SOLAR CHANGES AND THE CLIMATE

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow, USA

ABSTRACT

This paper looks at the many different candidate ways the sun may play a role in climate. The IPCC has dismissed the sun as the primary driver based on the small observed changes of solar brightness or irradiance in the 11 year cycle. However, they admitted that indirect solar forcings through variations in ultraviolet, geomagnetic, the solar wind and  solar induced modulation of galactic cosmic rays remained plausible. Recent major changes in solar behavior if they progress as many solar scientists suggest to levels similar to the Dalton or even Maunder Minimum will provide a test as to whether indeed sun and not greenhouse gases are the dominant climate driver through a combination of direct and indirect factors.

INTRODUCTION

The IPCC AR4 discussed some of the research on the direct solar irradiance variance and the uncertainties related to indirect solar influences through variance through the solar cycles of ultraviolet and solar wind/geomagnetic activity. They admit that ultraviolet radiation by warming through ozone chemistry and geomagnetic activity through the reduction of cosmic rays and through that low clouds could have an effect on climate but in the end chose to ignore the indirect effect. They stated:

“Since TAR, new studies have confirmed and advanced the plausibility of indirect effects involving the modification of the stratosphere by solar UV irradiance variations (and possibly by solar-induced variations in the overlying mesosphere and lower thermosphere), with subsequent dynamical and radiative coupling to the troposphere. Whether solar wind fluctuations (Boberg and Lundstedt, 2002) or solar-induced heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays (Marsh and Svensmark, 2000b) also contribute indirect forcings remains ambiguous.” (AR4 2.7.1.3)

For the total solar forcing, in the end the AR4 chose to ignore the considerable recent peer review in favor of Wang et al. (2005) who used an untested flux transport model with variable meridional flow hypothesis and reduced the net long term variance of direct solar irradiance since the mini-ice age around 1750 by up to a factor of 7. This may ultimately prove to be AR4’s version of the AR3’s “hockey stick” debacle.

Though AR5 gave even more attention to the other possible solar amplifiers, they defended the model assumption that the greenhouse gases were the principle driver.

“SC 23 showed an activity decline not previously seen in the satellite era (McComas et al., 2008; Smith and Balogh, 2008; Russell et al., 2010). Most current estimations suggest that the forthcoming solar cycles will have lower TSI than those for the past 30 years (Abreu et al., 2008; Lockwood et al., 2009; Rigozo et al., 2010; Russell et al., 2010). Also there are indications that the mean magnetic field in sunspots may be diminishing on decadal level. A linear expansion of the current trend may indicate that of the order of half the sunspot activity may disappear by about 2015 (Penn and Livingston, 2006). These studies only suggest that the Sun may have left the 20th century grand maximum and not that it is entering another grand minimum…However, much more evidence is needed and at present there is very low confidence concerning future solar forcing estimates. Nevertheless, even if there is such decrease in the solar activity, there is a high confidence that the TSI Radiative Forcing variations will be much smaller in magnitude than the projected increased forcing due to GHG.”

EARTH-SUN CONNECTION

The sun is the ultimate source of all the energy on Earth; its rays heat the planet and drive the churning motions of its atmosphere. The amount of energy, which the sun H emits varies over an 11-year cycle (this cycle also governs the extent and strength of sunspotsUH on the sun's surface as well as radiation storms that can wreck havoc with satellites and electric grids), but that cycle changes the total amount of energy reaching Earth by only about 0.1 percent (though this latest unusually weak minimum the drop was 0.15%). This has presented a conundrum for meteorologists explaining whether and how such a small variation could drive major changes in weather patterns on Earth.

Though the sun’s brightness or irradiance changes only slightly with the solar cycles, the indirect effects of enhanced solar activity including warming of the atmosphere in low and mid latitudes by ozone reactions due to increased ultraviolet radiation, in higher latitudes by geomagnetic activity and generally by increased solar radiative forcing due to less clouds caused by cosmic ray reduction may greatly magnify the total solar effect on temperatures.

The following is an assessment of the ways the sun MAY influence weather and climate on short and long time scales.

THE SUN PLAYS A ROLE IN OUR CLIMATE IN DIRECT AND INDIRECT WAYS.

The sun changes in its activity on time scales that vary from 27 days to 11, 22, 80, 106, 212 years and more. A more active sun is brighter due to the dominance of faculae over cooler sunspots with the result that the irradiance emitted by the sun and received by the earth is higher during active solar periods than during quiet solar periods. The amount of change of the solar irradiance based on satellite measurements since 1978 during the course of the 11 year cycle just 0.1% (Willson and Hudson 1988) has caused many to conclude that the solar effect is negligible especially in recent years. So-called cycle 23 as noted has seen a decline of 0.15%.

Over the ultra long cycles (since the Maunder minimum), irradiance changes are estimated to be as high as 0.4%  (Hoyt and Schatten (1993), Lean et al. (1995), Lean (2000), Lockwood and Stamper (1999) and Fligge and Solanki (2000)).

However this does not take into account the sun’s eruptional activity (flares, solar wind bursts from coronal mass ejections and solar wind bursts from coronal holes), which may have a much greater effect. This takes on more importance since Lockwood et al. (1999) showed how the total magnetic flux leaving the sun has increased by a factor of 2.3 since 1901. This eruptional activity may enhance warming through ultraviolet induced ozone chemical reactions in the high atmosphere or ionization in higher latitudes during solar induced geomagnetic storms. In addition, the work of Svensmark (1997), Bago and Butler (2000) Tinsley and Yu (2002) have documented the possible effects of the solar cycle on cosmic rays and through them the amount of low cloudiness. It may be that through these other indirect factors, solar variance is a much more important driver for climate change than currently assumed. Because, it is more easily measured and generally we find eruptional activity tracking well with the solar irradiance, many (including Scafetta, Soon) have used solar irradiance measurements as a surrogate or proxy for the total solar effect.

CORRELATIONS WITH TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE

Studies vary on the importance of direct solar irradiance especially in recent decades. Lockwood and Stamper (GRL 1999), estimated that changes in solar luminosity can account for 52% of the change in temperatures from 1910 to 1960 but just 31% of the change from 1970 to 1999.

Scafetta etal (2006) showed how total solar irradiance accounted for up to 50% of the warming since 1900 and 25-35% since 1980. The authors noted the recent departures may result “from spurious non-climatic contamination of the surface observations such as heat-island and land-use effects [Pielke et al., 2002; Kalnay and Cai, 2003]”. Their analysis was done using the global data bases which may also suffer from station dropout and improper adjustment for missing data which increased in the 1990s, no adjustments for urban heat island contamination and uncertainty on how to seamlessly integrate the

evolving ocean temperature data sources. In 2007, in their follow up paper in the GRL, they noted the sun could account for as much as 69% of the changes since 1900.

The original USHCN data base though regional in nature would have been a better station data base to use for analysis of change as it is more stable, has less missing data and a better scheme for adjusting for missing data, as well as some adjustments for changes to siting and importantly for urbanization (removed in subsequent versions).

An independent analysis was conducted using the USHCN data and TSI data obtained from Hoyt and Schatten. The annual TSI composite record was constructed by Hoyt and Schatten [1993] (and updated in 2005) utilizing all five historical proxies of solar irradiance including sunspot cycle amplitude, sunspot cycle length, solar equatorial rotation rate, fraction of penumbral spots, and decay rate of the 11-year sunspot cycle.

The following includes a plot of the 11-year running mean solar irradiance versus a similar 11-year running mean of NCDC USHCN v1 annual mean US temperatures. It confirms this strong correlation (r-squared of 0.59). The correlation increased to an r-squared value of 0.654 if you introduce a lag of 3 years for the mean USHCN data to the mean TSI. This is close to the 5 year lag suggested by Wigley and used by Scafetta and West. The highest correlation occurred with a 3 year lag.

Figure 1: USHCN Annual Mean Temperature (11 year running mean) correlated with Hoyt-Schatten Total Solar Irradiance (also 11 year running mean).

In recent years, satellite missions designed to measure changes in solar irradiance though promising have produced there own set of problems. As Judith Lean noted the problems is that no one sensor collected data over the entire time period from 1979 “forcing a splicing of from different instruments , each with their own accuracy and reliability issues, only some of which we are able to account for”. Lean and Froelich in their 1998 GRL paper gave their assessment, which suggested no increase in solar irradiance in the 1980s and 1990s.

Richard Willson, principal investigator of NASA’s ACRIM experiments though in the GRL in 2003 was able to find specific errors in the dataset used by Lean and Froelich used to bridge the gap between the ACRIM satellites and when the more accurate data set was used a trend of 0.05% per decade was seen which could account for warming since 1979 (figure 2).

Figure 2: Richard Willson (ACRIMSAT) Composite TSI showing trend of +0.05%/decade from successive solar minima

Two other recent studies that have drawn clear connections between solar changes and the Earth’s climate are Soon (2005) and Kärner (2004). Soon (2005 GRL) showed how the arctic temperatures (the arctic of course has no urbanization contamination)

correlated with solar irradiance far better than with the greenhouse gases over the last century (see Figure 3). For the 10 year running mean of total solar irradiance (TSI) vs Arctic-wide air temperature anomalies (Polyokov), he found a strong correlation of (r-squared of 0.79) compared to a correlation vs greenhouse gases of just 0.22.

Figure 3. Arctic Basin wide air temperatures (Polyokov) correlated with Hoyt Schatten Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and with annual average CO2 (Soon 2005)

WARMING DUE TO ULTRAVIOLET EFFECTS THROUGH OZONE CHEMISTRY

Though solar irradiance varies slightly over the 11-year cycle, radiation at longer UV wavelengths are known to increase by several (6-8% or more) percent with still larger changes (factor of two or more) at extremely short UV and X-ray wavelengths (Baldwin and Dunkerton, JAS 2004).

Energetic flares increase the UV radiation by 16%. Ozone in the stratosphere absorbs this excess energy and this heat has been shown to propagate downward and affect the general circulation in the troposphere. Shindell (1999) used a climate model that included ozone chemistry to reproduce this warming during high flux (high UV) years. Labitzke and van Loon (1988) and later Labitzke in numerous papers has shown that high flux

(which correlates very well with UV) produces a warming in low and middle latitudes in winter in the stratosphere with subsequent dynamical and radiative coupling to the troposphere. The winter of 2001/02, when cycle 23 had a very strong high flux second maxima (figure 4) provided a perfect verification of Shindell and Labitzke and Van Loon’s work (figure 5).

Figure 4: NOAA SEC solar flux (10.7cm) during cycle 23. Note the second solar max with extremely high flux from September 2001 to April 2002.

Figure 5: Labitzke correlated stratospheric heights with solar flux and actual height anomalies in the mid-troposphere during the high flux mode of the second solar max in early 2002.

The warming that took place with the high flux from September 2001 to April 2002 caused the northern winter polar vortex to shrink (figure 5) and the southern summer vortex to break into two centers for the first time ever observed. This disrupted the flow patterns and may have contributed to the brief summer breakup of the Larsen ice sheet (figures 6, 7 and 8).

Figure 6: NASA NSIDC satellite derived Total Antarctic ice extent anomalies from 1979 to 2005. Note the dropoff with the Larsen ice sheet break-up in the summer of 2002 corresponding to major atmospheric changes during the high flux second solar max.

Figure 7: December 2001 to January 2002 500mb height anomalies for Southern Hemisphere. Note the ring of warming with the high flux induced UV ozone chemistry as a ring surrounding a shrunken polar vortex as seen in the Northern Hemisphere in figure 2. Note how the vortex actually became a dipole with weakness in center. The changing winds and currents very likely contributed to the ice break of the Larsen ice sheet.

Figure 8: Larsen ice sheet break up late summer 2000 following strong solar flux break-up of southern polar vortex.

HUNASA reportedUH on the use of the Shindell (1999) Ozone Chemistry Climate Model to explain the Maunder Minimum (Little Ice Age) (figure 9).

Figure 9: Shindell ozone chemistry model forecast of the difference between the quiet solar period of the Maunder Minimum and the active late 18th century.

Their model showed when the sun was quiet in 1680, it was much colder than when it became active again one hundred years later. “During this period, very few sunspots appeared on the surface of the Sun, and the overall brightness of the Sun decreased slightly. Already in the midst of a colder-than-average period called the Little Ice Age, Europe and North America went into a deep freeze: alpine glaciers extended over valley farmland; sea ice crept south from the Arctic; and the famous canals in the Netherlands froze regularly - an event that is rare today.”

Writing in HEnvironmental Research LettersH (2010), Mike Lockwood et al. verified that solar activity does seem to have a direct correlation with Earth's climate by influencing North Atlantic blocking (NAO) as Shindell has shown. The reason that the scope of the study is limited to that area, or at most Europe, is that it is one of the few regions that there is a reliable, continuous temperature record going back to the Little Ice Age. They noted further

“solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century. The Maunder minimum (about 1650–1700) was a prolonged episode of low solar activity, which coincided with more severe winters in the United Kingdom and continental Europe. Motivated by recent relatively cold winters in the UK, we investigate the possible connection with solar activity. We identify regionally anomalous cold winters by detrending the Central England temperature (CET) record using reconstructions of the northern hemisphere mean temperature.

We show that cold winter excursions from the hemispheric trend occur more commonly in the UK during low solar activity, consistent with the solar influence on the occurrence of persistent blocking events in the eastern Atlantic. We stress that this is a regional and seasonal effect relating to European winters and not a global effect. Average solar activity has declined rapidly since 1985 and cosmogenic isotopes suggest an 8% chance of a return to Maunder minimum conditions within the next 50 years (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303–29): the results presented here indicate that, despite hemispheric warming, the UK and Europe could experience more cold winters than during recent decades.”

We note the NAO has ties to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and together they have far greater influence on hemisphere than implied. The 2009/10 winter with a record negative arctic oscillation and persistent negative NAO (figure 10) was the coldest in the UK and the southeastern United States since 1977/78, coldest in Scotland since 1962/63, coldest ever recorded in parts of Siberia. Coldest weather since 1971/72 was reported in parts of North China.

Figure 10: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) tracks well with the solar activity, most specifically with the Ap geomagnetic index that tends to lag the solar sunspot cycle. A very quiet sun is characterized by persistent periods of a negative NAO and usually the AO most notably in winter

The AR5 expanded on the AR4 discussion of the potential role UV has in cyclical changes in global temperatures including the global warming from 1979 to 1998, they simply admitted modeling of this effect was not yet ‘robust’.

“As UV heating of the stratosphere over a SC has the potential to influence the troposphere indirectly, through dynamic coupling, and therefore climate (Haigh, 1996; Gray et al., 2010), the UV may have a more significant impact on climate than changes in TSI alone would suggest. Although this indicates that metrics based only on TSI are not appropriate, UV measurements present several controversial issues and modelling is not yet robust.” (AR5 8.4.1.4.2)

TROPICAL EFFECTS

Elsner at al. (2010) found the probability of three or more hurricanes hitting the United States goes up drastically during low points of the 11-year sunspot cycle. Years with few sunspots and above-normal ocean temperatures spawn a less stable atmosphere and, consequently, more hurricanes, according to the researchers. Years with more sunspots and above-normal ocean temperatures yield a more stable atmosphere and thus fewer hurricanes (figure 11). Between the high and low of the sunspot cycle, radiation can vary more than 10 percent in parts of the ultraviolet range, Elsner has found. When there are more sunspots and therefore ultraviolet radiation, the warmer ozone layer heats the atmosphere below.

The sun's yearly average radiance during its 11-year cycle only changes about one-tenth of one percent, according to NASA's Earth Observatory. But the warming in the ozone layer can be much more profound, because ozone absorbs ultraviolet radiation. Between the high and low of the sunspot cycle, radiation can vary more than 10 percent in parts of the ultraviolet range, Elsner has found. When there are more sunspots and therefore ultraviolet radiation, the warmer ozone layer heats the atmosphere below. Their latest paper shows evidence that increased UV light from solar activity can influence a hurricane's power even on a daily basis.

Figure 11: Research by Robert Hodges and Jim Elsner of Florida State University found the probability of three or more hurricanes hitting the United States goes up drastically during low points of the 11-year sunspot cycle, such as we're in now. Years with few sunspots and above-normal ocean temperatures spawn a less stable atmosphere and, consequently, more hurricanes, according to the researchers. Years with more sunspots and above-normal ocean temperatures yield a more stable atmosphere and thus fewer hurricanes

OTHER EFFECTS

Meehl et al. (2009) found that chemicals (ozone) in the stratosphere and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean respond during solar maximum in a way that amplifies the sun's influence on some aspects of air movement. This can intensify winds and rainfall, change sea surface temperatures and cloud cover over certain tropical and subtropical regions, and ultimately influence global weather. An international team of scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) used more than a century of weather observations and three powerful computer models to tackle this question.

The answer, the new study found, has to do with the Sun's impact on two seemingly unrelated regions: water in the tropical Pacific Ocean and air in the stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere that runs from around 6 miles (10 km) above Earth's surface to about 31 miles (50 km).

The study found that chemicals in the stratosphere and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean respond during solar maximum in a way that amplifies the sun's influence on some aspects of air movement. This can intensify winds and rainfallU, change sea surface temperatures and cloud cover over certain tropical and subtropical regions, and ultimately influence global weather.

"The sun, the stratosphere, and the oceans are connected in ways that can influence events such as winter rainfall in North America," said lead author of the study, Gerald Meehl of NCAR. "Understanding the role of the solar cycle can provide added insight as scientists work toward predicting regional weather patterns for the next couple of decades."

Weather patterns across the globe are partly affected by connections between the 11-year solar cycle of activity, Earth's stratosphere and the tropical Pacific Ocean, the new study finds. The study could help scientists get an edge on eventually predicting the intensity of certain climate phenomenaUH, such as the Indian monsoon and tropical Pacific rainfall, years in advance.

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND HIGH LATITUDE WARMING

When major eruptive activity (i.e. coronal mass ejections, major flares) takes place and the charged particles encounter the earth, ionization in the high atmosphere leads to the familiar and beautiful aurora phenomenon. This ionization lads to warming of the high atmosphere which like ultraviolet warming of the stratosphere works its way down into the middle troposphere with time.

Here (figure 12) is an example of an upper level chart two weeks after a major geomagnetic storm. Note the ring of warmth (higher than normal mid-tropospheric heights) surrounding the magnetic pole.

Figure 12. Anomaly at 500mb two weeks after a major geomagnetic storm in 2005. Warmth seen in approximate location and shape of auroral ring.

SOLAR WINDS, COSMIC RAYS AND CLOUDS

A key aspect of the sun’s effect on climate is the indirect effect on the flux of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) into the atmosphere. GCR is an ionizing radiation that supports low cloud formation. As the sun’s output increases the solar wind shields the atmosphere from GCR flux. Consequently, the increased solar irradiance is accompanied by reduced low cloud cover, amplifying the climatic effect. Likewise when solar output declines, increased GCR flux enters the atmosphere, increasing low cloudiness and adding to the cooling effect associated with the diminished solar energy.

The conjectured mechanism connecting GCR flux to cloud formation received experimental confirmation in the recent laboratory experiments of Svensmark (Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series A, October 2006), in which he demonstrated exactly how cosmic rays could make water droplet clouds.

Palle Bago and Butler showed in 2002 (Intl J Climate.) how the low clouds in all global regions changed with the 11 year cycle in inverse relation to the solar activity. Changes of 1 to 2% in low cloudiness could have a significant effect on temperatures through chnges in albedo. (used in figure 13)

Figure 13: Cosmic ray neutrons are inversely proportional to solar activity and directly proportional to low cloudiness (from Palle-Bago and Butler 2002)

Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen published a reply to Lockwood and Fröhlich - The persistent role of the Sun in climate forcing, rebutting Mike Lockwood'sHURecent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperatureUH. In it, they correlated tropospheric temperature with cosmic rays. The figure 14 features two graphs. The first graph compares tropospheric temperature (blue) to cosmic rays (red). The second graph removes El Nino, volcanoes and a linear warming trend of 0.14°C per decade.Figure 14: Tropospheric cosmic rays versus radiosonde temperature anomalies raw and bottom filtered and detrended (Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen)

Jasper Kirkby of CERN as an introduction to CERN's CLOUD experiment which "aims to study and quantify the cosmic ray-cloud mechanism in a controlled laboratory experiment" and answer " the question of whether–and to what extent–the climate is

influenced by solar/cosmic ray variability" found compelling evidence that indeed there could be such a connection. In figures 15 and 16 you can see empirical evidence that that connection is real.

Figure 15: Jasper Kirkby of CERN as an introduction to CERN's CLOUD experiment summarized the state of the understanding

Figure 16: Jasper Kirkby of CERN show excellent correlations of galactic cosmic rays and temperatures for the Northern Hemisphere, Greenland, Tropical Andes and Austria.

Cosmic ray influence appears on the extremely long geologic time scales. Shaviv (JGR 2005 estimated from the combination of increased radiative forcing through cosmic ray reduction and the estimated changes in total solar luminosity (irradiance) over the last century that the sun could be responsible for up to 77% of the temperature changes over the 20th century with 23% for the anthropogenic. He also found the correlation extended back in the ice core data 500 million years (figures 17)

Figure 17: Shaviv Cosmic ray flux plus irradiance versus geological reconstruction of temperatures

The AR5 again evaluated the factor but again concluded with high confidence the solar modulated cosmic ray flux was not affecting temperatures in a climatologically significant way.

“The Effects of Cosmic Rays on Clouds Changing cloud amount or properties modify the Earth’s albedo and therefore affect climate. It has been hypothesized that cosmic ray flux create atmospheric ions which facilitates aerosol nucleation and new particle formation with a further impact on cloud formation (Dickinson, 1975; Kirkby, 2007). High solar activity means a stronger heliospheric magnetic field and thus a more efficient screen against cosmic rays. Under the hypothesis underlined above, the reduced cosmic ray flux would promote fewer clouds amplifying the warming effect expected from high solar activity. There is evidence from laboratory, field and modelling studies that ionization from cosmic ray flux may enhance aerosol nucleation in the free troposphere (Merikanto et al., 2009; Mirme et al., 2010; Kirkby et al., 2011). However, there is high confidence (medium evidence and high agreement) that the cosmic ray– ionization mechanism is too weak to influence global concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei or their change over the last century or during a SC in a climatically significant way (Harrison and Ambaum, 2010; Erlykin and Wolfendale, 2011; Snow-Kropla et al., 2011).” (AR5 8.4.1.5)

MaMa

Yu etal (2014) found the effect of solar cycle perturbation through the influence of Global Cosmic Rays (GCR) on cloud condensation nuclei is generally higher than those reported in several previous studies, up to around one order of magnitude (figure 18).

Figure 18: A schematic illustration of a mechanism amplifying the effect of solar variability through the influence of GCR ionization and temperature on particle formation and a positive nucleation feedback (enhanced solar activity → more TSI and less GCR → reduced nucleation and aerosol abundance → less aerosol cooling → increased temperature). (Yu etal. 2014)

Cosmic rays according to NASA recently reached a space age high (figure 19).

Figure 19:NASA depicted cosmic ray monitoring showing that the number of particles

was approximately 19.4% higher than any other time since 1951.

THROWBACK SOLAR CYCLES 23 AND 24

In NASA’s David Hathaway’s own words, cycle 23 has been a cycle like we have not seen in century or more. The irradiance dropped 50% more than recent cycles (figure 20), the solar wind was at the lowest levels of the satellite age.

Figure 20: The irradiance in cycle 23 dropped about 50% more than prior minima (with a change of near 0.15% from maxima).(NASA)

The IPCC AR5 (figure 21) showed a reconstruction of the solar irradiance going back 400 years showing the rise from the Maunder Minimum in the 1600 to early 1700s then a rise with a dip during the Dalton Minimum inn the early 1800s before rising to the Grand Maximum in the late 20th century. It too shows the drop off in the last two cycles.

Figure 21: The SORCE TSI historical reconstruction back to 1600 based on an historical TSI reconstruction by N. Krivova et al (2010), Ball (2012 and Yeo (2014) used in the IPCC AR5 Working Group I’s Assessment Report replaced by SORCE/TIM annual averages from 2003 onward.

Figure 22 shows the monthly and 11 year mean sunspot numbers for the last three cycles. Note how cycle 23 declined 25% from cycle 22 and cycle 24 declined by another 33%.

Figure 22: The sunspot peaks declined 25% from cycle 22 to 23 and 33% more from 23 to 24 (NASA – Hathaway)

There were over 800 sunspotless days, well more than double those of the recent cycles with three years 2007, 2008 and 2009 ranking among the top 20 years for most sunspotless days (figure 23). The cycle lasted 3 years longer than cycle 22, longest since cycle 6 that peaked in 1810 (figure 24).

Figure 23. In the last solar minimum, three years (2007, 2008, 2009) ranked in the top 20 most sunspotless day years since 1850

Top Sunspotless Day Years 1849-2009

0

50100

150200

250300

350

1913

1901

1878

2008

2009

1856

1902

1912

1954

1933

1855

1867

1879

1889

1923

1911

1876

1890

1996

2007

Figure 24. The length of cycle 23 (minimum to minimum) was 12.6 years, the greatest since cycles in the Dalton Minimum. The maximum to maximum length from cycle 23 to 24 was close to 14 years.

Historically, cycle length has correlated well with temperatures (figure 25). With a lag of 5 or more years, one would expect a precipitous decline in global temperatures shortly.

Figure 25. Historically, the North American temperatures have correlated well with solar cycle length. Note the rapid increase in length for the cycle 23, implying an upcoming cooling. (first identified in Friis-Christensen etal 1991)

THE ‘PAUSE’ AND PROJECTIONS

Global temperatures as measured by satellite, weather balloons and most station data sets has seen a cessation of the warming observed from 1979 to 1998 for in excess of 18 years (figure 26), Annual temperatures have flatlined and in many locations winter temperatures have declined for more than 20 years.

Figure 26: Satellites and weather balloons and most surface station data sets have shown no warming (called a pause) for 18 plus years, even as CO2 has increased. This corresponds to the start of a decline in solar activity.

Many explanations (excuses) for why this has occurred despite the 11% increase in CO2 levels. They include clouds, aerosols, arctic ice changes, ocean cycles and the sun. These are all factors that we use to successfully predict climate on a multi seasonal basis. Whereas it may be that feedbacks such as water vapor changes and cloud changes are incorrectly modeled and play a role, the changes in the sun over time have tracked with the temperatures globally (including the oceans) better than the CO2 (figure 30).

Clilverd etal (2006) successfully forecast the decline in cycles 23 and 24 using a statistical model of past cycles. His regression based statistical model projected a minimum rivaling at least the Dalton Minimum, a quiet sun cold period in the early 1800s (figure 27).

Figure 27: Clilverd et al (2007) did a regression analysis of the various solar cycles and built a model that showed skill in predicting past cycles. The model suggests a Dalton like minimum should have started as evidence shows it may have..

Figure 28: Long term solar sunspot activity shows cyclical behavior with relative minim in the early 1900s, a deeper one in the early 1800s (Dalton Minimum) and a very deep long one in the 1600s (Maunder Minimum). Note the grand ‘modern maximum’ in the 20th century, which we have been descending from the last two cycles.

The Russian Pulkovo Observatory believes a Maunder like minimum (figure 28) is possible (Abdussamatov, 2012, 2013), commencing in 2014 and becoming most severe around 2055. Abdussamatov (2012) quantified declining trend Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and predicts further bicentennial based declining TSI. Abdussamatov (2013) predicts global cooling due to declining Total Solar Irradiance and evidence of global CO2 lagging temperature. He models a Maunder-type Minimum around 2043 with deep cooling like the Little Ice Age around 2060 (figure 29).

Figure 29: The Russian Pulkovo Observatory believes a Maunder like minimum is possible (Abdussamatov, 2012, 2013), commencing in 2014 and becoming most severe around 2055.

SECULAR CYCLES – COMBINED NATURAL FACTORS

Temperature trends coincides with the ocean and solar TSI cyclical trends as can be seen in figure 30 that overlays standardized ocean temperature configuration indices (PDO + AMO and Hoyt Schatten/Willson TSI and USHCN version 2 temperatures. The 60 year cycle clearly emerges including that observed warming trend. The similarity with the ocean multidecadal cycle phases also suggest the sun play a role in their oscillatory behavior. Scafetta (2010) presents compelling evidence for this 60 year cyclical behavior.

Figure 30: Solar TSI (Hoyt/Schatten TSI calibrated to Willson AMCRIMSAT TSI) and PDO+AMO (STD) versus the USHCN annual plots (polynomial smoothed plots superimposed)

Dr. Don Easterbrook has used the various options of a 60 year repeat of the mid 20th century solar/ocean induced cooling, Dalton Minimum and a Maunder Minimum scenarios to present this empirical forecast range of options in figure 31.

Figure 31: Projected future temperatures from the IPCC, to ocean/solar 60 year cycle cooling, to a Dalton minima to a Maunder minima. (Easterbrook 2010)

SEA CHANGE SUPPORTS SOLAR INFLUENCES

Shaviv (2008) showed additional empirical evidence that the sun’s influence on climate is very large, much larger than expected from variations in the Total Solar Irradiance — the only solar forcing that is considered by the IPCC. The full forcing, which is large, can be quantified by studying the sea level as it is linked to heat going into the oceans and therefore the radiative forcings through thermal expansion.

This can be seen in the figure 32, where the tide-gauges-based sea level change rate is seen to vary in sync with the solar cycle, averaging close to 2 mm a year. The amount of heat inferred from this large correlation corresponds to at least six times the forcing of the irradiance alone. However, this empirical evidence and its implications are ignored in models considered by the IPCC.

Figure 32: Sea level change rate (mm/year versus reconstructed solar flux (watts per square meter since 1920 (Shaviv).

SUMMARY:

Though the sun’s brightness or irradiance changes only slightly with the solar cycles, the indirect effects of enhanced solar activity including warming of the atmosphere in low and mid latitudes by ozone reactions due to increased ultraviolet radiation, in higher latitudes by geomagnetic activity and generally by increased radiative forcing due to less clouds caused by cosmic ray reduction may greatly magnify the total solar effect on temperatures (figure 33). The total solar forcing is likely greatly underestimated in IPCC reports while the greenhouse effect greatly exaggerated (figure 34).

Figure 33: The total solar effect including amplifiers versus the IPCC brightness (irradiance) based forcing

Figure 34: The evidence of the temperatures related to the solar changes and greenhouse changes suggests that the IPCC radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases is greatly exaggerated and the solar forcing greatly underestimated. (adapted from IPPC AR5).

It should be noted a much more detailed literature review of these likely important solar amplifiers was provided in an excellent summary in the Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science chapter 3 (2013) authored by Willie Soon and Sebastian Luning.

REFERENCES:

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KEY WORDS: Solar, ultravioler, geomagnmetic, TSI, cosmic rays, North Atlantic Oscillation, irradiance