Solar Bulletin

THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF VARIABLE STAR OBSERVERSSOLAR SECTION

Rodney Howe, Editor, Chairc/o AAVSO, 49 Bay State RdCambridge, MA 02138 USA

Web: http://www.aavso.org/solar-bulletinEmail: solar@aavso.org

ISSN 0271-8480

Volume 75 Number 2 February 2019

The Solar Bulletin of the AAVSO is a summary of each month’s solar activity recorded by visualsolar observers’ counts of group and sunspots, and the VLF radio recordings of SID Events in theionosphere. Section 1 gives contributions by our members. The sudden ionospheric disturbancereport is in Section 2. The relative sunspot numbers are in Section 3. Section 4 has endnotes.

1 Solar cycle proxy from 30 cm radio observatory in France

Figure 1: Compare the F30 Solar Flux Unit with the AAVSO monthly Wolf numbers from 1951thru 2018. Left panel shows how closely the AAVSO Wolf numbers match to the F30 data, theright panel gives an idea of how tight the regression lines are for each data set.

Radio emissions at the 30 centimeter wavelength have been routinely monitored since the 1950 s,thereby offering prospects for building proxies that may be better tailored to space weather needs.

The 30 cm flux contains a relatively larger proportion of emissions coming from solar featuressuch as plages, faculae and hot coronal loops.

Daily F30 data from here: (https://spaceweather.cls.fr.)

Further reading: (http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JSWSC...7A...9D)

AAVSO Solar Bulletin - February 2019 Page 2

2 Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance (SID) Report

2.1 SID Records

February 2019 (Figure 2): The only two B class flares this month were on the 1st of Februaryrecorded here Fort Collins, Colorado. However, these were during the night and difficult to detectSID event flares in the ionosphere. (Please note the y-axis values in these SID graphs are non-dimensional.)

Figure 2: VLF recording at Fort Collins, Colorado.

AAVSO Solar Bulletin - February 2019 Page 3

2.2 SID Observers

In February 2019 we had 18 AAVSO SID observers who submitted VLF data as listed in Table1. There were no observers who recorded any SID event this month. Any VLF SID Events weremostly noise and did not match to any GOES-15 flare events.

Table 1: 201902 VLF Observers

Observer Code Stations

S Hansen A59 NAAA McWilliams A94 NMLR Battaiola A96 HWUJ Wallace A97 NAAL Loudet A118 DHO GBZJ Godet A119 GBZB Terrill A120 NWCF Adamson A122 NAAG Meyers A124 NPMS Oatney A125 NML NLK NAAJ Karlovsky A131 NSY ICVR Green A134 NWCR Mrllak A136 NSY GQDS Aguirre A138 NPMG Silvis A141 NLKR Rogge A143 GQDL Ferreira A149 NWCG Wood A150 NML

AAVSO Solar Bulletin - February 2019 Page 4

Figure 3 depicts the importance rating of the solar events. The duration in minutes are -1: LT19, 1: 19-25, 1+: 26-32, 2: 33-45, 2+: 46-85, 3: 86-125, and 3+: GT 125.

Figure 3: VLF SID Events.

2.3 Solar Flare Summary from GOES-15 Data

In February 2019, there were 5 flares reported by GOES-15 this month. Far less flaring than lastmonth: Three A class, 2 B class flares. There were 24 days this month with no GOES-15 reportsof flares. (see Figure 4).

Figure 4: GOES - 15 XRA flares

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3 Relative Sunspot Numbers Ra

Reporting monthly sunspot numbers consists of submitting an individual observer’s daily counts fora specific month to the AAVSO Solar Section. These data are maintained in a SQL database. Themonthly data then are extracted for analysis. This section is the portion of the analysis concernedwith both the raw and daily average counts for a particular month. Scrubbing and filtering thedata assure error-free data are used to determine the monthly sunspot numbers.

3.1 Raw Sunspot Counts

The raw daily sunspot counts consist of submitted counts from all observers who provided data inFebruary 2019. These counts are reported by the day of the month, and are either from data notscrubbed or corrected data. The reported raw daily average counts have been checked for errors andinconsistencies, and no known errors are present. All observers whose submissions qualify throughthis month’s scrubbing process are represented in Figure 5.

Figure 5: Raw Wolf number average, minimum and maximum by day of the month for all observers.

AAVSO Solar Bulletin - February 2019 Page 6

Figure 6: Raw Wolf average and Ra numbers by day of the month for all observers.

3.2 American Relative Sunspot Numbers

The relative sunspot numbers, Ra, contain the sunspot numbers after the submitted data arescrubbed and modeled by Shapley’s method with k-factors (http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1086/126109/pdf). The Shapley method is a statistical model that agglomerates variation dueto random effects such as observer and fixed effects such as seeing condition. The raw Wolf averagesand calculated Ra are seen in Figure 6 and Table 2 shows the Day (column 1) of the observation,the Number of Observations is in column 2, the raw Wolf number is in column 3, and the Shapleycorrection (Ra) is in column 4.

Table 2: 201902 American Relative Sunspot Numbers (Ra).

Number ofDay Observers Raw Ra

1 30 0 02 27 0 03 29 0 04 25 0 05 29 0 06 26 0 07 29 0 08 30 0 09 38 0 010 26 0 011 31 0 012 29 0 013 27 2 114 33 0 015 34 0 0

Continued

AAVSO Solar Bulletin - February 2019 Page 7

Table 2: 201902 American Relative Sunspot Numbers (Ra).

Number ofDay Observers Raw Ra

16 40 0 017 33 0 018 32 0 019 34 0 020 34 1 121 30 0 022 30 0 023 36 0 024 40 0 025 38 0 026 30 0 027 26 0 028 34 0 0

Averges 31.4 0.1 0.1

3.3 Sunspot Observers

Table 3 lists the Observer Code (column 1), the Number of Observations (column 2) submittedfor February 2019, and the Observer Name (column 3). The final rows of the table give the totalnumber of observers who submitted sunspot counts and the total number of observations submitted.The total number of observers is 63 and the total number of observations is 880.

Table 3: 201902 Number of observations by observer.

Observer Number ofCode Observers Observer Name

AAX 18 Alexandre AmorimAJV 18 J. AlonsoARAG 28 Gema AraujoASA 19 Salvador AguirreATE 22 Teofilo Arranz HerasBARH 11 Howard BarnesBATR 5 Roberto BattaiolaBERJ 26 Jose Alberto BerdejoBMF 18 Michael BoschatBRAD 24 David BranchettBRAF 12 Raffaello BragaBROB 10 Robert BrownBSAB 19 Santanu BasuCIOA 8 Ioannis ChouinavasCKB 10 Brian CudnikCNT 15 Dean ChantilesCVJ 15 Jose Carvajal

Continued

AAVSO Solar Bulletin - February 2019 Page 8

Table 3: 201902 Number of observations by observer.

Observer Number ofCode Observers Observer Name

DEMF 4 Frank DempseyDIVA 19 Ivo DemeulenaereDJOB 12 Jorge del RosarioDMIB 26 Michel DeconinckDUBF 24 Franky DuboisEHOA 15 Howard EskildsenERB 5 Bob EramiaFERJ 19 Javier Ruiz FernandezFLET 14 Tom FlemingFLF 7 Fredirico Luiz FunariHAYK 9 Kim HayHOWR 22 Rodney HoweHRUT 19 Timothy HrutkayJDAC 5 David JacksonJENS 4 Simon JennerJGE 3 Gerardo Jimenez LopezJPG 1 Penko JordanovKAND 16 Kandilli ObservatoryKAPJ 9 John KaplanKNJS 28 James & Shirley KnightKROL 22 Larry KrozelLEVM 18 Monty LeventhalLKR 3 Kristine LarsenLRRA 5 Robert LittleMARE 1 Enrico MarianiMCE 20 Etsuiku MochizukiMILJ 14 Jay MillerMJAF 27 Juan Antonio Moreno QuesadaMJHA 25 John McCammonMUDG 5 George MudryMWU 10 Walter MalufOAAA 19 Al Sadeem Astronomy ObservatoryONJ 5 John O’NeillRRO 1 Ralph RoggeSDOH 28 Solar Dynamics Obs - HMISNE 1 Neil SimmonsSONA 11 Andries SonSTAB 22 Brian Gordon-StatesSUZM 24 Miyoshi SuzukiTESD 17 David TeskeTST 5 Steven ToothmanURBP 17 Piotr UrbanskiVARG 24 A. Gonzalo Vargas

Continued

AAVSO Solar Bulletin - February 2019 Page 9

Table 3: 201902 Number of observations by observer.

Observer Number ofCode Observers Observer Name

VIDD 7 Daniel VidicanWGI 1 Guido WollenhauptWILW 9 William M. Wilson

Totals 880 63

3.4 Generalized Linear Model of Sunspot Numbers

Dr. Jamie Riggs, Solar System Science Section Head, International Astrostatistics Association,maintains a relative sunspot number (Ra) model containing the sunspot numbers after the sub-mitted data are scrubbed and modeled by a Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM), which is adifferent model method from the Shapley method of calculating Ra in Section 3 above. The GLMMis a statistical model that accounts for variation due to random effects and fixed effects. For theGLMM Ra model random effects include the AAVSO observer as these observers are a selection fromall possible observers, and the fixed effects include seeing conditions at one of four possible levels.More details on GLMM are available in a paper (GLMM05) on http://www.spesi.org/?page id=65of the sunspot counts research page. The paper title is A Generalized Linear Mixed Model forEnumerated Sunspots.

Figure 7 shows the monthly GLMM Ra numbers for the 24th solar cycle to date. The solid cyancurve that connects the red X’s is the GLMM model Ra estimates of excellent seeing conditions,which in part explains why these Ra estimates often are higher than the Shapley Ra values. Thedotted black curves on either side of the cyan curve depict a 99% confidence band about theGLMM estimates. The confidence band uses the large sample approximation based on the Gaussiandistribution. The green dotted curve connecting the green triangles is the Shapley method Ra

numbers. The dashed blue curve connecting the blue O’s is the SILSO values for the monthlysunspot numbers.

The tan box plots for each month are the actual observations submitted by the AAVSO ob-servers. The heavy solid lines approximately midway in the boxes represent the count medians. Thebox plot represents the InterQuartile Range (IQR), which depicts from the 25th through the 75th

quartiles. The lower and upper whiskers extend 1.5 times the IQR below the 25th quartile, and 1.5times the IQR above the 75th quartile. The black dots below and above the whiskers traditionallyare considered outliers, but with GLMM modeling, they are observations that are accounted for bythe GLMM model.

4 Endnotes

• Sunspot Reports: Kim Hay solar@aavso.org

• SID Solar Flare Reports: Rodney Howe ahowe@frii.com

AAVSO Solar Bulletin - February 2019 Page 10

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