Inductive Modeling Details

Proven in three comparative studies

Tested in diverse conditions Does well with small samples Software publicly available

Maximum Entropy

Deductive Modeling Details

Elevational range Mountain range Estimated range of a population

Variables

Steps I

1. Select species

2. Identify sources of localities

3. Request data Peru/Bolivia: support digitization

4. Compile data

5. Remove duplicate records

6. Georeference localities

7. First cut QC Remove/correct obvious errors

Unreviewed Plant Data

Steps II

8. Second cut QC Specialists review localities

9. Run trial models Select final input variables

10.Third cut QC Remove/correct outliers in environmental

space

11.Run final models12.Remove overpredicted area

Versicolored Barbet, Eubucco versicolor

Steps II

Second cut QC Specialists review localities

Run trial models Select final input variables

Third cut QC Remove/correct outliers in environmental

space Run final models Remove overpredicted area

Daphne's Oldfield Mouse, Thomasomys daphne

0 100 20050Kilometers

Predicted present

Occurrence locality

Range map

Incan Shrew Opossum, Lestoros inca

0 100 20050Kilometers

Predicted present

Occurrence locality

Range map

Photo by B. Patterson

Hooded Mountain-Toucan, Andigena cucullata

Predicted present

Occurrence locality

Range map

0 50 10025Kilometers

Golden-collared Tanager, Iridosornis jelskii

Predicted present

Occurrence locality

Range map

0 100 20050Kilometers

Selva Cacique, Cacicus koepckeae

Predicted present

Occurrence locality

Range map

0 150 30075Kilometers

Centers of Endemism - Birds

0 250 500125Kilometers

Species Richness

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 26

Mammals

0 250 500125Kilometers

Species Richness

2 - 4

5 - 8

9 - 12

13 - 16

Amphibians

0 250 500125Kilometers

Species Richness

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 23

Next Step: Aggregate Data to ID Endemism Centers

Control for range size Control for collecting bias

Source: Nelson et al. 1990

Then … Predict Hidden Areas of Endemism

Modeling Endemism centers Independent environmental data layers

June workshop to define methods

CollaboratorsModelersPilar HernandezHeidi Quintana Aldo SotoCarolina Tovar

Data ReviewersCésar Aguilar Jesús CórdovaIrma FrankeSebastian HerzogDaniel LaneJohn O’NeillVictor PachecoLily RodríguezThómas Valqui+ many plant

systematists

Data ManagersLily PaniaguaMartin TimanáCarlos Zambrana

Sources of Locality Information

United States National Museum of Natural History

Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos

University of California, Berkeley, Museum of Vertebrate Zoology

University of Kansas, Museum of Natural History

University of Michigan, Museum of Zoology

University of New Mexico, Museum of Southwestern Biology

University of San Simon, Cochabamba, Bolivia

Yale Peabody Museum

The Academy of Natural Sciences American Natural History MuseumArmoniaBritish MuseumCarnegie Museum of Natural HistoryCentro de Datos para la

Conservación - PerúColección Boliviana de FaunaCopenhagan UniversityDelaware Museum of Natural HistoryField Museum of Natural HistoryFundacion Amigos de la NaturalezaLouisiana State University, Museum

of Natural ScienceNoel Kempff Mercado Natural History

Museum

Natural History Museums

Plus 5 scientists

Sources of Locality InformationHerbarium. Naturhistorisches Museum Wien. ViennaHerbarium. Pomona CollegeHerbarium. Royal Botanic Gardens, KewHerbarium. University of MichiganHerbarium. Uppsala UniversityHerbarium. Academy of Natural Sciences.Herbarium. Albrecht-von-Haller-Institut für PflanzenwissenschaftenHerbarium. California Academy of Sciences. San Francisco, California.Herbarium. Heidelberger Institut für PflanzenwissenschaftenHerbarium. Institut für Systematische Botanik. Universität ZürichHerbarium. Marie Selby Botanical GardensHerbarium. Missoouri Botanical GardenHerbarium. National Museum in PragueHerbarium. Natural History Museum of Los Angeles CountyHerbarium. Rancho Santa Ana Botanic GardenHerbarium. Royal Botanic Garden. EdinburghHerbarium. Swedish Museum of Natural HistoryHerbarium. The Natural History MuseumHerbarium. United States National ArboretumHerbarium. University of California. Los AngelesHerbarium. University of CopenhagenHerbarium. University of Texas at AustinHerbarium. V. L. Komarov Botanical InstituteHerbier National de Paris.Nationaal Herbarium NederlandUnited States National HerbariumUniversity Herbarium. University of California. BerkeleyUniversity of Aarhus Herbarium JutlandicumWilliam and Lynda Steere Herbarium. New York Botanical Garden

Albion R. Hodgdon Herbarium. University of New HampshireBailey Hortorium Herbarium, Cornell UniversityBotanical Museum. Lund, SwedenBotanischer Garten und Botanisches Museum Berlin-Dahlem.Conservatoire et Jardin botaniques de la Ville de GenèveDaubeny Herbarium. University of OxfordDudley Herbarium. California Academy of SciencesField Museum of Natural HistoryFielding-Druce Herbarium. University of OxfordHarvard University HerbariaHerbario Amazonense. Univ. Nacional de la Amazónia PerúanaHerbario del Oriente Boliviano. Mus. Historia Natural Noel Kempff MercadoHerbario Nacional ColombianoHerbario Nacional de BoliviaHerbario Nacional del EcuadorHerbario Nacional Forestal Martín Cárdenas. CochabambaHerbario Nacional. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoHerbario Selva Central. Oxapampa, Perú.Herbario Vargas. Universidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del CuscoHerbario. Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. LimaHerbario. Fundación Miguel Lillo. Tucuman, Argentina.Herbario. Instituto de Botánica Darwinion. Buenos Aires, Argentina.Herbario. Instituto de Botánica del Nordeste. Corrientes, Argentina.Herbario. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Buenos AiresHerbario. Proyecto BOLFOR. Santa Cruz, BoliviaHerbario. Real Jardín Botánico. Madrid, Spain.Herbario. Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina. LimaHerbario. Universidad Nacional de CajamarcaHerbario. Universidad Nacional de CórdobaHerbário. Universidade de São PauloHerbarium of the University of ArizonaHerbarium Senckenbergianum FrankfurtHerbarium Truxillense. Universidad Nacional de La Libertad-Trujillo

Herbaria