18
1 Prepared for Energy and Mines World Congress BNEF coverage Clean energy Advanced transport Digital industry Advanced materials Solar Wind Storage Impact on power & utilities Frontier power Electrified transport Autonomous driving Shared mobility Impact on transport Impact on oil & power Decentralized energy Internet of things Automation & advanced analytics Commodities LNG & gas Oil & products Power Carbon Impact on industrials, utilities, healthcare Asset mgt, digital manufacturing, logistics Connected customer, “as a service” business models 3D Printing, distributed manufacturing Bioplastics, biomaterials Lightweighting, emissions reduction Graphene, composites Impact on industrials, materials and energy Chemicals Metals

Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

1 Prepared for Energy and Mines World Congress

BNEF coverage

Clean energy Advanced transport

Digital industry Advanced materials

Solar Wind Storage Impact on power & utilities

Frontier power

Electrified transport

Autonomous driving

Sharedmobility

Impact on transport

Impact on oil & power

Decentralized energy

Internet of things

Automation & advanced analytics

Commodities

LNG & gas

Oil & products

PowerCarbon

Impact on industrials,

utilities, healthcare

Asset mgt, digital manufacturing,

logistics

Connected customer, “as a

service” business models

3D Printing, distributed

manufacturing

Bioplastics, biomaterials

Lightweighting, emissions reduction

Graphene, composites

Impact on industrials,

materials and energy

ChemicalsMetals

Page 2: Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

2 Prepared for Energy and Mines World Congress

Cheap renewables are here

Page 3: Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

3 Prepared for Energy and Mines World Congress

Source: BloombergNEFSource: BloombergNEF

Wind and solar costs continue to fall Clean energy investment slowing

Costs fall, investments slow

$ billion (Q3 2018)

Page 4: Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

4 Prepared for Energy and Mines World Congress

Solar Coal

Wind Gas

Drivers of costs

Page 5: Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

5 Prepared for Energy and Mines World Congress

Ramp-up time for select technologies Costs of generation, $/MWh

Costs of capacity, flexibility $/MWh Costs of battery storage systems

Measuring impact of storageBattery

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35Response requirement (min)

Co

CCGTOCGTGRE

Min Load

Max Load

Page 6: Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

6 Prepared for Energy and Mines World Congress

Source: BloombergNEF

Australia LCOE stack

Page 7: Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

7 Prepared for Energy and Mines World Congress

Source: BloombergNEFSource: BloombergNEF

Mining generation projects, by tech Mining generation projects, by region

State-of-play for mining and renewables

10

127

6639

121

206 219

0

100

200

300

400

2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Installed capacity (MW)

Small hydro

Wind

Solar

352

10

127

66 39

121

206 219

0

100

200

300

400

2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Installed capacity (MW)

EMEA

APAC

AMER

352

Page 8: Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

8 Prepared for Energy and Mines World Congress

Source: BloombergNEFSource: BloombergNEF

Mining generation projects, by structure Mining generation projects, by strategy

Strategies for miners in renewables

0

100

200

300

400

2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Installed capacity (MW)

Direct ownership

PPA or other

480

201

261

645

792

Installed capacity (MW)

EmbeddedgenerationHosting an IPP

Miner as IPP

Renewable energysubsidiaryOff-site PPA

Page 9: Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

9 Prepared for Energy and Mines World Congress

Technology drives efficiency

Page 10: Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

10 Prepared for Energy and Mines World Congress

Source: Bloomberg Terminal. Note that “references” corresponds to mentions of “UAVs” or “drones” by publicly listed companies

Source: Barrick Gold, BloombergNEF

Increasing costs of production Digital sentiment in mining by number of mentions in public documents, 2012 -2017

Why the pursuit of technology?

2

2

2

3

12

14

23

24

46

Anglo American PLC

China Shenhua Energy

Coal India Ltd

Glencore PLC

Vale SA

BHP Billiton Ltd

Newcrest Mining Ltd

Cardinal Resources Ltd

Barrick Gold Corp

Top 3 by mentions

Major miners

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Total cash cost ($/oz) Overall

Veladero

LagunasNortePuebloViejoGoldstrike

Cortez

Page 11: Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

11 Prepared for Energy and Mines World Congress

Hardware miniaturization Improving Range Software improvement

Drone technology advances

-2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16 18 20

Range (km)

Airspeed (km/hour)

2017

2018

2019

2020

2025

20300

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2000 2007 2011 2015 2017

Wei

ght (

kg)

Volu

me

(cm

3)

Weight and volume of Canon digital cameras

Volume (cm3)

Weight (kg) 0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

The first group using deep learning reduced error rate below 25%

The following year nearly every team got 25% or fewer wrong

Best image classification error rate from a computer vision contest

Page 12: Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

12 Prepared for Energy and Mines World Congress

Renewables Oil & Gas Transmission & distribution

Mining Marine Agriculture Construction

More drone offeringsIndustry

Sta

rtups

Cor

pora

tes

Source: Bloomberg NEF

No offering Hardware

Service Software

SW+service Hardware+software

Page 13: Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

13 Prepared for Energy and Mines World Congress

Source: BloombergNEF

Renewable and off-grid solutions for miners

Energy storage /battery

management software

Redeployable solar /rental

Hybrid micro-grids

Fuel generators /rental

Solar /inverters

Mining

Page 14: Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

14 Prepared for Energy and Mines World Congress

● {BPIX 321064668<Go>}

Transport

Source: Bloomberg

A Hydrogen Future?

Page 15: Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

15 Prepared for Energy and Mines World Congress

Source: BloombergNEF, Morgan Stanley, CSIRO

Key challenges: Hydrogen is expensive to make

$32-41 Hydrogen from renewable electricity

$15-20 Hydrogen from fossil fuels

$3-11 Natural gas

Fuel cost ($/GJ)

Page 16: Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

16 Prepared for Energy and Mines World Congress

Source: BloombergNEF

78 EJ

29,250 TWhRequires

> than current global generation

Key challenges: hydrogen takes a lot of electricity to make

Projected demand in 2050 (Hydrogen Council)

9.5 TW 9x Current installed wind and solar capacity (2018)

Page 17: Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

17 Prepared for Energy and Mines World Congress

The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, in providing the service/information, believe that the information it uses comes from reliable sources, but do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this information, which is subject to change without notice, and nothing in this document shall be construed as such a guarantee. The statements in this service/document reflect the current judgment of the authors of the relevant articles or features, and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates (“Bloomberg”). Bloomberg disclaims any liability arising from use of this document, its contents and/or this service. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment or other strategy (e.g., whether or not to “buy”, “sell”, or “hold” an investment). The information available through this service is not based on consideration of a subscriber’s individual circumstances and should not be considered as information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. You should determine on your own whether you agree with the content. This service should not be construed as tax or accounting advice or as a service designed to facilitate any subscriber’s compliance with its tax, accounting or other legal obligations. Employees involved in this service may hold positions in the companies mentioned in the services/information.

The data included in these materials are for illustrative purposes only. The BLOOMBERG TERMINAL service and Bloomberg data products (the “Services”) are owned and distributed by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (“BFLP”) except that Bloomberg L.P. and its subsidiaries (“BLP”) distribute these products in Argentina, Australia and certain jurisdictions in the Pacific islands, Bermuda, China, India, Japan, Korea and New Zealand. BLP provides BFLP with global marketing and operational support. Certain features, functions, products and services are available only to sophisticated investors and only where permitted. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy of prices or other information in the Services. Nothing in the Services shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates, or as investment advice or recommendations by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates of an investment strategy or whether or not to “buy”, “sell” or “hold” an investment. Information available via the Services should not be considered as information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. The following are trademarks and service marks of BFLP, a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries: BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG MARKETS, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG TERMINAL and BLOOMBERG.COM. Absence of any trademark or service mark from this list does not waive Bloomberg's intellectual property rights in that that name, mark or logo. All rights reserved. © 2018 Bloomberg.

Copyright and disclaimer

Page 18: Sophie - NEW - Low Costs for Powering Mines - BNEF Energy and … · The Bloomberg NEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P

Coverage.Clean energyAdvanced transportCommoditiesDigital industry

Bloomberg NEF (BNEF) is a leading provider of primary research on clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

BNEF’s global team leverages the world’s most sophisticated data sets to create clear perspectives and in-depth forecasts that frame the financial, economic and policy implications of industry-transforming trends and technologies.

BNEF research and analysis is accessible via web and mobile platforms, as well as on the Bloomberg Terminal.

Client enquiries:Bloomberg Terminal: press <Help> key twiceEmail: [email protected]

Learn more: about.bnef.com | @BloombergNEF