Everglades and South Florida

Impacts at a Glance� The Everglades and other south Florida

ecosystems already are stressed by thepressures of human development. Globalwarming will add additional stresses, suchas higher water levels, increased salinity,and warmer water temperatures.

� The sea along the Florida coast is rising6–10 times faster than the average rate forthat area over the past 3,000 years.

� Sea level in south Florida is likely to rise 20inches above its 1990 level by the year 2100.

� Higher seas will make inland areas moresusceptible to damage from storm surgesduring hurricanes.

� The freshwater Everglades are separatedfrom Florida Bay by a wide ring of mangrovesthat act as a natural dike against the sea.Thefuture survival of the Everglades depends inpart on whether the mangroves can continueto keep pace with sea level rise.

� Warmer water could damage Florida’stemperature-sensitive coral reefcommunities through a phenomenonknown as coral bleaching.

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Pintail duck photo by Peter LaTourette

Rising Seas,Changing ClimateThe broad, shallow river of grass thatstretches south from Florida’s LakeOkeechobee is the largest remainingsubtropical wilderness in the continentalUnited States. Everglades National Park isone of the crown jewels of the NationalPark Service. The only place in the worldwhere alligators and crocodiles exist side byside, the park provides important habitatfor a rich variety of wildlife, fish, and plants,as well as a freshwater source for southFlorida’s burgeoning human population.

The Everglades are home to some of thenation’s most spectacular wild creatures,including the American crocodile, Floridapanther, and West Indian manatee. Thevast sloughs and sawgrass prairies providecrucial habitat for endangered birds suchas the snail kite and wood stork, andthreatened species such as the southernbald eagle, piping plover, and roseate tern.

The Everglades also are a place apart, anatural area unlike any other in NorthAmerica.

The 1.5 million-acre Everglades NationalPark has been designated an InternationalBiosphere Reserve, a World Heritage Site,and a Wetlands of International Import-ance. As Marjory Stoneman Douglas wrotein 1947, “There are no other Everglades inthe world. They are, they always have been,one of the unique regions of the Earth;remote, never wholly known.”

In addition to the complex and fragileEverglades ecosystem, south Florida’sabundant natural treasures include cypressswamps, mangrove forests, a highlyproductive estuary, coral reefs, and theFlorida Keys. South Florida’s natural areasprovide visitors and residents with some ofthe nation’s best fishing, diving, canoeing,camping, birding, and nature studyopportunities.

But south Florida also faces severeenvironmental challenges. Florida has one

of the fastest growing human populationsin the United States, especially in thesouthern counties of Miami-Dade,Broward, and Palm Beach. Some 900people move to Florida every day, with39 million people vacationing in the statesome years.

The Everglades have been called “the mostendangered national park in the nation.”

Water management systems for floodcontrol, agriculture, and urban watersupplies have dramatically alteredfreshwater flow through the River ofGrass, with repercussions throughout theecosystem. For example, the draining ofthe Everglades caused wood storkpopulations to decline by almost 95percent from the 1870s to the 1970s. Thereduced water flow has allowed saltwaterto penetrate inland, contaminatingfreshwater aquifers, and agriculturalrunoff has polluted the water withphosphorus and other excess nutrients.With less freshwater flowing into FloridaBay, the bay has become saltier.

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“The Everglades is a test.If we pass, we get to keep the planet.”

— Joe Podgor, Former Executive DirectorFriends of the Everglades

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The increasing salinity affects life in thebay and may harm coral reefs near the cutswhere bay water flows to the oceanthrough the Florida Keys.

Federal and state programs are underwayto restore freshwater flow to theEverglades and to prevent further damageto the ecosystem. But some scientists areconcerned that these efforts may not savethe Everglades in the long term. Thesescientists recognize that the Evergladesand south Florida are vulnerable to a verydifferent threat emerging on the horizon:the rapidly rising seas and climatic changesassociated with global warming.

Higher seas already are affecting theFlorida coastline, and scientists expect thechanges to accelerate in the decades ahead.

Visitors to the observation tower at SharkValley in the year 2050 or 2075 mightbehold a very different landscape from theone they see today. University of Miamigeologist Harold Wanless speculates thatinstead of today’s River of Grass dottedwith tree islands, the view from the towermight be one of mangrove-lined creeksand shallow saltwater or brackish ponds.The once-plentiful alligators and deermight be a rare sight at Shark Valley, manyof them having moved inland to findbetter habitat with fresher water. Alongthe Wilderness Waterway, a popular canoe

route that runs along the western side ofthe Everglades, campsites and chickees(elevated camping shelters) could beflooded with saltwater.

The effects of future sea level rise on theEverglades are uncertain. The freshwaterEverglades are separated from the sea by a broad ring of mangroves. Themangroves’ roots trap sediments, buildingthick layers of peat that have created awide, low dike against the sea. If thisnatural barrier can continue to growvertically in pace with sea level rise, theEverglades may be relatively unaffected bythe rising tide. But if the sea rises fasterthan the mangroves, or if large tracts ofmangrove forest are damaged byhurricanes and fail to recover, much of thefreshwater Everglades might disappearduring the next 100 years, replaced bysaltwater wetlands and shallow bays.

Scientists do not know which is the morelikely scenario. In the face of suchuncertainty, many environmentalists andpolicymakers believe we should “hope forthe best but plan for the worst,” and takeprecautionary action to slow globalwarming and sea level rise.

The Rising TideHow does global warming lead to sea levelrise? A warmer climate causes water at thesurface of the ocean to expand and addslarge quantities of freshwater runoff frommelting glaciers and ice sheets. In areaswhere the land is sinking, as it is alongmuch of the southern Atlantic and Gulfcoasts, the effects of rising seas are evenmore pronounced.

South Florida’s sea level has risen about12 inches since 1846. It is still rising today,at a rate that is equivalent to 8-16 inchesper century. That rate is 6-10 times fasterthan the average rate of sea level risealong the south Florida coast during thepast 3,000 years.

If the current trend were to continuewithout any additional global warming, the sea along the south Florida coast would climb another 3 inches by 2025 and10 inches by 2100. But the global warmingpredicted for the decades ahead is expectedto accelerate sea level rise. During the next25 years, the sea is likely to rise 5 inchesrather than 3. By 2100, the best availablescience indicates that south Florida seaswill be approximately 20 inches higher than they were in 1990. There is even a5 percent chance that the sea will rise by as much as 36 inches.

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Rising seas may cause the Evergladessystem to drain more sluggishly. Saltwatermay move up rivers and into aquifers,contaminating freshwater ecosystems andgroundwater. Mangroves may spread inlandand invade formerly freshwater marshes.Rising sea levels in conjunction with stormsare likely to increase coastal flooding anderosion, causing more particulate matter,dissolved organic matter, and nutrients toflow into bay waters, affecting animal andplant life in the bays and coral reefs.

Looking beyond the next century, EPAresearchers estimate that the sea in southFlorida probably will rise 30 inches above1990 levels by the year 2150. At thoselevels, most of Everglades National Parkcould essentially become an extension ofFlorida Bay. South Florida’s key deer,alligators, panthers, and other wildlife

What is Global Warming? The Earth’s climate has changed in the past, and will continue to change naturally in the future. Ice ages,long warm periods, and short-term fluctuations in temperature and precipitation are all elements ofthe global climate’s natural variability.

Today, the average global temperature is rising. Is that natural? Some of the temperature increase canbe explained by natural factors. But many scientists believe that a portion of the warming trend may becaused by humans. Human activities are creating a buildup of greenhouse gases—primarily carbondioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—in the atmosphere. The heat-trapping property of these gases isundisputed. Although scientists do not know exactly how the Earth’s climate responds to increases ingreenhouse gases, they do know that the current warming trend is consistent with changes that wouldbe expected from the increase in greenhouse gases.

Scientists generally believe that the burning of fossil fuels and other human activities are the primaryreason for the increased concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Fossil fuels burned to runcars and trucks, heat homes and businesses, and power factories are responsible for almost 99 percentof U.S. anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and about 20 percent of our nitrous oxide emissions.Of the carbon dioxide emissions, industrial activity accounted for 33 percent in 1997. Personal andcommercial transportation accounted for 30 percent, and residential and commercial energy useaccounted for 19 and 16 percent, respectively. Increased agriculture, deforestation, landfills, industrialproduction, and mining also contribute a significant share of carbon dioxide, methane, and othergreenhouse gas emissions.

Average global temperatures at the Earth’s surface have increased 0.6–1.2°F since the late 19th century.The 10 warmest years in the 20th century all occurred in the last 15 years. Snow cover in the northernhemisphere, floating ice in the Arctic Ocean, and the areas covered by mountain glaciers have alldecreased. Globally, sea level has risen 4–10 inches during the past century. Worldwide precipitationover land has increased by about 1 percent, and the frequency of extreme rainfall events has increasedthroughout much of the United States.

Although it is impossible to predict future changes in climate with certainty, many scientists believethat the continued addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere is likely to raise the Earth’s averagetemperature by several degrees in the next 100 years. Rising global temperatures are expected to raisesea level and change precipitation and other local climate conditions. Changing regional climate couldalter forests, crop yields, and water supplies. It also could threaten human health and harm birds, fish,and many types of ecosystems.

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would be squeezed into a shrinking habitatbounded by the shoreline advancing inlandfrom the south and west, suburbandevelopment expanding from the east, andagricultural development in the north.

Changes in StoreIn addition to the rising seas, scientistsexpect global warming to lead to changesin temperature and precipitation that willaffect plants and wildlife.

Although it is impossible to predict withcertainty the future climate of a smallregion, computer models suggest that theoverall climate in Florida may warm andthat extremely hot days in summer maybecome more frequent. A warmer climatecould allow heat-loving pest species, suchas the invasive Australian Melaleuca tree,to expand their range northward inFlorida. However, if warmer winters leadto fewer frosts, tropical plants and trees

that are vulnerable to cold temperaturesmay benefit.

Increases in the atmospheric concentrationof carbon dioxide, one of the primarygreenhouse gases responsible for globalwarming, may affect competition anddominance among plant species. Carbondioxide generally promotes plant growth,but not all species respond alike to higherconcentrations of the gas.

Many people wonder if global warmingwill affect rainfall, hurricanes, or thesevere weather events associated with ElNiño and La Niña. Rainfall has indeeddeclined in the Keys and parts of southFlorida over the last 100 years, whileincreasing in central Florida and theFlorida Panhandle. But scientists do notknow to what extent these changes arerelated to global warming. If rainfallcontinues to decline in the future, watersupplies for south Florida residents couldbe threatened. Past droughts have led to

mandatory water restrictions in the region,a situation that could be exacerbated inthe future as sea level rise causes saltwaterto infiltrate aquifers.

Scientists also are not certain whetherglobal warming would affect the frequencyand severity of hurricanes and tropicalstorms, or if it would change the frequencyand strength of El Niño and La Niñaevents. El Niño has been linked to thedrought and subsequent wildfires thatoccurred over much of Florida during 1998.

We do know that global warming and sealevel rise will add yet another stress tosouth Florida ecosystems alreadythreatened by urban development,agriculture, air and water pollution, watermanagement practices, and invasions byexotic species. Some researchers areconcerned that climate change and sealevel rise could help push endangeredspecies like the Florida panther and keydeer even closer to extinction, because the

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“Competition [for diminishing freshwater resources] will surelyresult in a no-win situation for humans and the Evergladesunder a scenario of global warming and rising sea level.”

— Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1995

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remaining populations of these speciesmay be squeezed between the rising seaand human populations. There are 16endangered and six threatened wildlifespecies in the four national parks andpreserves of south Florida.

Florida BayFlorida Bay is the world’s largest sea grassbed and a nursery ground for at least 22species of commercially and recreationallyharvested fish. The bay is a crucial nestingarea for American crocodiles and providesyear-round habitat for manatees, ospreys,bald eagles, and wading birds.

Florida Bay will be affected by climatechange and sea level rise. The bay is likelyto become deeper than it is now. As stormssuperimposed on higher sea levels cause

increased erosion of the coastline, FloridaBay’s waters may become cloudy witheroded sediments. During the next severalcenturies, many of the undeveloped keysthat currently dot the waters of FloridaBay may disappear as the sea rises.

Plants and animals that live in the bay aresensitive to changes in the proportion offresh to salty water. During the 20thcentury, water management projects insouth Florida increased the salinity ofFlorida Bay by diverting freshwater thatformerly flowed in from the Everglades.Salinity is especially high in drought years.High salinity may have played a role inrecent mass die-offs of more than 100,000acres of seagrasses in Florida Bay. Highlysaline water from Florida Bay also canharm coral reefs in the Keys.

Scientists are not certain how globalwarming will affect the salinity of FloridaBay. On the one hand, sea level rise wouldincrease the bay’s salinity by adding more

seawater to the bay. Warmer temperatureswould increase evaporation, making thebay even saltier. But if global warming alsocauses precipitation to increase, morefreshwater could enter Florida Bay duringthe rainy season. Under that scenario,seagrasses and other plants and animals inthe bay could be harmed, since too muchfreshwater is as harmful as too little.

The KeysProductive coral reefs, seagrass beds, andmangroves make the Florida Keys one ofNorth America’s unique natural ecosystemsand a top destination for scuba diving,snorkeling, and sport fishing.

Sea level has fluctuated many times sincethe formation of the ancient coral reefthat is now the upper and middle Keys.Today, sea level is rising. At Looe Key, aspectacular reef system, land is visible onlyduring some low tides. Back in 1744, when

What Can Be Done?Prevention of human-induced climate change also is an important strategy. Some global warmingprobably will occur no matter what we do, because some of it is natural. But also, humans have becomedependent on fossil fuels. The burning of fossil fuels emits greenhouse gases, which may remain in theatmosphere for years, decades, or even centuries, exacerbating the natural warming. But we as individ-uals can take action now to reduce our own consumption of fossil fuels by improving energy efficiencyand using alternative energy sources. (See “Searching for Solutions” on pages 8–9 and “What PeopleCan Do” on page 9).

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photo: National Park Service

a British ship ran aground, the captainlater described to the admiralty an island—Looe Key—that measured 350 meters longand 75 meters wide.

The Florida Keys will be strongly affectedby future sea level rise. Some may simplydisappear from the map. Much of the land in the Keys is extremely low-lying—between zero to around three feet abovecurrent sea level. These areas would beseverely flooded if predictions of an 18-20inch rise in sea level during the next 100years prove accurate.

The Keys already are experiencing rapid sealevel rise. Measurements at Key West indicatethat sea level has risen about one foot since1846, and currently is rising at a rate ofapproximately 15 inches per 100 years.

Higher areas will be more vulnerable todamage from storm surges than they are

today. From 1900 to 1994, 36 percent ofall U.S. hurricanes hit Florida.

Coral ReefsThe largest living coral reef in the contiguousUnited States lies seaward of the FloridaKeys. This coral ecosystem is more than 130miles in length, making it the third largestcoral reef tract in the world. Extending southfrom Miami to the Dry Tortugas, the reefsare home to more than 5,500 marine species.The reefs also act as a natural buffer toprotect the Keys against catastrophic stormsurges from hurricanes.

Climate change could threaten the reefthrough warmer ocean temperatures,changes in the salinity of water fromFlorida Bay, and increases in the water’ssediment load from coastal erosion.

Corals worldwide can tolerate temperaturesonly a few degrees higher than normal hightemperatures for their particular region. Asa result, global warming could exacerbate aphenomenon known as “coral bleaching.”Increases in water temperature of onedegree Fahrenheit or more for as little asone month often result in extensive coralbleaching, which occurs when warmingwaters or other stresses cause the expulsionof algae that normally live with the coral.The algae are important for the health ofthe reef because they provide corals withmuch of their food and oxygen. Ultimately,the loss of these algae may kill the coral.

A number of stresses or environmentalchanges may cause bleaching, includingdisease, excess shade, increased levels ofultraviolet radiation, sedimentation,pollution, salinity changes, and increasedtemperatures.

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“Coral reefs are projected to be among the most sensitiveecosystems to long-term climate change.”

— Rafe Pomerance U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for theEnvironment and Development, March 5, 1999

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MangrovesRapid sea level rise could harm low-lyingmangrove communities, affecting themany important environmental functionsthey provide. Mangrove communities filterout pollution, stabilize sediments, and holdnutrients—all functions that help toprotect the shoreline from coastal erosion.Florida’s mangrove forests also providefood, nesting, and nursery areas for manyanimals—including more than 220 fishspecies, 24 reptile and amphibian species,18 mammal species, and 181 bird species.

Mangrove trees have special salt-filteringroots that allow them to obtain freshwaterfrom saltwater. The trees produce peat bytrapping sediments in the water, and theprocess of building peat normally allowsmangroves to keep up with rising sea levels.Some researchers believe that mangrovescan withstand a sea level rise of only four tofive inches per century—considerably lessthan that projected for the next 100 years.But others believe the picture is morecomplicated, and that mangroves in someareas may have little trouble keeping up with sea level rise. In general, theresponse of mangroves to sea level risedepends on the type of mangroves, theirenvironmental setting, the amount offreshwater available to maintain rootgrowth, and the sediment supply.

Mangrove communities in south Floridaalready are affected by a number ofstresses, including invasive BrazilianPepper plants, hurricanes, agriculturalrunoff, and human development. Climatechange and a rise in sea level pose newstresses to an ecosystem already in danger.

Searching for SolutionsTo address the threat of global warming,south Florida could improve the health andresiliency of its natural ecosystems,prepare for rising sea levels and otherchanges, and work to limit future sea levelrise and global warming by reducinggreenhouse gas emissions.

Many efforts are underway to restore theEverglades and prevent further harm,including the massive program for“replumbing” the Everglades, the EvergladesForever Act, the South Florida EcosystemRestoration Task Force, the FloridaGovernor’s Commission for a SustainableSouth Florida, and other federal, state, andtribal ecological restoration efforts. Theseprograms may help improve the ability ofthe Everglades and other south Floridaecosystems to adapt to climate change. Ahealthier Everglades with improvedfreshwater flow would be less vulnerable to

the stresses of a changing climate, andwould slow the invasion of saltwater.

A number of initiatives to protect coralreefs also are underway. For example, theU.S. Coral Reef Initiative, launched in1996, supports efforts to conserve andsustainably manage coral reefs and relatedecosystems such as seagrass beds andmangrove forests.

Regional and local planning and zoningpolicies could take into account theimplications of future sea level rise. Newdevelopment could be set back far enoughto allow wetlands to move inland naturallyas the sea rises. For example, some statesprohibit new houses in areas likely to beeroded in the next 30-60 years. Otherstates have implemented some version of

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“rolling easements” in which landownersare allowed to build but only on the condition that they will remove thestructure if and when it is threatened byan advancing shoreline.

Programs to help endangered speciesrecover and to help restore ecosystems alsocould factor in future sea level rise.Conservation officials could try to ensurethat species have somewhere to move whenthe sea rises—a challenge in south Floridawhere so much land already is developed.

Slowing Climate ChangeToday, action is occurring at every level toreduce, avoid, and better understand therisks associated with global warming. Many

What People Can DoWe all add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere whenever we use energy from fossil fuels. Residentialenergy use accounted for 19 percent of overall CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels in1997, and motor vehicle use accounted for approximately 20 percent. Here are a few actions thatpeople can take to reduce their emissions.

� If you live in south Florida, you can help restore freshwater flow through the Everglades by savingwater: avoid excessive watering of your garden or washing of your car, use low-flow toilets andshowerheads.

� Use mass transit, carpool with friends, or ride a bike whenever possible.

� When it’s time to replace the family vehicle, consider one that gets more miles per gallon than yourpresent vehicle.

� If you have a small boat for fishing and recreation, run it with “human power” when possible.

� When it’s time to replace an appliance, look for the Energy Star® label identifying energy-efficient models.

� When buying or building a new house, an ENERGY STAR model gives greater quality and comfort aswell as lower monthly costs. For more information, go to the Energy Star Homes web site,www.epa.gov/homes.

� Buy products that feature reusable, recyclable, or reduced packaging to save the energy required tomanufacture new containers and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from landfills.

� Encourage your company to join EPA programs such as ENERGY STAR BuildingsSM and Waste Wi$erecycling programs, and to buy office equipment with the ENERGY STAR label.

� Plant trees, which absorb carbon dioxide from the air.

� Educate others. Let friends and family know about these practical, energy-saving steps they cantake to save money while protecting the environment.

� Encourage scientific research and public discussion on global warming and solutions such asenergy efficiency and alternative energy.

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cities and states across the country haveprepared inventories of their greenhousegas emissions, and a number of them arepursuing programs and policies that willresult in reductions of those emissions.

At the national level, the federalgovernment is working in partnership withbusinesses, states, and local governmentsto address global warming. In addition, theU.S. Global Change Research Programcoordinates the world’s most extensiveresearch effort on climate change.

For More Information� The Florida Coastal Management

Program at 850-488-1554, or Florida Sea Grant (Miami-DadeCounty) at 305-361-4017 can providebackground information on southFlorida and its coastal environment.

� The U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency’s Global Warming site includesdetailed information on climatechange, impacts, and actions. www.epa.gov/globalwarming/

� EPA’s fact sheet on Climate Change and Florida includes information onpotential impacts.http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/impacts/stateimp/florida/index.html

� EPA’s Coral Reef Protection web sitedescribes efforts underway to protectFlorida’s coral reef ecosystem.http://www.epa.gov/owow/oceans/coral/

� The latest U.S. National Assessment ofClimate Variability and Change gives adetailed report on the potential effects ofglobal warming in the United States.

http://www.nacc.usgcrp.gov/

� Check out the ENERGY STAR web site fora directory of energy-efficient productsfor your home.http://www.energystar.gov

� The National Park Service’s web siteprovides links to south Florida’snational parks, preserves, monuments,and seashores.http://www.nps.gov/

� The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s website provides information on wildliferefuges in south Florida.http://www.fws.gov/

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