Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Second Edition, Revised and Expanded

H. Lee Willis ABB Inc.

Raleigh, North Carolina

M A R C E L

11 T-> u . ^ NEW YORK • BASEL MARCEL DEKKER, INC. 1 N t w

Contents

Series Introducüon Preface

1 Spatial Electric Load Forecasting

1.1 Spatial Load Forecasting 1.2 T&DPlanning 1.3 Requirements for a T&D Load Forecast 1.4 Summary

References

2 Consumer Demand for Power and Reliability

2.1 The Two Qs: Quality and Quantity of Power 2.2 Electric Consumer Demand for Quantity of Power 2.3 Eiectric Consumer Demand for Quality of Power 2.4 Two-Q Analysis: Quantity and Quality versus Cost 2.5 Conclusion and Summary

References

xii Contents

3 Coincidence and Load Behavior 73

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Peak Load, Diversity, and Load Curve Behavior 11 3.3 Measunng and Modeling Load Curves 3.4 Summary 85

References 94 94

95 1 Load Curve and End-Use Modeling

4.1 End-Use Analysis of Electric Load 4.2 The Basic "Curve Adder" End-Use Model , tl 4.3 Advanced End-Use Models I 0 2

4.4 Application of End-Use Models 1 0 9

45 SenSs1"1'16111^ *""'* LOad C™ M°del S 126

Weather and Electric Load 5.1 Introduction 129 5.2 Weather and Its Measurement I 2 9

5.3 Weather's Variation with Time and Place lll 5.4 Weather and Its Impact on Electric Demand \ll

References J 4 7 165

6.2 Extreme Weather 1 6 7

6.3 Standardized Weather "Design Criteria" ! f

6.8 Summary and Guidelines *-™lt*>. 197 References 2 0 °

202

Contents xiti

7 Spatial Load Growth Behavior 203

7.1 Introduction 203 7.2 Spatial Distribution of Electric Load 204 7.3 Small Area Load Growth Behavior 211 7.4 Summary 228

References 229

8 Spatial Forecast Accuracy and Error Measures 231

8.1 Introduction 231 8.2 Spatial Error: Mistakes in Location 232 8.3 Spatial Frequency Perspective on Error Impact 245 8.4 Conclusions and Guidelines 257

References 259

9 Trending Methods 261

9.1 Introduction 261 9.2 Trending Using Polynomial Curve Fit 262 9.3 Improvements to Regression-Based Curve Fitting Methods 273 9.4 Other Trending Methods 293 9.5 Summary 300

References 301

10 Simulation Method: Basic Concepts 303

10.1 Introduction 303 10.2 Simulation of Electric Load Growth 304 10.3 Land-Use Growth: Cause and Effect 314 10.4 Quantitative Models of Land-Use Interaction 321 10.5 Summary of Key Concept 324

References 324

11 A Detailed Look at the Simulation Method 325

11.1 Introduction 325

xiv Contents

11.2 Springfield 11.3 TheForecast 6

11.4 Critique and Commentary on Manual Simulation « o References J o y

372

12 Basics of Computerized Simulation

13 Analytical Building Blocks for Spatial Simulation

14 Advanced Elements of Computerized Simulation

15 Hybrid Trending-Simulation Methods

15.1 Introduction 15.2 Using Information in a Spatial Forecast 15.3 Land-Use Classified Multivariate Trending (LCMT) 15.4 Extended Template Matching (ETM)

373

373 374

12.1 Introduction 12.2 Overall Structure and Common Features 12.3 Small Area Spatial Module 12.4 Top-Down Structure *Z

12.5 Summary and Conclusion References and Bibliography 393

394

397

13.1 Introduction 13.2 Land-Use Input-Output Matrix Model 13.3 Activity Center Gravity Models 13.4 Consumer-Class Spatial Allocation Using Preference Matching 7\l

References and Bibliography

397 397 405

421

14.1 Introduction 14.2 Simulation Program Structure and Function 14.3 Fast Methods for Spatial Simulation 14.4 Growth Viewed as a Frequency Domain Process 14.5 Summary

References 445

421 421 436 441

447

447 448 451 455

Contents xv

15.5 SUSAN - A Simulation-Driven Trending Method 462 15.6 Summary and Guidelines 474

References 475

16 Advanced Demand Methods: Multi-Fuel and Reliability Models 477

16.1 Introduction 477 16.2 Simultaneous Modeling of Multiple Energy Types 478 16.3 Spatial Value-Based Analysis 494 16.4 Conclusion 504

References 505

17 Comparison and Selection of Spatial Forecast Methods 507

17.1 Introduction 507 17.2 Classification of Spatial Forecast Methods 508 17.3 Comparison Test ofNineteen Spatial Forecast Methods 513 17.4 Data and Data Sources 533 17.5 Selecting a Forecast Method 540 17.6 Example Selection of a Spatial Forecast Method by a Utility 548

References 565

18 Development Dimensionality: Urban, Rural and Agrarian Areas 569

18.1 Introduction 569 18.2 Regional Types and Development Dimension 571 18.3 Forecasting Load Growth in Rural Regions 577 18.4 Forecasting Load Growth in Agrarian Regions 586 18.5 Summary and Guidelines 590

Reference 590

19 Metropolitan Growth and Urban Redevelopment 591

19.1 Introduction 591 19.2 Redevelopment Is the Process of Urban Growth 592 19.3 Representing Redevelopment in Spatial Forecasts 603 19.4 Eight Simulation Approaches to Redevelopment Forecasting 606

xvi Contents

IM SR Z ^ n d a , / M S f O ^ M < , d e l Ü , 8 R e d e V e , « " " " » « ' ' - 626

References 629

21

630

631 20 Spatia. Load Forecasting in Deveioping Economies

20.1 Introduction

20.2 Modeiing Load Growth Due to Latent Demand 5?! 20.3 Example Latent Demand Forecast 6 3 4

20.4 New-City Load Growth 643 20.5 Summary and Guidelines 6 6 0

673 Using Spatial Forecasting Methods Well

21.1 Introduction 21.2 Forecast Application 673 21.3 Calibration of a Spatial Forecast Model 6 7 4

2 5 J a r r t ^ ^ T ** U s i " 8 S i m u l a t i ° " P^grams Well 2 21.5 Partial-Region Forecast Situations 6 9 5

22 Recommendations and Guidelines

22.1 Introduction 22.2 Spatial Forecasting Priorities 7 ! 7

22 4 ^ ° , r e , : d a t i 0 n S f ° r S u c c e s s f i " Forecasting 111 22.4 Pitfalls to Avoid s 720 22.5 How Good Is Good Spatial Forecasting? 7 3 °

Index

716

717

739