Yang Yongliang, "Viridescence, Stock World“ 2009 LMIN Gallery, San Francisco, http://limnartgallery.com/artwork/952850_Yang_Yongliang_Viridescence_Stock_World.html

Source Everywhere, Manufacture Everywhere, Sell Everywhere

A Presentation to CALSIAN Trade Association, Board of Directors, San Francisco, June 29, 2012Presenter: Gus Koehler, Ph.D., President, Time Structures, Inc.

1545 University Ave., Sacramento, CA 916-564-8683 Gus@TimeStructures.com

Whom Do We Trade With?What Is Traded?

How Are Both Likely to Change?

US Census Bureau, State Exports for California (Origin of Movement) http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/zip/index.html#2012

Sweden

Philippines

United Arab Emirates

Chile

Switzerland

Thailand

Italy

France

Malaysia

Belgium

Israel

Brazil

Australia

India

Singapore

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Germany

Taiwan

Hong Kong

Korea, South

Japan

China

Canada

Mexico

2524

2322

2120

1918

1716

1514

1312

1110

98

76

54

32

1

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

California's Top Export Countries by 2011 Value

Millions $s Time Structures

US Census Bureau, State Exports for California (Origin of Movement) http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/zip/index.html#2012

TaiwanThailand

United KingdomSwitzerlandPhilippines

United Arab EmiratesSweden

FranceChile

SingaporeGermany

BrazilKorea, South

CanadaItaly

JapanNetherlands

MalaysiaHong Kong

ChinaIndia

AustraliaBelgiumMexico

Israel

2524

2322

2120

1918

1716

1514

1312

1110

98

76

54

32

1

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

California Trade Percent Change by Country 2010 - 2011

Percent

Time Structures

Economist, The World in 2036, Nov. 22, 2010. Time Structures

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/05/18/business/growth-in-the-g-20.html?ref=world

Time Structures

Time Structures

70 Trillion Rupees

17 Trillion Rupees

400%

3 Trill

41 Trillion

1,370% Increase

CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Time Structures

Middle and Upper248 Billion

2.4 Trillion

Middle and Upper 1.7 Trillion

452 Billion

500% In

creas

e

685%

Increase

Foreign Direct Investment Now Flows to Developing Nations

Source: World Bank, Financial Data, Foreign Direct Investment Net Flows

Time Structures

Loosers WinnersIndonesia FranceArgentina Netherlands

Malaysia United StatesColombia BelgiumSaudi Arabia Luxembourg

Loosers WinnersUnited Kingdom IndonesiaNetherlands Brazil

HungaryHong Kong SAR, China

Canada United StatesAustria China

Foreign Direct Investment 1997-01

Foreign Direct Investment 2007-11

AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING UNITS,...

PARTS OF AIRPLANES OR HELICOPTE...

OPTICAL INST FOR INSPECTING SE...

PARTS & ACCSESORIES FOR MACH T...

LIGHT OILS& PREP (NOT CRUDE) FR...

PHONES FOR CELLULAR NTWKS OR ...

DIGITAL PROCESSING UNITS, N.E.S.O.I.

MED NEEDLES. NESOI, CATHERERS E...

ANTISERA AND BLOOD FRACTIONS,...

COMPOSITE DIAGNOSTIC/LAB REAG...

INSTR & APPL F MEDICAL SURGICAL ...

PORT DIGTL AUTOMATIC DATA PRO...

PASS VEH SPK-IG INT COM RCPR P E...

ELECTRONIC INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, ...

ALMONDS, FRESH OR DRIED, SHELLED

MACHINES FOR MAN. SEMICONDUTOR...

PASS VEH SPK-IG INT COM RCPR P ...

FERROUS WASTE & SCRAP NESOI

PROCESSORS AND CONTROLLERS, EL...

AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING STORA...

OIL (NOT CRUDE) FROM PETROL & B...

MACH FOR RECP/CONVR/TRANS/RE...

DIAMONDS, NONINDUSTRIAL, WO...

PARTS & ACCESSORIES FOR ADP MA...

CIVILIAN AIRCRAFT, ENGINES, AND P...25

2423

2221

2019

1817

1615

1413

1211

109

87

65

43

21

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

2011 25 Highest Value CaliforniaOriginated Exports

Millions of DollarsUS Census Bureau, State Exports for California (Origin of Movement) http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/zip/index.html#2012

Time Structures

Time Structures

United States

China

Germany

Japan

Time Structures

EU (All Members)

United States

China

California’s Largest Metropolitan Centers Drove 73% of the State Exports in 2010

Metropolitan AreaExport Value

(bln $)Direct Export Production

Jobs 2010, (1000s)

Total Export Jobs, 2010

(thousands)

Annuallized Growth rate (2003-2008)

Exports Growth Rate

by Value (2009-10)

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana 79.8 312.7 540.7 7.70% 9.00%San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont 31.8 110 194.3 13.70% 8.20%San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara 22.8 72.9 144.8 6.10% 12.20%San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos 16 65.5 113.4 9.30% 11.10%Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario 10.9 39.4 73.6 9.30% 9.50%Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura 6.2 16.6 34.2 7.70% 11.90%Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville 6 26.8 44.3 8.10% 6.80%Bakersfield-Delano 4 12.1 23.9 14.40% 9.00%Fresno 3.7 14.5 28.5 9.30% 8.30%Stockton 2 7.5 15.3 7.40% 6.20%Modesto 1.9 6.3 13.4 7.70% 9.00%

Total 185.1 684.3 1,226 9.15% 9.20%

Export Performance of the 11 Largest California Metros of the Top 100 US Metros, 2010

Brookings, Export Nation 2012.

Metropolitan Opportunities to Increase Direct Exports

Unexploited CA runways with capacity to land 747 to increase agricultural and other exports:– Central Coast: Santa Maria – Central Valley: Sacramento, Stockton, Castle,

Fresno, and Bakersfield – Inland Empire: Ontario, March, and San

Bernardino

Source: Jock O'Connell, Foreign Trade Consultant, Time Structures, Inc.

What New Dynamics Drive California’s Global Trade Competitiveness?

Can California Be A First Mover?

Core Issues and California’s Future Competitive Advantage

= Brief Competitive Advantage

Time Structures

New Materials &Invented ProgrammableOrganisms

+Advanced Manufacturing Technologies: Machine Learning melds with cognitive Science

Global Logistics Systems

Ubiquitous use of IT, Massive Data Bases and Social Media

Innovative Workforce SkillsIn Groups

+

+ +Diverse Networks(Research, Financial,Production, Energy, Conservation, Supply, etc.)

+

+ Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction vs. Effects of Climate Change

New OrganizationalForms and Services

Level of Unknown Change: Red Highest, Orange Medium High, Green Medium, & Blue Lowest.

Current and Emerging Multinational Firm Characteristics: Elastic

• Globally, locally focused competitive quality, design, technology, and management

• First World brand building and manufacturing and globally marketed via social media

• Excellent Logistics

• Rapid redefinition and response to changing markets using social media

• Small and Medium Company acquisition savvy and fluid networking

• Sustained IT edge to provide insight and transform business

• Unconventional thinking by local engineering, IT, marketing and other staff

• Play both competitor and partner

Source: Agtmael (2007). The Emerging Markets Century.

Time Structures

Emerging Micro-Multinationals

Time Structures

• 30,000 multinationals in 1990 vs. 60,000+ today with smaller average size

• Due to access to technology, and IT • Five+ people with local or global contract workers• Recruit skilled workers Locally: Engineers in Argentina at 1/3

US cost• Very specialized services: programing, data processing, typing

transcripts• Business on broadband, social networks, e-mail, wikis • Highly networked suppliers, and partners• Quality products at low cost• In US run by a foreign expatriate

Entrepreneurial

Kauffman Foundation, 2012 at: http://www.kauffman.org/research-and-policy/kiea-2012-infographic.aspx Time Structures

Entrepreneurial

Time Structures

72%

54%

45%

36%

30%

Time Structures

http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind10/pdf/c04.pdf Time Structures

Time Structures

Technology Review (MIT) May/June 2012Time Structures

USA

NAS, The Role of the Chemical Sciences in Finding Alternatives to Critical Resources: A Workshop Summary, 2012

Global loss of Manufacturing Jobs to Productivity IT and Other Increases: California is not alone

William A. Ward Clemson, Manufacturing Productivity and the Shifting US,China, and Global Job Scenes—1990 to 2005, University Center for International Trade Working Paper 052507, (August 4, 2005) Time Structures

+

Atlantic, June 13, 2012.

bal

Time Structures

Global

http://www.itif.org/files/2008_State_New_Economy_Index.pdf Time Structures

Source: McKinsey Global Institute, The World at Work 12http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/mgi/research/labor_markets/the_world_at_work

World too few High-Skilled + Medium Skill Worker = Business Magnet for countries with more skilled workers

Global Million Million

Percent of Total Unmet Worker Demand is:

For California:

Time Structures

Latinos Will Dominate 2020 Workforce

Time Structures

Graph : Percent of California's Workforce Population by Ethnicity Aged 15-59

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

2000 2010 2020

Whi

te a

nd H

ispa

nic

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

All O

ther

Eth

nic G

roup

s

White

Hispanic

Asian

Pacific Islander

Black

American Indian

Multiracial

Source: CA Dept. of Finance and Time Structures

http://measuringup2008.highereducation.org/print/NCPPHEMUNationalRpt.pdf Time Structures

Source: The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, “Measuring-up 2006.” http://measuringup.highereducation.org/_docs/2006/statereports/CA06.pdf Time Structures

California Certificate and Degree Completion Rate Is Low

“Chasing the American Dream: Recent College Graduates and the Great Recession (2012)

Time Structures

Global Trade Dynamics Are Chaotic Creating Unexpected Market Opportunities and Collapses• It is not “trade as usual”• Culturally complex middle class markets will grow fast in China, India, and

other BRICS• California has underutilized global export capacity• A highly trained, culturally diverse innovative workforce will drive

competitive advantage as long as there is a skewed global distribution of skills

• Exports markets will move more to the internet requiring higher computer and cultural marketing skills, increasing product churn

• California does not have a monopoly on small multicultural Innovative firms which will play an ever increasing trade role

• Research, patenting and collaboration are global threatening any one country’s long-term domination of a single technology sector

• Productivity, logistics, velocity of service as driven by global IT is critical to competitive advantage

Time Structures, Inc. Contact Information

Presentations like this have been made to, among others, the California Community Colleges, Chancellor’s Office, California Workforce Investment Boards, California Redevelopment Association’s Board of Directors, California Student Financial Aid Commission, California Council on Science and Technology, California Association for Economic Development, and the various local economic development organizations. To make arrangements to have this presentation made to your group or to have one created to meet your particular needs contact:

Gus Koehler, Ph.D., PresidentTime Structures, Inc.916-564-8683 or Gus@TimeStructures.com