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PUBLIC Distribution: Public Forum - 18 July 2018 South Australian Energy Transformation Adelaide Public Forum Wednesday 18 July 2018

South Australian Energy Transformation Adelaide Public Forum · 2019-01-22 · 2 PUBLIC Distribution: Public Forum - 18 July 2018 What is SA Energy Transformation? An ElectraNet led

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Page 1: South Australian Energy Transformation Adelaide Public Forum · 2019-01-22 · 2 PUBLIC Distribution: Public Forum - 18 July 2018 What is SA Energy Transformation? An ElectraNet led

PUBLIC Distribution: Public Forum - 18 July 2018

South Australian Energy Transformation

Adelaide Public Forum

Wednesday 18 July 2018

Page 2: South Australian Energy Transformation Adelaide Public Forum · 2019-01-22 · 2 PUBLIC Distribution: Public Forum - 18 July 2018 What is SA Energy Transformation? An ElectraNet led

PUBLIC Distribution: Public Forum - 18 July 20182

What is SA Energy Transformation?

An ElectraNet led project to investigate interconnector and

network support options aimed at…

□ reducing the cost of providing secure and reliable electricity in the

near term

□ facilitating the medium to longer-term transition of the energy

sector across the National Electricity Market to low emission

energy sources

Includes an economic cost benefit (RIT-T) assessment of

feasible options to support this energy transformation

Our investigation has been undertaken in consultation with

national and jurisdictional planning bodies AEMO (National

and Victoria), Powerlink (Queensland) and TransGrid (NSW)

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Our purpose

We published a Project Assessment Draft Report (PADR) on

29 June 2018

Our purpose today is to clarify understanding of the draft

report findings and invite your feedback

Feedback will be considered as input to the next and final

stage of ElectraNet’s investigation

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PUBLIC Distribution: Public Forum - 18 July 20184

Outline

Item Notes Lead

1. Opening, welcome

and overview

Provide high level overview of context

and PADR outcomes

Rainer Korte

(15 min)

2. Interconnector

options

Summary of options considered Vinod Dayal

(10 min)

3. Non-interconnector

options

Summary of non-interconnector option

and how constructed

Hugo Klingenberg

(10 min)

4. Market benefits

assessment

Present outcomes along with high level

summary of approach and assumptions

Brad Harrison

(20 min)

5. AEMO Integrated

System Plan

Overview of ISP including what is says

about new SA interconnection

Elijah Pack

(20 min)

6. Q&A Panel discussion Rainer Korte

(40 min)

7. Summary, next

steps and close

Rainer Korte

(5 min)

Page 5: South Australian Energy Transformation Adelaide Public Forum · 2019-01-22 · 2 PUBLIC Distribution: Public Forum - 18 July 2018 What is SA Energy Transformation? An ElectraNet led

PUBLIC Distribution: Public Forum - 18 July 2018

Context and overviewRainer Korte, Executive Manager Asset Management

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Context

6

South Australia (SA) is at the forefront of energy transformation

> Leading levels of integration of

intermittent wind and solar energy

compared to demand

> Last coal fired power station closed 2016

> Reliance on gas generation and higher

gas prices is impacting electricity prices

> SA separation and load shedding events

have led to heightened concerns about

power system security

> New measures have been introduced by

AEMO and the SA Government to

manage power system security

> Ongoing policy drivers to lower carbon

emissions, new technology and

customer choice continue to drive

energy transformation

Murraylink

Interconnector

(Direct current

220 MW)

Heywood Interconnector

(currently 600 MW)

NEM – National Electricity Market

AEMO – Australian Energy Market Operator

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SA Energy Transformation

7

New challenges are emerging from the combination of relatively high levels of

intermittent generation and a relatively isolated and weakly interconnected system

SA is unique compared with other major systems with high levels of intermittent wind:

Denmark – has many interconnections with neighbouring countries

Ireland – restricts non-synchronous generation to 55% penetration levels

Germany – has many interconnections with neighbouring countries

Texas – has low levels of wind relative to system demand

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AEMO Integrated System Plan

8

Developed in response to the Federal

Government commissioned “Finkel Review”

recommendations and published 17 July 2018

Key themes…

□ Large amounts of coal fired generation is

expected to close over the next 20-years

(about a third of current energy supplies)

□ This generation will be largely replaced with

large and small scale solar and wind

generation

□ This transformation needs to be supported by

large amounts of energy storage and targeted

investment in transmission between regions –

to minimise costs and enable an affordable,

reliable and secure energy system for energy

customers now and into the future

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Consultation to date

9

All information is available at electranet.com.au

Project Specification Consultation Report (PSCR) and other associated

reports from November 2016

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Submissions received

10

From No. Topic No.

Jurisdictional planning

bodies3 Network options 5

Market participants 14Proposals for non-network

options18

Advisory bodies/

universities5

General feedback on the RIT-T

process7

Manufacturers and other

proponents13

Feedback on market modelling

approach 10

Total submissions 35 Total submissions 40

Summary of submissions to earlier consultation papers

Totals are not the same as some submissions address multiple topics

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Why we delayed publication of draft report

11

Key policy and regulatory developments since release of the PSCR

Our draft report takes these changes into account

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Draft report findings

12

A new high capacity interconnector between South Australia and New

South Wales would deliver substantial economic benefits as soon as it

can be built

Our work has been closely coordinated with the development of

AEMO’s Integrated System Plan

We have investigated four broad credible options to deliver net market

benefits and support energy market transition through:

□ Lowering dispatch costs by increasing access to supply options across

regions

□ Improving access to high quality renewable resources across regions

□ Enhancing security of electricity supply in South Australia

The recommended option delivers positive net benefits across all

reasonable future scenarios

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Overview of recommended option

13

Details

Location: A new double circuit

transmission line between Robertstown

in the mid-north of South Australia to

Wagga Wagga via Buronga in New

South Wales

Planned capacity: 800 MW

Voltage: 330 kV

Length: About 920 km

Delivery

ElectraNet would partner with

TransGrid, the transmission network

service provider in NSW

ElectraNet would fund the capital works

in SA and TransGrid would fund the

works in NSW

Cost

Total cost is estimated to be $1.5bn (SA

$400m and NSW $1.1bn)

Benefits

New interconnector is estimated to

deliver net market benefits of about $1bn

Wholesale market fuel cost savings of

$100m per annum putting downward

pressure on electricity prices

Independent modelling by ACIL Allen

estimates that annual residential

customer bills would reduce by up to

about $30 in SA and $20 in NSW

Timing

Subject to obtaining necessary

approvals, the project could be delivered

by 2022 to 2024

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We welcome feedback on our draft report

14

All information is

available at

electranet.com.au

Submissions are

due by 24 August

2018

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Interconnector optionsVinod Dayal, Principal Planning Engineer

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Network option considerations

Feedback from consultation to date

Independent flow path needed

Sizing to match parallel interconnector paths

Closing the NEM loop

Distance, technology and transmission

voltage

Connectivity

Reliability and security

Transfer capability and losses

Sharing between interconnectors

Impact on constraints in the NEM

Network options were developed in consultation

with Jurisdictional Planning Bodies

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Network options

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Options and transfer capability

Description Distance

(approx. km)

Nominal

Capacity

(MW)

Combined

Import limit

into SA (MW)

Combined

Export limit out

of SA (MW)

SA to Queensland 1450 750 1300 1300

SA to NSW 370 - 1200 300 - 1000 800 - 1300 900 - 1450

SA to NSW

(preferred option)

920 800 1300 1450

SA to Victoria 420 650 1100 1200-1350

Notes

1. Combined limits are the total allowed power transfer across the Heywood interconnector and

the new interconnector

2. Combined capacity is lower than aggregate of the two interconnector capacities

3. Export capability is generally higher than import, as it is easier to manage

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Technical assessment considerations

Technical characteristics of each interconnector option considered – for

example fast frequency response and reactive capability of HVDC options

and their contribution to improving power system stability

Surviving loss of the Heywood or new interconnector – special protection

scheme developed that responds to such events

Determining quantum of load shedding and other action (e.g. battery

response) needed for responding to major system events

Base case assumptions in relation to system strength

Maximise capability – reactive plant needed to manage voltage stability, to

ensure options can provide transfer up to higher transient or thermal limits

Synchronous condensers compared to other dynamic reactive plant

Power sharing – controllability of the new interconnector

Transient stability – Enhancement alternatives

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Next steps

Optimise scope of the preferred solution:

□ Based on feedback

□ Implication of series compensation for future connectivity (line cut-in)

□ Explore opportunities to enhance transfer capabilities further (to deliver greater

value)

□ Further develop scope of the special protection scheme

Other options will be further optimised if new information comes to light that

could change the relative ranking of options

Review system strength requirements in line with new rules and guidelines

and whether there is value in providing additional system strength to ensure

that existing and new generation is not constrained

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Non-interconnector optionHugo Klingenberg, Senior Manager Network Development

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Approach

22

Technical criteria defined in the PSCR and

associated supplementary report (SIP)

Design principles:

□ Same base case for the non-interconnector

as well as interconnector options

□ Performance must meet at least the minimum

system security requirements

□ Meet preferred system security requirements

where cost effective

□ Performance for credible contingencies

should be comparable to interconnector

options in managing the non-credible loss of

the Heywood interconnector

Considered technical criteria over time

frames to: Survive (seconds), Stabilise,

Steady (< 1 hour), Sustain (days) PSCR – Project Specification Consultation Report

SIP – Supplementary Information Paper

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Option development journey

23

PSCR

& SIP

Development

of non-

interconnector

option (Entura)

RIT-T

process

Sub-

missions

to PSCR

Clarify

sub-

missions PADR

Confirm

costs from

propo-

nents

Define

require-

ments &

implemen-

tation

Confirm

require-

ments &

effective-

ness

Develop consolidated non-

interconnector option as

input to market modelling

and cost-benefit assessment

External

changes

New

system

security

rules

AEMO

system

strength

gap

Syncons

assumed

in base

case

Techno-

logy &

capability

review

HPR,

ESCRI-SA

BESS &

SIPS

HPR – Hornsdale Power Reserve

BESS – Battery Energy Storage System

PADR – Project Assessment Draft Report

SIPS – System Integrity Protection Scheme

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Solution options (increasing cost)

24

Technology option Examples

Load shedding (at no cost in line with National

Electricity Rules)

Under Frequency Load Shedding,

Over Frequency Generation Shedding

Existing Battery Energy Storage System (BESS)

(without additional costs)

System Integrity Protection Scheme,

Fast Frequency Response

Any committed generation offering relevant

service at incremental cost

Solar thermal or pumped hydro energy

systems

Murraylink control upgrade

Installing additional synchronous condensers

Directing existing generators during system

emergencies

In line with AEMO existing practice

and costs

Contracting existing generators

Installing additional BESS/ generators

Contracted demand response

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Consolidated non-interconnector option1

25

Technology/location Nameplate

Inertia or Fast

Frequency Response

(FFR) equivalent

Fast FCASSystem

strength

Pumped storage –

Cultana120 MW 420 MWs 15 MW 600 MVA

Osborne Cogeneration 180 MW 550 MWs 30 MW 150 MVA

Solar thermal – Davenport 120 MW 660 MWs 60 MW 600 MVA

Battery – Tailem Bend 150 MWExpected to exceed

1,000 MWs (FFR)75 MW -

Murraylink – Berri 200 MW 40 MW -

Battery – Tailem Bend 150 MWExpected to exceed

1,000 MWs (FFR)75 MW -

Minimum load control

1. Developed by Entura

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Solution has to work for multiple time frames

26

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Key conclusions

27

Although the non-interconnector option is technically viable, it does not

provide the same system security benefits as a second interconnector

The non-interconnector solution also poses additional risks:

□ Although gas fired power stations may not remain economically viable, it is

assumed that the current fleet (or equivalent) will remain available for the planning

horizon of this study

□ The continued growth in rooftop PV installations is leading to the minimum grid

demand approaching zero in the mid-2020s – future rooftop PV installations will

have to be controllable in order to disconnect them under certain operating

conditions when operating as an island – this challenge will be exacerbated without

timely new interconnector development

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PUBLIC Distribution: Public Forum - 18 July 2018

Market benefits assessmentBrad Harrison, Principal Energy Market Analyst

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Market benefits and the RIT-T

29

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Market benefits and the RIT-T

30

Categories of market benefits considered

□ Avoided fuel costs (first order)

□ Avoided generator and storage capital expenditure (second order)

□ Avoided transmission network capital expenditure (Renewable Energy

Zone) (second order)

□ Avoided transmission network capital expenditure (Committed project)

□ Avoided generator fixed costs (second order)

□ Avoided voluntary load curtailment

□ Avoided unserved energy (involuntary load curtailment)

□ Renewable Energy Target penalty

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Scenarios

31

Variable High Central Low

Weighting 25% 50% 25%Electricity demand

(including impact from

distributed energy

resources)

AEMO 2018 EFI strong

demand forecasts plus

potential SA spot load

development of 345 MW

AEMO 2018 EFI Neutral

demand forecasts

AEMO 2018 EFI Weak

demand forecasts

Gas prices – long term $11.87 GJ in Adelaide

($1.68/GJ higher than the

AEMO ISP strong forecast)

$ 8.40/GJ

(AEMO 2017 GSOO Neutral

forecast; $0.77 lower than

AEMO ISP Neutral forecast)

$7.40/GJ

($0.62/GJ lower than the

AEMO ISP weak forecast)

Emission reduction

renewables policy – in

addition to Renewable

Energy Target (RET)

Emissions reduction around

45% from 2005 by 2030

(Federal opposition policy)

Emissions reduction around

28% from 2005 by 2030

(Federal Government policy)

No explicit emission reduction

beyond current RET

Jurisdictional emissions

targets

VRET 25% by 2020 and 40%

by 2025

QRET 50% by 2030

VRET 25% by 2020 and 40%

by 2025

QRET 50% by 2030

VRET 25% by 2020 and 40%

by 2025

QRET 50% by 2030

SA inertia requirement –

RoCoF limit for non-

credible loss of Heywood

Interconnector

1 Hz/s (International

standard)

3 Hz/s (current SA

Government requirement)

3 Hz/s (current SA

Government requirement)

Capital costs 15% higher than central

scenario

AEMO 2016 NTNDP with

some updates from 2018 ISP.

15% lower than central

scenario

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Approach

32

Simplifications were required and where made these have

tended to reduce benefits

These include…

□ Least cost ‘linear’ generator expansion

□ Security constrained economic dispatch

□ Hourly dispatch (not five minutes)

□ 50% Probability of Exceedance (POE) Demand

□ Average heat rates

□ Minimum generation up and down times to manage dispatch

inflexibilities

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System strength

33

Current arrangement

□ Synchronous floor

AEMO constrains on or directs synchronous generators to meet the minimum system

strength requirement

□ Low non-synchronous cap

If the synchronous floor is met but not exceeded, a low cap is applied to non-

synchronous generator output in SA

□ High non-synchronous cap

If the synchronous floor is met and exceeded, a high cap is applied to non-

synchronous generator output in SA

Base case assumptions

□ High non-synchronous cap

□ 2,400 MWs of inertia is provided by synchronous condensers

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Options considered

34

Option DescriptionCapital Cost

($2018 billion)

Option A Non-interconnector $0.131

Option B Qld HVDC $1.8

Option C1 NSW HVDC $0.8

Option C2 NSW 275 kV $1.0

Option C3 NSW 330 kV via Buronga $1.4

Option C3i C3 + series compensation $1.5 (NPV ~$0.9)

Option C4 NSW 330 kV Buronga by pass $1.3

Option C5 NSW 500 kV $2.9

Option D1 Victoria 275 kV $1.2

Option D1i D1 + series compensation $1.2

Note 1: Per annum opex cost

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Weighted net market benefits

35

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200O

ption

A

Op

tion

B1

Op

tion

C1

Op

tion

C2

Op

tion

C3

Op

tion

C3

i

Op

tion

C4

Op

tion

C5

Op

tion

D1

Op

tion

D1

i

$m

, P

V

Weighted(Central 50%, Low 25%, High 25%)

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Gross market benefits – preferred option

36

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Hig

h

Ce

ntr

al

Lo

w

$m

, P

V

Avoided fuel costs Avoided REZ transmission CAPEX

Avoided generator fixed costs Avoided Renewable Energy Target penalty

Avoided Voluntary load curtailment Avoided Unserved energy

Network CAPEX deferral Generator and storage capex deferral

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Central scenario – gross market benefits

37

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Option

A

Option

B.1

Option

C.1

Option

C.2

Option

C.3

Option

C.3

.i

Option

C.4

Option

C.5

Option

D.1

Option

D.1

.i

Non-network

SA-QLD SA-NSW SA-VIC

$m

, P

V

Avoided fuel costs Avoided REZ transmission CAPEX

Avoided generator fixed costs Avodied Renewable Energy Target penalty

Avoided voluntary load curtailment Avoided unserved energy

Network CAPEX deferral Generator and storage capex deferral

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Central – preferred option – gross benefits

38

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

202

4

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

20

31

20

32

20

33

20

34

20

35

20

36

203

7

20

38

20

39

20

40

$m

, P

V

Avoided fuel costs Avoided REZ transmission CAPEX

Avoided generator fixed costs Renewable Energy Target penalty

Voluntary load curtailment Unserved energy

'Network CAPEX deferral' Generator and storage capex deferral

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Low scenario – gross market benefits

39

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Option

A

Option

B.1

Option

C.1

Option

C.2

Option

C.3

Option

C.3

.i

Option

C.4

Option

C.5

Option

D.1

Option

D.1

.i

Non-network

SA-QLD SA-NSW SA-VIC

$m

, P

V

Avoided fuel costs Avoided REZ transmission CAPEX

Avoided generator fixed costs Avoided Renewable Energy Target penalty

Avoided voluntary load curtailment Avoided unserved energy

Avoided network CAPEX deferral Generator and storage capex deferral

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Low – preferred option – gross benefits

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

201

9

202

0

202

1

202

2

202

3

202

4

202

5

202

6

202

7

202

8

202

9

203

0

203

1

203

2

203

3

203

4

203

5

203

6

203

7

203

8

203

9

204

0

$m

, P

V

Avoided fuel costs Avoided REZ transmission CAPEX

Avoided generator fixed costs Renewable Energy Target penalty

Voluntary load curtailment Unserved energy

'Network CAPEX deferral' Generator and storage capex deferral

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PUBLIC Distribution: Public Forum - 18 July 2018PUBLIC Distribution: Public Forum - 18 July 201841

High scenario – gross market benefits

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000O

ption

A

Option

B.1

Option

C.1

Option

C.2

Option

C.3

Option

C.3

.i

Option

C.4

Option

C.5

Option

D.1

Option

D.1

.i

Non-network

SA-QLD SA-NSW SA-VIC

$m

, P

V

Network CAPEX deferral Avoided unserved energy

Avoided voluntary load curtailment Avodied Renewable Energy Target penalty

Avoided generator fixed costs Avoided REZ transmission CAPEX

Avoided fuel costs Unrelated network investments

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High – preferred option – gross benefits

42

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

201

9

202

0

202

1

202

2

202

3

20

24

202

5

202

6

202

7

202

8

202

9

203

0

203

1

203

2

203

3

203

4

203

5

203

6

20

37

203

8

203

9

204

0

$m

, P

V

Avoided fuel costs Avoided REZ transmission CAPEX

Avoided generator fixed costs Renewable Energy Target penalty

Voluntary load curtailment Unserved energy

'Network CAPEX deferral' Generator and storage capex deferral

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Sensitivities

43

Option Description Benefit

Impact

Eyre Peninsula Central demand with SA load increased by 345 MW mining load Up

High gas High scenario gas price of $11.87/GJ applied to the central

scenario

Up

Increased role for

gas

Gas price of $5.91/GJ applied to central scenario Down

RoCoF 1 Hz/s More onerous RoCoF limit applied to the central scenario Up

45% emission

reduction

More onerous emissions reduction applied to central scenario Up

Virtual Power Plant 450 MW virtual power plant assumed from 2020 in metro Adelaide Down

Coal prices Cost of black coal across the eastern seaboard increased by 30

per cent.

Down

Heywood declared

protected

Loss of Heywood interconnector declared a credible event.

Heywood limited to 250 MW in the base case.

Up

The preferred option remains the preferred option and delivers positive

net market benefits under all sensitivities tested

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-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Ce

ntr

al r

esu

lts

Eyre

Pen

sin

sula

Hig

h g

as

Incr

eas

ed

ro

le f

or

gas

Ro

Co

F 1

Hz/

s

45

% E

mis

sio

ns

red

uct

ion

Vir

tual

Po

wer

Pla

nt

Hig

he

r co

al p

rice

s

Hey

wo

od

dec

lare

d p

rote

cte

d

$m

, PV

Option B1 Option C3 Option D1

Sensitivities

44

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Next steps

45

Further alignment with ISP input assumptions

□ Wider gas spread will be retained

AEMO Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) update

expected in late August

□ Consider the potential impact of any new information

Deep dive modelling workshop in mid-August to help inform

submissions

□ Please register your desire to attend – we will send an invitation

□ Nominate any issues you would like covered

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AEMO Integrated System PlanElijah Pack, Manager National Planning, AEMO

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Context

•The National Electricity Law establishes AEMO as the national transmission planner, requiring AEMO to:

• develop a National Transmission Network Development Plan

• provide advice on the development of the grid or projects that could affect the grid;

• provide a national strategic perspective for transmission planning and coordination;

•The Finkel review recommended AEMO develop and Integrated Grid Plan as part of Better system planning, one of the pillars to deliver the key outcomes.

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Renewable Energy Zone (REZ) Candidate Identification

Wind Solar PumpedHydro

Source: DNV-GL Source: DNV-GL Source: ANU

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REZ Candidates

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Key inputs

Resource Quality

• Wind and solar resource data from DNV-GL

Benchmarked against existing projects to validate

Technology

• Technology costs and forward projection of costs primarily from CSIRO – confirmed by AEMO work and stakeholder consultation

• Pumped storage costs from ANU study

• Gas prices from Core Energy adjusted in early years to market prices

• Coal prices from Wood McKenzie

Price relativities appear consistent with observed behaviour and investor interest

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Scenarios and sensitivities

The ISP focuses on seven scenarios/sensitivities:

• Two base cases:• Neutral, and Neutral with storage initiatives.

• Three additional scenarios:• Slow change, Fast change, and High DER.

• Two additional sensitivities to explore key opportunities or risks:

• Increased role for gas, and Early exit of coal-fired generation.

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Key Inputs – NEM Energy Consumption

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

NEM

Opera

tional Consum

ption (G

Wh)

Neutral Fast Change Slow Change

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Key Inputs – SA Energy Consumption

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

201

7-1

8

201

8-1

9

201

9-2

0

202

0-2

1

202

1-2

2

202

2-2

3

202

3-2

4

202

4-2

5

202

5-2

6

202

6-2

7

202

7-2

8

202

8-2

9

202

9-3

0

203

0-3

1

203

1-3

2

203

2-3

3

203

3-3

4

203

4-3

5

203

5-3

6

203

6-3

7

203

7-3

8

203

8-3

9

203

9-4

0

Ener

gy c

onsu

mption (

GW

h)

Neutral Fast Change Slow Change

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Key Inputs – Coal fleet operating life

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Genera

tion capaci

ty (M

W)

Remaining coal generation New South Wales Queensland Victoria

LiddellVales Point

Gladstone

Yallourn

Eraring

Bayswater

TarongCallide B

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A few key insights

• Economic growth and population growth are counterbalanced by energy efficiency and distributed energy resources.

• Maintaining existing coal-fired generation up to the end of its technical life is a key element of a least-cost approach.

• A portfolio approach to replacing thermal generation:• Utility-scale renewable generation, energy storage, distributed energy

resources (DER), flexible thermal capacity including gas-powered generation (GPG), and transmission.

• The crucial role of transmission to connect geographically dispersed renewable generation, establish REZs, and share surplus energy across the NEM

• DER can greatly reduce the total cost of supply, and will benefit from more interconnection.

• Focus on event-based timing and managing risks of unplanned events.

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Projected change in resource mix

Installed capacity by NEM region over the 20-year plan horizon

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NEM Energy Outlook (Results)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Capaci

ty (M

W)

Black coal Brown coal Hydro CCGT

Peaking gas + liquids Biomass Utility Storage Distributed Storage

Wind Utility Solar Rooftop PV Dispatchable Capacity

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20 year integrated development plan

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Group 1

Near-term construction

Maximise economic use of existing resources

59

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Group 2

Developments in the medium termEnhance trade between regions, provide access to storage, and support extensive development of REZs

60

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Group 3

Longer-term developments

Support REZs and system reliability and security

61

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Economic assessment - Neutral

Present value of market benefits for Base development plan (Neutral)

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Economic assessments

The ISP base plan delivers value in all scenarios

ScenarioNet benefits from interconnector upgrades ($ million)

Central cases

Neutral $1,192

Neutral with storage initiatives

$1,249

Scenarios

Slow Change $1,777

Fast Change $1,499

High DER $1,985

Sensitivities

Increased role for gas

$544

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ISP Published

Previously published:

• Consultation Paper

• Consultation submissions &

summary

• Assumptions workbook

Published yesterday:

• ISP report with Appendices

• Input data and results

• Interactive map

64

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Q & A

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Next steps

66

Milestone Timing

Draft report (PADR) published 29 Jun 2018

Public forum (Adelaide) 18 Jul 2018

Technical deep dive modelling workshop Mid-Aug 2018

Submissions due on PADR 24 Aug 2018

Further work to respond to AEMO Integrated

System Plan and stakeholder submissions Aug to Oct 2018

Final report (PACR) End Nov 2018

AER makes ruling on final report By April 2019

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