Solar Shield - Forecasting and Mitigating Solar Effects on Power Transmissions Systems Pulkkinen, A., M. Hesse, S. Habib, F. Policelli, B. Damsky, L. Van

Solar Shield - Forecasting and Mitigating Solar Effects on

Power Transmissions Systems

Solar Shield - Forecasting and Mitigating Solar Effects on

Power Transmissions Systems

Pulkkinen, A., M. Hesse, S. Habib, F. Policelli, B. Damsky, L. Van der Zel, D. Fugate, W. Jacobs

April 29, 2008, Space Weather Workshop, Boulder, CO


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OverviewOverview

• In Solar Shield, we develop an experimental system to forecast space weather effects on the North American power grid; project funded by NASA’s Applied Sciences Program.

• Focus on first-principles-based space weather modeling.

• NASA/GSFC/CCMC and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) the key players.



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Geomagnetically induced current (GIC)Geomagnetically induced current (GIC)

Societal effects Societal effects



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• GIC causes saturation of power transformers:

• Transformer damage

• Electric blackout

Prior warnings of large GIC are needed.Prior warnings of large GIC are needed.

System requirements (summary)

System requirements (summary)

• Two-level GIC forecasts:– Level 1 providing 1-2 day lead-time.– Level 2 providing 30-60 min. lead-

time.

• Coupling to EPRI’s SUNBURST decision support tool.



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Used by the electric power transmission industry to mitigate GIC.

Level 1 forecastsLevel 1 forecasts



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Solar observations of eruptive events are used to compute “cone model” parameters. NASA/ESA SOHO/LASCO data used.

Solar observations of eruptive events are used to compute “cone model” parameters. NASA/ESA SOHO/LASCO data used.

Plasma “cone” introduced to the inner boundary of a heliospheric MHD model (ENLIL). Model propagates the disturbance to the Earth. Computations carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

Plasma “cone” introduced to the inner boundary of a heliospheric MHD model (ENLIL). Model propagates the disturbance to the Earth. Computations carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

MHD output at the Earth used in a statistical model providing probabilistic estimate for GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated.

MHD output at the Earth used in a statistical model providing probabilistic estimate for GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated.

Level 1 exampleLevel 1 example



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Lagrange 1 observations used as boundary conditions for magnetospheric MHD. NASA’s ACE data used.

Lagrange 1 observations used as boundary conditions for magnetospheric MHD. NASA’s ACE data used.

Magnetospheric MHD model (BATS-R-US) used to model the magnetospheric-ionospheric dynamics. Computations carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

Magnetospheric MHD model (BATS-R-US) used to model the magnetospheric-ionospheric dynamics. Computations carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

Magnetospheric MHD output used to drive geomagnetic induction and GIC code providing GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated.

Magnetospheric MHD output used to drive geomagnetic induction and GIC code providing GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated.

Level 2 forecast exampleLevel 2 forecast example



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Coupling to the SUNBURST decision support tool

Coupling to the SUNBURST decision support tool



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% Level 1 GIC forecast produced by REALTIMEGIC_LEVEL1%% The format of the data is as follows: % 0 0 0 0 0 lat1 lon1 lat2 lon2 . . .% yy mm dd hh mi GIC1low GIC1high GIC2low GIC2high . . .% 0 0 0 0 53.16 -99.29 45.39 -68.532006 12 14 14 6 76 15 153

% Level 2 GIC forecast produced by REALTIMEGIC_LEVEL2% % The format of the data is as follows: % 0 0 0 0 0 0 lat1 lon1 lat2 lon2 . . .% yy1 mm1 dd1 hh1 mi1 ss1 GIC1 0 GIC2 0 . . .% yy1 mm1 dd1 hh1 mi1 ss1 GIC1 0 GIC2 0 . . .% . . . . . . . . . . . . .% . . . . . . . . . . . . .% . . . . . . . . . . . . .% 0 0 0 0 0 0 53.16 -99.29 45.39 -68.532008 03 19 11 02 31 -0.11 0.00 0.13 0.00 2008 03 19 11 04 31 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.00 2008 03 19 11 06 31 -0.02 0.00 0.04 0.00 2008 03 19 11 08 31 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00

SummarySummary

• Solar Shield designs and establishes an experimental two-level GIC forecasting system that utilizes first-principles-based space weather modeling; final product of the project are recommendations for an optimal system.

• Level 1 and 2 GIC draft forecasts are being generated in real-time. Optimization and validation of the forecast system underway.

• Coupling to the SUNBURST DST and evaluation of the economic value of the forecasting system underway.



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Documents

Solar Shield - Forecasting and Mitigating Solar Effects on Power Transmissions Systems Pulkkinen, A., M. Hesse, S. Habib, F. Policelli, B. Damsky, L. Van