Svetlana Yu. GlebovaSvetlana Yu. Glebova

Some features of reconstructions in atmospheric circulation over the Asian-Pacific region

in 2000-2006

Pacific Fisheries Research Centre (TINRO-centre), Vladivostok, Russia, 2006

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The winter monsoon The summer monsoon

Aleution Low

Siberian High Far East Low

Hawaiian High

General direction of the wind circulation over the Far East region in the different seasons

Сharts of sea level atmospheric pressure, averaged for the “cold” and “warm” seasons, have been used.

Condition of the main Atmospheric Action Centers as well as direction and intensity of wind transfer over the each far East Seas were defined.

“Cold” season (October-March)

“Warm” season (April-September)

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To estimate the intensity and direction of monsoon transfer over the Far East Seas, meridional Katz index of atmospheric circulation Im was calculated as a number of isobars crossing latitudes inside and onboundaries of the three areas (including the Bering, Okhotsk and Japan Seas), taken into account their orientation. The formula was used:Im = Is-In/N

Where:Is – a number of the isobars orientated from thesouth to the north; In – their number orientated from the north to the south.N – a number of the crossed latitudes

Actually, Im> 0 characterizes southern wind (summer monsoon), Im <0 characterizes northern wind (winter monsoon).

“Cold” seasons (October-March)

“Warm” seasons (April-September)

The meridional Katz indices werecalculated for three marked areasincluding each of the Far East Seas

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Synoptic conditions over theFar East Seas in the cold seasons (October-March)

2000-2006

Direction of moving of the Aleution Low in 2000-2006100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200

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2004/2005

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2002/2003 2005/2006

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L1007

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2005/06

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2002/03

Year-to-year variability of a meridional Katz index (Im) (as indicator of a winter monsoon) in the Far East Seas in the cold seasons 2000-2006

Direction of moving of the Aleution Low in 2000-2006

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1007

Synoptic situation over theFar East Seas in the cold season 2005/2006

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2001/022002/03

2003/042004/05

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Synoptic conditions over the Far East SeasSynoptic conditions over the Far East Seasin the warm in the warm (April-September) seasons 2000seasons 2000--20062006 Direction of moving of

the Far East Low in 2000-2006

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LH

2006

Direction of moving of the Far East Low in 2000-2006

Year-to-year variability of a meridional Katz’s index (Im) (as indicator of a

summer monsoon) in the Far East Seas in the warm seasons 2000-2006

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20042001

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Direction of moving of the summer and winter Atmosphere

Action Centers in 2000-2006

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Far-Eastern Low(summer)

Aleutian Low(winter)

20032003/04

Year-to-year variability of ice cover (%) (from Ustinova et al.,2004) in the

Far East Seas in 2000-2006

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

S (%

)

Bering SeaSea of OkhotskJapan Sea

Intensity of the “northern wind transfer”

Bering Sea

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,52000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005

Im

Sea of Okhotsk

-3,6

-3

-2,4

-1,8

-1,22000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005

Im

Japan Sea

-3,6

-3

-2,4

-1,8

-1,22000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005

Im

Intensity of the “northern wind transfer”

Bering Sea

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,52000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005

Im

Sea of Okhotsk

-3,6

-3

-2,4

-1,8

-1,22000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005

Im

Japan Sea

-3,6

-3

-2,4

-1,8

-1,22000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005

Im

Sea of Okhotsk

0,5

1

1,5

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Im

Bering Sea

0

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0,8

1,2

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Im

Japan Sea

0,8

1,3

1,8

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2001

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2006

Im

Intensity of the “summerwind transfer”

What will be a climatic regime in the Far East Seas the nearest years?

Generalized synoptic situations appropriate to certain types of atmospheric processes over the Japan, Okhotsk and Bering

Seas (after Glebova,1999;2001)

The charts of surface pressure, averaged for 10-days, were used for classification of the atmospheric processes

Synoptic situations, at which over the Far East Seas “warm” and “cold”

winter types of atmospheric processes are formed

Repeatability of the "monsoon" summer types

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Japan SeaOkhotsk SeaBering Sea

Repeatability of the "cold" types

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Bering SeaOhkotsk SeaJapan Sea

Repeatability of the "warm" types

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Bering SeaOhkotsk SeaJapan Sea

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IIоIIb

The winter “cold” types

The winter “warm” types

Repeatability of the "monsoon" summer types

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Japan SeaOkhotsk SeaBering Sea

The summer “monsoon” types

Synoptic situations leading to formation of the different types of atmospheric processes over the Far East Seas

Year-to-year variability of the repeatability of the atmospheric types (quantity of the 10-days periods for year)

Total repeatability (per year) of the winter atmospheric processes causing strengthening (“cold” types) and easing (“warm” types) of

northern monsoon over the Far East Seas

The “cold” atmospheric types The “warm” atmospheric types

Japan Sea

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Bering Sea

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The summer “monsoon” types

RealReal and and expected repeatability of the winter (expected repeatability of the winter (AA) and spring) and spring--summer summer ““monsoonmonsoon”” ((BB) atmospheric types over the Far East Seas in 2000) atmospheric types over the Far East Seas in 2000--2009 2009

AA BB

Japan Sea

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Bering Sea

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ConclusionConclusion

Wind transfer dependence on conditions of seasonal Atmospheric Action Centers is determined for Far East region.

When the Aleutian Low moves toward the West, intensity of winter monsoon decreases. Displacement of the Far East Low toward the East usually causes strengthening of southern wind transfer over the Far East Seas.

When these processes occur, a climate becomes warmer in the Far East region.

The latest this situation was in 2003-2005.

Since 2005, the both Atmospheric Action Centers began an opposite movement. Possibly, these changes in atmospheric regime are harbingers of cooling in the Far East region in the nearest future.

Thank for attention