Space whether affects on power systems: prediction, risk analysis and modeling

ІКД

Vitaliy YatsenkoPanos Pardalos

Nikita BoikoSteffen Rebbenack

Space Research InstituteNASU & NSAU

University of Florida

Problem

• Modeling natural space ionizing radiation effects on devices and materials

• Space whether prediction

• Risk analysisspace nuclear power systems electrons damage satellitesnano-engineered super-capacitorsmicro-solar power systems optical devices and lasers

Space weather describes the

physical

processes induced by solar activity

that have impact on our terrestrial

and space environment, on ground

based and space technological

systems, and on human activities

and health.

What is space weather?

Early views

Manifestations of space weather

Space weather affects on electrical power system

• Space weather storm can cause electricity to flow in Earth’s atmosphere

• Space weather storm mess up the flow of electricity to homes

• Transformers work fine with AC (alternating current) electricity, but can damage if too much DC (direct current) electricity flows into them.

Electrons damage satellites

In January 1994, three geostationary satellites suffered total failures of their momentum wheel control circuitry. Services were affected for hours, and one satellite never fully recovered. At the time it was well known that satellites could suffer damage when high energy particles were emitted from the sun during an explosive Solar Particle Event (SPE). Protons and electrons travelling at relativistic speeds (a significant fraction of the speed of light such as 0.3c) could impact with orbiting satellites causing damage in a number of different ways. In this case, however, no SPE had been observed.

•establishing the scientific basis to understand physical phenomena and processes in near space;

•developing operational tools to predict and forecast them.

Main goals of space weather

Space weather measurements

Space weather on the Earth is measured by geomagnetic indices. There are lots of them, but the most widely used are 3: storm-time disturbance Dst, planetary index Kp and auroral index AE.

Number of traumas due to traffic accidents in Kyiv correlates with solar activity

The most straightforward approach in

understanding the dynamics of the

magnetosphere is to study the whole

complex chain of physical processes

involved in its dynamics and to

conjugate them in a global model of the

evolution of the magnetosphere under

the influence of the solar wind.

Introduction

Problem

• Space radiation comes in many forms and affects electronic components in diverse ways.

• Aerospace investigations of how energetic particles interact with integrated circuits and other electronics have been helping spacecraft designers and mission planners minimize the risk of component failure or performance degradation.

ProblemProblemProblem

Problem

• Explosions on the Sun create storms of radiation, fluctuating magnetic fields, and swarms of energetic particles.

• These phenomena travel outward through the Solar System with the solar wind.

• Upon arrival at Earth, they interact in complex ways with Earth's magnetic field, creating Earth's radiation belts and the Aurora.

• Some space weather storms can damage satellites, disable electric power grids, and disrupt cell phone communications systems.

ProblemProblemProblem

Solar wind parameters

• solar wind speed

• density• positive ions• protons• magnetic field• electric field

Black Box Prediction

Device Risk Analysis

Solar wind parameters

Black Box Prediction

Device Risk Analysis

Fig. 1 Prediction and Risk Analysis

Problem

u(k)

z=f(v,u)

v(k)

y(k+1) y(k+m)

μ(v)=Ef(v,u)

V

B

E

Problem

Experimental data

The SPDF hosts the S3C Active Archive, which consists of web-based services for survey and high resolution data, trajectories, and modeling software. The Facility delivers value-added services and leads in the definition, development, operation, and promotion of collaborative projects.

Dynamic-information forecasting of Dst index

Solar wind parameters

Dst index

Magnetosphere is considered as a

nonlinear complex

dynamical system

Dst is sought for as an output of a

nonlinear dynamical “black-

box”Data are from OMNI2 database:

http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/omniweb/and Kyoto WDC for Geomagnetism:

http://swdcdb.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/

“Black-box model” approach

• Discrete recursive (nonlinear autoregressive moving average model with exogenous inputs) models are considered. This is a so-called ‘black box’ or ‘input-output’ model, which seeks only to reproduce the behaviour of the system’s output in response to changes in its setpoint or inputs.

• One of the most important features of models is that model terms are physically interpretable. For example, discrete and continuous time models of the evolution of Dst can be derived using NARMAX methodology.

Dynamical-information approach

• Dynamical-information approach is based on the “black-box” model and Lyapunov exponents to describe magnetospheric dynamics.

• Reconstruction of the dynamical model is based upon the application of multiobjective learning algorithms to identification of model’s structure and parameters.

• A forecasting algorithm based on Lyapunov exponents is also proposed.

Dynamical-information approach

• Time domain techniques are used to identify a dynamical model for the evolution of the Dst index under the influence of the solar wind.

• Frequency domain analysis of this model is used to study spectral properties of the Dst index dynamics.

Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average model with eXogenous input.

)()](),...,1(),(),...,(),(),...1([)( knkknkukunkykyFky uy

yk(): system output

uk(): system input()k: noiseF[] nonlinear function (polynomial, rational, B-spline, RBF)

F[.]

( )k

y k( )u k( )

Mathematical models

y(k) = F[y(k - 1),…,y(k - n), u(k - 1), …, u(k - n), ξ(k - 1),…,ξ(k - n)+ξ(k)]

1 0 0 1

1 )(),...,(...)(i

i

jjjii dtuhty

)))()((/()))()(((22

kykykykyJ

Optimization problem

y (k) = ψ(k - 1)T θ + ξ (k) (1)

min J(θ) subject to (2)

D

Numerical algorithms

For structure and parameter identification we use two numerical methods:

• Genetic optimization

• Nonlinear optimization with constraints

Results (genetic optimization)

A comparison of the model predicted values of Dst (red) with real measurements of the

Dst (blue) for the test interval.

Results (Nonlinear optimization)D

st,

nT

N, hours

Numerical resultsyi = 1.36 yi−1 − 4.99 ui−1 − 0.18 yi−2 ui−1 − 0.57

yi−4 −

−1.43 ui−4 ui−6 − 0.75 yi−2 + 0.53 yi−3 +0.1 yi−3 ui−1 +

+0.36 yi−5 + 0.92 ui−6 ui−7 + 2.71 ui−2 +0.08 yi−3 ui−2 +

+0.78 ui−2 ui−5 − 0.91 ui−5 + 0.25 ui−7 ui−12 )))()((/()))()(((

22

kykykyky

Identification of linear perturbations

Local maxima correspond to magnetospheric eigenmodes

Frequency, h-1

phase

magnitude

(Balikhin et al., 2001)(Cheremnykh & Yatsenko, 2007)

Neural network prediction of interplanetary shocks

• Neural network prediction method based on the data from 5 data channels of ACE spacecraft (EPAM)

• Preliminary experimental research showing promising capabilities of the method

1

2

N

1y

3y 3

1 1

5

1x

8x

1h

2h

11h ijw

kiw

Risk Analysis of Laser Elements for Complex Characterization of

Damages by Space Radiation • Dynamic probabilistic risk analysis of optical

elements for complex characterization of damages using physical model of solid state lasers and predictable level of ionizing radiation and space weather. • The following models and software have been studied: solid-state laser model mathematical models for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment software for modeling and prediction of ionizing radiation

Risk Analysis of Laser Elements for Complex Characterization of

Damages by Space Radiation• Probabilistic risk assessment is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in solid-state lasers for the purpose of cost-effectively improving their safety and performance.• This method based on the Conditional Value-at-Risk measure (CVaR) and the expected loss exceeding Value-at-Risk (VaR). • We propose to use a new dynamical-information approach for radiation damage risk assessment of laser elements by cosmic radiation.

Optimization problem with constraints on risk

Let z=f(v,u) be a loss function of a device depending upon the control vector v and a random vector u. The control vector v belongs to a feasible set V, satisfying imposed requirements. We assume that the random vector u has a probability density p(u). We can define a function

Optimization model

Papers

1. O. Cheremnykh, V. Yatsenko, O. Semeniv, Iu. Shatokhina. Nonlinear dynamical model for space weather prediction. Ukr. Phys. J. - 2008. - 53, N 5. - P. 502-505.

2. P. Pardalos, V. Yatsenko. Optimization approach to the estimation and control of Lyapunov exponents. Optimization Theory and its Applications, 2006, 128(1).-P. 29-48.

Conclusion• The following models have been proposed: (a)

solar wind influences on devices; (b) forecasting of ionizing radiation; and (c) risk assessment in safety analysis.

• An application of the multicriterion optimization method to the prediction of the Dst index was proposed.

• Two novel algorithms of the identification of discrete input-output models have been developed.

• The simulation results shown that the proposed technique provides an efficient method to get the optimum difference equation model of the Dst index.

Thank you for coming!