d2wsh2n0xua73e.cloudfront.net · Source: Odey Internal Data. Performance is net of fees and other charges and includes the reinvestment of dividends. Past performance does not guarantee

Page 1

Page 2

All data is for the period 31-Dec-14 to 31-Mar-15. Source: Odey internal unaudited data, net of fees and charges. Past performance does not guarantee future

results and the value of all investments and the income derived therefrom can decrease as well as increase. Investments that have an exposure to currencies other

than the base currency of the fund may be subject to exchange rate fluctuations.

During Q1-15 OEI returned +1.4% (€), OEI Mac returned +4.7% ($), Odey Swan returned 0% (€ I);

the long-only funds returned: (Opus £) +6.2%, (Odey Allegra International €) +12.8% and (Odey Pan

European € R) +9.9%. The MSCI Daily TR Net Europe returned +16.5% (€), +3.5% ($) and the

MSCI Daily TR Net World returned +7.4% (£) and +15.3% (€).

The performance of OEI for Q1-15 was mainly driven by active currency exposure (+10.1%), this

was predominantly due to the AUD/USD position.

The long equity book disappointed after currency hedging returned -5.0%. Positive contributions

from positions such as Sky Plc (+98bps), DMG Mori Seiki Co. Ltd (+80bps) and Man Group Plc

(+69bps). There were a number of negative contributions, the largest of which came from Circle

Holdings Plc (-20bps), Tungsten Corp Plc (-19bps) and Sports Direct International Plc (-16bps).

The short equity book also made a negative contribution after currency hedging (-4.7%). The best

performers were Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (+40bps), Seadrill Ltd (+29bps) and BG Group Plc

(+13bps). The worst performers were Adidas AG (-137bps), Peugeot SA (-64bps) and Tupperware

Brands Corporation (-56bps).

Elsewhere government bond and commodity positions returned +2.0% and -0.6% respectively.

Page 3

Source: Odey Internal Data. Performance is net of fees and other charges and includes the reinvestment of dividends. Past performance does not guarantee future results

and the value of all investments and the income derived therefrom can decrease as well as increase. Investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base

currency of the fund may be subject to exchange rate fluctuations. For details of the equity holdings and other exposures, please refer to the Master Fund, Odey

European Inc. The exposures shown are a look through to the Master Fund, Odey European Inc. Equity exposure includes all equity related instruments.

Attribution for OEI Mac is shown on a gross basis

*Performance for MSCI Daily TR Net World is shown in USD on a cumulative basis

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15

Long Equity Attribution Short Equity Attribution

FX Prop Attribution MSCI World Cumulative Performance*

Page 4

Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, Markit

The information and any opinions expressed are believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed

Page 5

Source: McKinsey


Page 6

Source: MGI Country Debt database, McKinsey Global Institute analysis


Page 7

Source: Jefferies


Country Region 10 Yrs Ago 5 Yrs Ago End of 2014 Current YTD Chg 5 Yr Chg 10 Yr Chg

United States Americas 41.17 30.46 37.55 36.07 -1.48 5.60 -5.11

China Asia/Pacific 1.17 6.87 7.64 9.43 1.79 2.56 8.26

Japan Asia/Pacific 10.48 7.80 6.83 7.27 0.43 -0.53 -3.21

Hong Kong Asia/Pacific 2.35 4.91 6.38 6.56 0.17 1.65 4.21

United Kingdom Europe/Africa/ME 7.73 6.29 5.64 5.41 -0.24 -0.88 -2.32

France Europe/Africa/ME 4.72 3.83 2.98 3.02 0.04 -0.81 -1.70

Canada Americas 2.97 3.67 3.23 2.94 -0.29 -0.73 -0.03

Germany Europe/Africa/ME 3.40 2.81 2.83 2.93 0.10 0.11 -0.47

Switzerland Europe/Africa/ME 2.00 2.33 2.42 2.46 0.04 0.13 0.46

India Asia/Pacific 1.06 2.88 2.40 2.34 -0.05 -0.54 1.29

South Korea Asia/Pacific 1.29 1.82 1.82 1.86 0.04 0.04 0.57

Australia Asia/Pacific 1.79 2.76 1.88 1.86 -0.03 -0.90 0.07

Taiwan Asia/Pacific 1.32 1.52 1.49 1.49 0.00 -0.03 0.17

Spain Europe/Africa/ME 1.81 1.45 1.11 1.12 0.00 -0.33 -0.69

Sweden Europe/Africa/ME 1.07 1.02 1.02 1.02 0.00 0.00 -0.05

Brazil Americas 0.97 2.75 1.24 0.96 -0.28 -1.78 0.00

Italy Europe/Africa/ME 2.26 1.38 0.86 0.91 0.05 -0.47 -1.35

Singapore Asia/Pacific 0.61 0.98 0.88 0.84 -0.04 -0.14 0.22

Saudi Arabia Europe/Africa/ME 1.03 0.76 0.74 0.77 0.03 0.01 -0.26

South Africa Europe/Africa/ME 0.62 0.88 0.78 0.75 -0.03 -0.13 0.13

Malaysia Asia/Pacific 0.50 0.67 0.70 0.67 -0.03 0.00 0.16

Mexico Americas 0.52 0.85 0.69 0.65 -0.04 -0.20 0.13

Thailand Asia/Pacific 0.32 0.41 0.64 0.63 -0.01 0.22 0.31

Netherlands Europe/Africa/ME 1.21 0.68 0.61 0.62 0.01 -0.05 -0.59

Russia Europe/Africa/ME 0.85 1.13 0.55 0.62 0.07 -0.51 -0.22

% of World Stock Market Cap by Country

Page 8

China USD trillion

Total Debt 28.0

Mcap 6.6

EV 34.6

GDP 10.0

of which is private 5.0

of which government + SOEs etc 5.0

5% interest on total debt 1.4

as % of private share of GDP: 28%

China's multiples

EV/GDP 3.5

EV/private GDP 6.9

implied EV/Sales 6.9

implied EV/EBIT 24.7

Debt/GDP 2.8

Source: Odey Internal Research as at 14-Apr-2015


Page 9

Source: Bloomberg as at 31-Mar-2015


45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

HSBC China Manufacturing PMI

Page 10

Source: Bloomberg as at 28-Feb-2015


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

China central government revenue (cumulative YoY %)

Page 11

Source: Bloomberg as at 08-Apr-2015


90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

MSCI Global excluding Emerging Markets

MSCI Emerging Markets

0.95

0.97

0.99

1.01

1.03

1.05

1.07

1.09

1.11

1.13MSCI Global excl EM / MSCI Emerging Markets

Page 12

Source: Bloomberg data as at 13-Apr-2015


50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

Jan-

2009

Mar

-200

9

May

-200

9

Jul-

2009

Sep-

2009

No

v-20

09

Jan-

2010

Mar

-201

0

May

-201

0

Jul-

2010

Sep-

2010

No

v-20

10

Jan-

2011

Mar

-201

1

May

-201

1

Jul-

2011

Sep-

2011

No

v-20

11

Jan-

2012

Mar

-201

2

May

-201

2

Jul-

2012

Sep-

2012

No

v-20

12

Jan-

2013

Mar

-201

3

May

-201

3

Jul-

2013

Sep-

2013

No

v-20

13

Jan-

2014

Mar

-201

4

May

-201

4

Jul-

2014

Sep-

2014

No

v-20

14

Jan-

2015

Mar

-201

5

AUD spot rate (LHS) China iron ore Fe 62% spot (RHS)

Page 13

Source: EIA, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.


WTI crude oil price adjusted using the consumer price index (CPI) to real February 2015 U.S.

dollars. Areas in red represent periods when oil prices exceeded $90 per barrel.

Page 14

Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.


Page 15



250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

US crude oil inventories (1,000 barrels)

Page 16



400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200A

pr-1

990

Apr

-199

1

Apr

-199

2

Apr

-199

3

Apr

-199

4

Apr

-199

5

Apr

-199

6

Apr

-199

7

Apr

-199

8

Apr

-199

9

Apr

-200

0

Apr

-200

1

Apr

-200

2

Apr

-200

3

Apr

-200

4

Apr

-200

5

Apr

-200

6

Apr

-200

7

Apr

-200

8

Apr

-200

9

Apr

-201

0

Apr

-201

1

Apr

-201

2

Apr

-201

3

Apr

-201

4

Baker Hughes US rig count

Page 17

Source: Bloomberg data and Odey Internal Data as at 15-Apr-2015


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Model prediction Actual RUB/USD

Page 18



2,500

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

3,700

3,900

4,100

4,300

4,500Brent Oil Price in Russian Rouble

Page 19



60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan-2010 Oct-2010 Jul-2011 Apr-2012 Jan-2013 Oct-2013 Jul-2014 Apr-2015

Norilsk Nickel share price Nickel price

Page 20

Source: Bloomberg as at 31-Dec-2014


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

Dec-1

999

Dec-2

000

Dec-2

001

Dec-2

002

Dec-2

003

Dec-2

004

Dec-2

005

Dec-2

006

Dec-2

007

Dec-2

008

Dec-2

009

Dec-2

010

Dec-2

011

Dec-2

012

Dec-2

013

Dec-2

014

Global FX holdings

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (RHS)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

Dec-1

999

Dec-2

000

Dec-2

001

Dec-2

002

Dec-2

003

Dec-2

004

Dec-2

005

Dec-2

006

Dec-2

007

Dec-2

008

Dec-2

009

Dec-2

010

Dec-2

011

Dec-2

012

Dec-2

013

Dec-2

014

Change in global FX holdings (YoY)

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (RHS)

Page 21



5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

Norwegian Krone vs. USD

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5Swedish Krona vs. USD

Page 22

Source: Factset as at 27-Mar-2015


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90VIX Index

EVZ Index (CBOE EURO

CURRENCY VOL)

Page 24



-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Germany 5 yr yield (%)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

United States 5yr yield (%)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8Australia 5 yr yield (%)

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5Switzerland 5yr yield (%)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7UK 5yr yield (%)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8Japan 5yr yield (%)

Page 25

Source: Bloomberg as at 23-Mar-2015


0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

FTSE 100 dividend yield (12m gross)

FTSE 100 earnings yield (blended fwd 12m EPS / FTSE price)30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%FTSE 100 payout ratio

Page 26

Source: Bloomberg as at 28-Feb-2015 and Haver Analytics.


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Mar-

1992

Mar-

1993

Mar-

1994

Mar-

1995

Mar-

1996

Mar-

1997

Mar-

1998

Mar-

1999

Mar-

2000

Mar-

2001

Mar-

2002

Mar-

2003

Mar-

2004

Mar-

2005

Mar-

2006

Mar-

2007

Mar-

2008

Mar-

2009

Mar-

2010

Mar-

2011

Mar-

2012

Mar-

2013

Mar-

2014

US manufacturers new orders (YoY SA %)

Page 27

Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts


Page 28



-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

US Empire State manufacturing survey general

business conditions (SA)

Page 29

Source: Rcube


Page 30

Source: Fed, Bloomberg data and Odey Internal Research as at 31-Mar-2015


-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Mar-

02

Mar-

03

Mar-

04

Mar-

05

Mar-

06

Mar-

07

Mar-

08

Mar-

09

Mar-

10

Mar-

11

Mar-

12

Mar-

13

Mar-

14

Mar-

15

NACM - Amount of credit

extended

Contemporaneous

5% R-squared

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Mar-

02

Mar-

03

Mar-

04

Mar-

05

Mar-

06

Mar-

07

Mar-

08

Mar-

09

Mar-

10

Mar-

11

Mar-

12

Mar-

13

Mar-

14

Mar-

15

NACM Credit Extended

SeriesLoan growth - year-on-year

(%, RHS)

12 month lag

52% R-squared

Page 31



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Apr-2005 Apr-2006 Apr-2007 Apr-2008 Apr-2009 Apr-2010 Apr-2011 Apr-2012 Apr-2013 Apr-2014

US personal savings rate (% household income) US Bloomberg weekly consumer confidence (RHS)

Page 32

Source: CrossBorder Capital


Page 33

Source: Odey Internal Data as at 30-Mar-2015


-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300 Equity (net) Government Bond (net)

Foreign Exchange Commodity

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Long Equity Exposure Short Equity Exposure

Net Equity Exposure Gross Equity Exposure

Page 34

Source: Odey Internal Data as at 14-Apr-2015


-100%

-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Dec-14 Apr-15

North America United Kingdom Europe Excl UK Japan Australasia

Asia Excl Japan Latin America Africa Rest of World

Page 35

Head of Institutional Sales

[email protected]

+44 (20) 7208 1455

[email protected]

+44 (20) 7208 1451

[email protected]

+44 (20) 7478 1689

[email protected]

+44 (20) 7208 1484

[email protected]

+44 (20) 7208 1468

[email protected]

+44 (20) 7478 9772

[email protected]

+44 (20) 7208 1467

[email protected]

+44 (20) 7208 1416

[email protected]

+41 (22) 322 2024

[email protected]

+44 (20) 7208 1684

[email protected]

+41 (22) 322 2020

[email protected]

+44 (20) 7208 1685

[email protected]

+1 (212) 612 1549

12 Upper Grosvenor Street, London W1K 2ND

Tel: 020 7208 1400 ~ Fax: 020 7208 1401

www.odey.com

Page 36

This is a marketing communication from Odey which is not intended to be viewed as a piece of independent investment research.

© 2015 Odey Asset Management LLP (“OAM”) has approved this communication which is for private circulation only, and in the UK is directed to persons who are professional clients or eligible

counterparties for the purposes of the FCA’s Conduct of Business Sourcebook and it is not intended for and must not be distributed to retail clients. It does not constitute an offer to sell or an invitation to buy

or invest in any of the securities or funds mentioned herein and it does not constitute a personal recommendation or investment taxation or any other advice. The information and any opinions have been

obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results and the value of all investments and the income derived

therefrom can decrease as well as increase. Investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base currency of the fund may be subject to exchange rate fluctuations. This communication and the

information contained therein may constitute a financial promotion for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 as amended by the Financial Services Act 2012 of the United Kingdom

(the “Act”) and the rules of the FCA. This communication is not subject to any restrictions on dealing ahead. The distribution of this communication may, in some countries, be restricted by law or regulation.

Accordingly, anyone who comes into possession of this communication should inform themselves of and observe these restrictions. OAM is not liable for a breach of such restrictions or for any losses relating

to the accuracy, completeness or use of information in this communication, including any consequential loss. Please always refer to the fund’s prospectus. OAM whose company No. is OC302585 and whose

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d2wsh2n0xua73e.cloudfront.net · Source: Odey Internal Data. Performance is net of fees and other charges and includes the reinvestment of dividends. Past performance does not guarantee