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both in troubled Guinea Bissau and inthe wider region. ECOWAS ParliamentSpeaker Ike Ekweremadu, called thecoup ‘‘an affront on democratic gover-nance’’.He said the coup, which comeson the heels of a similar attempt inMali (p. 19183) was capable of derail-ing democratic gains in the West Afri-can sub-region.
He said, ‘‘What is going on in Guinea-Bissau is highly condemnable, unjustifi-able, and a slight on the collective willof the peoples of West Africa to liveand prosper under democratic gover-nance, constitutionalism, and rule oflaw’’. (This Day website, Lagos 15 ⁄ 4)
Other commentators looked at the con-nections between the army, narco-trafficand impunity. Former UN representa-tive and Guinea Bissau expert DavidStephen, writing in African Arguments(23 ⁄ 4) commented that ‘‘Prime Minis-ter Gomes had failed, notably, to endyears of mutual suspicion between him
and the army, or to reach out to theBalantes, the largest single ethnicgroup, strong in the army and who seeKumba Yala as their leader. He hadalso let rumours about the role of theAngolan military mission (MISSANG)get out of hand.’’
Stephen argued that ‘‘the non-accep-tance of the election results by KumbaYala and his colleagues, and the accu-sations against Angola, provided asmokescreen for an interventiondesigned to perpetuate a situation ofconstitutional confusion in which themilitary were largely unaccountable,and in which criminality, especiallyregarding narco-traffic, could proceedunhindered. Another key aim of thecoup was to ensure that the assassina-tions and killings of recent years –three of them of former Chiefs of Staffof the Armed Forces – remain unpun-ished and uninvestigated.’’ (AfricanArguments 23 ⁄ 4)
Africa Confidential said the coupappears to be the work of the sameofficers who were involved in previousseizures of power and drug smuggling.It said no Guineans doubted that Indjaiis behind the coup, despite his effortsto stay in the background. The officialline of the coup leaders is that theywere defending the army against immi-nent attack by Missang, backed by theAU, Ghana and Brazil. The Commandclaims to have in its possession a secretdocument signed by Pereira and Gomesoutlining such a plot. Many Guineansbelieve this accusation, which reducespublic sympathy for Gomes, eventhough most are sick of the military’scontinual seizures of power.
The chief objective of the army is toresist army reform and scotch anyefforts to curtail its involvement in thedrugs trade. (Africa Confidential 27 ⁄ 4)Presidential election first round p. 19195
POLITICALRELATIONS
SOUTH SUDAN –SUDAN
State of Emergency
Fighting continues in border areasand raises fears of a wider war.
As Sudan and South Sudan sink deeperinto full-scale conflict and hostile rheto-ric, Sudanese President Omar Hassanal-Bashir on April 29th declared a stateof emergency in some cities of threestates neighbouring South Sudan –namely South Kordofan, Sennar andWhite Nile.
The presidential decree came afterheavy clashes between the Sudaneseand south Sudanese armies over Heglig,reports Sudan Tribune (29 ⁄ 4).The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) arealso battling the combatants of therebel Sudan People’s Liberation Move-ment - ⁄Army-North (SPLM ⁄A-N) andits allies from Darfur rebel groupsmainly in South Kordofan and someparts of the Blue Nile state.
The state of emergency is alreadyimposed in other states borderingSouth Sudan including Blue Nile. Dueto the rebellion in Darfur, a state of
emergency has been in place in the wes-tern half of the boundaries since 2003.
The measure suspends the constitutionand imposes a trade embargo againstthe South.
Nationalist feeling has intensified inSudan after South Sudan occupied thenorth’s main Heglig oil field, part ofSouth Kordofan state, on April 10thfor 10 days, a move which coincidedwith Sudanese air strikes against theSouth in Unity state. It was the mostserious fighting since the South’s inde-pendence and raised fears of a widerwar. Elsewhere in South Kordofan,SPLM-N rebels besieged the town ofTalodi into early April and, after a lull,fighting in the area intensified later inthe month. Both sides said there hadbeen renewed fighting around the stra-tegic town of Talodi, southeast ofUmm Durain.
The seizure of Heglig ratchets upJuba’s confrontation with Khartoum’sNational Congress Party (NCP) regime,which also faces growing pressure fromits opponents in the North, accordingto Africa Confidential (13 ⁄ 4). Juba’sInformation Minister and Spokesman,Barnaba Marial Benjamin Bil, insistedthat taking Heglig was in self-defenceafter Khartoum’s forces had launched aground attack from the town on April9th. Juba’s more assertive strategyshows its support for its former com-rades in the SPLM ⁄A-N and theirvision for change – ending NCP rule.
The African Union (AU) and UnitedNations (UN) Security Council rapidlyrequested the Sudan People’s Libera-tion Army (SPLA) to withdraw fromHeglig.
A surging number of hungry refugeesare fleeing fighting in Sudan wheresome are reduced to foraging in thewild, the United Nations (UN) said onApril 30th, amid new allegations ofSudanese air strikes, � AFP reported(30 ⁄ 4). In South Kordofan, whereinsurgents deny being backed by SouthSudan, a Sudanese air raid killed amother and two children, the SPLM-Nsaid.
Air raids also continued over the week-end against South Sudanese frontlinepositions, the South Sudanese armysaid, despite an AU order the previousweek that the two nations cease borderhostilities within 48 hours. Sudandenied bombing in South Kordofan orSouth Sudan.
Sudan declared on April 20th that itstroops had forced the Southern soldiersout of Heglig, but the South said itwithdrew of its own accord in line withinternational calls.
During the Heglig occupation, Bashirthreatened to overthrow South Sudan’s‘‘insect’’ government.
Sudanese cross-border air raids thatcontinued after the end of the Hegligoccupation drew swift internationalcondemnation. But Khartoum says theSouth’s continued support for rebelsinside Sudan undermines the north’sstability. South Sudan also accuses thenorth of backing rebels on its territory,an allegation the north denies.
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‘‘There has been fighting in Wedakona,Upper Nile state, with Khartoum sup-ported militias’’, Southern armyspokesman Philip Aguer told � AFP,adding that the combat continued earlyon the 30th. He said that over theweekend Sudanese warplanes droppedfour bombs near a forward position ofthe South’s army in Unity state’s Pa-nakuach, about 20km from Heglig.
The Independent, London reported(19 ⁄ 4) AU mediator Thabo Mbeki asurging the UN Security Council to actto stop the fighting, warning that thesides are locked in a ‘‘logic of war’’with hardliners increasingly in control.
Sudan set four conditions on the 20thfor ‘‘normal’’ relations with SouthSudan. It demanded that the Southerngovernment in Juba ‘‘approve and rec-ognise’’ existing agreements and memo-randa on security, including a Februarynon-aggression pact signed by theirrespective intelligence chiefs. The For-eign ministry also demanded that theSouth recognise the borders whichexisted at Sudan’s independence fromBritain and Egypt in 1956. It furthercalled for an end to ‘‘all aggression’’ onSudanese territory, a removal of South-ern troops allegedly in Sudan, and anend to support for ethnic rebels fightingKhartoum in South Kordofan and BlueNile states. Juba has denied such sup-port. Lastly, the ministry asked Juba tostop ‘‘supporting and hosting’’ rebelgroups from the Darfur region whorefused to sign a peace deal with thegovernment.
Sudan on the 28th expressed confidencein the AU but rejected Security Councilinvolvement in efforts to end theclashes. The Security Council hasstarted talks on a resolution that couldallow sanctions against Sudan andSouth Sudan if they do not end theirfighting. Russia, a veto-wielding mem-ber of the Security Council, signalledits agreement on the 30th with the US-backed resolution, after Foreign Minis-ter Sergei Lavrov met his Sudanesecounterpart Ali Karti in Moscow.
All or Nothing
Khartoum is fighting on three fronts: adetermined Southern army, confidentarmed oppositionists and a hostile pop-ulation, says Africa Confidential (27 ⁄ 4)When President Bashir told the SPLM,‘‘Either we end up in Juba and takeeverything or you end up in Khartoumand take everything,’’ he was acknowl-edging that the stakes could hardly behigher. What he didn’t say, in his April19th speech at the National CongressParty headquarters, was that the South-ern armed forces have proved a matchfor those of the ruling NCP. The April
10th takeover of Heglig by the SPLA –and withdrawal under internationalpressure – constituted a significantshow of power.
On paper, the SAF are far more power-ful than the SPLA – in materiel, train-ing and, most obviously, airpower. Yetseveral Western military sources thinkthe military balance fairly even on theground. Tactically, the SPLA shouldhave stayed in Heglig, said one. Mili-tarily, it certainly could have done.NCP protestations seemed aimed atdisguising the extent of the SAF defeat.SPLA spokesperson Col. Aguer saidthe SPLA had killed some 500 SAFmen, in Heglig (Southerners call it PanThou in Dinka). Other sources sayaround 3,500 troops died, of about6,000.
Enter the Sudan Revolutionary Front(SRF), which, Africa Confidential saysit understands, first drove the SAFout of Heglig the week before theSPLA took it. These were mainlyDarfur fighters from the Justice andEquality Movement (JEM), with somefrom the Liberation and JusticeMovement (LJM) who had refused tojoin Khartoum in 2010 with LJMhead El Tigani Seisi Mohamed Ateem.The SRF pursued the SAF to Khora-sana, where fighting continued.
A key reason why both SPLA-N andSPLA have been able to defeat theSAF so readily is morale. The SAFnever ‘won’ the war in the South andare even less likely to defeat the SPLAnow it is better equipped and fired withthe independence spirit. The SRF,meanwhile, is fighting for its people,the marginalised of the ‘New South’,and a secular state, and against aregime it believes it can overthrow. Itknows it has the support of manyoppositionists and potentially, of mil-lions, as it builds its own structures andits relations with Sudan’s wide range ofestablished parties.
SRF confronts a once proud army ofwhich the officer corps was systemati-cally purged after the National IslamicFront coup of June 1989. Hundreds ofofficers were killed, gaoled, tortured ordismissed. Ideological qualificationsmatter more than military ones and theSAF declined, leaving the field to theeven more ‘Islamised’ security forcesand the Popular Defence Forces (PDF),many of which fought at Heglig. Mean-while, the army has lost its old recruit-ing grounds in the South, NubaMountains and Darfur. Morale is solow that prisons are packed withdeserters.
The government of South Sudan(GOSS) has been rearming since 2005and much hardware is deployed near
the border. ‘‘They’re good at movingstuff around the country undetected’,observed one Western former official,‘and they’re ready to fight across theentire border’’. This leaves the SAFsandwiched between the SRF andSPLA. Its response is long-range andaerial bombardment at Heglig and intothe South.
Khartoum has continued the sporadicaerial bombardment of the South itlaunched weeks ago, targeting the tensof thousands of Sudanese refugees incamps there. That is why the GOSS,and Southerners in general, were out-raged that the UN and friendly govern-ments condemned the SPLA’s entryinto Heglig when they had been silentover the bombing, the earlier attackson Abyei and other NCP abuses, Northand South.
Having gained a sliver of internationalacknowledgement, though, Khartoumpromptly accused Juba of implementing‘Zionist’ and ‘crusader’ programmesand on April 23rd, bombed Bentiu andRub Kona, once Chevron’s oil head-quarters.
Khartoum has arrested SRF activists,yet the protest contagion has spread:youth movements Girifna and Shebaabmin agle el Taghir (Youth for Change)have joined the SRF, with Girifna rally-ing Muslim support for Christianswhen a Presbyterian church was burntdown in Khartoum in late April.
Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda have helda series of urgent meetings and Kam-pala’s Chief of Defence Forces, GeneralAronda Nyakairima, warned on April19th, ‘‘We cannot sit and watch. As amember of this region, Uganda willintervene’’.
After Khartoum rejected more talks,Juba tried to regain the internationalhigh ground. Senior officials went toEthiopia on April 24th to tell the AU,according to Africa Confidential, thatthe GOSS was willing to talk to theNCP but with a broader mediationteam than that led by South African ex-President Thabo Mbeki. This means theInter-Governmental Authority onDevelopment (IGAD) and possiblymore on the Comprehensive PeaceAgreement model. Juba is also takingthis message to Europe, New York andWashington.
Abyei: South Sudan said on the 28th itwas ready to withdraw its police forcesfrom parts of the contested borderregion of Abyei to comply with interna-tional demands.
‘‘The Minister of Interior will enhancethe withdrawal of South Sudan’s policeforce from Abyei... as long as the UNand AU will look after its citizens in
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the area’’, a spokesman said. (Sources asreferenced in text)
Questions of Nationality
The crisis also highlights the plight ofthe hundreds of thousands of peoplewho found themselves on the wrongside of the border at independence andare now treated as foreigners. Tens ofthousands of South Sudanese in thenorth lost their jobs after the split.About 500,000 are now technically ille-gal because they lack official residencypapers.
The governor of White Nile borderstate set a deadline of May 5th for12,000 ethnic South Sudanese gatheredsouth of Khartoum in Kosti to leavethe country, state news agency SUNAreported on April 29th. He said thesoutherners in the area were posing asecurity and environmental threat.
Some South Sudanese have been livingin the town for months, in makeshiftshelters, while they await a trip bybarge down the White Nile River toSouth Sudan. They are among hun-dreds of thousands of ethnic Southern-ers who the South Sudanese embassyestimates remain in the north after anApril 8th deadline for them to eitherformalise their status or leave Sudan.
The ransacking of a Presbyterianchurch compound in Khartoum onApril 21st by a Muslim mob illustratesthe increasing hostility faced by someof the hundreds of thousands of resi-dents of the Sudanese capital whoseorigins lie in what is now South Sudan,
writes IRIN. Twoindependentchurches in thedistrict were alsoattacked.
In the Southerncapital Juba,thousands ofSudanese citizensalso face a newgovernment thathas declared themexpatriates,though it has notyet imposed anynew rules for resi-dency papers.Plans for twodeals that wouldgrant each other’scitizens residencyand free move-ment founderedwhen Khartoumcalled off a sum-mit in protest atborder fighting.Sudan haltedriver traffic inMarch, accusing
Juba of using boats to transport weap-ons to rebels in the north, Reutersreported (30 ⁄ 4). Both governments alsosuspended direct flights between thetwo states. (Sources as referenced in text)Armies clash p. 19189
Refugees
There has been ‘‘a notable increase inthe number of new arrivals’’ who havecrossed the border from South Kordo-fan into South Sudan’s Unity state, theUnited Nations humanitarian agency(OCHA) said in its weekly bulletin,covering the week to April 22nd.
The refugees are fleeing fightingbetween Sudanese troops and theSPLM-N, it said. An average of 234people crossed into the South every dayin April, compared with 84 per day inFebruary and March, the bulletinadded.
‘‘Newly arrived refugees told UNHCRthat food shortages, concerns that theymay not be able to reach Yida with therainy season approaching and intensefighting in their places of origin haveprompted them to move to Yida,’’ saidthe bulletin. Yida refugee camp is a keydestination for people fleeing the fight-ing in South Kordofan, which began inJune 2011. (AFP 30 ⁄ 4)
Meanwhile Kenya has been asked to setup a new camp for hundreds of Suda-nese. The influx of refugees at Kakumarefugee camp in Turkana County hasstrained resources, leading to incessantfights, a UN agency said. In early
En Nahud
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ROADSINSECURE
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(Africa-confidential.com 2012)
Heglig and the border
Once again the disputed and oil-rich bor-derland area of Heglig is at the centre ofa confrontation, writes the UN humani-tarian and news anlysis service, IRIN.
Heglig (see Map) is widely seen as beingin South Kordofan, Sudan, though SouthSudan President Salva Kiir Mayarditclaimed it as Southern on March 26th,when the SPLA first went into the town.Under the 2005 Comprehensive PeaceAgreement (CPA), the international bor-der is supposed to be that defined beforeIndependence in 1956. However, demar-cating it is one of many unresolved CPAissues. An additional problem is thatHeglig town grew up only after Chevronfound oil there in 1982: old maps showmany places called Heglig because itmeans desert date or torchwood. Locally,it is seen as Southern, home mainly toDinka and Nuer people, according toAfrica Confidential (27 ⁄ 4).Heglig lies between Abyei, another dis-puted area, and the Nuba Mountains ofSudan’s South Kordofan State, where,since June 2011, government forces havebeen battling insurgents (SPLA-N) withlinks to the former rebels now in powerin Juba.
Heglig is also close to the border town ofJau, which was captured in late Februaryby the SPLA-N.
During the negotiations that led to the2005 CPA it was agreed that Hegligwould be included in Abyei, one of the‘‘Three Areas’’ (along with South Kordo-fan and Blue Nile) whose north-or-southstatus was not fully resolved. Abyei hasbeen occupied by Sudanese troops sinceMay 2011 and has not had the CPA-mandated referendum to determine itsfuture. More than 100,000 Abyei resi-dents who fled in May remain displacedin South Sudan.
Links can be drawn between the latestescalation and key issues that remainunresolved since the CPA was signed:border demarcation, oil-revenue sharingand the Three Areas. Sudan lost somethree-quarters of its oil supplies whenSouth Sudan became independent. Sincethen, Heglig has accounted for abouthalf of Sudan’s daily output of 115,000barrels, although production is currentlyhalted.
The latest clashes also threaten an impor-tant agreement Juba and Khartoumsigned in March 2012 that would havemade it easier for hundreds of thousandsof southerners to remain in Sudan.
Mukesh Kapila, who served as UNhumanitarian coordinator in Sudan in2003 and 2004 and now works for theAegis Trust, an advocacy NGO, toldIRIN: ‘‘The CPA fudged-over the legiti-mate complaints of the long-sufferingmarginalized people of Nuba, Abyei,Blue Nile, and Darfur. Unless a sincereattempt is made to solve this in a fairand just manner, violent conflict willcontinue to erupt here and there.’’(Sources as referenced in text)
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April, clashes erupted at Kakumabetween Dinka and Nubian refugeesfrom South Sudan, resulting in onedeath.
‘‘The camp has, in the last few months,been receiving about 150 refugees perday but the figure is now stabilising atabout 4,500 new refugees a month,’’said Turkana West district commis-sioner Patrick Muiira. (Daily Nation23 ⁄ 4)
IN BRIEFAlgeria – Libya: Speaking on national televi-sion after his April 15th-16th visit to Algiers,the chairman of the Libyan National Transi-tional Council (NTC), Mustapha Abduljalil,said President, Abdelaziz Bouteflika hadpromised to let the Algerian judicial authori-ties cooperate with Libya in its bid to issuearrest warrants against Gaddafy’s relationsin Algeria. (PANA 24 ⁄ 4)An agreement also establishes a new bilat-eral commission to ‘‘guarantee the securityof their borders, safeguard their interestsand increase their practical skills for dealingwith terrorism’’, a joint statement said.(agencies)
Meanwhile Algeria and Tunisia in talks atthe end of March and early April agreed toincrease co-operation in security, stabilityand development. (Magharebia.com 6 ⁄ 4)Cameroon – Nigeria: Cameroon hasincreased the number of security officersalong its border with Nigeria after an attackby suspected members of the Islamist groupBoko Haram that left 15 people dead. (Van-guard 13 ⁄ 4)CAR – Sudan: Eleven Central Africantroops belonging to a regional border taskforce were killed in Sudan by rebels usinggunfire and rocket-propelled grenades, offi-cials said on April 20th. The AfricanUnion-United Nations Hybrid Operation inDarfur (UNAMID) was investigating. (AFP20 ⁄ 4)Ethiopia – Kenya: Hundreds of families fledthe border after the killing of two police-men by suspected Merille militia. At thesame time, the Kenyan government onApril 18th sought an explanation from theEthiopian authorities over the raid at To-donyang Rapid Deployment Unit (RPD)camp by more than 300 militia. TurkanaNorth District Commissioner Albert Mwil-itsa called for Ethiopian government actionon the militia, saying the attacks were nolonger about dispute over grazing fieldsbetween members of the Merille and
Turkana pastoral communities. (DailyNation 19 ⁄ 4)Libya – Tunisia: Some 100 Tunisian workerskidnapped by armed men in western Libyahave been released, Tunisia said on April18th after a diplomatic row in which Tripolidenied any abductions had occurred. Tuni-sia’s Interior ministry said in a statementthat the workers’ seizure had been in retalia-tion for the arrest of Libyan nationals inTunisia, and said Tunis had released threeLibyans arrested on April 14th near the bor-der.
The border zone is plagued by violence andblack-market trade and has seen a surge inarms trafficking since the Libyan uprising.Five Tunisian men were kidnapped in thesame area on April 7th and let go two dayslater. (AFP 18 ⁄ 4)Somalia - South Africa: A South Africansecurity trainer was killed on April 27th inSomalia by unknown gunmen during a mis-sion against pirates, the government of thesemi-autonomous region of Puntland said. ASouth African Ministry of Security and Dis-armament statement named the man as Lo-dewyk Pietersen, and said he worked forSaracen International, a security firm thattrains anti-piracy forces in Puntland. (agen-cies)
GOVERNMENTAPPOINTMENTS
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICOF CONGONew Prime Minister
Ponyo’s priority will be to manageand stabilise the economy.
President Joseph Kabila appointedFinance Minister Augustin MatataPonyo as his Prime Minister on April18th. Mr Matata, 47, is a respectedfinancial expert credited with stabilisingthe country’s economy.
The appointment ends five months ofdeadlock after polls criticised for wide-spread irregularities. The country hasbeen run by a temporary administra-tion after Mr Kabila and his party wasreturned to power.
Ponyo, who was born in the centralcity of Kindu but grew up in Kin-shasa, previously worked at the CongoCentral Bank and was director of theCentral Coordination Bureau(BCeCO), an office created to manageauthorised foreign investment in thecountry.
Ponyo’s first job will be to draw up abudget for the government. Sincebecoming Finance Minister in 2010 hehas attracted praise from the Interna-tional Monetary Fund (IMF) for stabil-ising the country’s economy.
He ran a US$12bn debt reductionagreement with international creditors,which was seen as the main achieve-ment of President Kabila’s first term inoffice. But the introduction of a value-added tax earlier in 2012 created aspike in inflation that sparked criticisminside the country.
Analysts say securing the mineral-richeast of the country is also importantfor the economy - militias still roamthe area despite attempts by the UNand army to disarm them. (BBC NewsOnline 19 ⁄ 4; � AFP18 ⁄ 4 2012)
Opposition Party Sackings: The opposi-tion Union for Democracy and SocialProgress (UDPS) has dismissed 33 ofits members for serving in parliament,even though the party leader, EtienneTshisekedi. dismissed the results of theNovember election as invalid.
‘‘These people have been declaredelected by the CENI (National Inde-pendent Electoral Commission), andnot by the polls,’’ UDPS interim secre-tary general Raymnond Kahungu, told
AFP. UDPS became DR Congo’s mainopposition party with 41 elected mem-bers of parliament. (� AFP14 ⁄ 4 2012)Government resigns p. 19191A
LIBYAGovernment Stays Put
The decision not to go ahead with arumoured reshuffle is aimed atpreserving stability.
Libya’s National Transitional Council(NTC) decided on April 29th that theinterim government should stay inplace, notably to ensure the success ofJune elections for a constituent assem-bly, interim leader Mustafa Abdel Jaliltold reporters.
The fate of the country’s interim gov-ernment, which has become the butt ofscathing criticism, was decided at ahigh level meeting less than two monthsbefore the first national poll since theouster of Muammar Gaddafy’s regime.
Abdel Jalil’s declaration smashed wide-spread expectations that there would bea cabinet reshuffle at the least, or evena government change after days of pub-lic barbs exchanged between the twobranches of government. Key membersof the ruling NTC had been pushingfor a no confidence vote against thegovernment of interim Prime MinisterAbdel Rahim al-Kib.
The interim leader said the decisionwas made with the aim of preserving
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