South African Labour market

#StatsSA

Kefiloe Masiteng

DDG: Population and social statistics

Statistics South African

Presentation to the 5th Expanded Public Works

Programme Summit

Outline

• Current labour market indicators vs NDP targets

• Patterns and trends in labour market

• Development through EPWP

South African Labour Market: Current state vs NDP target

Labour market status in Q2:2016 vs NDP targets

26,6%Unemployment

Rate in Q2:2016

14%2020

NDP target

15,5 million

in Q2:2016

24 million

2030

NDP target

42,5%in Q2:2016

61%2030

NDP target

57,9%in Q2:2016

65% 2030

NDP target

Unemployment Employment Absorption Rate Labour Force

Participation Rate

6%2030

NDP target

Quarterly Labour

Force Survey

Q2:2016

21,2 millionLabour force

15,5 millionEmployed

5,6 millionUnemployed

15,4 millionNot economically

active*

*Of which 2,5 million

were discouraged work

seekers

36,6 millionpeople of working age in

South Africa(15 – 64 year olds)

ILO hierarchy – Employed first then

unemployed and the remainder is NEA

(including discouraged job-seekers).

3 mutually exclusive groups. Cannot be in two

groups at the same timeNDP target 2030

Employment:

24 million

Absorp

tion

Rate

Unem

plo

yment

Rate

Labour market ratesLabour

forc

e

part

icip

ation

Rate

Percentage

point change

Q/Q Y/Y

-0,5 -1,0

NDP target 2030

Participation rate: 65%

Absorption rate: 61%

Unemployment rate: 6%

-0,8 -0,2

-0,1 1,6

The unemployment rate

decreased by

0,1 of a percentage point

to 26,6 % q/q but it is still

1,6 percentage points

higher compared to

same period last year

The Q2:2016 absorption

rate decreased by 0,5 of

a percentage point to

42,5% q/q.25,0%

43,5%

58,1%

26,7%

43,0%

58,7%

26,6%

42,5%

57,9%

Q2:2016 Q1:2016 Q2:2015

Working age population and labour market rates

Between 2008 and 2016

the absorption rate

declined from 59,5% to

57,9%.

The LFPR declined from

46,0% to 42,5% during the

same period, while

unemployment rate

increased from 22,6% to

26,6%.

22,6%

26,6%

46,0%

42,5%

59,5% 57,9%

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

Q2:2008 Q2:2009 Q2:2010 Q2:2011 Q2:2012 Q2:2013 Q2:2014 Q2:2015 Q2:2016

%

Th

ou

sa

nd

Population 15-64 yrs Unemployment rate

Employed / population ratio (Absorption) Labour force participation rate

42,5% of

people of working age in

South Africa were

employed(15 – 64 year olds)

Absorption rate

The Western Cape had the highest

absorption rate

51,9%

32,6% The lowest absorption

rate was recorded in

the Eastern Cape

NDP target 2030

Absorption rate:

61%

Percentage point

change q/q

-0,5

-2,4

0,2

0,3

0,2

-1,5

-0,5

-1,0

-0,7

-0,533,1%

37,2%

37,6%

37,6%

40,5%

41,6%

42,1%

50,5%

54,3%

43,0%

32,6%

36,5%

36,6%

37,1%

39,0%

41,8%

42,4%

50,7%

51,9%

42,5%

EC

KZN

LP

NW

NC

MP

FS

GP

WC

RSA

Q2:2016 Q1:2016

Progress on the implementation of

EPWP to individual labour market

outcome

• In 2009 the Department of Public Works approached StatsSA

to investigate how we can measure the impact of EPWP

• Joint working team was created to develop the instrument

• In 2010 we introduced a module in the QLFS to measure the

impact

• The objective of this module was to measure impact and

relative differences in participation rather than levels of

participation

• Levels of participation are better measured through

administrative records

Background

Extract from the questionnaire

Extract from the questionnaire

Results from the QLFS on EPWP

42.8 47.0 49.7 52.0 52.40.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

%

Awareness about EPWP

In 2011, 42,8% of the working-age population

had heard about EPWP and this increased to

52,4% in 2015

Participation in EPWP and other Job creation programmesby sex

40.7

40.6

39.0

36.9

35.6

59.3

59.4

61.0

63.1

64.4

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Male FemaleOver the period 2011 to

2015 more women

participated in EPWP

and other job creation

programmes compared

to men

In 2015, men contributed

35,6% of the participants

while women

contributed 64,4% of the

participants

Participation in EPWP and other Job creation programmesby age

51.1 42.7 46.7 45.6 44.9

48.957.3

53.3 54.4 55.1

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

15-34yrs 35-64yrs

From 2012 those

aged 35+ had a

bigger share of

participants

compared to the youth

70.7

20.0

8.2

65.6

23.6

10.5

5.1

-3.6

-2.4

Belowmatric

Matric

Tertiary

%

2011 2015 Change

Participation in EPWP and other Job creation programmes

by education

Highest proportion of people who participated in EPWP had qualifications below matric in both 2011 and 2015

89.2

87.4

88.5

84.6

83.3

84.1

10.8

12.6

11.5

15.4

16.7

15.9

Women

Men

Total

Women

Men

Total

20

15

20

11

%

Black/African Other

Note: Other includes Coloured, Indian and White population groups

Participation by population group and sex

Black Africans were

more likely to

participate in

government job

creation

programmes, irrespective of sex

56.9

69.2

17.0

13.7

7.1

7.0

18.9

10.0

2011

2015

Employed Unemployed Discouraged Other NEA

Participation by current labour market status

The majority of those

who participated in

EPWP and other

government

programmes were

currently employed,

While those who were

discouraged from

looking for work

accounted for the

lowest share.

Participation by current labour market status and province, 2015

Almost 70%

of those

who

participated

in the

programme

s were

employed in

2015

54.7

60.5

61.1

61.6

63.1

68.3

69.6

75.5

87.8

69.2

17.2

23.2

24.5

8.3

18.0

21.0

11.5

9.5

3.9

13.7

13.8

3.3

5.7

22.6

12.3

5.5

3.1

3.3

7.0

14.3

13.1

8.7

7.5

6.7

10.7

13.5

12.0

5.1

10.0

LP

GP

NC

NW

FS

WC

MP

EC

KZN

RSA

Employed Unemployed Discouraged Other NEA

Benefits of participating in the programme/project

2012 2013 2014 2015

Per cent

Permanent job 13,8 13,5 9,5 12,4

Own business 3,1 4,1 3,0 4,8

Further training 14,6 13,0 13,5 14,0

Temporary work 49,4 46,0 52,7 47,8

Summary and conclusion

Women were more likely to participate in EPWP or other government job creation

programmes.

Over the period 2012 to 2015, a larger proportion of adults relative to youth participated in

EPWP and other such programmes

Persons with lower levels of education were more likely to participate in these types of

programmes.

A higher proportion of the black African population participated in government job creation

programmes, irrespective of sex.

Over 75% of persons in KZN and EC who participated in the programme were employed

during the survey period, while GP and LP had the lowest proportions of persons

employed who participated in the programmes.

The majority of those who participated in EPWP and other government programmes were

currently employed.

Thank you