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© 2016 XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. | MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 1
Space Insurance Update Part I
2 November 2016 Christopher T.W. Kunstadter
XL Catlin
© 2016 XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. | MAKE YOUR WORLD GO
Agenda
2
Part I
Commercial Space Market
Part II
Space Insurance Metrics
Space Insurance Losses
Conclusion
© 2016 XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. | MAKE YOUR WORLD GO
0
25
50
75
100Non-GEOGEO
Launches To Orbit
3
GEO market has been flat for many years
© 2016 XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. | MAKE YOUR WORLD GO
0
25
50
75
100OTHER MISC
OTHER US
OTHER RUSSIAN
OTHER JAPAN
OTHER CHINA
ZENIT
VEGA
SOYUZ
PSLV
PROTON
LONG MARCH
H-IIA/B
GSLV
FALCON
DELTA
ATLAS
ARIANE
Launch Capture Shares of all orbital launches, by vehicle
4
Launch Year
© 2016 XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. | MAKE YOUR WORLD GO
Satellites Launched
5
© 2016 XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. | MAKE YOUR WORLD GO
GEO Satellite Capture By manufacturer
6
Year Launched
© 2016 XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. | MAKE YOUR WORLD GO
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
Separated Mass vs. Launch Date All GEO satellites
7
Sep
ara
ted
Mass (
kg
)
Launch Date
“Ariane lower gap” →
© 2016 XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. | MAKE YOUR WORLD GO
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Payload Power vs. Launch Date All GEO satellites
8
Paylo
ad
Po
wer
(W)
Launch Date
20 kW+ payloads
anticipated by 2019
© 2016 XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. | MAKE YOUR WORLD GO
0
1
2
3
4
Payload Power vs. Separated Mass Commercial GEO satellites
9
Paylo
ad
Po
wer
÷ S
ep
ara
ted
Mass
Launch Date
EP drives this ratio up →
© 2016 XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. | MAKE YOUR WORLD GO
New Space Industry Reality Check Adapted from Tauri Group presentation
10
Proposed systems largely viewed as technically credible Mix of business experience, from global entrepreneurs to technologists
Meaningful investment to date, with potential for more
Capacity drivers are mobility, IFC, streaming, interactive, IoT >70% of IP traffic is video, expected to be 82% by 2020
Global IP traffic will increase nearly 3x over next 5 years
Wireless and mobile devices will account for 2/3rds of total IP traffic by 2020
Many business cases not proven Uncertain demand and revenue potential, and limited market analysis
Many new companies chasing coat-tails of industry leaders
Major challenges Massive magnitude of investment
Long timelines
Complex technologies
Supply chain stress
New launch vehicles
Smaller satellites = less redundancy, less testing
Geopolitical, legal, regulatory, and economic issues abound
© 2016 XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. | MAKE YOUR WORLD GO
New Launch Vehicles
11
Within the next five years, all
of the world’s major launch
vehicles will be replaced…
…in addition to numerous
new launch vehicles
© 2016 XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. | MAKE YOUR WORLD GO
A Launcher Market Scenario…
12
Launch capacity is currently constrained by
production, launch sites, etc.
Number of proposed satellite systems has increased
significantly, most based on small satellites ⬆⬆⬆⬆
Number of satellites actually launched will increase somewhat,
as many systems will never come to fruition ⬆⬆⬆
Number of launches will increase slightly with
increase in small satellites to be launched ⬆⬆
Mass to orbit (kg) will increase slightly ⬆
$/kg launch cost will reduce with new launch vehicles ⬇
Launch revenue will decline, due to lower $/kg and
launcher competition ⬇⬇
Profitability among launch providers will suffer ⬇⬇⬇
© 2016 XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. | MAKE YOUR WORLD GO
Gartner Hype Cycle
13
Technology
trigger
Peak of
inflated
expectations
Trough of
disillusionment
Slope of
enlightenment
Plateau of
productivity
…but you can fall
off at any time
© 2016 XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. | MAKE YOUR WORLD GO
Where Does This Leave Us?
14
Do you recognize anyone?
© 2016 XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. | MAKE YOUR WORLD GO
But There Is Hope…
15
© 2016 XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. | MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 16
Space Insurance Update Part II
4 November 2016 Christopher T.W. Kunstadter
XL Catlin
© 2016 XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. | MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 17
Space for new ideas… …new ideas for space
Christopher T.W. Kunstadter
Senior Vice President and
Global Underwriting Manager - Space
XL Catlin
+1 212-915-6387