Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs

Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs

Howard J. Singer NOAA Space Environment CenterNSF Workshop on Small Satellite Missions for

Space Weather and Atmospheric ResearchGeorge Mason University, Arlington, VA

May 17, 2007

Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs 2

OutlineSpace Weather Satellite Observing Capabilities in Operations

Space Weather Observing Needs

NOAA’s Observing System Architecture

Conclusions

Acknowledgments: Baker, Doggett, Murtagh, O’Connor, Onsager, Tayler, Viereck


NOAA POES

NOAA GOES

NASA ACE

ESA/NASA SOHO

L1

Monitor, Measure and Specify:

Data for Today’s Space Weather

•ACE (NASA)–Solar wind speed, density, temperature and energetic particles–Vector Magnetic field

•SOHO (ESA/NASA)–Solar EUV Images–Solar Corona (CMEs)

•GOES (NOAA)–Energetic Particles–Magnetic Field–Solar X-ray Flux–Solar EUV Flux–Solar X-Ray Images

•POES (NOAA)–High Energy Particles–Total Energy Deposition–Solar UV Flux

•Ground Sites–Magnetometers (NOAA/USGS)–Thule Riometer and Neutron monitor (USAF)–SOON Sites (USAF)–RSTN (USAF)–Telescopes and Magnetographs–Ionosondes (AF, ISES, …)–GPS (CORS)


Utilizing Non-NOAA Observations and Data

By continued awareness of, and involvement in research programs, SEC can encourage and work together with non-NOAA satellite programs to provide data for operational use. –ACE: Through an interagency partnership, NASA modified the ACE spacecraft to provide continuous real-time data

–IMAGE: Through an interagency partnership, NASA modified the IMAGE spacecraft to provide continuous real-time data.

–Living With A Star: Through involvement on NASA definition panels, SEC has encouraged NASA to define satellite programs that include utility to space weather forecasting and specification (Solar Dynamics Observatory, RBSP, …)

– STEREO: Through interagency planning, NOAA is obtaining real-time data from a satellite beacon that is being used by operations for forecasts and warnings of impending geomagnetic storms.


Uses of Space Weather Data

Indicators of State of the System

Input to Drive Models

Data Assimilation

Validate Model Output

Instrument Calibration/Validation

Research

Estimated Planetary K indexBased on Ground Magnetometers

Magnetospheric Specification ModelInput parameters: Kp, Dst, Vpc, PC pattern, equatorward boundary auroral precipitation, solar wind velocity and density, IMF, DMSP precip flux, sum Kp


CISM: Huang et al.

Uses of Space Weather Data: Magnetometer Data Needed for Space Weather Model Validation

The geosynchronous magnetic field is used to validate models and eventually may be assimilated into models. It will be vital for models run in operations.

U. Of Michigan (Gombosi et al.)

U. Mich. Gombosi et al.

UNH: Raeder et al.

Multiple groups of MHD modelers rely on the GOES magnetic field data for validating their models.


Major Space Weather Customer Needs

Communication outage probability

Solar energetic particle probability

Flare probability

Ground dB/dt probability

Human radiation exposure probability

Satellite radiation exposure probability

Ionospheric Total Electron Content probability


NOAA Space Environment CenterHighest Priority Operational Needs

Solar energetic particle event forecasts, including start time, end time, peak flux, time of peak flux, spectra, fluence, and probability of occurrence

Solar wind data from L1

Solar coronagraph data

Energetic electron flux prediction for International Space Station

Regional geomagnetic activity nowcasts and forecasts

Ionospheric maps of TEC and scintillation (real-time and future)

Geomagnetic indices (e.g., Ap, Kp, Dst) and probability forecasts

Solar particle degradation of polar HF radio propagation

Background solar wind prediction

2006; not priority ordered


NOAA Space Environment CenterHigh Priority Operational Needs

Geomagnetic activity predictions (1-7 days) based on CME observations, coronal hole observations, solar magnetic observations, and ACE/EPAM observations

Visualization of disturbances in interplanetary space (e.g. view from above the ecliptic tracking an ICME)

Geomagnetic storm end-time forecast

Real-time estimates of geomagnetic indices

Real-time quality diagnostics (verification) of all warning/watch/forecast products

Routine statistical and/or numerical guidance for all forecast quantities (e.g., climatological forecasts of flares, geomagnetic indices and probabilities, and F10.7—similar to NWS Model Output Statistics)

Improved image analysis capability (e.g., for GOES-13 SXI, STEREO, SDO)

Short-term (days) F10.7 forecasts

Short-term (days) X-ray flare forecasts

Magnetopause crossing forecasts based on L1 data

EUV index2006; not priority ordered


Customer Growth: Demand New Products

Increasing customer needs for space weather information drove several new products

The demand for space weather products is growing even as we approach solar minimum

The NOAA Space Environment Center website is serving more than 250,000 unique customers per month from 150 countries…in solar minimum!

SEC Product Subscription Registrations2005 - 2007

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

M onth

To

tal

Nu

mb

er o

f R

egis

trat

ion

s


Customer UsesEconomic Impacts of Space Weather

The advent of new long range aircraft such as theA340-500/600, B777-300ER and B777-200LR

Next 6 Years:

Airlines operating China-US routes go from 4 to 9Number of weekly flights from 54 to 249

Next 12 Years:

1.8 million polar route passengers by 2019

Airlines and Space Weather

• Airborne Survey Data Collection: $50,000 per day

• Marine Seismic Data Collection: $80,000-$200,000 per day

• Offshore Oil Rig Operation: $300,000-$1,000,000 per day

GPS Global Production Value—expected growth:

2003 - $13 billion

2008 - $21.5 billion

2017 - $757 billionIndustrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) – Mar 2005

Global Positioning System

Space Radiation Hazards and the Vision for Space Exploration


Observation Requirements Process - Past

Agency

Level

System

Segment

Process Characteristics

• Limited NOAA-wide requirements collection

• Requirements are system-, not agency-, based

• One Level of Trade Studies

• No formal translation of requirements to product processing, distribution, archive and assimilation

NWSOTHERS

TradeStudies

SpaceSpace

C3LAUNCH

GOES

NWS

OTHERS

POES

SpaceSpace

TradeStudiesTradeStudie

s

TradeStudie

s

LAUNCHC3


Observation Requirements Process - New Consolidated Consolidated

Observation Observation RequirementsRequirements

Other Federal Federal AgenciesAgenciesUSDA

EPA

NASA

DHS

DoD

EcosystemsClimateWeather and WaterCommerce and Transportation

DOC/NOAA

Interagency RequirementsInteragency RequirementsCollection ProcessCollection Process

External RequirementsExternal RequirementsCollection ProcessCollection Process

Research and AcademicMedia and

CommercialMeteorological CentersInternational

Partners

SPACE

Trade Studies

OCEAN LAND AIR

Trade Studies Trade Studies Trade Studies Trade Studies

System F System J

System H

System E

System N

System L

Federal Program/System Development Federal Program/System Development PhasePhase

Program/System Deployment and Operations Program/System Deployment and Operations PhasePhase

System G

System D

System C

Data CollectionData Collection

Data Data DistributionDistribution

Product GenerationProduct GenerationUser User AssimilationAssimilationArchiveArchive

?PlatformCoverageSensor Suite




?Platform LocationCoverageSensor Suite

International SystemsInternational Systems

Other Federal SystemsOther Federal Systems

Commercial SystemsCommercial Systems

System I

Commercial Commercial Program/System Program/System

Development/Development/Deployment and Deployment and

Operations PhaseOperations Phase

System K

System M

System B

System A

Architecture Architecture DevelopmentDevelopment

System O

Trade Studies Trade Studies Trade Studies Trade Studies


Observation T Spatial

Requirement / Cov

O V V U V_Lo V_Hi U V U V U V U V U

T 35 deg pitch angle

na na9x10 4̂ E (̂-1.3)

8x10 8̂ E (̂-0.8)

(cm 2̂ s sr keV) (̂-1)

25 %30 - 30,000

eV 15differential logarithmic bands

30 sec

O20 deg pitch angle

na na9x10 4̂ E (̂-1.3)

8x10 8̂ E (̂-0.8)

(cm 2̂ s sr keV) (̂-1)

10 %30 - 30,000

eV 15differential logarithmic bands

10 sec

T na na1.9x10^6 E (̂-2.2)

7.2x10^11 E (̂-2.8)

(cm 2̂ s sr keV) (̂-1)

25 %30 - >4,000

keV 10

differential logarithmic bands from 30 - 4000 keV; One integral band >2000 keV

30 sec

O20 deg pitch angle

na na1.9x10^6 E (̂-2.2)

7.2x10^11 E (̂-2.8)

(cm 2̂ s sr keV) (̂-1)

10 %30 - >4,000

keV 10

10 differential logarithmic bands from 30 - 4000 keV; One integral band >2000 keV

10 sec

T

Global coverage; 2 look directions

25 km 100 5X10 7̂1/(cm 2̂-s-str)

> of {100 or 5}

1/(cm 2̂-s-str) or %

0.05-4 MeV 5logarithmically spaced bands

25 km

O

Global coverage; multiple look directions

10 km 50 2X10 8̂1/(cm 2̂-s-str)

> of {50 or 1}

1/(cm 2̂-s-str) or %

0.05-4 MeV 7logarithmically spaced bands

10 km

Electron: Medium & High Energy, LEO

1

Electrons & Protons: Low Energy, GEO

1

Magnetospheric Electrons: Medium & High Energy, GEO

1

Sampling Interval

Measurement Range

Measurement Accuracy

Spectral/ Energy Range

Spectral/ Energy ResolutionPri

Spa Ang Res

NOAA Observing System Architecture (NOSA)Consolidated Observation Requirements List (CORL)Example SpWx Priority 1 Observation Requirements


Conclusions

Described current space weather observations used in operations Identified space weather needs that might be addressed with small satellite missions Illustrated space weather customer growth that demonstrates a need for new observations and products Highligted the value of selecting an NSF small satellite project that supports both research and operations Defined the NOAA observation process that is set up to encourage working with partners and selecting the best platform to meet an observational need


Contact Information:

Howard J. Singer, ChiefScience and Technology Infusion BranchNOAA Space Environment Center325 BroadwayBoulder, CO 80305303 497 [email protected]

Documents

Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs