SPC Discussion Items

• Watch Probabilities Experiment• Enhanced Thunder Experiment• Status report by counties• Graphical Day 4-8 Convective Outlook• Graphical Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Low (10%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Low (0%)

Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (90%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Low (20%)

HailProbability of 10 or more severe hail events Mod (50%)Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Low (10%)

Probability of Type and Intensity of Weather within a Watch

SPC General thunder Forecast 1300UTC 18 May – 1200Z 19

May

Enhanced General Thunder1300UTC 18 May – 0000Z 19 May

Enhanced General Thunder0000UTC 19 May – 1200Z 19 May

WOUS20 KWNS 080736 WWASPC SPC WW-A 080740 MNZ000-SDZ000-WIZ000-LSZ000-080840- STATUS REPORT ON WW 407 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40ENE BKX TO 30 NE AXN TO 10 NNW ELO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1138ISSUED AT 0709 UTC. ..JPR..06/08/04 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...ABR... && SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

---MORE TEXT---

Status report by counties

---PREVIOUS TEXT---&& SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

MNC001-009-017-023-025-031-035-059-065-067-075-085-093-095-097-115-129-137-141-145-171-080840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BENTON CARLTONCHIPPEWA CHISAGO COOKCROW WING ISANTI KANABECKANDIYOHI LAKE MCLEODMEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISONPINE RENVILLE ST. LOUISSHERBURNE STEARNS WRIGHT$$

---NEXT STATE---

---PREVIOUS TEXT---&&

STATUS REPORT ON WS 407 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

MNC001-009-017-023-025-031-035-059-065-067-075-085-093-095-097-115-129-137-141-145-171-080840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BENTON CARLTONCHIPPEWA CHISAGO COOKCROW WING ISANTI KANABECKANDIYOHI LAKE MCLEODMEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISONPINE RENVILLE ST. LOUISSHERBURNE STEARNS WRIGHT$$

---NEXT STATE---

Requested Enhancement – Indicate Watch Type

Extended Convective Outlooks – Days 4 through 8&

Extended Fire Weather Outlooks – Days 3 through 8

Please send any additional thoughts to:joseph.schaefer@noaa.gov