Solar Vision Study Overview - US Department of EnergySolar Vision Study Overview Robert Margolis National Renewable Energy Laboratory Solar Energy Technologies Program Annual Program

Solar Energy Technologies Program

Solar Vision Study OverviewRobert MargolisNational Renewable Energy Laboratory

Solar Energy Technologies ProgramAnnual Program Review Meeting

Washington, DCMay 24, 2010

U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program May 24, 2010

Background

• The Solar Vision Study explores the potential for and challenges to reaching high penetration levels of solar energy in the U.S. by 2030.– Specific analysis focuses on technical, economic, and

environmental feasibility of meeting 10% or 20% of U.S. electricity demand by 2030

– Technologies covered include: Photovoltaics (PV); Concentrating Solar Power (CSP); and Solar Heating and Cooling (SHC)

• The Solar Vision Study was initiated during March 2009 with broad industry participation– Over 100 individuals contributing at some level

• The Solar Vision Study is scheduled to be completed during the summer of 2010.

Slide 2


Report Outline

1. Introduction / Executive Summary2. Solar Energy Market Evolution and Technical Potential3. Analysis of Solar Growth Scenarios4. Solar Photovoltaics: Technologies, Cost, and Performance5. Concentrating Solar Power: Technologies, Cost, and

Performance6. Solar Heating and Cooling: Technologies, Cost, and

Performance7. Integration of Solar into the U.S. Electric Power System 8. Solar Power Environmental Impacts and Siting Challenges 9. Solar Industry Financial Issues and Opportunities10. Solar Policy Options11. Appendix: Analysis Assumptions

Slide 3


Solar Capacity Growth in 10% and 20% Scenarios

Slide 4


0100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,300

2010 Capacity

10% Reference

10% Vision 20% Reference

20% Vision

Gen

erat

ion

Capa

city

(G

W)

Storage

Distributed PV

Utility PV

CSP

Wind

Other

Hydro

Oil-gas-steam

Gas-CT

Gas-CC

Coal

Nuclear

U.S. Electricity Generation Capacity in 2030

Slide 5


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2010 Gen. 10% Reference

10% Vision 20% Reference

20% Vision

Elec

tric

ity G

ener

atio

n (T

Wh)

Storage

Distributed PV

Utility PV

CSP

Wind

Other

Hydro

Oil-gas-steam

Gas-CT

Gas-CC

Coal

Nuclear

U.S. Electricity Generation, 2030

Slide 6


Analysis also Included Unit Commitment and Dispatch Modeling (using GridView)

• Simulate physical and financial operation of electric power system– Hourly chronological– Commits and dispatches units based on:

• Electricity demand• Operating parameters of generators• Transmission grid parameters

• Uses– Commit units in the day-ahead market– Dispatch units in real-time– System planning

• Transmission and generation

Slide 7


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

May-18 00:00

May-18 12:00

May-19 00:00

May-19 12:00

May-20 00:00

May-20 12:00

May-21 00:00

May-21 12:00

Pow

er (G

W)

Curtailment

PV

CSP

Wind

Other

Hydro

Gas-CT

Gas-CC

Coal

Nuclear

Load

Example Spring Dispatch (GridView Output )

Slide 8

• Hourly simulations shows CSP, hydro, gas, and coal cycling.

• Also shows mid-day curtailment.

• Most (~ 2/3rds) of system curtailment occurs in spring.

• WECC has highest level of curtailment.

GridView-Simulated National Mean Dispatch Stack 4 Spring Days, 20% Scenario in 2030


Patterns of Supply and Demand in the 20% Vision Scenario

Slide 9

• Regions with significant CSP (southwest) and wind (northern plains) are frequently export regions.

• Additional transmission investment required is about 5% and 13% above the reference cases.

Mean Transmitted Energy for the 20% Vision Scenario in 2030

Note: Net exporting (red) and importing (blue) regions and interregional energy transmission (arrows).


Cost of Achieving the Vision Scenarios

Slide 10

• The additional investment in renewable generation capacity is mostly offset by savings in fuel and conventional capacity.

• Impact on the price of retail electricity is relatively small, about 0.1 ¢/kWh and 0.9 ¢/kWh respectively.

Total Electric Sector Costs for the Reference and Vision Scenarios

Note: Includes all costs through 2030 plus fuel and O&M costs through 2050.

+ 5% + 15%


Environmental Benefits

Slide 11

• By 2030, the 10% and 20% Vision scenarios result in annual reductions of 170 and 600 million metric tons of CO2, respectively.

• This is equivalent to displacing the annual emissions from 30–100 million cars.

Annual Electric-Sector CO2 Emissions

- 7%

+ 28%


Expected Key Messages & Insights

• Meeting 10% or 20% of U.S. electricity needs with solar energy by 2030 is feasible and does not require technological breakthroughs, untried policies, or unprecedented growth rates.

• 10% scenario is achievable with the current electricity infrastructure; 20% scenario would require significant transmission expansion and grid operations advancement.

• Siting poses significant, but not insurmountable, challenges to achieving the 20% scenario.

• Financing growth on supply chain/corporate side is not an issue, however, on the project side will need to move beyond tax equity markets to meet targets.

• The Vision scenarios would result in a 7% to 28% reduction in U.S. CO2 emission from electricity generation by 2030.

• The overall U.S. solar workforce is expected to increase from about 14,000 in 2009 to 260,000 in 2030 for the 10% Vision scenario and to 410,000 for the 20% Vision scenario.

Slide 12

U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program May 24, 2010 Slide 13

Thank You

Slide 13Slide 13

Contact Information:

Robert M. MargolisSenior Energy AnalystNational Renewable Energy Laboratory

Email: [email protected]: 202-488-2222on the web: www.nrel.gov/analysis

Documents

Solar Vision Study Overview - US Department of EnergySolar Vision Study Overview Robert Margolis National Renewable Energy Laboratory Solar Energy Technologies Program Annual Program