South China Sea:Conflict Solution

Yale IPC 2018

Jaymi-Lyn Souza, Nicholas Clark,Noah Aurelio, Timothy JarvisWorcester State University

Historical Context

➢ Ambiguous territorial claims in regions of the South China Sea have allowed contentious situations to develop between nations in the region.

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➢ There has never been an agreed upon claim over the region

➢ As a result, disputes in the area has been characterized by rising and falling periods of conflict

1.THE PROBLEM

What makes this issue significant?

““China will never move an inch on its core

interests of sovereignty and territorial integrity

and will always stand up for that at any cost.” - Li Hongmei, The People’s Daily, 2011

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The Issues

➢ Sovereignty, everyone lays claim to the region.➢ Economics, the region is in a strategic trade

location and has various important resources.➢ Military, everyone has military pressure in the

region. ➢ U.S occupies the international waters in the SCS.

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THE SOLUTION

How can we placate China and the U.S. while ensuring the economic prosperity of the entire region?

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2.

1. Negotiationsa) Bring the nations to the

negotiating tablei) Precedent in the 2002

Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea

b) The involved nations then agree upon and sign a treaty.

The Policy: First Steps

2. Treaty takes effect a) South China Sea Treaty Regulatory

Council is established under UN’s Economic and Social Commision of Asia and Pacific.

b) South China Sea Investment Bank is Established.

c) Demilitarization and investment in trade infrastructure in South China Sea

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Elements of the South China Sea Trade Treaty

Signed by: U.S., China, Myanmar/Burma,Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Brunei, Philippians

Takes effect immediately

China supports North Korea denuclearisation

Demilitarisation and economic prosperity for South China Sea by 2025

Council Created as Subcommittee of ESCAP in UN. SCSTRC consists of 1 delegate from each member state and hold annual meetings to monitor adherence to treaty.

Council creates investment bank for SCS region to stimulate trade infrastructure (China contributes initial sum) Distributed proportionately.

If council finds member does not uphold treaty duties, or displays military intimidation near the SCS, nation given 1 year to address and solve issue.

If member nation does not resolve issue after 1 year, tready is nullified, thus threatening remilitarization to keep nations faithful to treaty.

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How Do We Define the South China Sea?

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China’s Nine-Dash Line International Law Zone

The PolicyImpact

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3.

Impacts

Short TermTenstion deescilates

Investments begin in SCSTRC Investment bank

U.S. and China begin demilitarisation and work together on North Korea’s denuclearisation

Mid TermInvestments allocated to member nations proportionate to need (by GDP)

Efficient use of resources by capable nations

Long Term 2025- Demilitarisation in South China Sea

Trade infrastructure and prosperity grown in South China Sea Region

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4.Identifying and

Combating Potential Problems

What can go wrong, and how do we combat that?

Specific Allocations to Involved Parties

United States1. Nuclear

disarmament in North Korea

2. Eventual demilitarization in the SCS Zone

3. U.S. gets a transit pass for commercial vessels in the region

China1. U.S. leaving the

Chinese sphere of Influence

2. Mediate control over the region of the SCS

3. Energy security through access to oil

ASEAN1. The economic

growth they desire without military conflict through trade investment

2. Use of the SCS zone

3. Fair prices on oil proportionate to their GDP

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Other issues...

Issue: The US and ASEAN fear China gaining too much power- Counter: The U.N. regulatory subcommittee established for the

region (SCSTRC) will check Chinese power- If there is a violation that cannot be solved within one year the

treaty becomes null and void.Issue: The proposal is too radical

- Counter: This is conflict resolution, which varies from the norm.- China is the strongest power in the region, the other nations

haven’t been able to band together, other countries get benefits and we avoid military conflict

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5.Conclusion

Concluding Thoughts

We believe that this is the most realistic way to spur rapid advancement while also preventing conflict in the region.No policy is guaranteed to work, but we must look to precedent and the social climate in the various nations involved and try to find the best solution possible.

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Questions?

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