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Social-ecological modeling of pastoral land use under global change !"#$"%&'())*#&
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Research topics
Content-wise: Pastoralism under global change
1.! What is the relative importance of climatic versus socio-economic change on pastoral land use?
2.! What are intended but also unintended effects of new policy instruments and new technologies for risk management on livelihood security of pastoralists and ecological sustainability?
3.! What is the potential of local knowledge for resilient pastoralism?
Methodological contributions:
1.! MORE – Reference frame: Models for resilience thinking and ecosystem stewardship
2.! Standard protocol to describe social-ecological models with emphasis on human decision making: ODD+D
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Case study: (Post-)nomadic land use in Morocco
(2) Eastern High Plateau (1) High Atlas
+ On the way: Case study Tibetan Highlands (Qinghai Province)
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Household of nomad (agent-based view) Preferences/goals
A2: Grazing strategy Transport of animals (without, local, long distant), Supplementary feeding, Resting (agdal)
A: Household strategies A1: Diversification: migration/!
R2) Monetary resources
R1) Incorporated resources: Working force, Education, Health
R4) Social initialized resources Social networks
R3) Allocative Resources: a) Trucks, Fences,
Supplementary fodder b) Pasture land c) Animals
Breuer 2007
Sale of animals
Vegetation dynamics under grazing
Dynamic of herd size
System components and interactions: Resource portfolio and activity portfolio
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Climate change Animal Markets
Social change (alternative income sources)
Influence of change processes and policy instruments
Fodder Markets Liberalization:
Subsidies Technological change (use of trucks, supplementary feeding)
Access regimes
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System components that confer resilience
!! Ecological buffer mechanisms / key resources (incl. resting: Agdal, Mahmia) !! Additional income from national and international migration !! High mobility of animals by use of trucks
Future trajectories or alternative (undesirable) states
!! Degradation of pastoral areas !! Livelihood (in)security / Polarization of pastoralists
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Generic models
Basic principles Transferability
Structural-realistic models
Understanding of -! Cross-scale interactions -! Resilience mechanisms
Toy models
Interdisciplinary communication Experimentation for transformation
Rapid hypotheses testing
Participatory modeling
Problem framing Social learning
Society (Adaptation &
Transformation)
Case studies (Link to real world)
Theory (Conceptual foundation) General Principles Grounded in reality
Resilience Thinking
Methodological contribution (1) Review: MORE – Models for Resilience Thinking and Ecosystem Stewardship
Schlüter, M., Müller, B., & Frank, K. 2012, available at SSRN
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Methodological contribution (1) Toy models - tool of thinking
Identification of unintended side-effects of new instruments " change to less sustainable land-use strategies
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Stylized process-based models which include ecological and socio-economic components and feedbacks in time
Pitfalls and chances of new technologies/ policies to manage climate risk for pastoralists
1.!Example: Rain-index insurance Farmer with access to rain-index insurances may choose less sustainable strategy than without access
2. Example: Supplementary feeding
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Methodological contribution (2) Standard protocol to describe ABMs (with focus on human decision making) - ODD+D
Based on Grimm et al. 2006, 2010 in Ecological Modelling
Müller, B. et al. 2012 available at SSRN (www.ssrn.com )
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Thanks to
Collaborative research centre on relationship of nomad and sedentary people: Funded by German Research Foundation (DFG)
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Team: Karin Frank, Romina Drees at Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Leipzig, Germany
Ingo Breuer, David Kreuer, Andreas Gruschke at University Leipzig, Germany