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8/18/2019 Soviet Military Personnel and Air Defense Vietnam
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1 5 OCT
21
N.I 7
SC
No, l0520/G5
1/
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Copy No. . 11
INTELLIGENCE
v E vl0RANDUM
SOVIET
MILITARY
PERSONNEL AND AIR
DEFENSE
OPERATIONS IN NORTH VIETNAM
,
09 OCT
1976
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Office
of
Current Intelligence
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.1 YNDON BAINES'
J O H N S 6 N L 1 B R
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SC
No.
10520/65
CENTRAL INtELLIGENCE
AGENCY
Off ice
of Current In t e l l i gence
21 October 1965
INTELLIGENCE
MEMORANDUM
Sovie t Mil i ta ry
Personnel
and Air Defense '
Op,era
t ions,i , '
Nor't)1 Vietl1amlt<
Suinmary
We
have no evidence
tha t
the number
o f
Sov ie t .
mil i t a ry personnel in North Vietnam
has
changed
appreciably
s ince
our
l a s t
assessment
i s sued
3
September.
Vietnamese
a re
p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n s u r
f a c e - t o - a i r
m i s s i l ~ opera t ions
to
a
grea t e r de
gree ,
a n ~ Sovie t
mi l i t a ry personnel a r e now ap
parent ly
a c t ing
most ly
in an advisory
capac i ty
r a the r
than as d i r ec t
pa r t i c ipan t s .
We
es t ima te
t h e i ~ t o t a l number
to
be about
1,500
with 1,000
of
them concerned with s u r f a c e - t o - a i r
mi ss i l e
opera
t l o n ~
and'500
concerned with f l i g h t t ra in ingand ad_
mi n i s t r a t i ve ,
l i a i son ,
and l o g i ~ t i c a l
func t ions .
1 . New SAM s i t e s cont inue
to
be
b u i l t in
North Vietnam
in groups of a l t e r n a t e
f i r i n g pos i
t i ops fo r the SA-2 un i t s . The growing Dumber of
s i t e s and
t h e i r d i s t r ibu t ion imply t h a t 2-3 S A ~ '
r eg imen ts (8-12 f i ~ i n g
bat t a l ions)
'may be opera t iona l
now. Pre s e n te v lde nc e ind i c a t e s t ha t these a re
manned
most ly by
North Vietnamese
r e c e iv ing on
t he - job t r a in ing
from
Sovie t personnel .
2 .
The,number
of s u r f a c e - t o - a i r
mi ss i l e
s i t e s in North Vietnam
has now
grown to more
,
than 30. However,
we
have .obta ined
littl e v i
dence
of
a
commel1sura te
i nc rease in
SAM
equDpment:,
nor 'does
any
ava i l ab le ' ev idence
sugges t
t h a t t he
number
of
Sovie t
p'ersonnel
in
the'DRV
has
inc reased . '
~ P r e p a r e o r n consUlta t ion with
DIA.
DIA, however,
~ s e s
the presen t number of opera t iona l SA-2 f i r
t r a t t a l i o n s as being 6-8
r a t he r
th?n 8-12. .
. L y n ~ ~ L b r ~
11
Y N ~
B A I ~ N F S 1 ( ) l 1 N S O ~ n
I B
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• The pat tern
of
SAM
s i t e const tuct ion, however, ~ g e s t s that several
s i t e s
are.
prepared
for
each f i r ing uni t
in
order to
employ
a
shoot-and-scoot
mode
of operat ions.
Present
s i t e
locations
are grouped in clus ters of three or
four s i t e s within a
few
miles of each other .
4. Analysis of th is
s i t e
construct ion pat tern
and of general SAM ac t iv i ty .suggests
: that
there now
are 8 to 12
f i r ing
bat ta l ions in operation. A s l t e
i s
normally manned by
a ba t ta l ion . )
The SAM opera
t ions seen
so far in the DRV read i ly divide
in to 6 •
.
or
7
possible :operat ional
areas ,
on
a
map.
We
assume
• I·
'
tha t
each operat ional
area
has
a t leas t
one
f i r -
, ing unit except in
the
area around
Hanoi
where
there
may
be
as
many a's
four.
r
I
. .
\
here
are three
SAM
regiments in North Vietnam, IOcated
respect ively
near
Hanoi, Than Hoa, and :H irhc,., '.
Each regiment probably has
a
standard complement
of four
f i r ing
bat ta l ions .
5. In August
we
estimated tha t
there
were a t
leas t 1 0 0 0 S o ~ i e t SAM
operat ing
personnel in North
Vietnam although
we
did
not detect
when or how
they entered . Since
that
time
no l r g ~ new
cop.-
'
t i n g e ~ t
of Soviet
mili tary
has been noted act ive
in
Vie·t·nal l; t
i s
possible the Soviet
SAM
p e r s o n : ~
nel
fn the DRV have been divided in to advisory
groups and·assignedto,various·SAM i ns t a l l a t ions .
: This was done in
Cuba,·
where the SAM training · of
Cubans required approximately
one
year • While
the. s t a t e of our evidence
does
not· permit
us
to
exclude
larger
Soviet
SAM
forces being present or
introduced, especia l ly i f more equipment i s brought
in ,
it
now
appears more
l ike ly tha t the number of
Soviet
SAM
personnel wil l
remain
a t a level
close
to
1,000;
The
number
may even be
reduced as
more Vietnamese
are t ra ined to man the
SA-2 s i t e s .
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8 .
The su r f ace - to -a i r
miss i l es
committed
aga ins t US a i r c r a f t s ince l a t e August, al though
grea t e r in number, have been much l e s s e f f e c t i v e
than
those launched ea r l i e r . For ins tance , seven
miss i l e s
f i r ed
between
24
Ju ly
and
24
August r e
su l t ed
in the downing
of
four
US
a i r c r a f t ;
t he
same number
launched
between 25 August and 14 Sep-
tember did
not produce
any damage.
On 20 septem-
ber
a t l e a s t t en S Ms
were
committed
agains t
US
a i r c ra f t
dur ing two a i r s t r i k e s along t he
r il
l i nk with
China;
a l l
missed. Miss i le s a re still
being
launched
a t US
a i r c r a f t
a t an
acce l e ra t ed
r a t e ,
but
re su l t s cont inue to
be
poor .
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9. The apparent ineffectiveness of the sur face
to-a i r missi les
can
pe
explained
by such factors as
the high maneuverabil i ty of US t ac t ica l
a i r c ra f t im
proved
t ac t ics and use of elect ronic
countermeasures
on
the par t
of
US pi lo ts .
and degradatfon of S M
.
equipment
because
of
humid
weather
condit ions
or ex
tensi ve
mobile
use. However, lack of.
c ire'ct
Soviet
particip.ation ' in the f i r ings and poor f i r ing tech ';;
niques by
North
Vietnamese crews could be a.major
factor .
10.
The
number
of. Soviet
mil i ta ry
personnel
in
North Vietnam not
engaged
in S M ac t iv i ty - - i . e .
those' concerned
with f l ight t ra in ing
communications,
and
admin:).strative
and logis t ic
support ac t iv i t i e s -
has
apparently
remained s ta t i c . Although
these
mil i
ta ry
perl?.onnel
possibly
number less than 500, there .
i s
simply
not
enough
evidence to do
more than. guess
how many
there
are at th is
point . No
Soviet t roop
t ransport
ships have cal led a t North Vietnam
p o r t s ~
lilnd
the
a i r t ransport act iv i ty between
the DRV and
the Soviet
Union
has
'not
been extensive enough
to
allow a
large
troop
movement.
11. In para l le l with the apparent
assumption
of
S M re spons ib i l i t i e s by the
North
Vietnamese, DRV
pi lo t s may
soon
take
an act ive
role in the
a i r d e ~
fense
of North Vietnam. They have
recent ly
begun
operat ing
from a
second
a i r f ie ld
located
a t Kep.
They
have great ly
extended the i r t ra ining a r e a possibly
' f lying
over the
Gulf 'of
Tonkin,
arid
have
scheduled
f l ights
as
dis tant
as
130
miles
southeast
of Hanoi.
All
types 'of f l igh t
t ra in ing in par t i cu la r
night
combat
t ra in ing
have become more extensive and
ad
vanced
l a t e l ~ w h i c h indicates
that
the
t ra in ing cycle.
for the'DRV
f ighter
pi lo t s
i s
nearly
complete. The
Soviet
f l igh t
inst ructors may
remain
to t ra in more
Nor.th
Vietnamese pi lo t s or re turn to
the
USSR. (Map
and
Chart) .
'
1
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PROBABLE
S M OPER TION L RE S IN NORTH VIETN M
""
101
I
CIlINA
"'''.
" Cossibly Two re S
; 1
i
:21· T·
. ....
::U
L
I
20
19
THA1
.
10
[
TOSK N
_L
'i
\>
Probable SAM
Operational Area
•
Confirmed
surface Io air missile
SAM) site
o Probable surface Io air missile
SAM) site
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SAM
LAUNOliNGS
VS US AIRCRAH AND
[HWNl S S ~ 1 0 T DOWN
APR
MAY
JUNE
JUL AUG SEPT OCT
LAUNCHES
I
0
0
0
5
6
29 28
AIRCRAFT DOWNED
0 0
0
1 2
1
1
DRONES
DOWNED
0 0
0
1 0
1
2
SAM
SITES
IDENTIFIED
1
2
1
3
11
4
1
TOTAL
68
5
4
32
l,
21 OCTOBER 965
._ •
___
' ._ ..
_: ' ; ~ _ .
~ 9 3 6 l ~
•
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