SOEST Contribution to PacIOOSModeling Subgroup

Oceanography:

Paulo Calil

Glen Carter

Tommy Jensen

Yanli Jia

Doug Luther

Jim Potemra

Kelvin Richards

Meterology:

Steve Businger

Dave Chen

Ocean & Res Eng:

Kwok Fai Cheung

Nowcast estimates of upper ocean circulation

Nowcast and forecast estimates of wave/water

level

Forecast estimates of upper ocean circulation

Forecast estimates of atmospheric conditions

Synthesis of ocean observations via data

assimilation

Model-based productsUsers

• Search and rescue

• Ocean recreation

• Travel/transportation

• Wave/run-up/tracer models

• Weather forecasters

• Policy/planning

• Research community

Ocean circulation

Wave/water level

Atmosphere

Model Systems

1. Product Development: initial effortconstruction of regional nowcast maps of ocean circulation

based on daily downloads of operational models run by/at NRL Stennis– NLOM (3.4 km, 100m upper layer, 200m isobath, assimilates

SSH)– NCOM (14 km, 40-levels, 5m isobath, assimilates T/s from

NLOM/MODAS)

• Notes:– These models will be replaced by HYCOM (9 km) at the end of

2007 (mandate is end of FY08)– Will require DM/web work rather than modeling expertise– Can be done quickly and inexpensively– IPRC/APDRC activity leverage– Frees SOEST from operational responsibilities– Not ideal for tracer/trajectories nor research– ¼ FTE for technical support

Integration of three locally-run modeling subsystems: atmosphere (MET), ocean circulation (IPRC), wave/water level (ORE)

• Wave model up and running; already operational

• Atmospheric model up and running; already operation; not ideal model

• Ocean model(s) under development

2. Product Development: local model

Wave model system

Wave Watch 3

Global, 1x1 degree

Wave Watch 3

Regional, 10x10 km

SWAN

Island-region, 100x100 m

Upper-ocean currentsAtmospheric forcing

Wave and water levels

RSM/MSMIsland-domain 1x1 km

(Chen/Businger)

Atmospheric model system

Global Forecast SystemNCEP

RSM/MSMRegional 10x10 km

(Chen/Businger)

• Surface forcing• Weather forecasting

WRFNested to 1x1 km

(TBA)

RSM/MSMIsland-domain 1x1 km

(Chen/Businger)

Atmospheric model system

Global Forecast SystemNCEP

RSM/MSMRegional 10x10 km

(Chen/Businger)

• Surface forcing• Weather forecasting

WRFNested to 1x1 km

(TBA)

Regional (125x125 m) POMIPRC (Jensen)

Ocean model systemGlobal HYCOM

NRL

Regional (5x5 km) HYCOMIPRC (Jia)

• Ocean currents• Sea level• Transports• Synthesized observations• Research activities

Surface forcingMET

ObservationsPacIOOS/DMAC

Regional (variable) ROMSIPRC (TBA)

Regional (125x125 m) POMIPRC (Jensen)

Ocean model systemGlobal HYCOM

NRL

Regional (5x5 km) HYCOMIPRC (Jia)

• Ocean currents• Sea level• Transports• Synthesized observations• Research activities

Surface forcingMET

ObservationsPacIOOS/DMAC

Regional (variable) ROMSIPRC (TBA)

Model development timeline

• Wave model– Maintain (now)

• Atmospheric model– Maintain (now)– Upgrade to WRF (end year 1)– Coupled model (in year 3)

• Ocean models:– Serve operational model output (in year 1)– Continue HYCOM (products end year 1)– Continue POM (products in year 1)– Develop ROMS (year 2-3)– Coupled model (in year 3-out)

Ocean models

• Serving operational model– Immediate -- Insufficient resolution– Run elsewhere

• Continue regional models– Experience -- Need resources– Underway -- Not yet operational– Experiments -- Rely on atm and global model– Research capable– Tracer/trajectories– Configurable

Ocean models, cont’d• HYCOM

– Fits global model -- Expensive– Experience -- Rely on NRL– Advanced physics -- Small user base

• POM– Experience -- Few modules– Large user base -- BC’s– Efficient -- Very small

domain• ROMS

– Large user base -- Not yet tested here– Many modules -- BC’s– Easy to configure– Used in other regions

Model Personnel Months/year $K/year

Atm model programmer/tech/pdoc 12/12/12 90/90/90

TOTAL 90/90/90

Wave model programmer/tech/pdoc 12/12/12 90/90/90

TOTAL 90/90/90

Ocean model

HYCOM Jia (model devel) 03/02/02 45/30/30

Yaremchuk (data assim) 02/02/01 30/30/15

Potemra (man/eval) 01/01/01 15/15/15

POM Jensen (model devel) 03/02/02 45/30/30

Potemra (man/eval) 01/01/01 15/15/15

ROMS prog/tech/pdoc (model devel) 12/07/05 60/35/25

Yaremchuk (data assim) 01/02/01 15/30/15

Potemra (man/eval) 01/01/01 15/15/15

TOTAL 240/200/160

Resources, cont.’d

Year 1 Year 2 Year3Ocean model240 200 160Atm model 90 90 90Wave model 90 90 90Equipment1,2 120 0 40

1. LOI listed equipment under Ocean model2. Cluster/disks in yr1, upgrade to disks yr2

Miscellaneous Concerns

• Rely critically on DM component for data storage and transport

• Rely on linkages for product development (DM group?)

• Model evaluation• Integrate research activities• Determine necessary and sufficient grid

spacing, domain boundary (balance with runtime)

NOAA PRIDE: Nearshore circulation and wave modellingNOAA PRIDE: Nearshore circulation and wave modelling Kaneohe Bay, Oahu 10.8 km x 14.4 km . POM with 123 m x 132 m resolution11 vertical topography following levels (resolution: 5 cm to 11 m)Depth range: 1 m to 100 m Mellor and Donelan (2006) surface wave model (24 wave directions)

Currents and wave field for trade wind conditions (15 m/s). Swell: 3m, 10s

Bathymetry

Comparison with tidal data

HYCOM dx=0.08o

OfES (Qscat) dx=0.10o

HYCOM dx=0.04o

OfES (ECMWF)dx=0.10o

NLOM (NCEP)dx=0.06o

Comparison with T/P data

HYCOMdx=0.08o

OfES (ECMWF) dx=0.10o

OfES (Qscat) dx=0.10o

HYCOMdx=0.04o

rms SSH variance(2o horizontal smoothing)

T/P data

HYCOM.04

Comparison with CTD data (HOT2 station)

Cross-validation of the models using SSH

MIT GCM, ‘93-’97, [Lee et al., 2002]

Model-data correlations