South Africa and IIASA Highlights

(2008-2014)

January 2015

CONTENTS1. Summary2. National Member Organization3. Leading South African Personalities Associated with

IIASA4. Research Partners5. Capacity Building6. Research Collaborations: Selected Highlights7. Prospects for future IIASA-South African activities8. Further Information

SUMMARY (2008-2014)National Member Organization

National Research Foundation

Membership start date 2007

Research partners 27 organizations in South Africa

Areas of research collaborations

Toward a sustainable energy system for all in South AfricaProjecting demographic change in South Africa Improving food security in South AfricaAdvancing the methods of systems analysis

Capacity building 44 doctoral students from South Africa have taken part in the Young Scientists Summer Program and its Southern African version

Publication output 34 publications have resulted from IIASA-South African collaborations

Other interactions Researchers, advisors, and diplomats from South Africa have visited IIASA 42 times, while IIASA scientists have visited South Africa over 80 times

NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATIONNational Research Foundation • Dr Dorsamy (Gansen) Pillay, Deputy CEO (RISA: Research and

Innovation Support and Advancement) at NRF, is the IIASA Council Member for South Africa.

• Dr Aldo Stroebel, Executive Director, International Relations & Cooperation at NRF is the NMO Secretary for South Africa.

• IIASA-South African NMO Committee strengthens links between IIASA and South Africa, and is made up of representatives from the South African government, funding agencies, research institutions, and universities.

SOME LEADING PERSONALITIES IN SOUTH AFRICA AND ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA

Albert van Jaarsveld

Mary Scholes

Derek Hanekom Zanele Magwaza-Msibi

Coleen Vogel

Phil Mjwara

Naledi Pandor Bob Scholes

RESEARCH PARTNERS

• 26 institutions in South Africa, including: • Central University of Technology (CUT)• Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR)• Department of Science and Technology (DST)• Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University (NMMU) • North-West University (NWU) • Stellenbosch University (SU)• University of Cape Town (UCT)• University of Johannesburg (UJ)• University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN)• University of the Free State (UFS)

CAPACITY BUILDING• 9 doctoral students from South Africa have won places on

IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program since 2008.

REGIONAL YSSP: SOUTHERN AFRICA

8

YSSP 2012/1319 doctoral students

from 16 countries

YSSP 2013/1436 doctoral students

from 21 countries

YSSP 2014/1528 doctoral students

from 17 countries

RESEARCH COLLABORATIONS• Projecting changing population in South Africa• Global Energy Assessment and South Africa• Rural energy sustainability index • Better livestock diets to combat climate change and

improve food security• Developing more accurate maps of cropland in Africa• Developing systems analysis in South Africa

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN SOUTH AFRICA

To update with FinlandTO UPDATE

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000

South Africa - Base Year 2010

Population in Millions

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

50.1 Million FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN SOUTH AFRICASUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

TO UPDATE

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000

South Africa - Projections 2030 - SSP1

Population in Millions

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

58.5 Million FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN SOUTH AFRICASUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

TO UPDATE

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000

South Africa - Projections 2060 - SSP1

Population in Millions

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

62.4 Million FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN SOUTH AFRICA

To update with FinlandTO UPDATE

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000

South Africa - Base Year 2010

Population in Millions

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

50.1 Million FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN SOUTH AFRICA STALLED DEVELOPMENT

TO UPDATE

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000

South Africa - Projections 2030 - SSP3

Population in Millions

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

56.9 Million FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN SOUTH AFRICASTALLED DEVELOPMENT

TO UPDATE

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000

South Africa - Projections 2060 - SSP3

Population in Millions

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

63.4 Million FemalesMales

GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND SOUTH AFRICA

16Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA

• 2006-12: GEA defines a new global energy policy agenda—one that transforms the way society thinks about, uses, and delivers energy.

• South African contribution: – Five South African scientists contributed

with research and analysis on energy access and energy transformations.

• One notable outcome: GEA guides targets of UN Secretary-General’s Sustainable Energy For All Initiative

CHANGES IN RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND ACCESS

Source: Global Energy Assessment (2012) Chapter 19

RURAL ENERGY SUSTAINABILITY INDEX

Source: Brijesh Mainali , Shonali Pachauri , Narasimha D. Rao , Semida Silveira Assessing rural energy sustainability in developing countries. Energy for Sustainable Development, 19:15-28

BETTER LIVESTOCK DIETS TO COMBAT CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPROVE FOOD SECURITY

Source: Havlík P et al. PNAS 2014;111:3709-3714 19

DEVELOPING MORE ACCURATE MAPS OF CROPLAND IN AFRICA

PROVIDING IMPROVED DATA TO FARMERS

The Growers Nation App is available on iTunes and Google Play 21

A new app designed at IIASA makes agricultural data available for gardeners and smallholder farmers in Kenya and Tanzania to help boost crop yields and production. It also allows the farmers to share tips and information about pests and disease. In turn all this data helps further inform IIASA research.

PROSPECTS FOR FUTURE IIASA-SOUTH AFRICAN ACTIVITIES

• New Research Partnerships– South African versions of IIASA models– South African roles in Futures initiatives– To win grants from international research funders

• New Capacity Building Activities– For postdoctoral scholars– For policy makers

• Systems Analysis Research Professorship

FUTURE IIASA-SOUTH AFRICAN ACTIVITIES (Example 1)

23

Henrik Sjӧdin (Sweden)

Wei Liu (China)

Carl Salk (US)

Artem Baklanov(Russia)

Daniel Jessie(US)

Luzma Nava Jiménez (Mexico)

Fulvio di Fulvio(Italy/ Sweden)

Matthias Wildemersch (Austria)

Lisa Scholten

(Germany) Starting in 2015

Develop skills in systems analysis as a postdoc at IIASA and join:

FUTURE IIASA-SOUTH AFRICAN ACTIVITIES (Example 2)

Dec 2013: European Commission proposed a new package of measures to reduce air pollution. Poor air quality is the number one environmental cause of premature death in the European Union. By 2030, the package will:

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• Avoid an extra 58,000 premature deaths• Protect an extra 123,000 km2 of ecosystems from nitrogen pollution (more than

half the area of Romania)• Save 19 000 km2 forests from acidification by the year 2030.

IIASA’s GAINS model guided European policymakers at every step of this process. IIASA, University of Johannesburg, CSIR, and North-West University discussing how to develop the GAINS model for the South African region over the next few years.

FURTHER INFORMATION

IIASA www.iiasa.ac.at

National Research Foundationwww.nrf.ac.za