Société Suisse de Médecine Interne, Lausanne, May 21, Société Suisse de Médecine Interne, Lausanne, May 21, 20012001

Press Conference,Press Conference,

Grand âge : jusqu’où pouvons nous Grand âge : jusqu’où pouvons nous aller ? aller ?

Jean-Marie RobineJean-Marie Robine

Robine and Paccaud, 2005

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Males Females

Switzerland

Increase in life expectancy in SwitzerlandIncrease in life expectancy in Switzerland

How many new born become adulte?How many new born become adulte?

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

1751 1776 1801 1826 1851 1876 1901 1926 1951 1976 2001

Denmark

England

France

Japan

Netherlands

Norway

Sweden

Switzerland

USA

sex women

Somme de lx

Year

country

75000

80000

85000

90000

95000

100000

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

90000

92000

94000

96000

98000

100000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Halley, first life table, 1693Halley, first life table, 1693

Halley 1687-1691

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Halley 1687-1691

Sweden, 1754-1756Sweden, 1754-1756

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Halley 1687-1691

Sweden 1754-1756

Switzerland, 1876-1880Switzerland, 1876-1880

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Halley 1687-1691

Sweden 1754-1756

Switzerland 1876-1880

Japan, 1950-1954Japan, 1950-1954

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Halley 1687-1691

Sweden 1754-1756

Switzerland 1876-1880

Japan 1950-1954

Fries (1980)Fries (1980)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Halley 1687-1691

Sweden 1754-1756

Switzerland 1876-1880

Japan 1950-1954

Fries (1980)

Japan 1980-1984Japan 1980-1984

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Halley 1687-1691

Sweden 1754-1756

Switzerland 1876-1880

Japan 1950-1954

Japan 1980-1984

Fries (1980)

Japan 2000-2004Japan 2000-2004

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Halley 1687-1691

Sweden 1754-1756

Switzerland 1876-1880

Japan 1950-1954

Japan 1980-1984

Japan 2000-2004

Fries (1980)

Increase in the modal length of life (M), Increase in the modal length of life (M), since 1751: a selection of 9 countriessince 1751: a selection of 9 countries

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

1751

1761

1771

1781

1791

1801

1811

1821

1831

1841

1851

1861

1871

1881

1891

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

Denmark

England

France

Japan

Netherlands

Norway

Sweden

Switzerland

USA

sex women

Sum of Age

year

country

Longevity revolutionLongevity revolutionSwitzerland, 1878, 1930 Switzerland, 1878, 1930 and 1990and 1990

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

20 40 60 80 100 120

1876-80

1929-32

1988-93

Modal life span (M)

More than 32,000 centenenarians in Japon in 2007More than 32,000 centenenarians in Japon in 2007

Robine & Saito, 2003

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

20000

24000

28000

32000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Total

Males

Females

28,518 Centenarians in Japan

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Males

Females

Total

20 000 centenarians in France in 2008

Life expectancy at birth, various countries, Life expectancy at birth, various countries, females – Human Mortality Database (HMD)females – Human Mortality Database (HMD)

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Czech Republic

Denmark

Japan

Spain

USA

age 0 sex femme

Somme de LE

year

country

Health trends in Health trends in centenarianscentenarians

Interestingly, in Japan where the number of Interestingly, in Japan where the number of centenarians is increasing quickly, their health centenarians is increasing quickly, their health status seem to worsen as shown by the strong status seem to worsen as shown by the strong increase overtime in the prevalence of bedridden increase overtime in the prevalence of bedridden centenarians (Gondo, personal communication, centenarians (Gondo, personal communication, 2007) whereas in Denmark, where the increase 2007) whereas in Denmark, where the increase in the number of centenarians is very slow, in the number of centenarians is very slow, centenarians perform significantly better in 2005 centenarians perform significantly better in 2005 than their counterparts of 1995 (Engberg et al, than their counterparts of 1995 (Engberg et al, 2007).2007).

Thank you!

Société Suisse de Médecine Interne, Lausanne, May 21, Société Suisse de Médecine Interne, Lausanne, May 21, 20012001

Press Conference,Press Conference,

Grand âge : jusqu’où pouvons nous Grand âge : jusqu’où pouvons nous aller ? aller ?

Jean-Marie RobineJean-Marie Robine

Increase in life expectancy in SwitzerlandIncrease in life expectancy in Switzerland

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

SMe0

SMe60

SMe80

Extrapolation linéaire

Extrapolation linéaire

Extrapolation linéaire

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

SFe0

SFe60

SFe80

Extrapolation linéaire

Extrapolation linéaire

Extrapolation linéaire

Robine & Paccaud, 2005

LEXIS’S NORMAL LIFE DURATIONS

Lexis, 1878