South Africa Scenario Pack

SOUTH AFRICA SCENARIOS

January 2010

Whiskey for Free

Building Castles

Red Alert

South Africa 2010

1

Rising Leviathan

Sunday 10 January 2010

CLIMATE

POLITICAL

Out of Balance In-Balance Out of Balance

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Rising Leviathan

Whiskey for FreeRed Alert

Building Castles

The following set of “shock events” was developed through a series of workshops with the AGA Africa management team.

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Shock 1 – Political stability brought about by Free World Mandate. Leads to increased FDI

Shock 2 – HIV/AIDS curbed due to increased spending and efficient programs. Productivity increases in southern Africa.

Shock 3 – Southern African Development Community leads to strong growth in South Africa, which frustrates neighboring countries. SACP and COSATU have less power, which gives higher incentive to invest in SAShock 4 – International friction and collapsing coalitions make Africa and Southern Africa very attractive trading partners.

Shock 1 – Indian and Chinese investment bring about large hydro, wind and solar energy farms. This saves Eskom and increases entrepreneurial spirit in the region.

Shock 2 – Environmentally conscious corporations increase spending on alternative energies, which leads to renewable energy and expands the energy grid deeper into the region.

Shock 3 – Effective HIV/AIDS programs, better education and socially aware political structure makes South Africa a beacon of development.

Shock 4 – Advanced mining techniques brings about neutral mining. South Africa is the cleanest country in Africa

Shock 1 – High level of Taxation and increased debt due to incompetent governing practices, places pressure on South Africa’s political structure and also smothers small entrepreneurship in the country.

Shock 2 – Increased stability in Zimbabwe, combined with political instability in South Africa and increased talks of nationalization, leads to a decrease in foreign investment in South Africa.

Shock 3 – Increased investment from BRIIC countries leads in turn increases foreign workforce in South Africa, leading to massive protests from unions and xenophobic attacks.

Shock 4 – Governmental support of private sector above unions reclaims the trust of Western Foreign investors. Exportation of South African resources and support of foreign investors becomes main governmental concern.

Shock 1 - 6 Million people with aids in Southern Africa, cripples SADC due to flu and infectious disease, weakening workforce.

Shock 2 – Gangs, Protest and border skirmishes lead to Terrorist activity which forces the West to remove themselves from Southern Africa.

Shock 3 - Hot Fusion, zero- loss recycling, and substitute products remove all dependence on Africa’s resources.

Shock 4 – State collapse and feudal dictators bring on war, famine, plagues and mass death. South Africa deteriorates as the region collapses.


CLIMATE

POLITICAL

Out of Balance In-Balance

Sta

ble

Uns

tab

le

Whiskey for FreeRed Alert

Building Castles

Theme: Positive response to climate issues

• High Compliance with International Guidelines• Strong Response to Global Warming• Healthy Environment

Theme: Toxic environment

• Regional Collapse• No Response to Climate Change• Toxic Environmental Situation

Theme: Low political stability

• Failed States• BRIIC Moves In• Moderate Climate Management

South Africa 2030

South Africa 2030

South Africa 2030South Africa

2030

South Africa 2010

Theme: High political stability

• More Democracy• Regional Integration• Improved Civil Structure

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Rising Leviathan


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Scenario I: Rising Leviathan


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Shock 1 – Political stability brought about by Free World Mandate. Leads to increased FDI

Shock 2 – HIV/AIDS curbed due to increased spending and efficient programs. Productivity increases in southern Africa.

Shock 3 – Southern African Development Community leads to strong growth in South Africa, which frustrates neighboring countries. SACP and COSATU have less power, which gives higher incentive to invest in SAShock 4 – International friction and collapsing coalitions make Africa and Southern Africa very attractive trading partners.

Rising Leviathan


The music in the background could be described as a mesh of neo-reggae-rock-funk, but I prefer to call it junk. The music industry has changed for the worse. I remember a time when the world was a place that still lived in reality, where music could be broken down into a select number of genres. These genres made sense, rock sounded like rock, with strong baselines, easy lyrics and fragrant guitar solos...

“A!” Diana pulls A out of his world. “You can’t keep on zoning out, I have to prepare.” Diana mumbles in A's general direction. “And I don't know if you've noticed, but I'm really tense today!”

Ever since Diana returned from South Africa she has been really 'tense'. She has mentioned something about the smog here making it impossible to breathe, and the noise pollution being deafening; not a good sign. I wonder if I should report it. Does it even fall under my portf...

“Seriously!” Diana prompted again, “Can you at least listen to me for five minutes without going off into your own world!?” Her voice fades, dips and rises as the background music interprets A's mood, which only serve to further increase her frustration. “A,” she tries one last time, “please take a hit of R! I want to talk to you and I can't get through if you keep buzzing on TAC.” A sits forward in his egg-shaped single serving chair, picks up an R-inhaler and takes a hit. The world of colour fades away around him as the R takes over his mind, focusing him and stabilizing his mood. Diana sits across from A in her own cream coloured, eggshell chair, preparing herself for the coming test, waiting for A to come back to reality, in full.

“OK, Diana, you have my attention. Tell me, how are the Azanians doing?” A's green-brown eyes suddenly have a keen edge to them, analytical, one could say. “You know they are still called South Africans, that was just a blimp on the radar,” Diana grins. Both of them check their watches, agree that there is still time, and she continues: “South Africa is stronger now than ever before. The South African Communist parties’ legacy will now forever be that they should have jumped ship when the Berlin wall fell. Anyhow, that's all water under the bridge, and as you know... well, do you know? When was the last time we, um, I mean, you, checked in on South Africa?” The question is met with a half smile. “It's been a while, probably ten years now,” A answers. “In that case you have missed a hell of a lot.” She continues unabated.

“I guess we should then start with the dark period, as we call it, between 2010 and 2014, when the political situation in South Africa took a bit of a nosedive. This was when the frictions between the coalition parties of the ANC reached boiling-point, finally cracking in 2014. The ANC split shortly after they won with a mere 60% majority in the election. The DA, under South Africa's very own lady with iron fists, Helen Zille, gained a solid 25 percent. This led to the SACP collapsing in opon itself; believing that it could win against the ANC in the elections, and only managed to gain a weak 8% nationally. It was then that president Jacob Zuma truly took charge of South Africa and opened the borders with neighboring countries, economically. This was seen internationally as the first real steps towards the creation of the Southern African Development Community. This move by Zuma brought the region closer than ever before. Zuma unified the region when he sealed, in 2017, the 'Free World' mandate, which enforced a liberal democratic society upon all of the SADC nations.”

Diana could see A's attentions starting to wander, “OK, so you know all this, I'm just refreshing your memory. I'll only point out that this move changed five important things. Firstly, we saw the political situation in South Africa turn away from compromise politics and corruption to a stable democracy where transparency was paramount in every business transaction. This made it possible for the country to pull large international investors, many of which invested in the Coega port and the surrounding area outside of Port Elizabeth. Rio Tinto, who saw this change in the political climate, reinvested in the area. This move was also partly due to the second point, Eskom. Eskom, after taking a huge beating locally for four years started dropping tariffs in 2014. At the same time the energy industry made it possible for private enterprises to enter their own energy producing solar and wind farms into the energy network. This increased the amount of power available on the grid, which again increased the capacity for economic growth.

“Thirdly we saw the implementation of a new curriculum which focused on teaching children essential skills. The revised curriculum, which taught English as a first language to all students, and only allowed for English examinations to be held, helped to bring the lower echelons of society into the modern age. This had a dramatic impact on the economy. With South Africa's work force being literate, the cultural identity of South Africa became much more unified, which focused the youth on capital accumulation, bringing them out of the townships and into the universities and jobs that their parents could not fill.” Diana took a breath and, as she was about to continue her monologue,

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A interrupted, “Yes, Diana, I know. Then came the improved policing, CCTV's on every corner, and an increased medical budget which made it possible for South Africa to enforce AIDS testing for all patients, along with the creation of an AIDS database which could be accessed by the public. This network made it possible for southern Africa to curb the AIDS pandemic and greatly increased productivity.” The frustration in A's voice was clear: “I have been out of play for a while, but that does not mean I have forgotten what happened. Anyway, you're forgetting the most important part: the details. You might be able to recall the superficial details, but the beauty of why South Africa became a success was in how the most random of factors seemed to give incentive for radical change.”

“Like what?” Diana challenged, without thinking of the terrible ramifications such a manner of questioning might elicit. “Well,” A mused wryly “in 2010 the Soccer world cup took that post-apartheid country on the tip of Africa back into the full focus of the world, and unlike 1995's glorious rugby victory, this time the local side lost their games and gave the world a sneak peek into the many issues the rainbow nation had.” A started playing with his pen. Stopped. Looked up into Diana's eyes and continued. “Di, I'm not sure how the country looks now, but I do remember how hard they were working to get the place patched up after the 2010 soccer fiasco. I also remember that they had the highest AIDS rate in Africa, along with extreme corruption and crime statistics. South Africa also had many other local issues, such as a weak curriculum, xenophobia and a relatively unstable economy.” At this stage A had started drawing, or rather doodling, on the writing pad that lay on the white table next to his chair. The vase/light that also stood on the table gave off a soft, natural, white glow. It played strange shadows across A's face. He gently asked Diana, after a few moments of intense doodling; “So please tell me, how did they managed to turn the country around?”

The question seemed to only shatter Diana's world for a few split seconds; her hand grasped the pen she was holding in her left hand a little tighter, but her training quickly restored her composure for her, and the moment of panic evaporated instantly, melting into a light smile that lit up her soft, slightly blushed face.

“Well A, the details are exactly what made it possible for South Africa so step out of the developing and into the developed. The biggest event, economically, was the Coega port's extreme growth and the creation of export processing zones, along with the formation of SADC (Southern African Development Community), which took a lot of power away from the then very prominent labour unions, such as COSATU, who up until the ANC's split, had a lot of sway in South Africa.” Diana visibly started warming to her topic, with her sentences becoming longer and her voice evening out as she spoke.

She continued, “The move to establish a strong regional body pulled a lot of foreign interest into the region, especially from the Asian powers, the strongest investor being China, who had bought large chunks of Anglo and BHP's shares, owning near majority amounts by 2021. The drive to secure resources could, I guess, be paralleled to the arms race during the Cold War, with both sides, in this case China versus the West, buying up and securing as much of the resource industry as possible.

“The USA, who still had the strongest economy by 2018, then turned their full attention towards securing the southern African manufacturing industry, in an attempt to defer the SADC nations from further supporting Asian markets.” Diana paused for a breath, and said; “Then we had the social movements: now they really played an interesting role in not only Africa, but internationally as well. The social movements that took place over the last ten years changed, and challenged, the world’s perception of South Africa.” She took a sip of the vitamised, purified water on her side-table. A let out a supportive “U-Huh.” Diana resumed her presentation;

“South Africa's most important social change came in 2024 when the AU moved to restrict the legislative power of the SADC. The AU wanted to limit the SADC because of an incident, called the Trident Crisis. Briefly described: In 2020 there was a discovery of oil off the coast of Mozambique. Because of the single monetary and legislative of the SADC, the region believed that they had the right to extract the oil. But the AU, who by this time had increasingly limited oil reserves, needed the financial input the offshore reserve would bring.

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This led to an economic issue which the public quickly took up. In South Africa, specifically the middle class and up reacted strongly by mobilising an interactive, online protest. The AU, under leadership of mostly North African leaders, responded by vilifying the SADC in the African and Middle Eastern press. The repercussions of this were felt very strongly in the SADC, with the region finding a friend in China, who allied with the SADC, promising protection from any AU threats. This was, naturally, only a symbolic protectorate, since there had not been a border war in Africa for many years.”

Diana felt that she had delivered clearly and accurately, took a deep breath and looked A straight in the eyes. He responded with a slightly raised eyebrow and a characteristically true half smile. He finally broke the ear splitting silence by saying, incredibly condescendingly, “And?”

“And, well and, um...” Diana's mind raced for a conclusion, a meaning, a reason for her monologue. “The social change, Diana. What happened S.O.C.I.A.L.L.Y?” He punctured every letter into the air, waited for it to hang a split second too long and then followed with the next. Diana, completely flustered, meekly concluded. “Yes, sorry, socially. As I was saying, South Africa, economically stable for the first time in their history, was now very well aligned with China. This made it possible for the two societies to begin amalgamating discourses. This lead to a strong market orientated, liberal-authoritarian democracy to develop in South Africa and thus also in the SADC region.” Diana smiled as she remembered where she was going with her presentation. “And that is why we saw the SADC region remain strong the last few years, regardless of the international turbulence we have witnessed. For instance, when the EU split into a number of key countries and the USA again severed into North and South, it was believed that the SADC would follow. This did not happen, partly due to Chinese investment which supported the local industry and kept the economy afloat.”

Diana cleared her throat and waited for A to report on her performance. The ten minutes allocated for her presentation was done, and she felt far less confident now than she had before she had started.

“Well, Diana Rietz Stibbons. Your performance was apt, but you need to work on you content and presentation. Focus more on where you are going; your thoughts need to follow. And lastly, regarding contemporary South Africa, it is important that you mention the four primary reasons for South Africa's improvement. They are, as you inferred, but failed to mention explicitly; the China invasion, AIDS-TB and Malaria being mostly solved, SADC unifying, and finally the international troubles which split the EU and North America. Examiners will want to hear these things, Di.”

He said her name with an uncertain amount of finality. The 29 year old mentor for the liberal arts was done mentoring for the day. He picked up the TAC inhaler and slipped back into a world of silent sedation, silently thanking Phizer for finally making mind altering substances safe. Diana, watched him with some indignation, stood up, carefully stroked the creases out of her soft green skirt and left. She kept telling herself, as she stole one final glance of A, tripping in his eggshell chair; What does he know anyway!?

R = methylphenidate (inhalable and ritalin)TAC = a safe drug designed by phyzer in 2018 that combines the halucinagenic properties of Lysergic acid diethylamide with the sensationary experience of Tetrahydrocannabinol.

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Scenario II: Building Castles


Building Castles

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Shock 1 – Indian and Chinese investment bring about large hydro, wind and solar energy farms. This saves Eskom and increases entrepreneurial spirit in the region.

Shock 2 – Environmentally conscious corporations increase spending on alternative energies, which leads to renewable energy and expands the energy grid deeper into the region.

Shock 3 – Effective HIV/AIDS programs, better education and socially aware political structure makes South Africa a beacon of development.

Shock 4 – Advanced mining techniques brings about neutral mining. South Africa is the cleanest country in Africa


Two cars pull into the driveway of a large mansion, situated just outside Khayelitsha. The paint on the window frames is peeling, and a gutter hangs half-on half-off across the side wall. The beddings and grass are covered in weeds. The Volvo climbs out and walks over to the shabby looking Audi A3. Damien, the Audi, rolls down his window and smirks at the Volvo, Juliet. “So, Jules, what do you think?” he enquires “A pretty nifty base of operations, right?” Juliet gives him a blank stare, “how the hell are we going to afford to renovate and sustain this place?” she asks through clenched teeth. “What!? Its just a little paint job, nothing serious!” He responds meekly. “It’s a frikkin castle, Damien!” Juliet shouts, pointing towards the house.

Damien sighs, gets out of his charcoal coloured Audi and stands next to Juliet. The couple, wearing matching coloured clothes, look like tourists, stranded in a remote, slightly derelict, part of the world. Juliet's expression conveys the idea that she had somehow wandered off The Beginners Guide to Cape Town and was now in a never before seen part of the world, which she would not have believed existed, were it not for the undeniable fact that she was in fact standing right in front of it. Damien's expression, on the other hand, can be compared to the utter complacence one would see in the face of a Canadian seal, just before the baton is swung.

Damien puts his arm around Juliet and pulls her closer. At first she hesitates, but her momentary anger washes away, allowing her to be drawn closer to her fiancé. “Listen, Jules, honey, we can do this. We have to dream big, otherwise we won't ever get out of this rat race were living. The economy is looking great at the moment and we have put enough money away. And if we fail, then to hell with it. We can always go back to our previous jobs.” Damien smiles at Juliet, “well,” he sniggers, “you can. I doubt Steve will want me back after I called him an inbred political concubine. Anyway, this is our dream, our passion, all we need to do is convince the rest of the world to give us money.”

A month later the two had set up office in the mansion. They had turned one of the many rooms in the large house into an office. A lazy ceiling fan blew humid air on the couple as they sat in-front of their computers, working rapidly at a business strategy.

“O.K. I've found Anglo’s marketing executive's email address, all we need to do is send him our business strategy, motivation for why we are starting an orphanage, and what our long and short term goals are. Easy as pie.” Damien, who worked for an NGO, before deciding to start his own, knows enough about the inner working of the non-governmental structure to bull his way into a meeting, which is normally where he shines. He is good at meetings, not because of his handsome face, or because of his expertly orchestrated presentation. It is due to his simple minded desire to help, which radiates from him. No-one has yet been capable of refusing him his dream, which usually meant they had to relinquish some cash. Not that the pittance he asked for would dent, or even scratch, the bank. Also, it left his donors with a feeling of goodwill, and in some instances, a nice shiny mug, something most executives really like.

“So how are we going to approach this?” Jules asks. “Well. I think we should just tell our story, you know, a brief introduction and then explain our business plan. Large corporations enjoy business plans.” Damien shoots a half smile in Jules' way. He opens Outlook express, clicks on 'new mail' and types in, [email protected].

“Jules, should we begin the email with, I don't know, Dear Sarah?” Damien asks, “or is that too informal?”“No, rather write, To Whom It May Concern, so that way she can send it to anyone and it will still seem personal.” Juliet responds. “OK, here goes…;”

To whom it may concern.

My wife, Juliet and I, established an NGO in December of this year. Our dream is to create a lifestyle centre, which is both a home for local orphans, and an example of a self sustaining micro community. I am approaching you in the hope that you may find our mission close to your heart, as well as your corporate identity. Our NGO is registered as 'Upliftment', serial number 22220908.

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mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Our History

In 2012, when I was still a part of the Beating Heart Foundation in Cape Town, I spent a large part of the year working in close relation with the people of Khayelitsha. What I took away from that experience was that there are many strong individuals in the area who are more than willing to sacrifice their time to help uplift their community, but also that there were many restrictions preventing them from doing so. One such limitation is the abject poverty they live with every day.

The people I came into contact with on my daily trips through Khayelitsha brought me face to face with realities I struggled to comprehend at the time, and still find harrowing to this day. For example, one morning when I went into the township, a young woman came to me, knowing that I was a person whom she could trust. She took me to her shack near the middle of the township. Needless to say, I was rather hesitant, but determined I went forth. In her shack she showed me her child, who must have been about four years old, lying on the floor, a thin blanket underneath him and a handout PEP store blanket spread over his form. His small head was covered in scars. The mother told me about her husband who had given her, and thus her son, HIV/AIDS. She also explained that the AIDS programs in Khayelitsha were not effective, and that there was no hope in saving the thousands who have AIDS, as the people were uneducated.

This experience, along with many similar ones, taught me to respect life, regardless of upbringing. That is why I have a desire to create an orphanage which will take the children, left behind by unfortunate social circumstances, and educate them to according to their capacities.

My wife on the other hand has not been subjected to such harsh realities, but tertiary education obtained from the University of the Witwatersrand, and her relativly safe life in the business world grants her the knowledge this NGO needs in order to remain economically viable.

Our business model, which she set up, consists of four elements. The first of these is the start-up program which we will discuss in the following section.

Phase one

As you are aware, in 2014 India and China invested 4 billion rand into the restructuring of the South African electricity framework. The largest part of this project was the creation of multiple hydro, wind and solar projects which now accounts for 40 per cent of South Africa’s electricity supply. Our mission is to become part of this grid on a small scale, meaning that we aspire to creating a sustainable power network in our community, fuelled by alternative power sources. This is a project which will require large capital investment. The capital will go to the construction of solar and wind farms on the land we currently occupy. We will then, after we have created a sustainable energy network, extend our project by installing wind and solar power generators in every neighbourhood of Khayelitsha.

The impact of the India- China power structure has already greatly decreased South Africa’s ‘dirty’ energy industry. It has also served to bring in much needed capital into the economy, helping investors and entrepreneurs, who had become over-burdened by the old failing system, to see hope for the future. A future which is becoming brighter every day, especially when one considers that the expansion of our alternative energy network, which is now fuelling most of Namibia and Zimbabwe’s grids, will only further increase foreign investment.

Foreign investment has served to make South Africa one of the cleanest countries in the world, which, considering we were the dirtiest country in Africa only twenty years ago, is a huge feat. But this movement needs to take one last turn. We need to revitalise our townships, and we believe that alternative energy is the first step towards reaching this goal.

We believe further that there is still a great deal of South Africa’s population who suffer under the burden of unnecessary refuse. This is seen clearly when one takes a gander at the terrible conditions most township dwellers still live under. Many of them still have concrete long-drops, no clean running water, and overflowing rubbish dumps; a situation which causes the spread of disease and lowers the moral of the community. There is no conceivable reason why these people have to suffer. Municipalities have enough money in their budgets to lay the necessary pipelines, and there exist many programs which will help make every household in Khayelitsha as green as possible. One of these projects, Think Green, is headed by your company.

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We thus ask that you firstly to consider helping us by creating such a sustainable environment in our immediate proximity, which will make it possible for phase two.

Phase Two

The education system in South Africa has increased greatly in the last ten years. This was made possible by the Ubuntu curriculum which took into consideration the many faces of South Africa. This model, as efficient and well structured as it is, does not, however, penetrate the townships of South Africa. This has left thousands of young minds without any possible way of achieving matriculation.

That is why we are hoping that you would invest in our orphanage, which will serve on the one hand as support to the unfortunate orphanages in the area that are overrun by children, and under funded by government. And on the other hand, it will also educate these young minds, instilling in them the knowledge that they are part of a caring, conscious community, who want them to achieve greatness, something they will not be able to grasp if they are only ever subjected to the harsh realities of township dwelling.

What is important to acknowledge here is that the Ubuntu system does make allowances for private run institutions and that they will, if they see your stamp of approval, and thus support, help our orphanage to become a shining beacon of educational hope.

On a different note, I must acknowledge that you and your fellow corporate entities have done amazing things for the public of this country. I recall how amazed we were, at my previous NGO, when we heard that the corporate structure of South Africa, a rather distant entity up until then, would be investing large portions of their profits into the education recreation project which is now called Ubuntu. I believe that were it not for your investment, we as a nation would still be walking in an unlit educational path; which would have been a dire situation for this country. We now have an adult literacy level of 89%, which is amazing. Thank you for that.

We are finally becoming a unified, developing nation, as opposed to the divided zebra striped one at the turn of the century.

Phase 3

The third part of our social upliftment program lies in the creation of an anti-retroviral hotspot which will serve as a small clinic. Our aim with this is to take the newly formed AU healthcare model, which focuses on giving every citizen primary healthcare, and applying it in this township. It is already within our means to create such a centre, with the support of governmental funding, but we would prefer it if we could remain affiliated to a single donor company.

Our dream with such a centre would be to give not only HIV/AIDS medicine, but also to educate the pregnant mothers regarding foetal alcohol syndrome and other basic heath issues. We aspire to also become a ‘safe-haven for battered women and children, where we will provide group sessions aimed at making it possible for the community to overcome its stigmas regarding gender roles in relationships, and also the abandon the use of Muti and other traditional methods of healthcare deemed unsafe.

This has, as I have mentioned, been done in most of the affluent African countries, and they have reported great success with similar programs. We believe South Africa is far behind with regards to its healthcare system, and that is something we strongly wish to address. The Southern African Development Community, which is still a rather impotent body, regionally, has drafted a paper in which it gives the outlines for how such a centre should be run. We will use this paper as a basis for our healthcare model. We believe that the future of SADC is still undervalued, and that is why we will push for all the clinics in the area to adopt a similar structure.

“Wow, ok, I think I’ve got some good stuff down. I’m just not sure how we should end it. This is still just the proposal, so it’s not like I can start sending them the details regarding our orphanage, or the schematics for the solar or wind generators.” Damien sighs. The pressure of what he is attempting has started to weigh down on his mind, making his shoulders feel physically pressured. “Honey, I think you’re doing just fine. Just finish it by telling them about how well their doing, economically. Remind them that they are making a killing, with their new mining methods. What’s it called again, you told me about it last night...” Juliet smiles at her soon to be husband, who she trusts with everything, except for the bank balance. That’s her area, her domain.

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“Oh, yeah, chemical mining. It’s really amazing, do you know that they have made billions by just going into all the extinct lateral mines and chemically dissolving the small amounts of gold left in the crevices. So they definitely have cash lying around.” Damien’s mind races into the deep pockets of resource industry, musing at the world he could create with such immense wealth. Juliet on the other hand is now staring at Damien, hoping that the he knows what he is doing, because she felt uniquely out of her depth. It is a position a woman of calibre was not very fond of, to put it kindly.

“Damien, darling, why don’t you finish that proposal? Its nearly day’s end.” Juliet’s words, soft and generous had a strangled edge to them. She could feel herself drowning in a wave of tensed up nerves fuelled by an anxious personality. “Um, sure, what was the last phase in our business plan again?” Damien ventured, puppy-dog-eyes turned on full.

“It’s called sucking up and concluding.” She says in a humourless tone. Damien’s vacant expression forces her to continue; “you need to finish with returns. Tell them that they need to invest in our project because it serves as permanent advertising, along with the possibility of future recruitment. Also you need to mention that they will be seen as a pro-poor, socially-aware, and considered generally nice. Which is something any large corporation, especially one that exploits a nations natural resources, want to be seen as.” She looks at her fiancé and smiles a pursed lipped, accountant smile. Damien sets to work finishing his proposal. He inserted his lovely fiancés information and ended with the following paragraph...

I believe we have laid down our dreams and desires. All that remains to be seen is whether you find our mission aligned with your corporate identity. The political climate at the moment can only be described as fluid, which has made our nation a compassionate body, caring for all its members. You as, a corporate entity, have also paved the road towards a safe environment. Such neutral mining, which preserves the ecology surrounding your mines, has made South Africa a leader in the fight against pollutant economies. I commend you for that. It is for this reason that I believe we will find a place in your structure. We believe that the time has come to fill the social gap you have left open, while fighting the environmental battle.

Yours, truly in the fight for a better world,

Damien Hurt and Juliet Sizakele Mbeki.

With that Damien sends his letter, shoots a prayer along with it, and gives his soon to be wife a charming smile. “Here’s to hoping,” He said. Juliet could only muster a smile in return.

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15

Scenario III: Whiskey for Free


Whiskey for Free

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Shock 1 – High level of Taxation and increased debt due to incompetent governing practices, places pressure on South Africa’s political structure and also smothers small entrepreneurship in the country.

Shock 2 – Increased stability in Zimbabwe, combined with political instability in South Africa and increased talks of nationalization, leads to a decrease in foreign investment in South Africa.

Shock 3 – Increased investment from BRIIC countries leads in turn increases foreign workforce in South Africa, leading to massive protests from unions and xenophobic attacks.

Shock 4 – Governmental support of private sector above unions reclaims the trust of Western Foreign investors. Exportation of South African resources and support of foreign investors becomes main governmental concern.


The door swings open, allowing a wind to sweep over the gas lamps in the room. It is followed by a man who lifts his face to the shivering light that only calms to its dusky glow after the door clicks shut. The barman looks up, slightly intrigued by the sight of the newcomer’s clothes. He smiles at me, remarking that we have royalty in our midst. The few other diners also turn to see this man who is clearly dressed above this occasion. He nods in a few directions in recognition of the other customers in the room and settles at the bar close to where I’m sitting. When he orders a Johnny Walker I see a couple at a nearby table glance at each other, clearly impressed. I whistle under my breath, apparently loud enough for the man to hear me. He swings around in his seat and asks, with a smile, what I’m drinking. “Oh, a local brew” I answer, half extending my glass in his direction. “I’d have to sell my liver if I wanted to drink imported liquor these days, and then anything else would just go straight through me, so what’s the point.” He smiles at my humorous attempt. “But you must know that?” I continue, slightly discouraged. He answers in what I think must be some sort of Spanish accent that he’s not from here. He explains that he works for a Brazilian company which is interested in investing in our country, and he has been sent to investigate the current social climate in the country, or something like that.

He enquires after my drink again. “Well, as I was saying, imported stuff has become much to lush for the regular Joe, so people have started to make their own concoctions, behind closed doors, if you catch my drift.” He nods. “Not that its anything new, Moonshine’s been around, you know, but nowadays most bars have their own brew to sell.” I spot the outline of a cigarette packet in his pocket and I start to feel my fingers tingle with the need to hold one. He seems to follow my glance and offers me one with a smile. With a flick of his lighter he provides me with a long forgotten pleasure. “Man,” I exhale with satisfaction, “it’s been a while. Cigarette prices have been going up for years, and when it was R20, R30, R40, I could still manage to keep smoking. But now its R150 a packet and that’s for the cheap stuff.” He lets out a low whistle. “I know, I know. I have a family at home so it’s not worth it. I guess it’s better for me anyway, that’s what my wife says. But a smoke would be nice every now and then when the pressures on, you know. When I get tense, is what I mean.” The man nods again, glances at my almost empty glass and asks if he could buy me a whiskey. I smile at my luck.

He asks what type of tension I experience. “I run a restaurant just a couple of blocks from here. A friend of mine who had it before me, well, let’s just say his cash flow slowed pretty drastically after some bad financial calls, so he sold the place to me for dirt cheap.

It was a good time to invest. The country still got lots of tourist since the 2010 world cup. Man, what a crazy year that was. And then about two years later the Zim president, Mugabe, finally kicked the bucket.That guy was crazy. I had a couple of Zim immigrants working in my kitchen. It’s horrible what he had done to that country. Anyway, so he left the building and —“That caused an increase in foreign investment into Zimbabwe,” he remarks.“Yeah,” I reply, encouraged by his interest, and maybe a little by the drink in my hand that sometimes threatens to swing right out of my glass when a particularly violent gesture punctuates a point in my story. “Yeah, I guess other countries would have wanted to invest…” The man leans forward, resting his elbows on the bar top. “You know, it’s a shame that they hadn’t established a strong southern African region like SADC. Southern African Development Community.” He adds at the puzzled expression on my face. “Many possible investors at the time rather opted for North African countries like Kenya and Nigeria because of their political stability and significantly larger populations.”

“But Zim still got a lot of interest” I ventured, vaguely recalling the newspapers of the time, “which drew a lot of interest into the surrounding region, South Africa included. Together with the world cup hype things were looking up and up. So I thought it would be a good time to invest in a little place of my own. But since 2012 electricity prices became real harsh. Like R1000 for a normal household, you know. And it kept rising. A lot of the restaurants around here switched over to gas, since it was much cheaper. I switched to gas in 2013, I think…yeah, must have been cause that was the year Zuma was elected for his second term. And that was a crazy election ‘cause before that the SACP, the Youth League and Cosatu worked together – ““The tripartheid alliance?” he suggests.

“Yeah yeah.” I reply. “But in 2013 COSATU and SACP broke away to form the Labour Party. That really split the vote so the ANC only got 40 percent, or something, of the vote and the Labour Party and the DA, who formed an alliance with COPE, each got roundabout 30 percent. DA took Western Cape Province again and to everyone’s surprise the Labour Party won in Eastern Cape. Man, politics became a real showdown, with premiers from the provinces barking at one another like mad dogs. But the Labour Party became pretty popular in the following couple of years. They said stuff like our economic system was built on the exploitation of the labourer and that it still served a white bourgeois upper class while the labourers themselves starved. They said the people, not the bourgeoisie, should own the product of their labour. They often promised that if they were elected to govern the people they would make sure the land was given back to them.”

17


The man nods silently over his whisky: “Nationalisation”, he says, taking a sip. “That’s why Anglo decided to have dual headquarters, one here, one in Kenya, I think it was” he says with a comprehensive smile. “If the Labour Party won the following election in 2017 they would have taken measures to nationalize the mines, so that it would have been a great risk for companies like Anglo. That’s why their attention started drifting to Kenya where they could be sure of property rights.”“Yeah. The Labour Party didn’t win that election, but they had a strong voice so many businesses got uneasy at that time, and so did the farmers. I have a friend who owned a dairy farm and he had to sell his farm because of the Land Reclamation Act in 2016. He told me that his biggest worry was the fact that he had had that farm in his family for three generations, and the man who would get the farm had no skills in the trade. He told me of many farmers in his area who said the same thing. Their fears were founded on the farms reclaimed years earlier and which had, by 2016, lost up to 50 percent of produce because of bad farming. But right next door Zimbabwe was looking up, what with all the foreign investment, but since they had chased out all the white farmers years back, they had a drastic need for people to train Zimbabweans in efficient farming techniques. My friend was one of the farmers who were offered land in Zimbabwe. What was I getting at again with Zimbabwe?”

“You were talking about your restaurant,” he replies.“Right, right. Well, many of our farmers went to Zimbabwe. And many of our farms saw drastic decreases in production, so that a lot of our produce had to be imported. Zim, ironically, was a primary exporter. So for a small business like mine, things got tough since food prices steadily climbed, which meant I lost customers because I had to push my prices up. But still the government did little to solve our problems. They made enough noise; between the DA, ANC and Labour Party it was practically a circus of name calling and blame-shifting. So between them nothing was produced apart from new material for the newspapers to run with. Governmental departments were as badly run as ever, worse even because by 2016 years of bad management had begun to seep through the cracks. The Eastern Cape saw little improvement under the Labour party; they still had roads with potholes the size of cars, corrupt municipalities and appalling health care. The province, like most others, had accumulated so much dept over the years that there were too many holes in the dam wall and not enough fingers to stop the leaks. And as TB, Malaria and HIV/AIDS increased the pressure on our health care, the country saw many Doctors and Nurses seek better wages overseas. Our public hospitals today even are really something to write a horror story about.

Upon that, violence just kept surging, even with Zuma’s shoot to kill policy. In fact, I think that actually made it worse. Many people in this county are sceptical about the police, since there’s been so much talk of police corruption. Some communities form neighbourhood watches, but these groups often tend to take the law into their own hands and prosecute criminals in very violent ways. A big clash broke out between such a group and the police one year…now when was it?”“It was somewhere in 2019, I think,” he ventures. “It was on international news.”“Right. It happened in Soweto. I don’t know how it started, something about a man who was innocently shot by a police officer and a group went after the policeman and there was retaliation. It was ugly. Bloody. And then all over the country police were being attacked in townships. Crime was nuts in those days. You’ll see most of the richer people in our country live in security complexes. The popularity of these grew immensely. Some even have their own shopping centres, so people don’t have to go into a city to buy groceries or eat dinner. People are scared, what with so many hijackings in the cities. I don’t blame them, but it’s hard when you run a restaurant outside of these complexes. Man, I had one friend who owned an Italian restaurant a couple of kilometres outside of Cape Town. Eskom rationed electricity in the suburbs for a while because they wanted to keep the cities, shall we say, empowered. They would cut the power of a part of a suburb for, say, half a day. The electricity cuts’ times were published in local newspapers, but this meant that criminals knew when it would be lights out, so to speak. When the power cut where my friend’s restaurant was, a group of men stormed the place, shot the manager and made off with all the night’s earnings. That’s just one example of the break-ins one heard of.

That makes me think of another friend who had a shop in Canal Walk, a mall outside Cape Town and she had to move to some dodgy area after the mall closed down in 2020.”“The mall closed? Why?”“A couple of them closed. It became crazy expensive just keeping the lights on at the mall; those things are glittering palaces. It was an easy cost to cover when customers kept visiting, but then the newspapers had all these stories about robberies in and around the malls, so people became afraid. Mini-malls, as I said, were developed in the security complexes, taking business as their popularity grew. Canal walk, because it was so big, closed much later than many other, smaller malls in its vicinity.

18


“It must have been tough for starting entrepreneurs to find their place,” he sighed. I nodded in agreement. He calls the barman towards us and asks if he can see the menu. “And this friend of mine,” I continue as the barman walks off, “the one who had to move shop, she told me it was really difficult to compete with the amount of Chinese and Indian dealerships in the area. She explained that they could sell their product for cheaper because it was cheaper to manufacture in their countries. I think she also went out of business in the end.” The barman returns after a little pause. The man orders a soybean burger and two more whiskeys.

“But from what I understand,” he says, “South Africa has had quite a bit of foreign interest from India and China, as well as from Indonesia and Brazil.” I reply that I know very little about foreign politics to be able to confirm his views, but I know of a steady increase in Eastern and Indian car manufacturers in South Africa since the 2008/9 recession. He nods approvingly at my example. “After the economic recession in 2008/2009, growing economies like China and India, found it much easier to bounce back, compared to Western counterparts. They were much more willing to risk investment in a country like South Africa. And when western companies became tentative of investing in South Africa, after talks began of nationalisation that increased since 2013, smaller companies from the BRIIC countries, which are China, Russia, India, Brazil and Indonesia, were more willing to take a chance. I think the greatest investments were made in Namibia, but there had also been increasing interest in Zimbabwean mines after the discovery of deep resources in the great dyke, said to carry potential as a rich source of gold. Many of these companies found similar interest in the development of the South African mining industry and the excavation of new mines, to which they easily got tenders, since India and China, for example, gave great support for the ANC in their struggle against the Apartheid government and could build on that political trust.”“I remember that being a reason for a big union strike.” I interrupted. “The papers said that COSATU was unhappy because the foreign companies that were established did not comply with South African labour laws, mainly employing foreign labourers or demanding longer work hours at a minimum wage. But the government did not do enough to regulate, since these companies helped to strengthen the South African economy.“And the companies were listed overseas so it would have been very difficult to fine them.” I sigh. “Even if they could, nothing would have happened since our government is overly beaurocratic and our legislative system overly burdened so that any such case would have taken years and years to complete. The government’s inability to manage the parties involved in these disputes caused many problems.

The increase in foreign companies naturally increased the foreign population in the country, which meant less work for South Africans. In reaction, COSATU launched massive protests.”“That happened in 2025 right?” he asks “Our company had wanted to invest at that time, but decided to postpone until we were sure of the political climate.”“That’s right. Our government had so much dept due to bad management in the various departments that the foreign interest was a vital source of economic support. But municipalities were so poorly run that people still waited for proper housing and the jobs that the government had promised them since 2009 but, naturally, had failed to deliver. When competition for jobs increased, people became frustrated, so much so that xenophobic attacks broke out in 2025 –”“And this meant a decrease in foreign investment, which again further slowed the already marginal economic growth, which translated to about 2 to 3 percent growth per anum.” He falls silent as the barman sets the food on the bar top.

I wait until he is a couple of bites into his burger when I continue to muse:“That must have been why the government paid so little attention to COSATU’s efforts. They posed much less of a threat after the 2021 elections where they won only 5 percent of the vote. And with the increase in foreign labour, companies could still manage when their South African labourers went on strike.”“That’s true.” He replies. “The government, according to my research, aligned itself with the private sector to a much greater degree than with the people. If I remember correctly they called it the Manuel Heritage, making South Africa a liberal capitalistic nation”“I remember the government would tell COSATU and other unions like NUM that they were working on ways to solve the worker’s problems, but on the other hand they encouraged the development of the private sector and the strengthening of foreign interest. People soon realised that the unions had lost the greater part of their political inset.” He swallows quickly; sips a bit of whiskey.

“The decrease in the power of the unions motivated the private sector even further,” he explains, “since companies were reassured that talks of nationalisation that had spread since the early 2010’s were simply modes of pacifying the workers class. This also meant companies like Anglo and others from Western economies felt greater security in their investment in South Africa so that, apart from the strengthening of BRIIC countries, Western interest also increased.”

19


“You know, my wife calls it the second enslavement of Africa. She says that our dependence on foreign countries means they can control us. I guess it’s true because these days exportation of our country’s wealth has become the government’s main concern and our mining and industrial sectors are dominated by foreign companies. Well, that’s what my buddy Ted, who’s an economy tutor, complained about the other day. But the foreign investment in the country also allowed for a company like Eskom to make a turn-around. Many researchers from overseas came to South Africa to study and develop energy efficient solutions relevant to our climate. It meant an increase in cheap solar panels that people on an average salary could install in their homes and also greater development of wind farms. Also, since the Garden Rout Disaster of 2010, when the area was without water for almost a year, several efforts have been made for developing ways to recycle water, not just in areas of draught, but all over the country. About five years ago, Cape Town municipality started to encouraged people to put water tanks in their yards so that homes could rely on their own water supply. They brought out a statistic last week to say that 50 percent of houses in Cape Town suburbs have a water tank and the average household has dropped water usage by 30 percent. There has also been a rise in independent researchers who come to South Africa and Zimbabwe to study solutions for Malaria. My wife’s brother worked on one such project since 2015. He explained that they install what he called a phototonic fence, which is basically a parameter surrounding houses that shoots mosquitoes from the air with lasers. The laser can distinguish between the harmless male and the female mosquito, which bite, and by killing the female they can stop Malaria being spread in an area. I read statistics saying that in 2029 the amount of malaria cases in the southern Africa was 30 percent lower than in 2010.

He sends the empty plate with the barman, wipes his mouth on a serviette and stretches his arms. “That was great,” he says after taking another sip of whiskey. “You never really told me about your restaurant” he adds with a slight smile. “Guess we got carried away.” “I guess in context my problems don’t look too bad,” I laughed. “I mean, when has a little competition really hurt someone? I’ll just have to work harder, you know?” He smiled at me and offered another cigarette. “No no, I have to get home. I like a happy wife, if you catch me.” He laughs for the first time. “Say, can you give me directions to the nearest Quick-change station? My car’s battery is almost depleted so I need to swop it for a charged one before I head to my hotel.” “There’s a big one just up the road.” I explain. He stands up to shake my hand in thanks. I tell him not to mention it, thank him for the drinks and head for the exit.What a strange night, I think as I swing my coat over my shoulders and pull the door open, causing the light behind me to shiver and bend.

20


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Scenario IV: Red Alert


Red Alert

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Shock 1 - 6 Million people with aids in Southern Africa, cripples SADC due to flu and infectious disease, weakening workforce.

Shock 2 – Gangs, Protest and border skirmishes lead to Terrorist activity which forces the West to remove themselves from Southern Africa.

Shock 3 - Hot Fusion, zero- loss recycling, and substitute products remove all dependence on Africa’s resources.

Shock 4 – State collapse and feudal dictators bring on war, famine, plagues and mass death. South Africa deteriorates as the region collapses.


James, a budding journalist, was seated in his swivel chair, facing his beloved Intel computer. His computer, in turn, was sitting on her table, had greeted him and was awaiting her master’s command. “Computer, connect me to Dr. Bjorn Young please.” James usually referred to his computer as Lilly, or L, for short. But today was an important day, and he could not risk any misinterpretations. The reason he called her Lilly had to do with a very pretty girl poor James could never seem to catch, but this is not that story.

“Connecting … Sir?,” The computer prompted, “I detect an elevated heart rate from you, would I be correct in assuming that it has something to do with this Dr. Young?” Lillie’s even voice belied no ulterior motives or a hidden agenda, her questioning was fuelled simply by the unnervingly inquisitive nature any thinking inanimate object would have. “Yes, it has everything to do with him.” James replied flatly, “Are we connected yet?” “Dr. Bjorn Young, you are connected to James Xtebe.” Her voice rang on both sides. James eagerly spoke first, “Morning, um, Sir. How are you today?” “Oh, please, call me Dr. Young. And I’m very well, thank you for asking.” Dr. Young replied. Then an awkward silence rang in the air for a few split seconds. “Um, yes, alright. I’m very pleased to be able to talk to you today. As you are aware, I am from Reflective Media, and will be recording this interview. Is that ok?”James asked.

“Yes, yes, that’s fine.” The Doctor replied in a slightly impatient tone. James wondered if it had something to do with his German ancestry. “I would like to talk to you about the current political, social, economical and environmental climate we are witnessing in Africa, and specifically in South Africa. So, to –”

“You don’t waste time with superficialities,” Dr. Young interrupted before James could complete his sentence; “ha-ha!” Dr. Young crackled over James’ 7.1 imbedded surround sound system. In James’ head he could hear the sound of ice cracking, he had hardly started the interview and he was already starting to like the doctor.

“Ha. Yeah, all business this side, sorry. I’m a little behind with this article. Sorry.” James stuttered.

“No problem. Where do you want to start? Or should I just talk and then you can take whatever it is you like?” Dr. Young’s age belied his wit. “No, lets rather just stick to topics, otherwise I’ll spend the whole day talking to you, and you don’t want me keeping you from your work, now do you?” Taunted Dr. Young. His white beard played around a flash smile.

“Well, let’s start with the social factor, then.” James started. “What, according to you, played the biggest role in shaping the face of Africa?”

“Well, James, as Che Chavara said in the previous century, ‘Africa is the history of failure.’ To isolate one element would be effortless; we could very easily declare that HIV/AIDS killed Africa. I remember reading that in 2010 that twenty four million people in Sub-Saharan Africa lived with HIV/AIDS. That number only increased with time. As we now know, the impact on the region was devastating socially, economically and politically. As the AIDS epidemic spread, communities became less productive, which lead to further collapse on all fronts. The slow cancer that ate away at Africa’s productivity also deteriorated its other sectors. Malaria, TB, Cholera, and several other curable primary diseases, killed millions of people….” Dr Young frowned slightly and then interrupted his own story.

“James, you have to remember that southern Africa is unique in Africa in that most of the countries in the region are still ruled by the nationalist parties that fought against colonialism. These ruling parties – be they Zanu-PF in Zimbabwe, the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) in Tanzania, the Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo), the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), the ANC in South Africa or the South West Africa People’s Organization (Swapo) in Namibia – believed that they were somehow entitled to the countries they now ruled. This made it possible for them to justify the most horrendous behavior. On a small scale we could see this trend emerge in South Africa when the elites continued to push for BEE and Affirmative action. This was a problem because BEE only benefitted the black elites, which served to further entrench the inequalities inherited from the past and exacerbated new inequalities among the black population.” Dr. Young paused and gave poor James an imploring look, not sure if the young journalist had really understood what he had said. Realizing this, James said, a little apologetically, “Its O.K if I don’t immediately get everything you’re saying, I’ll just re-watch this tape, please continue…” The Doctor smiled and went on.

“Alright. So I’vementioned that in southern Africa the elites chose to pursue money, instead of social welfare and upliftment. This was made visible by the badly run HIV/AIDS clinics and the unorganized availability of governmental anti-retroviral drugs, and as I’ve mentioned, the workforces’ low level of production.

23


This happened in early part of the century, so that by 2015 the AIDS pandemic had claimed millions of lives, and with no clear path towards recovery, threatened to claim millions more. Now as you know, AIDS is spread via unprotected sex and since the disease was spreading, you can assume that there were a lot of people with HIV/AIDS having unprotected sex. This had the spillover effect of creating a huge orphaned population in southern Africa.

“Most political scientist failed to see that herein was buried the secret of why the region imploded. To explain: The average population in Britain before the First World War had an average of 35 percent males between the age of 15 and 29, and 40 percent in Germany. These figures had dwindled to 24 percent in Britain and 29 percent in Germany by 2000. When these figures are held against Iran's 48 percent in 2000, and the fact that the mean age in the developed world has risen to 37 (and is projected to rise to 46 by 2050), one can see clearly why these states have much higher aggression levels. The mean age for the less developed world is 24 and the least developed parts of the world have a mean age of 18. The impact of this, as I’m sure you have deducted, is that the decline in young men's relative numbers may contribute to the passivity of developed societies while explaining the greater belligerency of developing ones, particularly those of Islam heritage. This is explained by the logic that young males have always been the most aggressive element in society whereas older men are traditionally associated with a counsel of moderation and compromise.”

The Doctor took a sip from the mug, which had been silently cooling next to him on the table. “Coffee?” James implored.

“What? Oh, no. No, I don’t drink coffee anymore; apparently it’s bad for you.” The line came with a devilish tone. With that James realised that the there was someone in the room with Dr. Young.

“No, my wife won’t allow me that pleasure anymore,” upon which a voluptuous, but very attractive women walked into frame, “Um, Morning, Mrs Young, I presume?” James attempted.

“Morning, hope you won’t be keeping him for too long. We have other, how would you put it, engagements we need to see too.” Her soft tone floated like a butterfly around James’s room, perching gently on his ear, and utterly confusing his mind.

“No, won’t be long.” He mumbled.

With that she waltzed away and out of frame. James instinctively watched her leave, realising far too late that Dr. Young was watching him, watch his wife. “As I was saying, James, young men are partially to blame for the downfall of society, in southern Africa.” He left the sentience hanging. “Yes, of course, makes complete sense,” responded James automatically.

“The influx of younger men made for quite a witch’s brew in the region, gangs became prevalent in almost all of the capital cities. The culmination of this was the Namibian nuclear accident we witnesses in 2019, an incident which served as the catalyst for regional conflict to erupt and caused the eventual departure of foreign capital and investment. This had a dramatic effect on the region, both socially and economically. Socially; protests lead to xenophobia, crime and tribal wars. The countries in the region began to pit themselves against one another. Spending money they could not repay on building up a military arsenal. Economically the region became split into many small factions. Governments of the resource rich nations pulled together, investing in private armies and securities, such as Executive Outcomes, to secure their own wealth while their countries became unliveable.

“These leaders, or rather, state destroyers, then believed that the only way they could reunite the region was by forcing a regional body into working, which would unite the economies of the region and thus create a large enough wealth base in order for them to suppress the riotous factions. They based their thinking on the flawed belief that the EU and America had become strong because they became unified. They further believed that their countries were not economically viable or gloriously prosperous as a result of their comparatively small size. What they failed to realise was that both the EU countries and America’s states were prosperous, even the small countries, before they became unified. For example, Sweden, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Belgium all developed world-class companies long before European integration became a reality. Multinational corporations that developed in these small countries include Electrolux, Volvo, Saab, Nestle, Philips, Unilever, Royal Dutch/Shell, Carling, Interbrew, Heineken, ABB, Ericson, Nokia, Norsk hydro, Roche, Maersk, UBS, ABN-AMRO, to name but a few. When they attempted to create a governing regional body in southern Africa, they merely proved to the people that their leaders were fundamentally corrupt and that there existed no functioning ruling body.

24


“It was by 2023 that we saw the final blow fall. Now, James, as I’m sure you’re aware, Africa is no longer a holiday destination, unless you’re into extreme holidaying, or can afford to hire your own private army. The reason things look this bad can be placed into one term, resource independence. The west does not need Africa’s resources. Thanks to vigilant entrepreneurs and smart corporations we are now a fossil-fuel free society. We have figured out how to recycle all our waste product and, even though the globe is still warming, we know that it is cyclical. This has made it possible for us to migrate crops and work with the changing environmental landscape. Africa, on the other-hand has not. They have to watch as their crops either die in the sun due to changing rain patterns, or hope they will survive the floods. Bitter cold is met with scorching heat. And lastly, with the advent of the fusion generation, we no longer need fossil fuels to generate energy. This has left Africa in a complete mess. Democratic consolidation is not a reality in the near future. Economically it’s a fallout zone and socially, well, you would have to be a local to be able to survive. The rules that govern most of Africa could only be called barbaric. It’s a shame really; it used to be a wonderful continent. Really diverse, you know. Well, no, probably not. ”

With that Doctor Young looked off screen towards something James could not see. He seemed pensive and very distant for a while, and then he dropped his frown and said; “Listen, James, it’s been real. But I need to go. As my wife said, we have engagements to uphold. We can continue this some other time. Send my regards to the editor. Good day.”

“Connection lost.” Lilly chirped.

“Wow that was intense!” James said, mostly to himself.

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Documents

South Africa Scenario Pack