Upload
myron-myles-griffin
View
213
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Sofia Workshop
8 June 2007
Modelling the impact of Modelling the impact of policy and measures with policy and measures with
MURE: MURE: The Czech Republic Case The Czech Republic Case
studystudy
ContentsContents
The methodological approachThe methodological approach
Results from the impact assessment of the Results from the impact assessment of the Czech Republic P&Ms in the household Czech Republic P&Ms in the household sectorsector
The methodological The methodological approachapproach
– The MURE tool allows to evaluate the ex ante or ex The MURE tool allows to evaluate the ex ante or ex post impact of P&Ms through a post impact of P&Ms through a bottom-up approachbottom-up approach
– The assessment is made measure by measure and The assessment is made measure by measure and the outputs are provided in terms of the outputs are provided in terms of energyenergy saved saved and and COCO22 avoided; avoided;
– For each country, the savings corresponding to the For each country, the savings corresponding to the application of the P&Ms, are evaluated by application of the P&Ms, are evaluated by measuring the impact of a “Policy scenario” with measuring the impact of a “Policy scenario” with respect to a “Reference scenario”.respect to a “Reference scenario”.
The “Reference scenario”The “Reference scenario”– The “Reference scenario” is defined as a simulation in
which the energy demand trend is calculated by
considering the main energy consumption drivers (e.g.
the demography and social drivers as measured by the
n° of households);
– It includes possible saturation trends in the drivers, and
could also comprise the residual impact of energy saving
measures implemented before the reference year, that is
the year from which the impact simulation exercise
starts.
The “Policy scenario”The “Policy scenario”
The “Policy scenario” refers to a scenario in which the energy demand development takes into account additional energy saving measures implemented after the reference year.
Setting the Policy scenarioSetting the Policy scenario
Measures’ Measures’ selectionselection
Measures’ Measures’ parameterizationparameterization CalculationCalculation Energy Energy
savingssavings
1°1° 4°4°3°3°2°2°
Measures’ Measures’ selectionselection
1°1°
MeasuresMeasuresIssuedIssued
BEFOREBEFOREReference yearReference year
MeasuresMeasuresIssuedIssuedAFTERAFTER
Reference yearReference year
Measures’ Measures’ parameterizationparameterization
2°2°
EstimationEstimationofof
PenetrationPenetrationRatesRates
EstimationEstimationofof
Energy savingsEnergy savingsgaingain
The Penetration rate concept
The penetration rate is provided by the product of two parameters:
The involved stock (the number of final users that, at the end of a given time period applies the measure) The penetration “speed” (the rate of diffusion of this measure in the involved stock along the considered time lag )
I nvolvedStock %
20 %
Measureissuing year
T=0P=0
Penetrat ion in theinvo lved s tock
100%
Measureending year
Tim e
Penetratio n ratioslo pe
T=Endin.S tk=20%
CalculationCalculation
3°3°
Energy Energy savingssavings
4°4°
ReferenceReference PolicyPolicy
The impact evaluation case The impact evaluation case studystudy
Measures’ selectionMeasures’ selection
CZECH REPUBLICCZECH REPUBLICCZ1CZ1 Minimum thermal insulation standardsMinimum thermal insulation standards
CZ2CZ2 Level of thermal energy demand according to Czech Level of thermal energy demand according to Czech standardsstandards
CZ3CZ3 Minimum efficiency standards for boilersMinimum efficiency standards for boilers
CZ4CZ4 Control systems for heatingControl systems for heating
CZ5CZ5 Periodic mandatory inspection of boilersPeriodic mandatory inspection of boilers
CZ6CZ6 Mandatory energy labelling of electrical appliancesMandatory energy labelling of electrical appliances
CZ7CZ7 Investment subsidies in the framework of Annual Investment subsidies in the framework of Annual Government ProgrammeGovernment Programme
CZ8CZ8 Subsidies for elaboration of energy audits in the framework Subsidies for elaboration of energy audits in the framework of Annual Government Programmeof Annual Government Programme
CZECH REPUBLICCZECH REPUBLIC::
− 8 measures of which 0 before the Reference year 8 measures of which 0 before the Reference year and 8 after and 8 after (but 5 considered within the simulation)
Measures’ selectionMeasures’ selection(3)(3)
It is worth noting that the reference scenario of the Czech Republic has been developed taking into account the autonomous penetration (up to2025) of the buildings having the insulation standards of the buildings built during the years 1990-2000
Measures’ selectionMeasures’ selection(4)(4)
Measures’ parameterizationMeasures’ parameterization
CZECH REPUBLICCZECH REPUBLIC::
− 3 measures described here3 measures described here
HUNGARYHUNGARY::
− 1 measure described here1 measure described here
in order to show howthe parameterization
has been pursued
CZ2 - Level of thermal energy CZ2 - Level of thermal energy demand according to Czech demand according to Czech
standardsstandardsThe measure deals with the refurbishment of
prefabricated buildings built during the years
60s and 70s and of other types of low
income buildings.
The refurbishment interventions are roughly
divided in two main groups: those without
and those with the windows substitution
CZ2 - Level of thermal energy CZ2 - Level of thermal energy demand according to Czech demand according to Czech
standardsstandards
Starting year:Starting year: 20062006
Ending year:Ending year: 20252025
Total stock:Total stock: 4.3 millions4.3 millions
% involved stock:% involved stock: 16% Insulation – 35% Windows replacement16% Insulation – 35% Windows replacement
Gain:Gain: 15% Insulation – 20% Windows replacement15% Insulation – 20% Windows replacement
Notes:Notes: The data comes from a study carried out in the The data comes from a study carried out in the city of Prague and from performed energy city of Prague and from performed energy audits on buildings (Enviros).audits on buildings (Enviros).
CZ3 - Minimum efficiency CZ3 - Minimum efficiency standards for boilersstandards for boilers
The measure specifies the minimum required efficiencies for electricity and heat production. For what concerns the household sector, it is addressed to all boilers using fossil fuels having heat capacity equal or greater than 200 kW.
These boilers represent the 46% of the total boiler stock of the Czech Republic, two thirds of which are fired by natural gas and one third by coal
Of this set, Enviros estimates that the 91% of the coal boilers and the 57% of the gas ones don’t meet the efficiency requirements established by the measure
Of this 91% of coal boilers, two thirds will be (an dare been) substituted by gas
boilers and one third by new coal boilers
CZ3 - Minimum efficiency CZ3 - Minimum efficiency standards for boilersstandards for boilers
Starting year:Starting year: 20022002
Ending year:Ending year: 20202020
Total stock:Total stock: 2.5 millions2.5 millions
% involved stock:% involved stock: Replacement 6,6%; Fuel substitution 0,5%Replacement 6,6%; Fuel substitution 0,5%
Gain:Gain: 14%14%
Notes:Notes: The involved stock of boilers has been obtained The involved stock of boilers has been obtained from the “Register of Sources of Air from the “Register of Sources of Air Pollution” (REZZO) – a database containing Pollution” (REZZO) – a database containing information about all heat sources with total information about all heat sources with total capacity above 200kW. (Enviros)capacity above 200kW. (Enviros)
CZ6 - Mandatory energy CZ6 - Mandatory energy labelling of electric applianceslabelling of electric appliances
The measure applies the EU Directives on the domestic appliances.
In our simulation we have taken into account the cold appliances (freezers and refrigerators) and washing machines.
To calculate the impact of this measure on the appliances stock we have foreseen that at the year 2025 the 100% of the stock will be composed by A+ and A++ appliances.
CZ6 - Mandatory energy CZ6 - Mandatory energy labelling of electric applianceslabelling of electric appliances
Starting year:Starting year: 20042004
Ending year:Ending year: 20252025
% involved stock:% involved stock: 100%100%
Gain:Gain: CalculatedCalculated
Notes:Notes: Data provided by other on going projects (i.e. Data provided by other on going projects (i.e. Ecodesign)Ecodesign)
Cold appliances
Washing machines
2001
A = 33,80%Sales
Specific energy cons
= 335.2 kWh/yr
A = 42,73% Sales
Specific energy cons
= 250 kWh/yr
2025
A+ and A+
+=100%Sales Target energy cons
= 158 kWh/yr
A+=100%Sales Target energy cons
= 180 kWh/yr
A 42,73%B 36,83%C 17,01%D 3,43%
Washing machines 2001 mix
A 33,80%B 45,34%C 19,74%
D,E,F 1,12%
Cold appliances 2001 mix
Total Energy Consumption Trends - Czech Republic
5800
6000
6200
6400
6600
6800
7000
7200
7400
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
years
kto
e
Reference Scenario Appliances Building codes
Refurbishment Boiler substitution Limit internal temperature
1.27 Mtoe
0.84 0.84 MtoeMtoe
About 0.87% About 0.87% Per yearPer year
Thermal Unitary Energy Consumption Trends - Czech Republic
1,00
1,05
1,10
1,15
1,20
1,25
1,30
1,35
years
toe/
dw
Reference Building codes Refurbishment Boiler substitution Limit internal temperature
Thermal Electric Total
2001 5051,4 1358,0 6409,4
2025 Reference 5471,5 1668,7 7140,2
2025 Policy 4376,9 1490,8 5867,7
Total Energy Consumption Trends Czech Republic
Energy savings per measure
0,18
1,05
1,27
0,26
0,73
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
1,20
1,40
Appliances Building codes Refurbishment Boiler substitution Limit internaltemperature
Mto
e
Energy Savings per measure - Czech Republic
Mtoe 0,22
Mtoe 0,32
Mtoe 0,47
Mtoe 0,18
Mtoe 0,08
Appliances
Building codes
Refurbishment
Boiler substitution
Limit internaltemperature
ConclusionsConclusions
By considering the energy savings per year, the Czech Republic is By considering the energy savings per year, the Czech Republic is rather close to ESD requirementsrather close to ESD requirements
For Czech Republic the way to fulfil the Directive requirementsFor Czech Republic the way to fulfil the Directive requirements is is probably the extension of the boiler standards to the low-size boilers probably the extension of the boiler standards to the low-size boilers (≤ 200 kW) together with a future tighten of the new building codes(≤ 200 kW) together with a future tighten of the new building codes
Moreover the enforcement of an extended auditing/information Moreover the enforcement of an extended auditing/information programme could be a further way to help increasing the family programme could be a further way to help increasing the family awareness to the energy efficiency issues and achieve still high awareness to the energy efficiency issues and achieve still high energy saving potentialsenergy saving potentials