Southern Maryland Association of REALTORS®

Charles County Issues Survey

American Strategies Incorporated and Myers Research | Strategic Services, LLC designed and administered this telephone survey conducted by professional interviewers. The survey reached 400 adults, 18 years or older, who are registered to vote in Charles County. The survey was conducted March 15-18, 2012. The margin of error associated with these data at a 95 percent

confidence level is +/- 4.9 percent. The margin of error for subgroups is higher and varies.

Executive Summary

Slide 2

• Growth and development issues are top of mind. The problems associated with population growth – overdevelopment, transportation, construction, education – dominate the list of issues voters want their elected officials to do something about.

• Traffic the overwhelming concern. Nearly everyone expresses at least some concern over traffic and congestion. A solid majority (57 percent) are very concerned, underscoring the intensity associated with this issue.

• Residents conflicted between controls on growth and protecting private property rights. There is general agreement on the need for some controls on development (89 percent agree), and two-thirds of voters say home construction should be limited in outlying areas and encouraged in already developed areas. But at the same time most voters place a high priority on protecting private property rights and reject the idea that businesses and homes should be build closer together.

• Majority still call themselves “pro-growth” but “no-growth” not far behind. While most (51 percent) in the County still identify themselves as “pro-growth,” the problems of traffic congestion and other concerns resulting from overdevelopment leave four-in-ten voters identifying themselves as “no-growth.”

Executive Summary

Slide 3

• Most are open to idea of County buying development rights. On the surface, most (61 percent) have no problem with the idea of the Charles County government buying development rights from rural landowners. Just 32 percent are opposed.

• When pushed, voters prefer free market solutions. When forced to choose, a majority (54 percent) prefer to rely on free market solutions to preserve rural land. But 44 percent say buying development rights is a legitimate role for county government.

• In the end, neither approach is seen as a particularly effective way to preserve land. Neither the county purchase of development rights nor having developers put land into preservation is seen as very effective. Voters believe either approach might be somewhat or a little effective, but they judge each approach identically in terms of likely outcome.

• No debate on who should pay: Developers. Support for a county-paid offset plan collapses if voters are told that their taxes would increase or if county services would have to be cut. The only viable solution for voters is to have developers pay for the cost of the program.

Mood and Environment

Slide 4

Registered Republican (-20)

Registered Democrat (+27)

Total (+10)

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

33

58

49

52

31

39

% Right Direction % Wrong Direction

Slide 5

Voters Mostly Positive About Direction of Charles CountyRegistered Democrats Significantly More Upbeat than Registered Republicans Overall

Q.4 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Charles County are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

Slide 6

Q.5 And what would you say is the biggest issue facing Charles County that local elected officials should focus on?

Traffic and Development Issues Top the List of Concerns for Charles County Voters

Registered Democrats Most Likely to Say Traffic, Older Women Most Likely to Say Development

None/Nothing/Don’t Know/RefusedOther

Gas PricesGovernment Spending

Politics/GovernmentWrong/Low Income People

Keep Taxes DownCrime/Drugs

Economy/JobsEducation

Growth/DevelopmentTraffic/Transportation

0 5 10 15 20 25

96

22

34

810

1117

2424

% Mention

Most likely to say Traffic/Transportation:

Registered Democrats (30%) African Americans (29%)

Waldorf County Voters (29%)

Most likely to say Growth/Development: Older Women (36%)

Whites (31%)

Slide 7

Words Used to Describe Issue of Greatest ConcernIn word cloud, the larger the word the more frequently it was mentioned.

Q.5 And what would you say is the biggest issue facing Charles County that local elected officials should focus on?

Slide 8

Q.33 Thinking specifically about traffic and congestion in your area, how much of a concern is it to you - would you say you are very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not at all concerned about the issue of traffic and

congestion in your area?

A Majority of Voters Are Very Concerned About Traffic and Congestion

85% of Voters at Least Somewhat Concerned

9% Not too concerned

6% Not at all concerned

28% Somewhat concerned

57% Very concerned

85% Total Concerned

Slide 9

Electorate Largely Divided Over Which Traffic and Transportation Initiative Should Take Priority

Plurality of Voters Support Improving Transit Systems Over Expanding and Maintaining Roads, Highways, and Bridges

Q.34 Still thinking about traffic and transportation, which ONE of the

following should be the top priority for the Charles County government?

• Building and expanding new roads, highways, and bridges.

• Maintaining and repairing existing roads, highways, freeways, and

bridges.

• Expanding and improving bus, rail, and other mass transit.

34% Maintaining roads

40% Expanding mass transit

25% Building new roads

1% (Don’t Know/Refused)

Slide 10

Strong Plurality of Voters Support Reducing Traffic by Completing Waldorf Route 301 Bypass

Voters also supportive of starting construction on a new rail system

33% Start new rail system

46% Finish 301 Bypass

Most likely to say finishing the 301 Bypass:

Waldorf region voters (51%) South region voters (50%)

50 and over (50%)

15% Finish Cross County Connector

Most likely to say starting construction on a new rail system:

La Plata region voters (38%) Registered Democrats (37%)

6% DK/Ref

Q.35 Thinking ahead five years, which ONE of the following specific proposals is the best solution to reducing traffic in your area:

• Finishing the Waldorf Route 301 Bypass.

• Finishing the Cross County Connector.

• Starting construction on a new mass transit rail system.

Voters Slightly More Likely to View County Taxes as “About Right” When Compared to State Taxes

Slide 11

Too High About Right Too Low0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

50%45%

1% Too High About Right Too Low0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

43%

51%

2%

Maryland Tax Rates Charles County Tax Rates

Q.6/7 Thinking about taxes and the services you receive from your state government/the Charles County government, would you say the taxes and fees you pay in Maryland/to the county are too high, too low, or about right?

Slide 12

Q.8 And compared to other counties in Maryland, would you say that property taxes in Charles County are higher, lower or about the same?

Few Voters Think Charles County Tax Burden is Higher than Other Counties

22% Higher

32% Lower

27% About the same

19% DK/Ref

Traffic Dominates List of Concerns; Property Rights Important, But Many Worry about Protecting Open Space and Farms

Lack of community playgrounds or parks

The length of your commute

The lack of public transportation, like rail and bus

Protecting land for farms and agriculture

Protecting open space, like fields and forests

The cost of housing

Protecting private property owners' rights

The increase in traffic and congestion on our roads

5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5

5.2

5.7

6.1

6.4

6.6

6.7

7.4

8.4

Mean on 1-10 Scale

% Interest 10

25

Q.9 Now I would like to read a list of issues facing Charles County as a result of population growth and development. Using a scale of 1 to 10, where a 1 means that issue does not concern you at all at this time, and 10 means that issue concerns you

the most at this time, please rate each of the following.

Slide 13

28

20

22

50

37

25

13

Slide 14

Concern Over Open Space and Farmland Higher Among Whites and Those Who Initially Favor Development Rights Proposal

% Interest 10

Traffic and Congestion

Property Rights Open Space Land for

Farms

Total 50% 37% 22% 20%

White 46% 38% 31% 26%

African American 56% 35% 12% 12%

Men 39% 36% 22% 20%

Women 59% 37% 22% 20%

Favor Proposition 51% 32% 26% 21%

Oppose Proposition 49% 43% 13% 14%

Growth and Development /Mitigation Proposal

Slide 15

Businesses and homes should be built closer together to shorten commutes and limit traffic congestion.

New home construction should be limited in outlying areas and encouraged in already developed areas.

Private property owners should be able to develop their land as they see fit.

We need some controls on development, or our traffic and sprawl problems will just keep getting worse.

0 20 40 60 80 100

36% Strongly Disagree

34% StronglyAgree

45% StronglyAgree

70% Strongly Agree

63% TotalDisagree

67% TotalAgree

71% TotalAgree

89% TotalAgree

Q.17-20 Still thinking about growth and development in Charles County, many people have different opinions on this subject. I am going to read you some statements about growth and development and after I read each one, please tell me whether you agree

or disagree with the statement.

Slide 16

Voters Agree on Need for Controls on Development, But Conflicted on What that Means in Practice

White WomenWhite Men

African American WomenAfrican American Men

WhiteAfrican American

WomenMen

Total

80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80

354358

79

3967

4558

51

5845

3518

5227

4633

40

% Pro-Growth % No-Growth

Slide 17

Significant Gender and Race Gaps in Support for Pro-Growth Land Use and Development Policies

Men and African Americans Most Supportive of Pro-Growth Policies

Q.21 And do you consider yourself to be more PRO-growth or NO-growth on land use and development issues?

6-in-10 Initially Favor County Directly Buying Development Rights

But Just A Third of Voters Strongly Favor Proposal

Favor Oppose Don't Know/Refused0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

32% Strongly Favor21% Strongly

Oppose7%

61% Total Favor

32% Total Oppose

Q.22 Still thinking about the issue of growth and development, as you may

know the Charles County Commission is considering a proposal to allow the Charles County government to buy

development rights from rural land-owners in order to preserve the land for

agricultural use or open space.

Just based on what you know, do you favor or oppose this proposal to allow the

Charles County government to buy development rights from rural land-

owners in order to preserve rural land?

Slide 18

Non-College Educated (+13)College Educated (+45)

Older Women (+14)Older Men (+39)

Women (+22)Men (+36)

Registered Republican (-1)Registered Democrat (+43)

Total (+28)

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

5369

5467

5765

4768

61

4024

4028

3529

4824

32

% Favor Proposal % Oppose Proposal

Slide 19

Older Men, Registered Democrats, and College-Educated Voters Most Supportive of the Proposal

Q.22 …Just based on what you know, do you favor or oppose this proposal to allow the Charles County government to buy development rights from rural land-owners in order to preserve rural land?

When Arguments Are Played Out, Majority Favor Free Market Approach to Land Preservation

Dramatic Swing Reveals High Volatility in Electorate

Government Role Free Market0

10

20

30

40

50

60

17% Much Closer

29% Much Closer

44% Total Closer

54% Total Closer

Slide 20

25% of voters overall favor proposal BUT

take free market view

Q.23 Tell me whether the first statement or the second statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.• We need to find ways to protect rural land, the quality of life and our rural heritage in Charles County. Buying

development rights is a legitimate role for the county government. • Protecting rural land is important, but we need policies that rely on the free market to preserve land. County

government should not use taxpayer dollars to buy development rights.

Dramatic Shift Towards Free Market Approach Largely Reflected Across Countywide Electorate

Registered Democrats, Older Women Most Volatile Voting Blocs

Slide 21

Non-College Educated (-25)College Educated (+7)

Older Women (-29)Older Men (+17)

Women (-17)Men (-2)

Registered Republican (-34)Registered Democrat (+1)

Total (-10)

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 8036

53

3358

4049

3250

44

6146

6341

5751

6648

54

% Government Role % Free Market

% Shift from Proposal Position

-38

-42

-33

-38

-39

-22

-43

-38

-38

Slide 22

When Tested on Their Own, Neither Approach to Preserving Rural Land is Viewed as Particularly Effective

Series1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

14

17

60

61

% Very Effective % Very/Somewhat Effective

Have real estate developers offset the impact of their development in urban and suburban parts of the County by paying for the cost of

putting rural lands into preservation.

Have County government directly pay for the cost of putting rural lands into preservation

Q.24 Now I going to read you a couple of approaches for preserving land in rural Charles County. Please tell me whether you think each approach would be very effective, somewhat effective, a little effective, or not at all effective in preserving rural land.

But When Asked to Choose, Voters Prefer DeveloperApproach by a Near-2-1 Ratio

Low Intensity Scores Suggest Much of Electorate Remains Undecided

Developers Pay County Pay Directly0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

35% Much Prefer

13% Much Prefer

60% Total Prefer

32% Total Closer

Slide 23

Q.26 …Which ONE of these two approaches do you prefer for preserving

rural land in Charles County?

• Have real estate developers offset the impact of their development in urban and suburban parts of the County by paying for the cost of putting rural

lands into preservation.

• Have the County government directly pay for the cost of putting rural lands

into preservation.

Slide 24

After Given Information on Cost of Proposal, Voters Significantly Less Supportive of It

Three Quarters of Voters Less Likely to Support Proposal

8% Much More Likely

52% Much Less Likely

20% Somewhat Less Likely

4% (Not sure/Don’t know/Refused)

Q.27 Let me tell you a little more about the proposal we've been talking about.

The proposal to buy development rights and preserve rural land in Charles County

would cost approximately 4.6 million dollars each year for the next twenty

years. The money for the program is not in the current County budget and would have

to come from cuts in other programs, an increase in property taxes or from new fees

on individuals or businesses.

Does that make you more or less likely to support the proposal to allow Charles

County to buy development rights in order to preserve land in rural Charles County?

4% (No Difference)

11% Somewhat More Likely

Fees on Developers Only Palatable Revenue Source

Increase property taxes

Cut funding from other programs

Cut funding from programs, like education and public safety

Increase fees paid by small busi-

nesses

Increase fees paid by developers

0

20

40

60

80

100

1329

724

838666

9374

15

Pct Favor Pct Oppose

Q.28-32 I am going to read you some specific recommendations for how to pay for this proposal. Regardless of how you feel about the overall proposal, please tell me whether you favor or oppose each of the following as a way to pay for it.

Slide 25