Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Spain Outlook 1Q18
Spain Economic Outlook
1Q18January 2018
Spain Outlook 1Q18
Key messages
The stronger global growth consolidates. Widespread
upward revision in 2018 across areas, but trending
towards stabilization in 2019
In Spain, activity and employment continue to grow,
despite economic policy uncertainty. However, a slowdown
is expected in 1Q18
GDP growth forecasts for Spain in 2017 and 2018 are
maintained at 3.1% and 2.5% respectively. In addition, the
recovery is expected to continue in 2019 (2.3%) and the
improvement in the economy to begin to translate into
wage growth
Among domestic risks, the political environment, fiscal
adjustment, structural unemployment and the slowdown of
reforms remain put
Spain Outlook 1Q18
GLOBAL ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
1Q18
Spain Outlook 1Q18
31
Global growth is strengthened
4
01 Better forecasts for the US,
China and the Eurozone
There is less uncertainty in the
short term
02 More positive perspectives for
emerging countries
Increased global demand and
higher price of raw materials
03 More caution in financial
markets
Expectations of less liquidity can
reduce flows to emerging markets
04 Core inflation contained
Although the factors of downward
pressure are disappearing
05 Central banks continue to make
progress towards normalization
The reasons for withdrawing stimuli
materialize
06 Global risks
Lower in the short term; no changes
in the medium and long term
Spain Outlook 1Q18
Upward revision of growth
Improvement in the labor market
Approval of the tax reform
Continuous changes in the Fed
Moderate deceleration
Some reforms already underway
Positive conclusions at the XIX Congress
of the CPC
Higher potential growth
Stronger growth than expected
More robust domestic demand
Less political uncertainty
Plans of greater integration
Reasons for optimism in large areas, although with caution
USA CHINA EUROZONE
5
Spain Outlook 1Q18
Robust and sustained global growth
6
World GDP growth(Forecasts based on BBVA-GAIN, % QoQ)
Global growth, bolstered by the recovery of
the industrial sector, remains stable
Confidence indicators continue to improve,
and anticipate that the positive outlook will
continue
Private consumption continues to sustain
growth in advanced economies and gains
momentum in emerging economies
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
De
c-1
2
Jun-1
3
De
c-1
3
Jun-1
4
De
c-1
4
Jun-1
5
De
c-1
5
Jun-1
6
De
c-1
6
Jun-1
7
De
c-1
7
CI 20% CI 40% CI 60% Point Estimates Period average
Spain Outlook 1Q18
The outlook for emerging economies improves
7
Higher oil prices reflect greater global
demand, which would account for 60% of
the increase
However, it is also due to supply factors,
linked to geopolitical risks and the
correction of inventories
Positive and significant impact on
commodity producing emerging economies
However, we still expect prices to converge
to $60 per barrel in the medium term, due
to increased competition and structural
changes in the energy sector
Price of oil(Dollars per barrel, %)
Source: BBVA Research
4Q17 2018 2019
18%
21.8%
-2.8%
61.5
65.9
64.1
Change relative to previous period Dollars per barrel
Spain Outlook 1Q18
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
De
c-1
3
Ju
n-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ju
n-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ju
n-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ju
n-1
7
De
c-1
7
88
Caution in financial markets, with moderation of flows to emerging markets
Source: BBVA Research, EPFR
Risk appetite indicator(Factor 1 (global), EPFR flow analysis )
Investor appetite for emerging (EM) vs developed (DM)(Inflows in EM vs. DM in % of assets under management)
Greater appetite for risk
Less appetite bfor risk
-1.3
-1.0
-0.8
-0.5
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.3
ma
r.-1
3
sep.-
13
ma
r.-1
4
sep.-
14
ma
r.-1
5
sep.-
15
ma
r.-1
6
sep.-
16
ma
r.-1
7
sep.-
17
China
Trump
Taper tamtrun
Brexit
Preference
for EM
Preference
for DM
Spain Outlook 1Q18
Core inflation contained
9Source: BBVA Research and OECD
Reduction in the economies’ output gap, but
with room to grow without strong
inflationary pressures
Less price reaction to the increase in
activity, for several reasons:
Globalisation
Increased flexibility in the labour market:
Low inflationary expectations
Reduced productivity growth
The increase in the price of oil will push up
inflation in the short term, facilitating central
bank moves towards normalisation in
developed economies
OECD: Production gap and inflation (% of potential GDP, % YoY)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Output gap Inflation
Spain Outlook 1Q18
Fed
ECBBoJ
Withdrawal of non-conventional monetary policy measuresH
ard
en
ing
Re
laxa
tio
n
Pre-crisis Crisis Normalisation
Interest rate increase
Maturing bond
proceeds reinvested
Interest rate
increase
Partial reinvestment
Reduction
of bond
purchases
10
Spain Outlook 1Q18
FED ECB
Hawkish rate cycle and balance
sheet reduction under way
Estimated rise of 0.75% in 2018 to
2.25% and reduction of the balance
sheet by US$420 billion
QE reduction, but extended to
September 2018
No interest rate increases before
2019
• Macro: possible surprises in
inflation and in economies’ reaction
to higher interest rates
Elements of uncertainty:
• Politics: changes in governing
councils (Fed, ECB)
• Markets: long-term rates and
steepness of the curve
The Fed accelerates normalisation while the ECB keeps it gradual
Focus: avoid sudden jump
in long-term rates Focus: gain room for manoeuvre
11
Spain Outlook 1Q18
USA
2018
2.62019
2.5
SOUTH AMERICA
2019
2.6
EUROZONE
CHINA2018
2.2
2019
6
WORLD
2019
3.82018
3.8
Down
Up
Unchanged
2019
1.8
2018
1.6
2018
6.3
TURKEY
MEXICO 2018
4.52019
4.32019
2.22018
2
Widespread upward GDP growth forecasts (2018-19)
Source: BBVA Research 12
Spain Outlook 1Q18
2.9
1.5
2.2
2.6
2.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Current Previous
Positive impact of the oil price increase,
global demand and the weakness of the
dollar on investment and exports
Positive but limited effect of the tax reform
(around 0.2% in 2018), mainly due to
changes in corporate taxation. Doubts
about the long-term effect
Monetary policy will remain
accommodative, despite normalisation
13Source: BBVA Research based on BEA (Bureau of Economic
Analysis) figures
USA: GDP growth (YoY, %)
USA: Stronger economic growth in the short term
Spain Outlook 1Q18
6.9 6.7 6.76.3
6.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Current Previous
14Source: BBVA Research based on CEIC data
China: GDP growth (YoY, %)
China: More moderate slowdown in growth
Due to ongoing structural reforms and less
support from economic policy
Nevertheless, the good economic
performance reduces the risk of a sudden
adjustment in the short term
Eliminating the growth objective limits
imbalances
The measures aimed at opening up the
economy, together with more qualitative
objectives, will drive structural reforms and
potential GDP
Spain Outlook 1Q18
2.01.8
2.4
2.2
1.8
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Current Previous
15Source: BBVA Research based on Eurostat figures
Eurozone: GDP growth (YoY, %)
Eurozone: Stronger and more balanced growth
The increase in disposable income
continues to support solid private
consumption
Greater support from global demand,with
limited impact from the euro’s appreciation
Easing uncertainty and increased earnings
will underpin the recovery in investment
Monetary policy will contribute to
favourable financial conditions and a
relatively stable euro
The cyclical improvement will allow the
deficit to be reduced by means of a
somewhat expansive fiscal policy
Spain Outlook 1Q18
Global risks: Fewer in the short term
16
-P
rob
ab
ilit
y i
n t
he
sh
ort
te
rm+
- Severity +
USA
EUROZ
ONE
• Containment of risks associated with high leverage in the short term
• Potential negative effect of increased protectionism
• Political tensions still high, but more contained
• Negotiation of trading relations (NAFTA)
• Signs of over-valuation of certain assets
• Reduced risk of rapid normalisation by the Fed, but uncertainty
persists
• Reduced political uncertainty, but significant question marks remain
in several countries:
• Brexit: fewer doubts about future trading relations
• Germany: functioning of the “grand coalition”
• Italy (elections in March 2018): risk of a government opposed to
the European project
• Management of the normalisation of monetary policy
CHINA
Source: BBVA Research
Spain Outlook 1Q18
Spain Economic
Outlook 1Q18
January 2018
Spain Outlook 1Q18
2017
2018
2019
3.1%
2.5%
2.3%
18
Growth will moderate in 2018 and in 2019
Source: BBVA Research
Spain Outlook 1Q18
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17 (
e)
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17 (
e)
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17 (
e)
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17 (
e)
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17 (
e)
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17 (
e)
PrivateConsumption
PublicConsumption
Investment inM&E
ResidentialInvestment
Exports ofgoods
Exports ofservices
19
Spain 4Q17 forecasts(% QoQ)
Consumption (both private and public)
increased at a sustained pace, while other
aggregates recovered
After a disappointing 2Q, investment in
machinery rebounded strongly
Residential investment gained traction at
the end of the year
Exports of goods recover, but those of
services remain weak, due to both
structural factors and those related to the
political environment in Catalonia
(e): estimate
Source: BBVA Research based on INE
The closing of 2017 was positive
+0.6% +0.6%+1.4%
+1.4% +1.5%
+0.3%
Spain Outlook 1Q18
20
Spain: observed growth in GDP and MICA-BBVA model forecasts(%, QoQ)
Despite the economic policy uncertainty,
the Spanish economy could have grown
0.8% QoQ in 4Q17
However, BBVA Research estimates
indicate that GDP growth could moderate
in 1Q18 (0.6% - 0.7% QoQ)
(e): estimate
Source: BBVA Research based on INE
The activity could lose momentum in 1Q18
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Sep
-13
Dec-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Jun-1
4
Sep
-14
Dec-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Jun-1
5
Sep
-15
Dec-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Jun-1
6
Sep
-16
Dec-1
6
Ma
r-1
7
Jun-1
7
Sep
-17
Dic
-17
(e)
Ma
r-1
8 (
e)
CI 60% CI 40% CI 20% GDP (% QoQ)
Spain Outlook 1Q18
The economic policy uncertainty remains
high, after reaching historical records in
October
The impact on the real economy could be
noticed in the coming months
If it does not dissipate, or even worse, if it
increases again, it could have additional
effects on expenditure decisions of
households and companies
Economic policy uncertainty (EPU)(Standard deviations, monthly average)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Dec-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Apr-
16
May-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Ju
l-16
Aug
-16
Sep
-16
Oct-
16
Nov-1
6
Dec-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Feb
-17
Mar-
17
Apr-
17
May-1
7
Ju
n-1
7
Ju
l-17
Aug
-17
Sep
-17
Oct-
17
Nov-1
7
Dec-1
7Spain Catalonia
General
elections
General
elections
and brexit
Catalan
elections
1-O
Activity loses momentum in 1Q18
Source: BBVA Research based on GDELT 21
Spain Outlook 1Q18
Financial data
The impact on aggregate
growth of the real
economy could be noticed
from 1S18
Activity in Catalonia
There is an impact
observed in expenditure
indicators and tourism
Activity in Spain
Indicators of
employment, production
and confidence have
maintained a relatively
positive stance
Summary
The aggregate impact
may be limited in the short
term, but at a higher pace
in Catalonia
22
Uncertainty has had a negative impact, although limited
Spain Outlook 1Q18
23Source: BBVA Research based on Bloomberg
Financial indicators (índex Sep-17=100, monthly averages)
Uncertainty has had a negative impact, although limited: Financial
variables
80
84
88
92
96
100
104
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-17(1 to 15)
Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Sep-17 Jan-17(1 to 15)
Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-00 Jan-00 Jan-17(1 to 15)
Stock Prices Banks Risk Premiums
Eurostoxx50 (LHS) Ibex35 (LHS) European Banks (LHS) Spanish Banks (LHS) Italy (RHS) Spain (RHS)
Spain Outlook 1Q18
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Social SecurityAffiliation
RegisteredUnemployment
Passenger carregistrations
Retail trade index Total tourists Non residenttourists
Total overnightstays
Non resident totalovernight stays
Labor Market Private consumption Tourism
Forecast with data up to September Observed
Catalonia: Observed data and forecasts in a scenario in the absence of economic policy uncertainty (% QoQ SWDA)
Source: BBVA Research based on MEySS, INE & ANFAC
Economic policy uncertainty remains high, and has affected some
variables: Activity in Catalonia
24
Spain Outlook 1Q18
25
(*) Expenditure in BBVA points of sale (POS) plus expenditure in POS made by BBVA clients
Source: BBVA Research y BBVA Data & Analytics
Perspectives on the evolution of activity in the current quarter(Net balance of answers, preliminary data)
Uncertainty has had a negative impact, although limited:
BBVA DATA
Expenditure in BBVA POS*(Average weekly percentage difference with respect to 2015)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17
Catalonia Spain
Worse than expected
Better than expected
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Jun-1
0
Nov-1
0
Apr-
11
Sep
-11
Feb
-12
Jul-12
Dec-1
2
May-
13
Oct
-13
Mar-
14
Aug
-14
Jan-1
5
Jun-1
5
Nov-1
5
Apr-
16
Sep
-16
Feb
-17
Jul-17
Dec-1
7
Catalonia Rest of Spain
Spain Outlook 1Q18
2018-2019: The external environment will support growth
Source: BBVA Research 26
Oil prices
• Still low (compared to 2014),
despite the upward revision
Exchange rate
• The recent appreciation will have
a limited impact for Spain
Global growth
• Upward revision in Europe
• A more synchronized global recovery is positive
for Spain given the diversification of exports
Monetary policy support
• Gradual withdrawing from the ECB
• Low long-term interest
Relatively low risk premium
• In addition, the structural model
suggests that there is scope for a
downward revision (positive for growth)
Spain Outlook 1Q18
Spain: Change in ciclically adjusted primary balance* (pp of GDP)
The cyclical recovery will help reduce the deficit, although a small deviation from the
objective is possible
2018-2019: The fiscal policy will be practically neutral
(*) Excluding aid from the financial sector Source: BBVA Research from MINHAP. (e): estimate (f): forecast
27
5,3
1,9
0,2
-1,2-0,7
-0,2
0,1 0,1
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17 (
e)
20
18 (
f)
20
19 (
f)
Spain Outlook 1Q18
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
Spain Catalonia Spain Catalonia
2018 2019Impact
Economic policy uncertainty in Catalonia
reached an all-time high in October, in excess
of the levels seen in January and June of 2016
GDP response to economic policy uncertainty shocks(% YoY, deviation from the base scenario)
The increase in uncertainty and the deterioration observed in external perception (tourism, financial
variables) will affect the expenditure of households and companies, limiting growth over the next two years
2018-2019: Economic policy uncertainty will have an impact on
activity
Source: BBVA Research
28
Spain Outlook 1Q18
2017 2018
INFLATION
1.6%1.7%
GROWTH IN
EMPLOYMENT (LFS)
2.5%2.0%
UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE
15.3%14.0%
2018
2019
29Annual averages
Source: BBVA Research
2018-2019: Inflation and labor market forecasts
Spain Outlook 1Q18
To the extent that the rest of the distribution
of wages is not affected by the increase in
the minimum wage, its increase should not
significantly affect the creation of
employment
However, there are certain groups for which
the increase in the cost of hiring could
reduce its probability of finding a job
Source: BBVA Research based on INE
See: Archondo I. , J. R. García y C. Ulloa (2017): “Repercusiones del aumento del salario mínimo en España”
Available at: https://www.bbvaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Observatorio_SMI_feb17.pdf
Features receptors
(minimum wage)
Women
Temporary
contract
Patial time
Primary
education
In the service
sector
Not covered by any
collective bargaining
agreement
Foreign
Young
Working in
small
companies
Internal risks: Increase of the minimum wage
30
Spain Outlook 1Q18
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2014-2016 average 2018 (f) 2019 (f)
Structural Cyclical Total (cyclical + structural)
It is possible that the continuation of the recovery will begin to have a greater impact on the formation of wages. This
growth is welcome if it is a consequence of productivity improvements
Source: BBVA Research
Internal risks: High structural unemployment
Spain: Decomposition of nominal compensation per employee(%, YoY)
31
(f): forecast
Spain Outlook 1Q18
(e): estimate (f): forecast
Source: BBVA Research based on INE
If a significant part of the unemployment rate reflects capacity constraints, the recovery could lead to a further
increase in inequality between those who have a job and those who do not.
Spain: Unemployment rate(%)
32
Internal riks: Structural unemployment rate remains high
19.6
17.1
15.3
14
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2016 2017(e) 2018(f) 2019 (f)
Structural (CI 20%) Structural (CI 40%) Structural (CI 60%) Total (Observed data and BBVA Research forecasts)
Spain Outlook 1Q18
Source: BBVA Research based on INE
The autonomous elections of 2019 and the possible relaxation of the spending rule increase the uncertainty
Doubts persist about the approval or extension of the General State Budgets (PGE)
Recent developments also introduce uncertainty about the tax revenues projected by the Government
Local risks: Fiscal deficit
Public administration.: fulfillment of the LEP spending rule
G.G. A.C. L.C.
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017*
(*) In 2017, according to the budget excecution for the general government and the autonomous communities up to october and up to 3Q17 for local corporations
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Greater degree of Non-compliance
Accomplished
33
0 7 14 5 9
Number of Autonomous Communities
that did not complyLower degree of Non-compliance
Spain Outlook 1Q18
ESPAÑA
Characteristics of workers in occupations with increased risk of automation *
Low educational level
Women
In the sector:
• Primary
• Manufacturer
• Commerce
• Hostelry
• Finance
• Real Estate
Young
Do not perform a non-
regulated education
In small companies
Do not telework
comming from
unemployment
Looking for a new job
No liability positions
Private sector
With temporary contract
Challenges: Taking advantage of the opportunities of the 4th Industrial
RevolutionThe technological transformation is an
opportunity and also a challenge
The aggregate impact is positive, but
36% of employment in Spain faces the
risk of automation
It is crucial to lead the change, with
policies that soften the transition, cushion
costs and enhance benefits
Source: BBVA Research based on Frey, Osborne (2017) & INE
(*) An analysis on the individuals affected by the digital revolution will be approached in an Outlook available shortly34
Spain Outlook 1Q18
Spain Economic
Outlook 1Q18
January 2018
Spain Outlook 1Q18
Key messages
The stronger global growth consolidates. Widespread
upward revision in 2018 across areas, but trending
towards stabilization in 2019
In Spain, activity and employment continue to grow,
despite economic policy uncertainty. However, a slowdown
is expected in 1Q18
GDP growth forecasts for Spain in 2017 and 2018 are
maintained at 3.1% and 2.5% respectively. In addition, the
recovery is expected to continue in 2019 (2.3%) and the
improvement in the economy to begin to translate into
wage growth
Among domestic risks, the political environment, fiscal
adjustment, structural unemployment and the slowdown of
reforms remain put
Spain Outlook 1Q18
APPENDICES
Spain Outlook 1Q18
Brent forecast(Dollars per barrel)
Spain: Impact of oil price on GDP according to type of shock(pp YoY)
External fundamentals: higher oil price
Source: BBVA Research 38
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Dec-1
0
Ju
n-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ju
n-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ju
n-1
3
Dec-1
3
Ju
n-1
4
Dec-1
4
Ju
n-1
5
Dec-1
5
Ju
n-1
6
Dec-1
6
Ju
n-1
7
Dec-1
7
Ju
n-1
8
Dec-1
8
Ju
n-1
9
Dec-1
9
Ju
n-2
0
Dec-2
0
Jan-18 Sep-17
-0,6
-0,5
-0,4
-0,3
-0,2
-0,1
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
2018 2019
Global demand Oil supply Total
Spain Outlook 1Q18
Spain: Effect on GDP of the EMU demand shock(pp YoY)
External fundamentals: stronger growth in the EMU
Source: BBVA Research 39
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
2018
Exports Domestic demand GDP
Spain Outlook 1Q18
The trade channel is the most relevant to
determine the impact in other regions of
Spain
It is expected that the other channels
(home acquisition, tourism ...) have a
secondary role
40
-0,7-0,4 a -0,6-0,2 a -0,4<0,2
GDP response to the current increase in economic policy uncertainty(% YoY, deviation from the baseline scenario)
Source: BBVA Research
2018-2019: Economic policy uncertainty will have a real cost
Spain Outlook 1Q18
4.3
1.4
0.2
3.1
0.80.0
2.3
0.6 0.0
1.7
Deficit 2016 Cyclicalvariation
Cyclicallyadjusted
Deficit 2017 Cyclicalvariation
Cyclicallyadjusted
Deficit 2018 Cyclicalvariation
Cyclicallyadjusted
Deficit 2019
2017 (e ) 2018 (f) 2019 (f)
41Source: BBVA Research based on MINHAP. (e): estimate (f): forecast
2018-2019: Fiscal policy will be practically neutral
Spain: Fiscal adjustment(% of GDP)
Spain Outlook 1Q18
Changes in our forecasts
The fundamentals continue to support a relatively strong recovery
42
(*) Contribution to GDP growth
Source: BBVA Research based on INE & BdE
% YoY 2016 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f)
Final consumpion expenditure 2,5 2,2 2,1 1,9
F.C.E. Households 2,9 2,5 2,2 1,9
General government 0,8 1,2 1,8 1,9
Gross fixed capital formation 3,3 5,0 3,7 4,3
Equipment and machinery 5,0 6,2 3,5 4,3
Construction 2,4 4,3 3,4 4,1
Housing 4,4 7,6 5,3 5,7
Other constructions 0,9 1,5 1,6 2,7
Domestic demand (*) 2,5 2,6 2,4 2,3
Exports 4,8 5,1 4,4 5,2
Exports of gooods 3,1 5,0 5,0 5,4
Exports of services 8,8 5,3 3,3 4,7
Non-turistic services 8,2 3,0 3,7 6,1
Final consumption of non-residents in the economic territory 9,7 8,7 2,8 2,9
Imports 2,7 3,9 4,4 5,8
External demand (*) 0,7 0,5 0,2 0,0
GDP mp 3,3 3,1 2,5 2,3
Spain Outlook 1Q18
This report has been produced by the Spain and Portugal Unit
Chief Economist for Spain and Portugal Miguel Cardoso
+34 91 374 39 61
BBVA-ResearchJorge Sicilia Serrano
Macroeconomic Analysis
Rafael Doménech
Global Macroeconomic Scenarios
Miguel Jiménez
Global Financial Markets
Sonsoles Castillo
Long-Term Global Modelling
and Analysis
Julián Cubero
Innovation and Processes
Oscar de las Peñas
Financial Systems and REgulation
Santiago Fernández de Lis
International Coordination
Olga Cerqueira
Digital Regulation
Álvaro Martín
Regulation
Financial Systems
Ana Rubio
Financial Inclusion
Spain and Portugal
Miguel Cardoso
USA
Nathaniel Karp
Mexico
Carlos Serrano
Middle East, Asia and
Geopolitical
Álvaro Ortiz
Turkey
Álvaro Ortiz
Asia
Le Xia
South America
Juan Manuel Ruiz
Argentina
Gloria Sorensen
Chile
Jorge Selaive
Colombia
Juana Téllez
Peru
Hugo Perea
Venezuela
Julio Pineda
Ignacio Archondo
+34 673 70 60 36
Giancarlo Carta
+34 673 69 41 73
Antonio Marín
+34 648 600 596
Virginia Pou
+34 91 537 77 23
Pep Ruiz
+34 91 537 55 67
Camilo Andrés Ulloa
+34 91 537 84 73
Joseba Barandiaran
+34 94 487 67 39
Juan Ramón García
+34 91 374 33 39
Myriam Montañez
+34 638 80 85 04
Camilo Rodado
+34 91 537 54 77
Angie Suárez
+34 91 374 86 03
With the collaboration of:
Global Macroeconomic Scenarios Global Financial Markets Financial Systems
Miguel Jiménez
Sonsoles Castillo
Ana Rubio
ENQUIRIES TO: BBVA Research: Calle Azul, 4. Edificio de la Vela - 4ª y 5ª plantas. 28050 Madrid, Spain. Tel. +34 91 374 60 00 y +34 91 537 70 00 / Fax +34 91 374 30 25 - [email protected] / www.bbvaresearch.com / Legal Deposit: M-31254-2000
