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Southern Company Overview March 2015

Southern Company Overview March 2015s2.q4cdn.com/471677839/files/desktop/03-2015...March 2015. Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in

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Page 1: Southern Company Overview March 2015s2.q4cdn.com/471677839/files/desktop/03-2015...March 2015. Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in

Southern Company Overview

March 2015

Page 2: Southern Company Overview March 2015s2.q4cdn.com/471677839/files/desktop/03-2015...March 2015. Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking StatementsCertain information contained in this presentation is forward‐looking information based on current expectations and plans that involve risks and uncertainties. Forward‐looking information includes, among other things, statements concerning projected costs and schedules for the completion and start-up of ongoing construction projects, including estimated costs, expected impact to customers, earnings per share guidance, dividend growth, the economic outlook, expected sales growth, projected capital expenditures, projected financing plans and future generation fleet. Southern Company cautions that there are certain factors that can cause actual results to differ materially from the forward‐looking information that has been provided. The reader is cautioned not to put undue reliance on this forward‐looking information, which is not a guarantee of future performance and is subject to a number of uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside the control of Southern Company; accordingly, there can be no assurance that such suggested results will be realized. The following factors, in addition to those discussed in Southern Company’s Annual Report on Form 10‐K for the year ended December 31, 2014, and subsequent securities filings, could cause actual results to differ materially from management expectations as suggested by such forward‐looking information: the impact of recent and future federal and state regulatory changes, including legislative and regulatory initiatives regarding deregulation and restructuring of the electric utility industry, environmental laws including regulation of water, coal combustion residuals, and emissions of sulfur, nitrogen, carbon dioxide, soot, particulate matter, hazardous air pollutants, including mercury, and other substances, and also changes in tax and other laws and regulations to which Southern Company and its subsidiaries are subject, as well as changes in application of existing laws and regulations; current and future litigation, regulatory investigations, proceedings, or inquiries, including pending Environmental Protection Agency civil actions against certain Southern Company subsidiaries, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission matters, and Internal Revenue Service and state tax audits; the effects, extent, and timing of the entry of additional competition in the markets in which Southern Company’s subsidiaries operate; variations in demand for electricity, including those relating to weather, the general economy and recovery from the last recession, population and business growth (and declines), the effects of energy conservation and efficiency measures, including from the development and deployment of alternative energy sources such as self‐generation and distributed generation technologies, and any potential economic impacts resulting from federal fiscal decisions; available sources and costs of fuels; effects of inflation; the ability to control costs and avoid cost overruns during the development and construction of facilities, which include the development and construction of generating facilities with designs that have not been finalized or previously constructed, including changes in labor costs and productivity, adverse weather conditions, shortages and inconsistent quality of equipment, materials, and labor, contractor or supplier delay, non‐performance under construction or other agreements, operational readiness, including specialized operator training and required site safety programs, unforeseen engineering or design problems, start‐up activities (including major equipment failure and system integration), and/or operational performance (including additional costs to satisfy any operational parameters ultimately adopted by any Public Service Commission (“PSC”)); the ability to construct facilities in accordance with the requirements of permits and licenses, to satisfy any operational and environmental performance standards, including any PSC requirements and the requirements of tax credits and other incentives, and to integrate facilities into the Southern Company system upon completion of construction; investment performance of Southern Company’s employee and retiree benefit plans and the Southern Company system’s nuclear decommissioning trust funds; advances in technology; state and federal rate regulations and the impact of pending and future rate cases and negotiations, including rate actions relating to fuel and other cost recovery mechanisms; legal proceedings and regulatory approvals and actions related to the Plant Vogtle expansion, including Georgia PSC approvals and Nuclear Regulatory Commission actions and related legal proceedings involving the commercial parties; actions related to cost recovery for the integrated coal gasification combined cycle facility under construction in Kemper County, Mississippi (“Kemper IGCC”), including actions relating to proposed securitization, Mississippi PSC approval of a rate recovery plan, including the ability to complete the proposed sale of an interest in the Kemper IGCC to South Mississippi Electric Power Association, the ability to utilize bonus depreciation, which currently requires that assets be placed in service in 2015, and satisfaction of requirements to utilize investment tax credits and grants; Mississippi PSC review of the prudence of Kemper IGCC costs; the ultimate outcome and impact of the February 2015 decision of the Mississippi Supreme Court and any further legal or regulatory proceedings regarding any settlement agreement between Mississippi Power Company and the Mississippi PSC, the March 2013 rate order regarding retail rate increases, or the State of Mississippi legislation designed to enhance the Mississippi PSC’s authority to facilitate development and construction of baseload generation in the State of Mississippi; the ability to successfully operate the electric utilities’ generating, transmission, and distribution facilities, and the successful performance of necessary corporate functions; the inherent risks involved in operating and constructing nuclear generating facilities, including environmental, health, regulatory, natural disaster, terrorism, and financial risks; the performance of projects undertaken by the non‐utility businesses and the success of efforts to invest in and develop new opportunities; internal restructuring or other restructuring options that may be pursued; potential business strategies, including acquisitions or dispositions of assets or businesses, which cannot be assured to be completed or beneficial to Southern Company or its subsidiaries; the ability of counterparties of Southern Company and its subsidiaries to make payments as and when due and to perform as required; the ability to obtain new short‐ and long‐term contracts with wholesale customers; the direct or indirect effect on the Southern Company system’s business resulting from cyber intrusion or terrorist incidents and the threat of terrorist incidents; interest rate fluctuations and financial market conditions and the results of financing efforts; changes in Southern Company’s or any of its subsidiaries’ credit ratings, including impacts on interest rates, access to capital markets, and collateral requirements; the impacts of any sovereign financial issues, including impacts on interest rates, access to capital markets, impacts on currency exchange rates, counterparty performance, and the economy in general, as well as potential impacts on the benefits of the U.S. Department of Energy loan guarantees; the ability of Southern Company and its subsidiaries to obtain additional generating capacity at competitive prices; catastrophic events such as fires, earthquakes, explosions, floods, hurricanes and other storms, droughts, pandemic health events such as influenzas, or other similar occurrences; the direct or indirect effects on the Southern Company system’s business resulting from incidents affecting the U.S. electric grid or operation of generating resources; and the effect of accounting pronouncements issued periodically by standard setting bodies. Southern Company expressly disclaims any obligation to update any forward‐looking information.

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Investor Relations Contact Info• Dan Tucker

Vice President, Investor Relations & Financial [email protected]

• Jimmy StewartManager, Investor [email protected]

Main website: www.southerncompany.com

IR website: http://investor.southerncompany.com

CSR website: http://southerncompany.com/what-doing/corporate-responsibility

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Environmental ReportsCarbon Disclosure ReportThis update for 2014 details actions the Southern Company system is taking on greenhouse gas emissions and incorporates information the company previously submitted to the Carbon Disclosure Project.http://www.southerncompany.com/what-doing/pdf/Carbon_Disclosure_Report_2014_final.pdf

Water Action ReportA report on how the Southern Company system manages water resources in the production of electricity. http://www.southerncompany.com/what-doing/pdf/water_action_report_2014_final.pdf

Coal Combustion ByproductsA report on the system's production and safe management of coal combustion byproducts.http://www.southerncompany.com/what-doing/pdf/coal_Combustion_Byproducts_2014_final.pdf

Renewableshttp://www.southerncompany.com/what-doing/energy-innovation/smart-energy/smart-power/renewables.cshtml

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Southern Company – A Solid Foundation

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• >90% of earnings from our regulated subsidiaries

• Forward-looking, constructive regulatory frameworks

• Industry leading operations• Diverse, growing Southeast

economy and customer base

• Top 4 in annual benchmark survey• EFOR at industry leading levels• All time records for T&D metrics• APC rated “America’s most-trusted

residential electric utility”

2014

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12th Semi-Annual Vogtle Construction Monitoring ReportRequests in filing• Verify and approve $169M of expenditures for the period July 1, 2014 – December 31, 2014

(Cumulative capital costs through this reporting period total approximately $2.96B)• Amend the certificate to reflect the Total Construction and Capital cost of $5.045B

6

Original Capital Forecast (millions) $4,418

Δ through VCM 11 Δ in VCM 12Mandated Regulatory Changesand Enhanced Compliance Activities 46 29 75

Taxes and Fees 57 52 109Construction Costs 112 17 129Owners Quality and Compliance 196 71 267Operational Readiness 95 49 144Transmission 19 0 19Legal / Environmental Permit / Misc. 13 28 41Offsets (including escalation) (157) 0 (157)Change from Original Certification $381 $246 $627Capital Forecast in VCM 12 $5,045

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Vogtle Construction Site as of January 21, 2015

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• Priorities are safety and quality

• 100% fixed/firm EPC contract

• Significant front-end engineering during NRC design certification

• PWR is not new technology(new safety features for AP1000)

• Significant oversight(SNC, NRC, GPSC, co-owners)

• Projected impact to customer rates is between 6% - 8% with over 4% already in rates

• Statutory recovery of all prudently incurred costs(O.C.G.A. § 46-3A-7)

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Progress Continued CA20 module fabrication Continued 500kV switchyard upgrades Continued Nuclear Island wall placements Began Cooling Tower

Near term• Set CA04• Set CB65 and CB66• Continue Nuclear Island wall placements

On the horizon• Concrete in CVBH1 to EL 76 ft 6 in.• Concrete under CVBH1 to EL 82 ft 6 in.

Unit 3 Unit 4

8

Progress Continued CA01 module assembly Continued Nuclear Island wall placements Set CA05 Began Auxiliary Building metal decking installation Completed Cooling TowerNear term• Concrete inside CVBH1 to EL 83 ft• Concrete under CVBH1 to EL 90 ft 6 in.• Continue Auxiliary Building metal decking installation

On the horizon• Continue Auxiliary Building metal decking installation • Shield Building panel installation• Concrete under CVBH1 to EL 100 ft

1. CVBH: containment vessel bottom head

Vogtle Construction Update

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Vogtle Units 3&4 Nuclear Island Activity

9

Current View

Near Term

Unit 3 Unit 4

Unit 3 Unit 4

Formwork

Concrete Placed

Formwork

Concrete Placed

Concrete inside CVBH

CA04

CB65

CA05

CA04CB65

Lower Ring

Metal

Decking

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• Combined Cycle in serviceAugust 2014

• Expected in-service date forremainder is 1st half 2016

• 3 parallel paths toward firstsyngas production in Q3

–Operational training–Control systems validation–Start-up & check-out

• Next major milestone:Gasifier First Fire

• Continuing regulatory discussions

Kemper Project Update

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Kemper IGCC – Combined Cycle

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Kemper County IGCC

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• First of a kind technology developed by SO and KBR

• Carbon footprint equivalent to a combined cycle natural gas unit– 65% CO2 capture for enhanced oil

recovery (EOR)

• Affordable, abundant, low-rankcoal resource– Mine mouth lignite coal

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air/O2steam

coal

syngas

Presalter Cyclone

Mixing Zone

Riser

Standpipe Cyclone

Standpipe

J-leg

Startup Burner

Seal Leg

syngas

ash

air/O2steam

coal

syngas

Presalter Cyclone

Mixing Zone

Riser

Standpipe Cyclone

Standpipe

J-leg

Startup Burner

Seal Leg

syngas

ash

TRIGTM Attributes / Advantages

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• Simple, well established design

• Either air- or oxygen-blown

• High reliability design

• Lower fuel costs

• Excellent environmental performance

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Quality Southern Power Assets9,039 MWs of Capacity

Harris 1&2CCs – 1,319 MW

Franklin 1, 2, & 3 CCs ‐ 1,858 MW 

AddisonCTs – 669 MW 

Stanton A CC428 MW

Oleander 1‐5CTs – 791 MW

Dahlberg 1‐10CTs – 756 MW 

Rowan531 MW CC455 MW CT

Wansley 6&7CCs – 1,073 MW

Adobe (CA)Solar – 18 MW

Nacogdoches (TX)Biomass – 100 MW

Cleveland CTs – 720 MW

GranvilleSolar – 2 MW

Spectrum (NV)Solar – 27 MW

Campo Verde (CA)Solar – 125 MW

Cimarron (NM)Solar – 27 MW

Apex (NV)Solar – 18 MW

Solargen2 (CA)Solar – 77 MW

Macho Springs (NM)Solar – 45 MW

Business Model• Build or buy assets supported by long‐term contracts with credit‐worthy counterparties• Develop long‐term relationships / partnerships that leverage our operational excellence• Minimize fuel and transmission risk• Commitment to financial integrity

Newly Announced Projects• 131 MW Solar – Taylor County (GA EMCs) 4Q 2016 COD• 80 MW Solar – Decatur Parkway and 19 MW Solar  ‐ Decatur County 4Q2015 COD

Breakdown by Fuel (in service)

Fuel Type MW % of Total

Nat. Gas 8,600 95%Biomass 100 1%Solar 339 4%Total 9,039 100%Note: Capacity reflects Southern Power’s equity ownership interest based on PPA offtake

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Southern Power’s Solar Portfolio

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Asset Size SPCOwnership Location PPA Term Offtaker Technology COD Date

Operational Assets

SolarGen2 150 MW 77 MW Imperial Co, CA 25 yr SDG&EFirst Solar and

Canadian Solar Thin Film(FS Trackers)

Nov 2014

Macho Springs 50 MW 45 MW Luna Co, NM 20 yr El Paso Electric First Solar Thin Film(FS Trackers) May 2014

Adobe 20 MW 18 MW Kern Co, CA 20 yr SCE MEMC Crystalline(Gestamp Trackers) May 2014

Campo Verde 139 MW 125 MW Imperial Co, CA 20 yr SDG&E First Solar Thin Film(Fixed) Oct 2013

Spectrum 30 MW 27 MW Las Vegas, NV 25 yr NVE MEMC Crystalline(ATI Trackers) Sep 2013

Granville 3 MW 2 MW Oxford, NC 20 yr Duke Energy MEMC Crystalline(ATI Trackers) Oct 2012

Apex 20 MW 18 MW Las Vegas, NV 25 yr NVE Trina Crystalline(ATI Trackers) Jul 2012

Cimarron 30 MW 27 MW Springer, NM 20 yr Tri State First Solar Thin Film(Fixed) Nov 2010

Projects Under Development

GA EMCs 131 MW 131 MW Taylor Co, Ga 25 yr Georgia Power First Solar Thin Film(FS Trackers) 2016

Decatur Parkway 80 MW 80 MW Bainbridge, GA 25 yr Georgia Power First Solar Thin Film(FS Trackers) 2015/2016

Decatur County 19 MW 19 MW Bainbridge, GA 20 yr Georgia Power Crystalline 2015/2016

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Renewables

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Southern Power owns ~ 570MW of utility scale solar operating or under development, mainly in the Southwest and Georgia

Solar initiatives in Georgia projected to provide~900 MW of solar capacity to Georgia Power by 2016

Alabama Power, Georgia Power and Gulf Power combined have ~800 MW of PPAs from wind farms in Oklahoma and Kansas

Southern Power owns 100MW Biomass plant in Nacogdoches, TX – one of the largest in North America

Gulf Power working with HelioSage Energy to potentially develop ~120 MWs of solar generation at military facilities in Pensacola

Southern Power currently owns, manages or is constructing 11 solar facilities totaling over 670 MWs of solar energy capacity in California, Georgia, Nevada, New Mexico and North Carolina. Southern Power’s ownership is more than 570 MWs

Southern Power entered into an agreement to acquire the 299MW Kay wind facility from Apex Clean Energy. The acquisition is expected to close in the fourth quarter 2015.

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2014 Retail Sales Growth vs. Prior Year

As Reported Weather Normal

Residential 5.5% 0.0%Commercial 1.3% -0.4%Industrial 3.3% 3.3%Total Retail Sales 3.3% 0.9%

7 Quarters of Continued Industrial Sales Growth Industrial Sales Growth % vs. Prior Year

Quarter-to-date

-0.2% -0.2%-0.8% -0.3%2.3% 2.3%0.5% 0.6%

Year-to-dateAs Reported Weather Normal

0.6%

2.6%

4.8%

2.8% 3.0%

4.8%

2.3%

2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14

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Expected 2015 Sales Growth

GDP projected growth of around 3.0%

Industrial activity will continue to improve, but constrained by strengthening dollar and low oil prices

Improving housing market and consumer spending could offset headwinds

Global economy expected to remain sluggish

Economic Roundtable

2015 Outlook

1.0%

1.4%

1.7%

1.3%

Residential Commercial Industrial Total Retail Sales

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1919

$16.6B Capital Expenditure Forecast for 2015 to 2017'15-'17

So Power Placeholdersfor Growth $1.9B

Southern Power Base $1.2B

Environmental $2.1B

New Generation $2.6B

Transmission $1.9B

Distribution $2.4B

Generation Maintenance $2.5BNuclear Fuel $0.8BOther $1.0B

Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding.Includes amounts for which Mississippi Power will not seek recovery above the $2.88B Kemper IGCC cost cap, net of DOE grants and cost cap exceptions, of $0.8B & $0.1B in 2015 and 2016, respectively. 2016 includes $0.6B of SMEPA’s expected 15% ownership share.Southern Power Base includes $0.7B & $0.2B of identified growth projects in 2015 & 2016, respectively.

Financing Plan

• No new equity needs

• DOE Loan drawstotaling $1.85B

• Industry leading financial integrity

Traditional OpCo’s

$13.4B

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2015 – 2017 CapEx Forecast – Functional

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Total$billions 2015 2016 2017 '15-'17

New Generation $1.3 $0.9 $0.4 $2.6Environmental Compliance $1.0 $0.5 $0.6 $2.1Generation Maintenance $1.0 $0.8 $0.8 $2.5

Transmission Growth 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4Transmission Maintenance 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.3

Total Transmission $0.6 $0.5 $0.6 $1.7Distribution Growth 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.5Distribution Maintenance 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.1

Total Distribution $0.9 $0.9 $0.9 $2.6Nuclear Fuel $0.3 $0.2 $0.3 $0.8General $0.3 $0.3 $0.4 $1.0

Traditional OpCo Total $5.3 $4.1 $3.9 $13.4

Southern Power Base $0.8 $0.3 $0.1 $1.2Southern Power Expansion $0.6 $1.0 $0.3 $1.9

Total Consolidated $6.7 $5.4 $4.3 $16.5

Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding.Includes amounts for which Mississippi Power will not seek recovery above the $2.88B Kemper IGCC cost cap, net of DOE grants and cost cap exceptions, of $0.8B & $0.1B in 2015 and 2016, respectively. 2016 includes $0.6B of SMEPA’s expected 15% ownership share.Southern Power Base includes $0.7B & $0.2B of identified growth projects in 2015 & 2016, respectively.

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2015 – 2017 CapEx Forecast – Company

21

Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding.Includes amounts for which Mississippi Power will not seek recovery above the $2.88B Kemper IGCC cost cap, net of DOE grants and cost cap exceptions, of $0.8B & $0.1B in 2015 and 2016, respectively. 2016 includes $0.6B of SMEPA’s expected 15% ownership share.Southern Power Base includes $0.7B & $0.2B of identified growth projects in 2015 & 2016, respectively.

Total$billions 2015 2016 2017 '15-'17

Alabama 1.5 1.1 1.4 4.0Georgia 2.4 2.4 2.1 6.9Gulf 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.7Mississippi 1.0 0.3 0.2 1.6Other Subsidiaries 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2Traditional OpCo Total $5.3 $4.1 $3.9 $13.4

Southern Power 1.4 1.3 0.4 3.1

Total Capex $6.7 $5.4 $4.3 $16.5

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($ in millions) 2015 2016 2017 2015 - 2017

Georgia DOE Loan 1,000$ 550$ 300$ 1,850$ Mississippi Securitization - - 1,000 1,000Mississippi Bank Debt 1,250 - - 1,250Capital MarketsAlabama 700$ 300$ 550$ 1,550$ Georgia 600 1,000 400 2,000Gulf - 125 100 225Mississippi - - 500 500Southern Power (1) 1,000 250 - 1,250Holding Company (2) 750 600 500 1,850Total Capital Markets 3,050$ 2,275$ 2,050$ 7,375$

Total Debt Issuances 5,300$ 2,825$ 3,350$ 11,475$

Common Equity Needs -$ -$ -$ -$

(1) Includes $500M and $250M in 2015 and 2016, respectively, for potential Southern Power growth projects(2) Includes $350M in 2015 for potential Southern Power growth projects

2015 – 2017 Financing Plan

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Earnings Per Share Guidance1

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$2.88

$2.76

2015$2.80

2014

$2.72

2014 results at top of range*

*Excludes 2014 EPS impact of -59¢ estimated probable loss relating to construction of the Kemper IGCC and -02¢ associated with the 2015 Mississippi Supreme Court decision. GAAP EPS was $2.19 for 20141 Adjusted earnings per share guidance was provided during the Company’s earnings call on February 4, 2015 and speaks only as of that date

Q1 2015 Estimate: $0.55

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Dividend Growth Objectives*

* Future dividend increases are subject to board of directors’ approval

Goal of regular, predictable, and sustainable EPS growth is supportive of a growing dividend

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A Diverse Generation Fleet Benefits our Customers

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Total Gas2014: 45%2020: 52%

Resources(GWs of Capacity)

What We’ve Used(GWHs of Energy)

Future Flexibility(Depends on Fuel Prices)

CTs

CCs

Non-PRBCoal

PRB Coal

32.8GW 50.0GW

Gas Gas

CoalCoal

NuclearNuclear

Hydro/Renew

Converted Gas

48.1GW

Nuclear

Total Coal2014: 40%2020: 30%

Low Gas High Gas

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Generation Portfolio Diversity

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Capacity Factors Q4 YTD2013 2014 2013 2014

Coal - PRB 79% 68% 74% 73%

Coal - Non-PRB 25% 21% 30% 44%

Gas - Combined Cycle 65% 71% 66% 64%

Energy Mix Q4 YTD2013 2014 2013 2014

Natural Gas 42% 49% 41% 40%

Coal 37% 31% 38% 40%

Nuclear 17% 16% 16% 16%

Hydro/Other 4% 4% 5% 4%