UNICEF & Anti-Vaccination TrendsSocial Media Analytics to Save LivesFebruary 2013 prepared by Traxion

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Meet the presenters

Sebastian MajewskiUnited Nationssmajewski@unicef.org@sebmaje

Emily ChamblissTraxion & Attention USAechambliss@attentionusa.com@emilychambliss

The need for social media research

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Social media analytics is tackling real world problems.

UNICEF vaccinations in the CEE-CIS region

Social media is a global phenomenon.

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Purpose: to better understand anti-vaccination conversations & factors that affect parental decisions in the CEE-CIS.

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To reach this goal, we developed questions to guide the research.

– Why parents are refusing vaccinations?– What are the concerns about vaccines?– What are their ideas/perceptions?– Who is influencing the discussion?– Which networks are being used?– Where are they located?– How to respond?

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The monitoring approach

Social media conversations offer the depth of qualitative research and the sample sizes of quantitative research in real time.

– How do we detect digital smoke signals?

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Research findings will have real world applications.

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Important questions to keep in mind

– How can we ensure ethical consideration regarding privacy?

– What pieces of data are valid and useful to the research?

– How do we apply this research in a greater context?

Social Media Research:Methodology

Research Questions:

– Terms/phrases?– Languages?– Timeframe? – Social pages?– Metrics?

Required Resources:

– Social data analysts– Non-English translators– Tracx– Information– Time

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After meticulous coordination & planning…

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Using various types of metrics & data collection

Volume Channels EngagementSentiment Analysis

We analyzed conversations from 22,000 people across social media.

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From May to July 2012, 22,000 people participated in social media discussions about vaccination refusal in English, Russian, Romanian and Polish.

Phase 1– Identify goals– Gather research– Identify topics– Identify languages– Set up tracking

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We structured the research into four phases.

Spotlight Pages– UNICEF Networks: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube – Regional Pages: USA, Russia, Romania, Poland

Search Queries– UNICEF + Vaccines– WHO + Vaccines– CDC + Vaccines– Anti-vaccination (general)

Language– English– Polish– Russian– Romanian

Phase 3– Extract & compile data– Quantitative & qualitative

analyses– Research influencers– Review & translate verbatim

mentions

Phase 4– Gather insights from data

analyses– Synthesize non-English

insights– Construct the final report– Make strategic

recommendations based on key insights

Phase 2– Scrub data– Refine queries– Identify topics– Add new queries to

segment data by topic

Query Topics– Side effects– Efficacy– Unnecessary– Religion/Ethics– Distrust

Government/Industries

– Chemicals/Unnatural

– Western Plot– Developmental

disabilities– Pakistan ban

The Global Conversation

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Men Women0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Gender

Facebook

Blog

YouTube

Twitter

Forum

News

Other*

Men Women7% 3%

39%35%

26%

24%

19%

18%

7%17%

2% 2%

Age

60+

50 - 60

40 - 50

30 - 40

20 - 30

10 - 20

Young women drive the global anti-vaccination conversation on Blogs & Facebook.

Pakistan

Ireland

India

Mexico

Germany

Canada

Australia

Panama

UK

USA

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.6%

0.7%

1.7%

2.1%

3.0%

3.3%

81.9%

Locations

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Anti-vaccination discussions typically occur in the US on Blogs, Facebook, & Forums.

Blog47%

Facebook25%

Forum14%

News5%

Twitter5%

Tumblr3%

YouTube1%

Networks

Positive6%

Neutral51%

Negitive43%

Sentiment

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English is the most common language used to discuss anti-vaccination followed by Polish & Russian.

English88%

Polish8%

Russian3%

Romanian1%

Anti-vaccination discussions

Polish67%

Russian25%

Romanian8%

Non-English discussions

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Blog86%

Facebook8%

News6%

PakistanIreland

IndiaMexico

GermanyCanada

AustraliaPanama

UKUSA

0.4%0.5%0.6%0.6%0.7%1.7%2.1%3.0%3.3%

81.9%

English

Blog48%

Facebook25%

News5%

Twitter5%

Forum14%

YouTube1%

Tumblr3%

UzbekistanAzerbaijan

LatviaKazakhstan

BelarusNetherlands

GermanyUSA

UkraineRussia

0.5%0.5%1.1%1.2%1.3%1.4%4.8%5.3%14.8%65.3%

Russian

Blogs allow anti-vaccination discussions to reach outside countries & populations.

UKPortugalBulgaria

ColombiaItaly

GermanyMoldova

USARomania

0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%1%3%9%11%74%

Romanian

IndiaCzech Republic

DenmarkIndonesia

FranceUK

NetherlandsGermany

USAPoland

0.3%0.3%0.3%0.4%1.2%1.9%2.6%3.7%15.2%71.1%

Polish

Blog65%

Facebook25%

News1%

Twitter24%

Forum4%

Blog85%

Facebook25%

News1% YouTube

0%

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Blogs, Forums, & Facebook facilitate the most engaging discussions about anti-vaccination.

Blog News Forum Facebook Twitter Reddit YouTube Tumblr Other*0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000 Posts

Interactions

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Opportunities exist for UNICEF to join organic anti-vaccination discussions.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

UNICEF/WHO/CDC + Vaccines Anti-Vaccination

CDC Announces Autism Increase

CA Bill AB2109

CDC: Measles Incidence increased in 2011

VT Debates Ending “Philosophical Exemption”

WA Increase in Whooping Cough

Mayim Bialik on NPR’s Science Friday does not vaccinate her kids

Autism One Conference 2012 in Chicago

CDC’s Vaccines For Children study shows vaccines improperly stored

Dr. Oz admits not vaccinating kids, while advocating for vaccines.

Whooping Cough Outbreak in OR

Mike Huckabee supports Pakistan to ban polio vaccine.

Pampers supports UNICEF giving tetanus shots.

Immunization Week in Zimbabwe

Freedom Fest 2012 in Las Vegas

CDC: Whooping Cough Epidemic worst in 50 years, calling for adult vaccinations.

Anti-vaccination Arguments

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27%

6%

24%15%

1%

14%

4%9%

English

Religion/Ethics

Side effects

Distrust Government/Industries

Toxins/Unnatural

Unnecessary

Developmental Disabilities

Efficacy

Western Plot

The prevalence of anti-vaccination topics shows the specific concerns associated with each population.

65%

32%

3%

Romanian

11%

35%

7%6%7%

19%

3%12%

Polish

97%

2%

Russian

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VACCINUL ANTI -HPV UCIDE!!! O elevă de 14 ani din Marea Britanie a murit după ce i-a fost administrată o doză de vaccin împotriva cancerului de col uterin: Vaccinuri inutile si periculoase: “Gardasil (Silgard) şi Cervarixul sunt două vaccinuri folosite împotriva virusului HPV (şi nu a cancerului de col uterin cum ni se spune)!

HPV vaccine KILL! A student of 14 years in Britain died after being administered a dose of vaccine against cervical cancer: unnecessary and dangerous vaccines "Gardasil (Gardasil) and Cervarix are two vaccines against HPV (not cancer cervical we are told)!

Romanian Examples

The proponents of the vaccination theory: Jenner and Pasteur's followers - the Vaccine Mafia

In the United States, it is widely known across media channels that over 5,000 families believe that their children's autism was caused by this vaccine, however the actual number is certainly much greater. Such legislative decisions against ROR include a 90,000 pound settlement to a little boy called Robert Fletcher for cerebral lesions as well as a 1.5 million dollar settlement to Hannah Poling's parents who started showing autism signs the day after receiving six different vaccines including ROR.

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Недавно проведённое большое исследование подтверждает результаты других независимых наблюдений, где сравнивались привитые и непривитые дети. Все они показывают, что вакцинированные дети болеют от 2 до 5 раз чаще, чем невакцинированные дети.

Source: http://epidemnews.ru Вакцинация против пандемического гриппа H1N1, известного также как "свиной", может приводить к развитию синдрома Гийена-Барре, острого полирадикулита у взрослых, свидетельствуют данные канадских ученых, опубликованные в журнале JAMA.

Source: www.rutoday.ru

A recent large study confirms the results of other independent observations, which compared vaccinated and unvaccinated children. They all show that vaccinated children suffer from 2 to 5 times more often than non-vaccinated children.

Vaccination against pandemic influenza H1N1, also known as "swine", can lead to the development of Guillain-Barré syndrome, acute poliradikulita in adults, according to the Canadian researchers, published in the journal JAMA.

Russian Examples

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In Poland, no one was vaccinated, because the health minister, Ewa Kopacz, who is a doctor, decided that it would not be too safe. "As a physician, I am guided by the principle of not harming others" - Kopacz said in the Polish parliament in 2009. – ”We will not purchase vaccine for swine flu."

… in 2007 a dozen of homeless people in Poland who, without their knowledge, were vaccinated against bird flu– died …

For over 30 years in the U.S., pharmaceutical companies produce vaccines derived from aborted fetal tissue (…)

Polish Examples

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English Examples

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Arguments against vaccination vary by gender.

Men tend to be more concerned with topics that focus on the bigger picture.

Women tend to be more concerned with granular topics, focusing on direct cause & effect.

Developmental Disabilities

Unnecessary

Side Effects

Chemicals/Unnatural

Distrust Government/Industry

Religion/Ethics

Efficacy

Western Plot

59%

58%

54%

51%

48%

42%

41%

37%

41%

42%

46%

49%

52%

58%

59%

63%

Female Male

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At first glance, Religion/Ethics appeared to be the most engaging anti-vaccination topic.

Distrust Government/Industries

Chemicals/Unnatural

Developmental Disabilities

Side effects

Western Plot

Efficacy

Unnecessary

Activity Volume

PostsInteractions

Religion/Ethics

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But analyzing various metrics pointed to three topics: Distrust, Disabilities, Chemicals.

Rank by Activity Volume

Rank by Impact Ratio

Rank by Conversation Density

Rank by Engagement Rate

Religion/Ethics Developmental Disabilities Distrust Government/Industries Developmental Disabilities

Distrust Government/Industries

Distrust Government/Industries Developmental Disabilities Chemicals/Unnatural

Chemicals/Unnatural Chemicals/Unnatural Chemicals/Unnatural Distrust Government/Industries

Developmental Disabilities Unnecessary Side effects Unnecessary

Side Effects Side Effects Western Plot Religion/Ethics

Western Plot Religion/Ethics Unnecessary Efficacy

Efficacy Western Plot Religion/Ethics Western Plot

Unnecessary Efficacy Efficacy Side effects

Anti-Vaccination advocates leverage their social networks to influence others about health, parenting, & policy.

Influencer Networks Description

Dr. Joseph Mercola Facebook, Twitter, Blog Naturopathic doctor against vaccines

Vactruth.com Blog Concern with vaccines having aborted fetal tissue, chemicals used in pesticides, & heavy metals

Zen Gardner – Just Wondering Blog Conspiracies aimed at media, government, science, etc.

Dr. Tenpenny on Vaccines Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest Osteopathic doctor argues that vaccines cause brain injury

Left Brain/Right Brain Blog Autism news science & opinion, anti-vaccination leaning

Thinking Moms’ Revolution Blog, Facebook Parent-focused

Proud Parents of Unvaccinated Children Facebook Argues that vaccinated children get unvaccinated children sick, doctors have inadequate education, Big Pharma controls what doctors learn in medical school

The Refusers Facebook, Twitter, Tumblr Anti-government, anti-corporate, argues that neurotoxins in vaccines cause brain damage

Natural News Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest, Blog Alternative Medicine blog

Greenmedinfo.com Blog Alternative Medicine blog

Worldtruth.tv Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, Digg, LinkedIn, Tumblr, Google+, YouTube

Argues the Pharmaceutical-Industrial Complex pushes harmful vaccines, and vaccinated kids get more sick than unvaccinated kids

DailySalt.org Blog Alternative Medicine blog

Cafemom.com Forum Vaccination studies and effects explored

VaccineInjury.info Blog Argues for natural immunity to regain health

EverydayHealth.org Blog Alternative Medicine blog

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Dr. Tenpenny targets women with emotional appeal & medical authority.

40K Facebook Fans1.6K Twitter Followers48 Pinterest Followers

Features– Multiple social networks– Multiple websites– Digital content variety– Women-focused– Authoritative

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Natural News presents as an accessible health & wellness authority.

270K Facebook Fans51K Twitter Followers4.6K Pinterest Followers42K YouTube Subscribers

Features– Multiple social networks– Digital content variety– Lifestyle oriented– Free Information– Authoritative

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27K Facebook Fans1K Twitter Followers453 YouTube Subscribers72 Pinterest Followers

WorldTruth.TV’s international focus on conspiracies appeals to fear.

Features– Multiple social networks– Authenticity & Authority– Apocalyptic theme – Internationally-focused– Opportunity to donate

Insights & Implementation

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Core Members

Intense Member

Alert Members

Model of Anti-vaccination Sentiment Identification & Salience

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Homeopathy

Green Movement

Population ControlAnti-capitalism

Medical-Industrial Complex

Faith in God

Alternative Medicine

Freedom of Choice

Arguments for vaccine refusal are interrelated & associated with existing beliefs & values.

Religion/Ethics

Side Effects

Distrust of Government/Industries

Unnecessary

Toxins/UnnaturalDevelopmental

Disabilities

Efficacy Western Plot

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Comprehensive Education

Uninformed

Why do parents refuse vaccinations for their children?

How do they feel?

Acknowledgement

Transparency

More Vaccine Research

Accessible Information

Assurance

Freedom to Choose

Opportunity to contribute

Disempowered

Distrustful

Suspicious

Skeptical

Scared

Frustrated

Conflicted

Guidance

What do they want?

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Engagement strategies flowed directly from our findings.

Questions?

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Contact

Sebastian MajewskiUnited Nationssmajewski@unicef.org@sebmaje

Emily ChamblissTraxion & Attention USAechambliss@attentionusa.com@emilychambliss

Appendix

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Popular arguments reflect traditional American values.

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Religion/Ethics27%

Distrust Gov-ernment/Indus-

tries24%

Chemicals/Non-natu-

ral15%

Develop-mental

Disabilities14%

Western Plot9%

Side ef -fects6%

Efficacy4%

Unnecessary1%

Social Media ParticipantsThe relative popularity of topics reflects the collective concerns of the English-speaking Anti-Vaccination community—freedom, ethics, religion, and health—typical values of most Americans.

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Each metric tells a slightly different story about each topic

Unnecessa

ry

Efficac

y

Western

Plot

Side e

ffects

Developmen

tal Disa

bilities

Chemica

ls/Non-natu

ral

Distrust G

overnmen

t/Industr

ies

Religio

n/Ethics

Interactions Posts

Activity Volume Impact Ratio

Topic Impact

Developmental Disabilities 2.7

Distrust Government/Industries 1.9

Chemicals/Unnatural 1.9

Unnecessary 1.6

Side Effects 1.1

Religion/Ethics 1

Western Plot 1

Efficacy 0.9

• Looking at activity volume showed Religion/Ethics to be the most engaging topic.• Looking at impact ratio showed Developmental Disabilities to be the most engaging topic.

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Each metric tells a slightly different story about each topic

Topic Density

Distrust Government/Industries 7.9

Developmental Disabilities 6.9

Chemicals/Unnatural 6.9

Side effects 6.3

Western Plot 5.8

Unnecessary 5.5

Religion/Ethics 5.2

Efficacy 4.4

People per Conversation Engagement Rate

Topic Engagement

Developmental Disabilities 20%

Chemicals/Unnatural 16%

Distrust Government/Industries 14%

Unnecessary 14%

Religion/Ethics 11%

Efficacy 11%

Western Plot 11%

Side effects 10%

• More people were involved per conversation about Distrust Government/Industries.• Posts about Developmental Disabilities became conversations more frequently than other topics.

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The Refusers advocate against vaccines through music & “authenticity."

10K Facebook Fans13K Twitter Followers139 YouTube Subscribers

Features– Multiple networks– Entertainment content– Social activism– American values– Conspiracy

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14K Facebook Fans730 Twitter Followers444 YouTube Subscribers

VacTruth.com triggers parental fears by emphasizing responsibility.

Features– Multiple social networks– Educational– Empowering– Authoritative– Clean, simple design