SPACE DATA PROCESSINGSPACE DATA PROCESSING:: FOREST FOREST FIRESFIRES AND HUMANAND HUMAN HEALTHHEALTH

BBring together three advanced but ring together three advanced but separate technologies:separate technologies:

•RREMOTE SENSING OF FOREST FIRESEMOTE SENSING OF FOREST FIRES

•HHEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT EALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

•INTERNETINTERNET

MoscowRussia

SpaceResearc

hInstitute

BorisBalter

MariaStalnaya

VictorEgorov

CONTENTSCONTENTS

HEALTH RISK: HEALTH RISK: EHIPSEHIPS APPROACH APPROACH

FIRES: RISK SEEN FROM SPACEFIRES: RISK SEEN FROM SPACE

P2P: RISK INFO FOR/FROM ALLP2P: RISK INFO FOR/FROM ALL

CYCLING: RISK MANAGEMENTCYCLING: RISK MANAGEMENT

GLOBAL CHANGEGLOBAL CHANGE

FROM EHIPS EXPERIENCE TO GLOBAL P2P PROJECTFROM EHIPS EXPERIENCE TO GLOBAL P2P PROJECT

RISK ASSESSMENT DATAFLOWRISK ASSESSMENT DATAFLOW

INPUTINPUT DATADATA::•SOURCE EMISSIONSOURCE EMISSION•PLUME-DEFINING PARAMETERSPLUME-DEFINING PARAMETERS•METEOROLOGYMETEOROLOGY•POPULATION EXPOSURE SCENARIOSPOPULATION EXPOSURE SCENARIOS•POLLUTANT TOXICITIESPOLLUTANT TOXICITIES•PERSONAL SENSITIVITIESPERSONAL SENSITIVITIES

OUTPUTOUTPUT DATA:DATA:RISK UNFOLDING BY:

•COHORTS (RISK GROUPS)COHORTS (RISK GROUPS)•TIME (FORECAST)TIME (FORECAST)•SPACE (MAPPING)SPACE (MAPPING)

RISK ASSESSMENT LOGICRISK ASSESSMENT LOGIC

Toxicity/sensitivitydistribution: groups

P(P

SF

)

Personal slope factor PSF

Young

Elderly

Risk distribution

Spa

ce

Group

Time

Home

Work

Route 1

Route 2

Exposure distribution:time

Source

Concentrationdistribution: space

Wind

EHIPSEHIPS

EENVIRONMENTALNVIRONMENTAL HHEALTHEALTH IINFORMATIONNFORMATION PPROCESSINGROCESSING SSYSTEMYSTEM

NOW: USED FOR INDUSTRIAL POLLUTION IN CITIESNOW: USED FOR INDUSTRIAL POLLUTION IN CITIES

CAN BE: USED FOR HEALTH EFFECTS OF FOREST FIRESCAN BE: USED FOR HEALTH EFFECTS OF FOREST FIRES

NOW: WORKS IN THE HANDS OF EXPERTS ONLYNOW: WORKS IN THE HANDS OF EXPERTS ONLY

CAN: EMBED EXPERTISE INTO PROCESSING PIPELINECAN: EMBED EXPERTISE INTO PROCESSING PIPELINE

EHIPS: INFORMATION FLOWSEHIPS: INFORMATION FLOWS

EHIPS: RESEARCH TOOL FOR RISKEHIPS: RESEARCH TOOL FOR RISK

FEATURESFEATURES•EXPERT MODE SETS PARAMS FOR PIPELINE PROCESSINGEXPERT MODE SETS PARAMS FOR PIPELINE PROCESSING

•RISK ASSESSMENT CONTINUED TO HEALTH OUTCOMESRISK ASSESSMENT CONTINUED TO HEALTH OUTCOMES

•ALTERNATIVE MODELS FOR POLLUTANT DISPERSIONALTERNATIVE MODELS FOR POLLUTANT DISPERSION

•FLEXIBLE MODELS FOR EXPOSURE SCENARIOFLEXIBLE MODELS FOR EXPOSURE SCENARIO

•HARMONIZING MODELED AND OBSERVED VALUESHARMONIZING MODELED AND OBSERVED VALUES

•MULTI-CYCLE, NOT SINGLE CALCULATIONMULTI-CYCLE, NOT SINGLE CALCULATION

www.iki.rssi.ru/ehips/welcome.htm

HARMONIZE MODEL & OBSERVEDHARMONIZE MODEL & OBSERVED

ModelModelDataData

1-yearseriesraw

Station 1 Station 2

ModelData

2-dayseries

Fit good for 1

station only

FIRE: USE MODEL LESSONS LEARNEDFIRE: USE MODEL LESSONS LEARNED

MODELLED CONCENTRATIONS FIT DATA ON THE MODELLED CONCENTRATIONS FIT DATA ON THE AVERAGE ONLY, NOT IN SHORT-TIME EVENTSAVERAGE ONLY, NOT IN SHORT-TIME EVENTS

GAUSSIAN DISPERSION MODELS INSUFFICIENT, GAUSSIAN DISPERSION MODELS INSUFFICIENT, MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NEEDEDMESOSCALE MODELS ARE NEEDED

MAIN SOURCE OF ERROR IS PLUME NOT SOURCE MAIN SOURCE OF ERROR IS PLUME NOT SOURCE (SOLUTION: DIRECT OBSERVATION OF PLUMES)(SOLUTION: DIRECT OBSERVATION OF PLUMES)

FIRE: EHIPS LOGIC+SPACE DATAFIRE: EHIPS LOGIC+SPACE DATA

Model

DataSource image Model-data overlap Discrepancy map

Wind options

High altitude

Low altitude

Source choiceBackpropagation ofdispersion to source

High

source

Low

Discrepancy

map

SPACE-FED SPACE-FED FFEHIPS: DATAFLOWEHIPS: DATAFLOW

ADDING NEW INPUTS:ADDING NEW INPUTS:REMOTE SENSING DATA HUBS: HUGE FIRESREMOTE SENSING DATA HUBS: HUGE FIRESMETEO DATA HUBS: VERTICAL PROFILESMETEO DATA HUBS: VERTICAL PROFILESGIS DATA STORES: TERRAIN, POPULATIONGIS DATA STORES: TERRAIN, POPULATIONINDIVIDUALS: EXPOSURE SCENARIOSINDIVIDUALS: EXPOSURE SCENARIOSINDIVIDUALS: HEALTH EFFECT FEEDBACKINDIVIDUALS: HEALTH EFFECT FEEDBACK

GETTING NEW OUTPUTS:GETTING NEW OUTPUTS:SELF-CORRECTING MODEL FORECASTSSELF-CORRECTING MODEL FORECASTSHEALTH HAZARD SPINOFF TO FIRE CONTROLHEALTH HAZARD SPINOFF TO FIRE CONTROLLOCKED-IN MONITORING-CONTROL CYCLESLOCKED-IN MONITORING-CONTROL CYCLES

FIRE EHIPSFIRE EHIPS-BASED CYCLES-BASED CYCLES

Cycles

EHIPS cycle

Fire control

Behavior control

TTHREE TIERS OF THE SYSTEMHREE TIERS OF THE SYSTEM

1)1) Remote detection and classification of Remote detection and classification of forest fires (FMS)forest fires (FMS)

2)2) Assessment of health risk from air Assessment of health risk from air pollution by smoke plume (EHIPS)pollution by smoke plume (EHIPS)

3) 3) IInformation exchange in peer-to-peer nformation exchange in peer-to-peer networks networks (P2P)(P2P)

P2PP2P

CENTRALIZED vs. DISTRIBUTEDCENTRALIZED vs. DISTRIBUTED

P2P: INFORMATION FEEDBACKSP2P: INFORMATION FEEDBACKS

INSTITUTIONAL P2P NODES FEED WITH FIRE DATA FROM INSTITUTIONAL P2P NODES FEED WITH FIRE DATA FROM FMS AND PROVIDE RISK ESTIMATES IN RETURNFMS AND PROVIDE RISK ESTIMATES IN RETURN

INDIVIDUALS PROVIDE EXPOSURE / HEALTH INFORMATION INDIVIDUALS PROVIDE EXPOSURE / HEALTH INFORMATION TO GET THEIR OWN RISK FROM CONCENTRATIONSTO GET THEIR OWN RISK FROM CONCENTRATIONS

INDIVIDUALS INDIRECTLY INDICATE TO THE SYSTEM THE INDIVIDUALS INDIRECTLY INDICATE TO THE SYSTEM THE EFFECTIVENSS OF BEHAVIOR CONTROLEFFECTIVENSS OF BEHAVIOR CONTROL

INTELLECTUAL CENTER (INTELLECTUAL CENTER (I-CENTER) COORDINATES ALL ) COORDINATES ALL FEEDBACK CYCLES:FEEDBACK CYCLES:

EHIPS-BASED P2P SYSTEMEHIPS-BASED P2P SYSTEM

Centralized information

Decentralizedinformation

Network nodes

Hardware Software

Peer-to-peer operations

OPTIMAL CONTROLOPTIMAL CONTROL

BENEFITS OF USING OPTIMAL CONTROL ALGORITHMSBENEFITS OF USING OPTIMAL CONTROL ALGORITHMS

TRACKING THE EFFECT OF BEHAVIOR ADVICETRACKING THE EFFECT OF BEHAVIOR ADVICE

MAKING EXPLICIT THE CRITERIA OF SUCCESSMAKING EXPLICIT THE CRITERIA OF SUCCESS

QUANTIFYNG THE VALUE OF INFORMATIONQUANTIFYNG THE VALUE OF INFORMATION

ASSESSMENT ASSESSMENT MANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT

OBSERVATION OBSERVATION CONTROLLING CONTROLLING

RISK

=OPTIMALCONTROL

I-CENTER: MEDIATORI-CENTER: MEDIATOR

I-CENTERI-CENTER

NATURENATURE

HUMANSHUMANS

MonitoringMonitoring ControlControl

ScenariosScenarios CriteriaCriteria

DISTRIBUTING THE I-CENTERDISTRIBUTING THE I-CENTER

I-CENTER DELEGATES THE OPTIMAL CONTROL ‘IN THE I-CENTER DELEGATES THE OPTIMAL CONTROL ‘IN THE SMALL’ TO ELEMENTARY CYCLES IN P2PSMALL’ TO ELEMENTARY CYCLES IN P2P

DISTRIBUTED OPTIMAL CONTROL IS AS (OR MORE) DISTRIBUTED OPTIMAL CONTROL IS AS (OR MORE) EFFECTIVE AS THE CENTRALIZEDEFFECTIVE AS THE CENTRALIZED

ELEMENTARY CYCLE IS BUILT UPON PREDICTOR-ELEMENTARY CYCLE IS BUILT UPON PREDICTOR-CORRECTOR ALGORITHMS BUILT INTO EHIPSCORRECTOR ALGORITHMS BUILT INTO EHIPS

I-CENTER USES MORE COMPLICATED DUAL CONTROL I-CENTER USES MORE COMPLICATED DUAL CONTROL ALGORITHMS FOR GLOBAL P2P-FMS COOPERATIONALGORITHMS FOR GLOBAL P2P-FMS COOPERATION

NETWORK OF FEEDBACK CYCLESNETWORK OF FEEDBACK CYCLES

2nd level cycle

=Natural

homeostasis

Sense

React

Predict -correct

Track

ChangeElementary

node

==

Status

Advice

Monitoring

Control

I-centerHealthbalance

Forestbalance

Network of elementaryhomeostases

GLOBALGLOBAL

HEALTH: THE CORE OF SUSTAINABILITYHEALTH: THE CORE OF SUSTAINABILITY

HEALTH INVOLVES ALL SOCIETAL FACTORSHEALTH INVOLVES ALL SOCIETAL FACTORS

HEALTH: A ‘THERMOMETER’ FOR HEALTH: A ‘THERMOMETER’ FOR MONITORING GLOBAL CHANGEMONITORING GLOBAL CHANGE

P2P HEALTH NETWORK: PART OF DYNAMIC P2P HEALTH NETWORK: PART OF DYNAMIC BALANCE NETWORK FOR EARTHBALANCE NETWORK FOR EARTH

FEEDBACK AND OPTIMAL CONTROL FEEDBACK AND OPTIMAL CONTROL EMBEDDED INTO P2P NETWORKEMBEDDED INTO P2P NETWORK

GLOBAL P2P CONFIGURATIONGLOBAL P2P CONFIGURATION

ICIC

EHIPSEHIPS

FMSFMS

Health Health datadata

______ P2PP2Plineslines

______FMSFMSlineslines

IBM

GLOBAL CHANGE: A P2P ANSWERGLOBAL CHANGE: A P2P ANSWER

WHAT IS COMMONWHAT IS COMMON

FIRES – AN IMPORTANT LARGE-SCALE TESTFIRES – AN IMPORTANT LARGE-SCALE TEST

LESSONS FROM FIRES USABLE FOR GLOBAL CHANGELESSONS FROM FIRES USABLE FOR GLOBAL CHANGE

WHAT CAN MAKE DIFFERENCEWHAT CAN MAKE DIFFERENCE

UNCONTROLLABLE SOURCES - THEN BEHAVIOR UNCONTROLLABLE SOURCES - THEN BEHAVIOR CONTROL CYCLE RUNS ONLY CONTROL CYCLE RUNS ONLY

SOURCES CONTROLLABLE INDIVIDUALLY - THAT’S THE SOURCES CONTROLLABLE INDIVIDUALLY - THAT’S THE ‘MISSING LINK’ OF FIRE-ORIENTED P2P‘MISSING LINK’ OF FIRE-ORIENTED P2P

SOURCES DISTRIBUTED – USE P2P NETWORK ONLYSOURCES DISTRIBUTED – USE P2P NETWORK ONLY

TIMELINETIMELINE

EHIPSEHIPS

FIRE FIRE EHIPSEHIPS

I-I-CENTERCENTER

HEALTHHEALTHP2PP2P

GLOBAL GLOBAL P2PP2P