SOCOM SMA Gray Zone Panel Discussion

Booklet

27 April 2017 (1300-1630ET)

Arete Associates 1550 Crystal Dr, Suite 703

Arlington, VA 22202

You can also dial remotely into:

866-852-2876 US Toll Free 203-277-7082 Outside US

Passcode: 92136010#

Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) provides planning support to Commands with complex operational imperatives requiring multi-agency, multi-disciplinary solutions that are NOT within core Service/Agency competency. Solutions and participants are sought across USG and beyond. SMA is accepted and synchronized by Joint Staff/J-39 DDGO and executed by ASD (EC&P).

Agenda

SMA SOCOM Gray Zone Panel Discussion

Methods – Implementation - Operations

Panel Moderators: CAPT Phil Kapusta (SOCOM) and LTG (Ret) Dr. Bob Elder (GMU) Panel members: Mr. Mark Hoffman (LM ATL), Mr. Mark Sisson (STRATCOM), Dr. John Stevenson (NSI), Dr. Nick Wright (Univ. of Birmingham), Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI), Dr. Randy Kluver (TAMU), Mr. Devin Ellis (ICONS), Dr. Robert Toguchi (USASOC), and Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI)

1. Introduction (CAPT Phil Kapusta)

a. Panel Topics

b. CCDR Needs for Indications and Warnings

2. Types of Gray Zone Indications and Warnings. Moderator: Lt Gen (Ret) Dr. Bob Elder (GMU)

a- Gray Zone Actor regional objectives potential Courses of Action: What "red" courses of action are the operators trying to prevent or mitigate?

b. Regional Instabilities affecting Gray Zone Actor: What type of disturbances to the status

quo would either threaten a Gray Zone Actor or present them an opportunity?

c. Potential threats to Gray Zone Actor domestic Motivations: What actions on the part of a regional actor (affecting behavioral motivations) might force a Gray Zone Actor to respond in a way adverse to US interests?

d. Gray Zone Actor Intent to Escalate Instability: What types of activities might indicate a

Gray Zone Actor's desire to escalate a situation rather than work to restore stability?

3. Sources of Gray Zone Indications and Warnings. Moderator: Mr. Mark Hoffman (LM ATL)

a. Social Media

b. News Media

c. Leadership Discourse

d. Leadership Integrative Complexity

e. War Gaming

4. Courses of action available in the Gray Zone - Operational Considerations. Moderator: CAPT

Phil Kapusta (SOCOM) and Dr. John Stevenson (NSI)

a. Dynamics of escalation, trigger points, and escalation control

b. U.S. Whole of Government Capabilities

5. Implementation and Required Capabilities. Moderator: Dr. Robert Toguchi (USASOC)

a. What does it take to implement these methodologies? What data? What skills? What

technologies?

b. With respect to these factors and capabilities - What is common and different between

the needs of key different users, e.g. SOCOM, STRATCOM, EUCOM, PACOM?

Directions to 27 April Panels

Arete Associates, 1550 Crystal Drive, Suite 703

From The Metro (Blue or Yellow Line) When you exit the station, you will take an escalator up to an underground breezeway. As you step off the escalator turn right and enter the Crystal City Underground Shops area.

As you enter the Underground you will walk straight until you face a Rite Aid drugstore. Turn right, travel about 200 feet until you get to a Starbuck’s.

At the Starbuck’s, (Morton’s will be to your direct front) turn left. You will go up a small set of stairs and then immediately down the other side and continue straight for about 150 feet to a set of glass doors at the end of the hallway. (You will pass a Potbelly’s, a lounge area, and a Securitas all on the right)

Proceed through those doors. You will be in the lobby of Crystal Square 2 (1550 Crystal Drive). The Workshop is located on the 7th floor. When you exit the elevator you will see a sign to the suite

(703). (There are also signs suspended from the ceiling that direct people to the different buildings in the Crystal City complex). Areté is in Crystal Square 2.

From The GW Parkway heading south: Proceed south and take the Memorial Bridge exit. At the end of

the exit ramp turn left toward Arlington Cemetery. DO NOT TURN RIGHT TO GO OVER THE BRIDGE. About 100 yards after the left turn, bear right at the sign to Route 110. Route 110 will take you past the Pentagon and will turn into Route 1 south. Take the 15th Street exit and turn left off the exit ramp at the traffic light.

Go straight until you hit Crystal Drive (150 yards). Make a right onto Crystal Drive. The parking garage will be on the right approximately 50 yards after the turn.

From 395 heading North: Take exit 8C off route 395 (the sign will say Pentagon City and Crystal City). At the end of the exit ramp, proceed through the traffic light onto South Hayes Street. When you pass the

Pentagon Center strip mall on your left (Macy’s on your right) there will be a left-turn lane at the traffic light. Take that left onto 15th street. Proceed down 15th street until you go under the Route 1 (Jefferson Davis Highway) overpass. Keep going

straight until you hit Crystal Drive (150

yards). Make a right onto Crystal Drive. The parking garage will be on the right approximately 50 yards after the turn.

From 395 heading south: As you cross the Potomac River, stay in the left lane. The exit for Crystal City and Route 1 will be on the left side approximately ½ mile after you cross the river. Take that exit and as you swing around to Route 1, you will see the exit for 15th Street. Take the 15th Street exit and turn left off the

exit ramp at the traffic light. Go straight until you hit Crystal Drive (150 yards). Make a right onto Crystal Drive. The parking garage will be on the right approximately 50 yards after the turn.

Parking: There is a parking entrance off of Crystal Drive. Once you take one of the elevators up to the dining and shops level, follow the signs to Crystal Square 2.

Biographies Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI)

LTG (Ret) Dr. Bob Elder (GMU)

Mr. Devin Ellis (ICONS)

Mr. Mark Hoffman (LMCO)

CAPT Phil Kapusta (SOCOM)

Dr. Randy Kluver (TX A&M)

Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI)

Mr. Mark Sisson (STRATCOM)

Dr. John Stevenson (NSI)

Dr. Robert Toguchi (USASOC) Dr. Nick Wright (University of Birmingham, UK)

DR. ALLISON ASTORINO-COURTOIS

Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois is Executive Vice President at NSI, Inc. She also served as co-chair of a National Academy of Sciences (NAS) study on US Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century and as a section lead on a Congressionally-mandated NAS study of Space Deterrence and Protection. Over the past five years Dr. Astorino-Courtois has worked as technical lead on a variety of rapid turn-around, Joint Staff-directed Strategic Multi-layer Assessment projects in support of US forces and nearly all US Combatant Commands, In addition, she has developed numerous conceptual models for those projects, including a Stability Model (StaM) for assessing the stability and instability dynamics of a state, sub-state, city or organization by integrating political, economic and social factors; a Longevity Model for measuring and explaining the durability of organizations such as Da’esh,; and, a means of measuring actor intent, resolve/will and relevant capability to forecast the likely futures of the Persian Gulf or other regions.

Previously, Dr. Astorino-Courtois was a Senior Analyst at SAIC (2004-2007) where she served as a STRATCOM liaison to U.S. and international academic and business. Prior to SAIC, Dr. Astorino-Courtois was a tenured Associate Professor of International Relations at Texas A&M University in College Station, TX (1994-2003) where her research focused on the cognitive aspects of foreign policy decision making. She has also taught at Creighton University and as a visiting instructor at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. She has received a number of academic grants and awards and has published articles in multiple peer-reviewed journals. Dr. Astorino-Courtois also has the distinction of having been awarded both a US Navy Meritorious Service Award and a US Army Commander's Award.

Dr. Astorino-Courtois earned her Ph.D. in International Relations and MA in and Research Methods from New York University and a BA is in political science from Boston College.

LTG (RET) DR. BOB ELDER Research Professor, George Mason University Lieutenant General Robert Elder (USAF, retired) joined the George Mason University faculty as a research professor with the Volgenau School of Engineering following his retirement from the Air Force as the Commander of 8th Air Force and U.S. Strategic Command’s Global Strike Component. He currently conducts research in the areas of integrated command and control, operational resiliency in degraded environments, strategic deterrence, and the use of modeling to support national security decision-making. General Elder served as the Central Command Air Forces Deputy Commander for Operation Enduring Freedom and later as the Air Operations Center Commander and Deputy Air Component Commander for Operation Iraqi Freedom. He was the first commander of Air Force Network Operations and led the development of the cyberspace mission for the Air Force. General Elder also served as Commandant of the Air War College, and holds a doctorate in engineering from the University of Detroit.

DR. DEVIN ELLIS

Mr. Devin Hayes Ellis is a faculty research associate in the College of Behavioral and Social Sciences at the University of Maryland, and the Policy & Research Program Director for the ICONS Project – a simulation research and training program affiliated with the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). Ellis’ work focuses on helping organizations use simulation and gaming for crisis management and policy and programmatic planning. He is a policy analyst by training, specializing in East Asian security issues and crisis.

Ellis has designed or consulted on simulation projects for USAID, the World Bank, DHS, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Brookings Institution, CSIS, the Office of Personnel Management, National Defense University, the Kennedy School of Government, the Fletcher School of Diplomacy, Ford Motor Co., Swire, Michelin, ABInBev, and various parts of DOD including the Joint Staff, OSD, and several Combatant Commands. Over the past decade he has also been a participant in groundbreaking Track II dialogues on U.S.-China crisis management. Ellis is an external reviewer for the interdisciplinary journal Simulation & Gaming, and serves as associate editor of the PAXsims blog (https://paxsims.wordpress.com/).

MR. MARK HOFFMAN Mr. Mark A. Hoffman is the manager for the Model Based Reasoning Group at Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Laboratory. He has over 30 years of experience specializing in the development and management of advanced concepts and systems that incorporate state of the art information technology and analytics into revolutionary Avionics, Transportation, Logistics, Intelligence Analysis, and Decision Support systems.

Mr. Hoffman has been the Program Manager and Principle investigator for more than 30 DARPA, IARPA, and Service Lab programs and projects. This includes that DARPA Integrated Crises Early Warning System (ICEWS) demonstrating social science analytics and forecasting of worldwide unrest events. These capabilities represent the first successful transition of computational social science to a DOD Program of Record. He was also the Principle Investigator for the DARPA Genoa Crisis-Net Program, and was responsible for the development of the Dynamic Analysis and Replanning Tool for USTRANSCOM for visualizing and managing troop deployments during Desert Shield and the Joint Planning Tool, an air campaign planning tool to implement a revolutionary effects based-operations metaphor based on Gulf War experience.

Mr. Hoffman has authored over 20 scientific peer-reviewed conference papers and publications, and three book chapters. He is co-editor of the Cross Cultural Decision Making Conference and a member of the 2016 Defense Science Board Summer Study Panel on Constrained Military Operations.

Mr. Hoffman has a B.S. in Computer Science and Numerical Analysis from the University of Washington and an M.S. in Computer Science from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. He is a member of ACM, IEEE, AFCEA, AFHE, and AUVSI.

CAPTAIN PHIL KAPUSTA

CAPT Phil Kapusta was born and raised in Northern Virginia. He graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy with merit in 1992.

After completing Basic Underwater Demolition/SEAL (BUD/S) training with Class 186 in Coronado, California, he reported to SEAL Team TWO in Little Creek, Virginia in 1993. He served as Assistant Officer-in-Charge (AOIC) of two platoons before transferring to SEAL Team EIGHT in 1996.

At SEAL Team EIGHT, CAPT Kapusta served as Officer-in-Charge (OIC) of a SEAL Platoon and then as Assistant Operations Officer.

Following this tour, CAPT Kapusta earned his MS degree from the Naval Postgraduate School in Leadership and Human Resource Development. From 1999-2001, he returned to the Naval Academy and was the 16th Company Officer.

From 2001 to 2003, he served at Special Operations Command Central (SOCCENT) in the Joint Planning Group (JPG). Following his time at SOCCENT, CAPT Kapusta served as the OIC of Naval Special Warfare Center, Detachment Little Creek (NSWCDLC) from 2003-2005.

From 2005 to 2007, he attended the Command and General Staff College (CGSC) and the School of Advanced Military Studies (SAMS) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. While there, he also earned an EMBA from Benedictine College.

After graduating from SAMS, CAPT Kapusta served as the J5 Chief of Strategic Plans at SOCCENT from 2007-2009.

CAPT Kapusta worked at the US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) in J-51 (Special Plans) in 2009 before being selected for command for Provincial Reconstruction Team, Ghazni, Afghanistan. He served as the CO of PRT Ghazni from 2009-2010.

He is currently assigned to the USSOCOM J-5 as a strategic planner.

CAPT Kapusta and his wife Michelle live in the Tampa area, and they have three young sons, Vincente, Antonio and Joseph.

DR. RANDY KLUVER

Dr. Randy Kluver is Professor of Communication and Global Faculty Ambassador-Asia, at Texas A&M University. Previously, he was the Executive Director of the Singapore Internet Research Center at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, and Visiting Fellow at National University of Singapore. He has been conducting research on the role of media, new media, and politics in the Asian context for most of his career. Dr. Kluver conducts theoretically driven research on political communication and global and new media. His work explores the role of political culture on political communication, and the ways in which cultural expectations, values, and habits condition political messaging practices and reception in a variety of contexts. Dr. Kluver works from a 'media-centric' views perspective on geopolitics.

DR. LARRY KUZNAR Lawrence A. Kuznar (Professor of Anthropology, Indiana University-Purdue University-Fort Wayne and NSI, Inc.) Dr. Kuznar conducts anthropological research relevant to counterterrorism and other areas of national security. His current research focuses on discourse analysis of Daesh leadership messaging to provide leading indicators of intent and behavior and has applied this methodology to Eastern European State and non-State Actors, Iran, and polities in the Middle East and Asia. He has developed computational models of genocide in Darfur and tribal factionalism in New Guinea, mathematical models of inequality and conflict, and integrated socio-cultural databases for predicting illicit nuclear trade and bioterrorism. He has conducted discourse analysis of the expression of conflict and enmity in Arabic, Farsi and Pashto, to identify leading indicators of conflict. Dr. Kuznar’s recent research has been funded by academic sources, the Office of the Secretary of Defense Strategic Multilayer Analysis, Air Force Research Lab (AFRL), the Human Social Cultural Behavior (HSCB) modeling program of the Department of Defense, and by the US Army Corps of Engineers. He has also served on the HSCB Technical Progress Evaluation panel, and currently serves on a panel for National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) net assessment.

MR. MARK SISSON

Mr. Sisson is the Deputy Chief, Planning Tools, Concepts & Exercise Branch (J553), United States Strategic Command, Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska. He is a lead action officer for multiple war games to include “Deterrence and Escalation Game and Review” (DEGRE). DEGRE is an on-going, collaborative U.S. Strategic Command effort with the Naval War College with over 120 participants across the spectrum of government, focusing in on the complexities of deterrence, assurance to allies, and escalation management. Additionally, he is the lead analyst for multiple “What if Limited Event-Experiments” (WILE-E). Mr. Sisson is frequently called upon to lead analytic teams on planning efforts.

Mr. Sisson earned a Bachelor of Science degree in Mathematics from Auburn University, and a Master of Science in Operations Research from the Air Force Institute of Technology. Mr. Sisson is a USSTRATCOM Fellow (2017) and an adjunct Professor at Bellevue University where he teaches analysis methodology in the MBA program.

DR. JOHN STEVENSON

Dr. John A. Stevenson is a Principal Research Scientist at NSI, Inc, a private data analytics firm. His published peer- reviewed works (a) focuses on the commemorative uses of past massacres (through the construction of genocide memorials) to create a narrative justification of unending “post-genocide” authoritarian political order in Rwanda; (b) statistically investigate the most effective counter-terrorism responses to Boko Haram in Nigeria using event data. At NSI, Dr. Stevenson works primarily with public sector clients as is a multi-method data scientist: curating data narratives from multiple data types for validated social scientific inferences and analysis. Prior to joining NSI, Dr. Stevenson worked as a lead investigator and senior researcher in the DHS Center of Excellence, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland, College Park. Dr. Stevenson earned his B.A. in Government from Dartmouth College, and his M.A. and PhD in Political Science from the University of Chicago.

DR. ROBERT TOGUCHI

Dr. Robert M. Toguchi is currently serving as the Chief, Concepts Division, G9 Directorate, in the U.S. Army Special Operations Command at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. He has spent over 30 years on active military duty while serving as a Functional Area 59 strategist for the U.S. Army. His past assignments included a tour as the Director, Strategic Plans and Chief, ARCIC Initiatives Group, TRADOC. In the Pacific region, he spent a tour with the U.S. Pacific Command while serving as the Deputy Director, J8; and the Chief, Strategic Plans, J5 Directorate, USPACOM. Dr. Toguchi was also assigned to Africa in 2005 while serving as the senior U.S. military observer to the U.N. Mission in Liberia. Previously, he served on the faculty and taught military strategy at the U.S. National War College, National Defense University. Additionally, in the Washington D.C. area, Dr. Toguchi gained valuable experiences within the halls of the Pentagon while serving as a strategist in the DAMO-SSP, Strategy and Policy Division, Army G3/5/7; and as a war planner in DAMO- SSW, War Plans Division, Army G3/5/7, 1996-1999. Dr. Toguchi received a B.S. degree concentrating in Engineering, from the U.S. Military Academy in 1980; and received a PhD in History from Duke University in 1994.

DR. NICHOLAS D. WRIGHT

Wright is an Associate in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington DC where he works on neuroscientific perspectives on nuclear decision-making. His work combines experience from two fields. In the policy sphere, Wright was a Visiting Fellow in the Department of Government at the London School of Economics, and also organised high-level public policy workshops and events in the UK. In addition, Wright is trained in neuroscience and biology. He worked clinically as a neurologist in Oxford and at the National Hospital for Neurology in London, and subsequently spent five years using technologies like functional brain imaging to examine economic and political phenomena, conducted as a Fellow at the Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging at University College London (UCL). He received a medical degree from UCL, a BSc in Health Policy from Imperial College London, has Membership of the Royal College of Physicians (UK), has an MSc in Neuroscience and a PhD in Neuroscience both from UCL.