S&P 500 Commentary 12Feb12

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Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly Line On Close

Not really sure of what to make of this chart, but I thought it was interesting to see how the market has bounced around some important

Fibbonacci retracements off the March 2009 lows. The 78.62% retracement is a big deal according to some technicians--a break ofthat level usually means a full 100% retrace (1500s on the S&P).


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S&P 500 ~ Weekly Line on Close

c

( A )

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For the last five months weve been talking about major resistance at 1347 and how it was an important top. And now, here we are with

the S&P 500 vigorously testing this area. One of the reasons why this level is important is because of the proposed e-wave down that

finished the last x-wave. The start point of powerful e-waves in an expanding triangle should not be easily bested by the next wave.

Though, confidence in this wave count is waning

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- B -

( C )

Important Top

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( A )

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This is NOT my wave count or idea. This is a count that it is being promoted by Glenn Neely of NeoWave. I cant find too much wrong with

it, so it must be considered. He suggests a large contracting triangle from the March 2009 low. Because of the shape of the pattern and

the smallness of the b wave, its possible to get a marginally higher high before the (B) wave ultimately completes. It would be a triangle

with a strong upward sloping bias. I suppose this count, along with a marginally higher high, would inflict the most amount of pain

on the greatest number of people. The bulls would obviously be besides themselves if we were to set a fresh

high in 2012 and the bears would surely throw in the towel.

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( C )

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( B )


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( A )

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This count is yet another possibility if we take out the highs. This idea was discussed a few months ago and it must be considered. We

could be in the middle of large scale diametric. It certainly fits the mold of a diametric in the sense that all the legs have been corrective

and have taken similar amounts of time, a key element of a diametric. If this particular shape develops, it will confirm Neelys belief that

there are new wave forms that exist as this particular outcome would fit no known orthodox Elliott Wave pattern.

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S&P 500 ~ 120 min. with Weekly Support

Im not going to even try a shorter term count because this has become a ridiculously confusing pattern. The market is into key resistance

right now as it approaches the double top zone from last year (1347-1371). I would be surprised if the S&P 500 takes out that zone priorto a good retracement of some kind. The trend channel up is extremely well defined with plenty of touch points. This is a corrective

leg higher, so trading bulls need to be very quick to exit long positions when support breaks. Longs should consider 1,317 and 1,295 for

first and second points of support in the week ahead. Though, if that lower trend channel breaks,

this market will likely coast lower. That level looks like 1330 for Monday.


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S&P 500 Commentary 12Feb12