Social and Economic Assessment Report (Final Draft V1)planning.gov.mv/.../DHIRAM2_SocioEcon_Methodology_FinalDraftV1.pdf · Detailed Island Risk Assessment in Maldives Social and

Detailed Island Risk Assessment in Maldives

Social and Economic Assessment Report

(Final Draft V1)

Volume II: Methodology

DIRAM team

Disaster Risk Management Programme

UNDP Maldives

August 2009

DIRAM 2 – Socio-economic Assessment Report: Methodology

ii

Table of Contents

1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 3

2 Social Vulnerability Assessment ...................................................................................................... 3

2.1 Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 3

2.1.1 Overall Assessment Framework ...................................................................................... 3

2.1.2 The Conceptual Framework ............................................................................................ 4

2.1.3 Social Component Assessment Framework .................................................................... 5

2.2 Working Procedures................................................................................................................ 9

2.2.1 In-house data collection .................................................................................................. 9

2.2.2 Field Surveys ................................................................................................................. 10

2.3 Results interpretation and Presentation .............................................................................. 12

3 Economic Vulnerability ................................................................................................................. 14

3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 14

3.1.1 The Conceptual Framework .......................................................................................... 14

3.1.2 Economic Component Assessment Framework ........................................................... 15

3.2 Data Needs and Requirement ............................................................................................... 18

3.3 Working Procedures.............................................................................................................. 19

3.3.1 In-house data collection & literature review ................................................................ 19

3.3.2 Field Surveys ................................................................................................................. 21

3.4 Results interpretation and Presentation .............................................................................. 23

References ............................................................................................................................................ 24

APPENDIX 1 – Household Questionnaire Survey .................................................................................. 25

APPENDIX 2 – Island Information Form ................................................................................................ 26

APPENDIX 3 - Business Establishments Survey Form ........................................................................... 27


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1 Introduction This volume presents the methodologies used to assess the socio-economic vulnerability of the

selected islands. The two components (social and economic) are an extension of DHIRAM1 and

therefore follow the broad framework proposed in the initial study. The material presented in this

volume is intended as a methodological framework to guide future risk assessments in other

inhabited islands of Maldives. This volume is organized into two broad sections: Social and Economic

Vulnerability Assessments.

2 Social Vulnerability Assessment Disaster vulnerability is socially constructed; that is, it arises out of social and economic

circumstances of everyday living (Morrow, 1999). The basis of natural hazard and disaster

vulnerability are predominantly recognized as linked to existing patterns of community settlement

and development (Varley, 1994). The impact of natural events on specific settlements or

communities is not arbitrary, but determined by everyday patterns of social interaction, population

characteristics and social organization (Wisner et al., 2003). Hence, the impact on any given

household is a result of complex interactions between a number of conditions including, geography

and location, physical condition of structures, economic characteristics, social interactions and

physical characteristics of its inhabitants (Wisner et al., 2003; Smith, 2004).

The proposed methodology is designed to explore these specific aspects of social vulnerability. It is

specifically designed to suit the social set-up of Maldives and limitations in long-term data

requirements for risk assessment. It is also based on international best practices in both the

developed and developing countries with key emphasis on appropriate transfer of such practices

into the Maldivian setting.

2.1 Methodology

2.1.1 Overall Assessment Framework

The broad assessment framework follows the composite risk assessment framework adopted in the

first part of the risk assessment project (see figure 2.1). In this framework the social assessment is

considered as a separate component which, based on its own results, will feed into the composite

risk assessment covering all components of the study. Hence, there is no specific limitation on the

methodology or model to be used. However, the end results need to be expressed as a standardized

risk index across the various components, so that it could feed into the overall risk assessment. The

methodological framework presented here will take these specific factors into account in their

design.


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Figure 2.1 An extended framework for composite risk assessment (source: (UNDP, 2007).

Hazard event

Exposure

Physica l damage

Functiona l impact

Economic impact

Socia l impact

Composite risk

Physica lVulnerab ility

Functiona lVulnerab ility

EconomicVulnerab ility

Socia lVulnerab ility

Hazardzone

Vulnerab ilitymodel

Scenario Outputs

In tens ity, frequency,probability, hazard zone

Population, property,facilities, environment

Damage to property,

facilities, environment

Disruption o f communication,power supply, water supply,

public services...

L ive lihood, GDP...

Panic, breakdown of socia lorder, housing, popula tion

d isp lacement...

Risk profiles

2.1.2 The Conceptual Framework

Figure 2.2 The conceptual framework of social vulnerability assessment.

Social Vulnerability Assessment

Environmentalsetting

Shelter Sustenance orcritical facilities

Individual orhousehold

characteristics

CommunityCharacteristics

Completed assessments

NaturalHazards


5

Social vulnerability assessment requires a number of key information, which is best conducted as

individual assessments within a broad framework. Four of the major assessments were already

completed before this study began. They are hazard assessment, environmental vulnerability

assessment, critical facilities or lifeline facilities vulnerability assessment and structural vulnerability

assessment of buildings. The two remaining assessments – community or society characteristics and

individual household characteristics – were conducted during this assessment.

The six key sets of data provide variables for the social vulnerability assessment. The hazard

assessment will provide major hazards faced on the island, their scenarios and likely impacts. The

environmental assessment will provide vulnerable areas on the island and in combination with

hazard assessment, it will provide hazard zones for the island. Physical vulnerability assessments will

provide the relative vulnerability of the lifeline infrastructures such as harbor, hospital, schools,

power, sewerage and drinking water supply. It will also provide detailed structural vulnerability of

buildings on the island, identifying specific households most vulnerable in physical terms. This

assessment will be designed to understand the societal characteristics including individuals,

households or families and community as a whole. This will include identifying the most vulnerable

groups, their spatial distribution, their risk perceptions, coping capacities and their attitudes towards

mitigation. In addition community characteristics not covered in other assessments such as food

security and economic security assessment will also be conducted.

2.1.3 Social Component Assessment Framework

The broad framework for assessment is outlined in figure 2.3. The reality of the social risk

assessment field is the lack of research into globally applicable and standardized models. It is difficult

to identify a single cohesive model that could fit the Maldivian context given the smallness of the

settlement concerned and the social capital characteristics. The framework presented here is

inspired by existing models but devised independently to suit the island conditions. It is also

specifically designed with simplicity in mind, since the whole idea of this entire project is to create a

set of methodologies which could be easily replicated by less technical staff on to other islands.

The framework is essentially divided into five main components: 1) identifying key population and

societal characteristics; 2) identifying and assessing potential vulnerable groups; 3) assessing

community capacity and coping mechanisms; 4) assessing social consequences of disasters and; 5)

evaluating risk management options.


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Figure 2.3: Social component assessment framework

Identify Key Population & SocietalCharacteristics

In-house dataanalysis

Field Surveys(household surveysPRAs)

Assessment ComponentMethod Output

- Key indicatorsof population characteristics- Spatial level of

assessment (householdor block)- Other Social capitalcharacteristics

Identify and Assess Potential Vulnerable Groups

Assess Community Capacity &Coping Mechanisms

Pre-identified vulnerable Groupsbased on literature

Field assessmentfor any new groups(interviews & islandoffice data)

- List of potentialVulnerable groups- List of households/blocks in each group

Sample basedStructured & semi structured fieldinterviews in

households

semi-structuredinterviews withcommunity groups

- Adjusted Final list of vulnerable groups- Factors enhancingvulnerability

- factors reducing vulnerability- Risk perception ofgroups & community- Coping capacity- Coping mechanisms

during disasters &everyday life.

Assess Social Consequencesof Disaster

Data on: - Access to basic services- Vulnerable groups- unsafe conditions- organization and networks- trust and solidarity- political and civic participation- perception of risks- wealth- coping strategies- administrative capacity- historical impacts ofdisasters- Hazard, environmental andphysical vulnerability

- Socio-demographicimpacts- Socio-political impacts- Factors enhancing

disaster effects- Factors reducing disaster effects

Identification of risk managementoptions

Expert judgement

Past experiences ofMaldives andother countries

Potential options for- Risk reduction and management- mitigation

- preparedness- response and recovery


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Each of these components is discussed in detail below.

Identifying Key Societal and Population Characteristics

This component of the assessment essentially involves understanding the social capital of each

island. A comprehensive list of data elements and their sources is presented later in the ‘Working

Procedures’ section.

The data can be collected from key statistical surveys including Census 2006 data, Vulnerability and

poverty assessment data for 2004 and Household Income and Expenditure Survey. These reports

and datasets are available from the Department of National Planning. Further collection of data

should be undertaken during field visits, specifically using household questionnaire surveys and

stakeholder consultations. Additional sources of information are the island office and NGOs.

Moreover household level economic assessment, such as economic linkages (see section on

Economic assessment), will be used to assess the economic conditions as relevant to the social

component.

Identify and Assess Potential Vulnerable Groups

Vulnerable groups could be pre-identified based on studies undertaken in other developing

countries and Maldives. Initial desk assessments can be targeted at studying these vulnerable

groups.

There are two key levels of assessment: household and community level. Most people experience

and respond to major natural hazards as households first. Trying to save the family members

becomes the first priority followed by community responsibility in helping out both during and after

a disaster.

The pre-identified vulnerability groups are:

1. Poor households

2. Female headed households

3. Households with disabled persons

4. Household with majority elderly and children

5. Households with single source of income and based on a vulnerable industry

6. Household in vulnerable areas of the island

7. Newly re-settled groups

8. Expatriates

Information on these groups can be filtered using the existing census data at household level and

Island Office data. Any gaps in data can be filled during community consultations. At present, the

data is expected to be of high resolution and high accuracy.

Initial work on pre-identification will be done in-house and final compilation of the groups will be

undertaken during the field visits. Trained enumerators will need to be used to conduct the survey in

a timely manner.

The main outputs of the component would be a comprehensive snap shot of the vulnerable groups

and households on the island.


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Assessing Community Capacity and Coping Mechanisms

This assessment will be undertaken using stakeholder consultations, household questionnaires and

semi-structured individual interviews. The key elements that would be determined are as follows:

1. Determine availability of food on the island and in vulnerable homes, stockpiling/storage of

emergency food supply and any issues related to accessibility.

2. Determine availability and access to basic services, lifeline infrastructure and emergency

services, and analyzing the mechanisms of service delivery.

3. Determine physical and economic resources on the island.

4. Making an in-depth analysis of elements of social cohesion, community social processes,

social networking, community groups and their interactions, political and civic participation,

trust and solidarity.

5. Determine community and household perception of disasters, mitigation and coping

mechanisms.

6. Determine the perception of community members about integrating outsiders in their

community which may affect or influence island’s social cohesion and stability. This should

be done in islands with resettlement programmes.

7. Determine existing community response and recovery mechanisms during a potential

disaster.

8. Examining informal institutional mechanisms or island level formations existing in the islands

that may or may have played a crucial role in disaster response and recovery.

More details of the field procedures and analysis techniques are provided in the next section.

Assessing Social Consequences of Disaster

The social consequences from disaster will be constructed by evaluating the existing socio-economic

characteristics and community capacity against past impacts of disasters in other islands and in

other countries (with similar social settings). Impacts will also be largely influenced by community

views and their perceptions of disaster situation on the island. If the island has experienced a

disaster event in the past then those experiences will form a basis for impact assessment albeit after

accounting for new social changes.

The entire study was initially designed to have a spatial perspective. It was designed to suit a spatial

model whereby a Geographic Information System (GIS) could be used to undertake essential spatial

analyses. Hence, all the households in specific islands were be geocoded onto a basemap, and linked

to the Census database and data collected on individual households. However, the Department of

National Planning advised us that would not be possible due to privacy restrictions to Census

database. We were also advised not to identify individual households against certain socio-economic

characteristics like income, particularly in a document that would be published. The spatial

perspective was therefore abandoned.

Identification of risk management options

The final component of the assessment will involve identifying risk management options based on

the study. These assessments will be based on community suggestions, expert judgment,

experiences of other countries and findings from other similar studies in Maldives.


9

Key areas of concentration would be identifying options for risk reduction and management,

mitigation, preparedness and response and recovery.

2.2 Working Procedures

2.2.1 In-house data collection

As noted above data collection will be undertaken both in-house and in the field. Table 2.1 below

summarises the key data that could be collected in-house, their sources and reliability.

Table 2.1: List of data collected during desk study

Parameter Data Source Contact

Person or

Agency

Reliability

Infrastructure data - Databases in

Department of

National Planning

(DNP), National

Disaster

management Centre

(NDMC), Ministry of

Home Affairs;

- Island data form

- DNP;NDMC

- Ministry of

Home Affairs;

Island Office

Good

Very good

Migrant community data

(number of migrants; origin;

date of relocation and type of

relocation)

- NDMC and Island

Office assistance

lists

- Census 2006

NDMC; Island

Office

DNP

Good but some

persons are missing if

they have relocated

on their own outside

Govt assistance.

Community NGOs Official list of NGOs Ministry of

Home Affairs

Good; needs to be

verified during field

survey as some are

non-active.

Vulnerable groups data at

household level (young

population; elderly; Female

headed households;

households with single

persons; households with only

dependents; people lacking

education skills; temporary

residents; unemployment)

Census 2006 DNP V. Good; but the data

is outdated by two

years which may be

significant given high

out migration from all

outer islands.

Expatriates Island Office; Census

2006

Island Office;

DNP

Poor; There is no

official registrar of

foreigners and some

remain illegally.

Wealth (income) and poverty Vulnerability and

Poverty Assessment

2004 (VPAII);

Household Income

DNP Average; Small

sample in VPAII; HIES

is done only for a

limited number of


10

and Expenditure

Survey (HIES).

islands

Economic Groups Census 2006 DNP Good

Population and migration

characteristics

Census 2006 DNP Good

Housing Data (no. of

households; plot size; available

plots; etc..)

Census 2006; Island

office

Island Office;

DNP

Good

Land use (existing and

planned)

Land use maps;

Census maps

DNP Good; most islands do

not have a finalised

land use plan.

Crime Atoll police outposts Police Average; difficult to

break down to

various time periods.

Cannot effectively

evaluate trends.

Social conflicts and major

crimes (last 5 years)

Newspaper reports HaveeruOnline Good

Natural hazard risks;

Environmental vulnerability;

Physical (infrastructure and

housing) vulnerability

DHIRAM1 UNDP and

DNP

Good

The data listed above usually comes in digital form but some may have to be digitised manually,

particularly those provided by the island office. All data are compiled into separate databases.

Existing databases such as Census 2006 and VPAII are prepared by analysing the data and table

structure. This is a crucial step in undertaking the analysis as these datasets are quite large and

complex.

2.2.2 Field Surveys

Field surveys will be conducted to determine various parameters required to conduct the analysis

Table 2.2 highlights the main surveys, data collection procedures, the parameters assessed and

resources required.

Table 2.2: List of main surveys and their details

Survey Survey Process Resources

Required

Parameters observed

- Household

Questionnaire

Survey (see

Appendix 1).

- Determine the sample

size (this study used

10% of all households)

- Select random sample

households (this study

used random sample

based on spatial

distribution – one

household per block or

more)

Survey Forms; 5

surveyors;

Stationary; island

maps

- All parameters

highlighted in the

Questionnaire. It covers

education levels,

employment status,

household details, trust

and solidarity,

volunteering, political

participation, social

cohesion and inclusion,


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Required

Parameters observed

- Train surveyors

- Conduct surveys

concurrently

throughout the island.

Visiting times should

avoid prayer times and

consider visiting in the

afternoon (outside

working hours) to avoid

interviewing only

women.

- Daily field meeting to

summarise main

findings.

- Data entry

collective action and

cooperation, coping

strategies and disaster

perception of individual

households.

- Additionally, visual

observation of housing

construction, their

location on the island

and neighbourhood is

also undertaken.

Stakeholder

consultations

(semi-

structured

discussions)

- Identify key

stakeholders on the

island during the initial

meeting with the island

office. This usually

includes IDC, WDC,

NGOs, influential

persons (businessmen,

elderly), economic

groups – fishermen,

traders, farmers, civil

servants and

construction workers.

- Request for

stakeholder meetings.

- Conduct stakeholder

meetings, preferably

separately but usually

IDC and key

businessmen are the

same.

Trained social

scientist

Flip charts

Island maps

Digital voice

recorder

Questions sheet

- Questions relating to the

access to services,

community organization,

social activities, past

natural hazards, political

activism, solidarity, social

cohesion, collective

actions, perception of

risks, coping

mechanisms, community

resources to cope,

perceptions on risk

management, mitigation,

preparedness and

recovery.

Transect Walks - Identify two major

roads for surveying (for

an island less than 50

Ha). It should not be

the main road as they

have an inherent

business advantage

(locational).

- Conduct interviews

with random

Aerial

photograph or

map of the

island.

Five support staff

Stationary

- Questions relating to the

access to services,

community organization,

social activities, seasonal

calendar, past natural

hazards, political

activism, solidarity, social

cohesion, collective

actions, perception of

risks, coping


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Required

Parameters observed

individuals from each

block. The household

questionnaire should

be used as a guide.

mechanisms, community

resources to cope,

perceptions on risk

management, mitigation,

preparedness and

recovery.

Island Survey

form

(see Appendix

2)

- Submit to Island office

for completion;

completion by survey

team with the island

office staff is preferred.

One staff

Island survey

form

Stationary

- See island Form in

Appendix 2

Island office

meeting

- Conduct a meeting with

senior island office staff

Survey team

- All gaps remaining in

island data.

- Expatriates information

2.3 Results interpretation and Presentation

The basis of the analysis should be the data collected in the field. It will have to be supported by

existing detailed surveys, particularly the Census 2006 and VPAII. General socio-economic setting

should be derived from the Island Survey Form, Island Form and other parameters identified in the

in-house assessments.

Data analysis for the Questionnaire Survey should ideally be undertaken using a statistical package

to evaluate the correlation. However, to facilitate easy duplication of the method, simple

percentages could be used interpret the results. There are significant limitations in this approach but

the end result could still be within a reasonable error range. The analysis should be centred upon

determining the key trends in each of the categories identified in the questionnaire.

The findings from the stakeholder consultations should be used to determine the community

capacity and coping mechanisms.

The assessment could be organized and presented into 4 main groups: i) baseline social conditions;

ii) evaluation of the potential social effects on the community of a disaster - eg. tsunami event; iii)

measures to reduce vulnerability to disasters.

The baseline social conditions should cover the following information. They should be based on the

questionnaire survey, island survey form and other background data highlighted in the previous

section.

1. Access to basic services

2. Migrant Communities

3. Organizations and Networks


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4. Trust and Solidarity

5. Political and Civic Participation

6. Vulnerable groups

7. Wealth

8. Perception of risks

9. How they cope

10. Perception of Risks and Coping Strategies

The potential social effects of disasters on the community should be based on at least one high

magnitude event. Ideally impacts should be measured separately for all potential hazards and

scenarios but the social assessments would tend to provide similar results.

1. Physical Impacts

2. Socio-demographic Impacts

3. Socio-political Impacts

4. Factors enhancing the effects of a Disaster

5. Factors reducing the effects of a Disaster

Measures to reduce social vulnerability to disasters should cover four broad categories as follows:

1. Risk reduction and management

2. Mitigation

3. Preparedness

4. Response & recovery


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3 Economic Vulnerability

3.1 Introduction

Economic vulnerability assessment is increasingly becoming an important component in community

level risk assessment. Traditionally, economic assessments were limited to national level

assessments and were mostly used within the insurance community. With the advent of new

research into the social impacts of economic loss during natural hazards, especially in smaller

communities, attention to economic vulnerability assessments in public risk assessment projects is

gathering pace.

This project aims to understand the economic vulnerability of the nine selected islands by

forecasting the economic and social impacts from given hazard scenarios. The methodology

proposed below revolves around an ‘Island Economic Linkage Model’ which is designed to identify

the economic networking within islands and consequences of failure in various nodes of the

networks during natural hazards. Assessments will be carried out by quantifying and valuing various

nodes and linkages within the economy.

3.1.1 The Conceptual Framework

Fig. 3.1 The conceptual framework of economic vulnerability assessment

Economic Vulnerability Assessment

Socialsetting

Physical vulnerabilityof investment

assets

Sustenance orcritical facilities

Quantified EconomicLinkages

Model

Completed and to-be-completed assessments

Hazard Scenarios&

Hazard Zones

As noted above, the economic vulnerability assessment will revolve around a quantified Island

Economic Linkage Model (IELM). A number of other key information is required which would provide

information on natural hazards, physical vulnerability and social setting. This information will be

utilized from outputs of the already completed components. The most crucial data includes hazards

scenario, hazard zones, physical vulnerability of investment assets (public and private enterprises),

critical infrastructure and social set-up.

Once a quantitative IELM is constructed for each island, impacts from a selected scenario for each

natural hazard combined with physical vulnerability data will be used to assess effects on the model.


15

These effects when quantified in monetary terms provide the economic impacts of any given

scenario on a range of levels including internal, external and national levels.

3.1.2 Economic Component Assessment Framework

Figure 3.2 Economic component assessment framework

Compile Key Economic Data

SecondaryEconomic Data

Field Data

Assessment ComponentInput Output

- Key economiccategories and groups- estimated

Economic valueof individualactivities- Production- Employment

Establish Island Economic LinkageModel

Quantify Island Economic LinkageModel

Key economic data

Key business

infrstrucure,entities & industries

Forward & backward linkages

- IELM

Financial valuesof assets, productionemployment

Hazard Scenarios,hazard zones

Physical Vuln. Identify & Quantify Economic Impacts forVarious Hazards & Scenarios

Outputs frompreviouscomponent

- List of recommend.for reducing econvulnerability- Preliminary

action plan

Identify Recommendations

- Env. mitigationoptions

- social mitigation

options

- physc. mitigationoptions

- safe island components

- Cost and benefits of mitigation- Budget implications- Policy implications

Benefit-cost analysis of all mitigation measures

- Quantified IELM

Quantified IELM

Loss estimates &probabilities

- Quantified impactsfor each hazard,economic sector &social group

- most econ. vulnerablesectors, key vulner.factors, social groups.- composite index ofvulnerabi lity


16

The broad framework for assessment is outlined above in figure 5. The framework is divided into 6

main components: 1) compiling key economic data; 2) establishing IELM; 3) quantifying IELM; 4)

identifying and quantifying economic impacts for various hazards and scenarios; 5) identifying

recommendations and; 6) benefit-cost analysis of mitigation options.

Compiling key economic data

The first component of the assessment involves data collection. The reality in Maldives is that there

are almost no substantial economic data collected at island level. Most available economic data are

aggregated to the atoll or national level. A considerable amount of the data will have to be collected

on the field and a number of estimations are expected to fill the data gaps at island level.

Studies such as the census, Vulnerability and Poverty Assessment and Household Income and

Expenditure Survey provide some base data for the study. The final compilation will be done on the

field using questionnaire surveys of all economic sectors.

Establishing Island Economic Linkage Model

The IELM will be based on a generic network model, where key elements of the economy will be

defined as nodes and their interactions and dependencies defined as links. The identification of

nodes and links would require substantial qualitative interviews with community groups and

questionnaire surveys of the economic sectors within the island. This process eases after the first

two or three islands as most islands of Maldives have a generic pattern of linkages. An example of

the model is provided in figure 3.3 below.

Figure 3.3. Economic component assessment framework

Private Sector

Public Sector

External

Resorts

Internal

Households

Small Business

Tourism(hotels)

Key infrastructure

PublicService

inter-islandcargovessels

Fishing

Agriculture

Fishprocessing

infrastructure

Fishingbusiness

assetsMale'Port

Infrastructure

Natural resources

Agriculturebusiness

assets

The example above provides a simplified example of a linkage model. The elements within the

model are further sub-categorized for simplicity, depending on the resolution of data available and

collectable within the given timeframe. Once the model could be established with substantial

accuracy, it provides a snapshot of economic interactions being undertaken within the island. Based

on this model it is possible to predict the links and nodes affected if one of the nodes fails. From the

above example, if a key infrastructure such as harbor fails, it affects the inter-island supply of goods


17

and all major industries on the island. These inter-linkages and potential impacts of failure of various

nodes will be tested using community input during field consultations.

Quantifying Island Economic Linkage Model

The IELM model in its initial form will only be able to identify the potential chain of economic

impacts, but not the actual scale of the impact. In order to do this, the model will be further

developed to assign quantitative values to each node and interaction. Following the example from

previous section, it would be possible to quantify the economic value of fishing and agricultural

industry by valuing the production and assets of these two industries. When a specific node such as

a harbor fails, it would then be possible to predict the proportion of production lost due to the

strong linkage with harbor for business continuity. Hence, an economic value can be placed on the

loss of a specific node in this manner. In another example, we could assume that a resort closes

down due to a swell wave event. If the resort decides to lay off staff for the duration of

reconstruction, the direct links to the households could be measured by estimating the remittance

values. The follow-on effects on the small businesses will also become evident with the loss of

income.

It would require considerable knowledge of the local economic settings to establish an efficient

model. The results provided in the island reports are a good knowledge base to continue future

studies.

Identify and quantify economic impacts for various hazards and scenarios

This stage of the assessment will undertake the specific economic risk assessments for the island for

the given hazards and hazard scenarios. This assessment will used the hazard scenarios, hazard

zones, physical vulnerability data and the quantified IELM model to assess the impacts on various

nodes and linkages and value the cost of those impacts. The hazard scenarios provides the most

likely impacts on the island - such as percentage loss of agricultural areas or damage to harbor - for

any given hazard intensity. This data can be easy input into the IELM model to identify failure points

and quantified values due to those failures. A number of loss estimates including probability analysis

will be required wherever the hazard scenario fails to provide them. In addition, the hazard zones

will allow us to identify visually, where high impacts are going to take place and whether the

buildings where the businesses are located are vulnerable to a give hazard scenario. A GIS is used to

overlay various layers of information over the hazard zones to derive the losses.

The outputs from this assessment provide the quantified costs for a range of categories or

classifications. It could provide loss based on economic sector, social groups and specific hazards. It

will also identify high impact establishments which if affected could impact large sections of the

community.

Identifying recommendations

The fifth stage will involve identifying key recommendations and action plans based on the findings

from economic vulnerability assessment. These assessments will be based on expert judgment,

experiences of other countries, experience from past disasters and other similar studies in Maldives.


18

Key areas of concentration would be identifying mitigation options, policy implications for exiting

national development plans and implications on existing settlement planning processes, especially

within Population and Development Consolidation Policy. Cost-effectiveness studies will be

undertaken where appropriate.

Benefit –cost analysis of mitigation options

This stage of the analysis will attempt to undertake a preliminary benefit-cost analysis for the

quantifiable mitigation options presented in this and other components of this study. Moreover, it

will attempt to undertake benefit-cost analysis for the proposed generic safe-island concept and the

components proposed in it. This will give strong policy backing and realistic view of all risk

management options proposed in this project for each island.

3.2 Data Needs and Requirement

Table 3.1 summarizes the key data required, their availability and gaps.

Table 3.1 Economic data requirements, availability and gaps.

Data Required Data Availability & potential sources Gaps

Gross Domestic

Product

- Unavailable at island level

- Calculation may be impossible there is

lack of island level data on

expenditures and exports.

- Not possible to calculate an

island level GDP without at

least an years worth of data.

Inventory of business

establishments and

investments.

- Some data available at island office but

are not up-to-date.

- Field survey required

- Very limited data

Inventory of

infrastructure, public

services, housing and

other public

investments

- Infrastructure and service data

available from island office and

relevant Govt agencies.

- Housing data available from census and

island office.

- Recent infrastructure requires updating

during field surveys.

- Road length and sewerage network

size needs to be calculated using a GIS.

- Newly developed

infrastructure

- Only infrastructure

maintained by the Island

Office is recorded: excludes

roads, neru etc..

Value of public

investments

(infrastructure and

administrative

facilities)

- Available in a compiled form in (Shaig,

2009).

- Government agencies, particularly

DNP, NDMC, Ministry of Construction

(former), Ministry of Atolls

Administration.

- Government publications: PSIP, project

documents, Aid agency documents

- Base year is 2005.

- Most data has to be based on

replacement values as exact

values are rarely available.

-

Value of private

investments (houses,

personal property)

- Housing replacement value available

from NDMC and DNP

- Personal property values from VPAII

and filed surveys

- Replacement values do not

necessarily equal the original

value of the households, so all

households get assigned the

same value.


19

Data Required Data Availability & potential sources Gaps

- Personal property values are

difficult to fix as it varies

significantly between

households.

Value of business

investments

- Not available from any other source.

- Has to be collected during field surveys

- Cannot value physically survey

all establishments; sample

survey of 10% business from

each sector is undertaken.

Monthly Income and

Expenditure of

businesses and

economic activities

(productivity values

and profits).

- Not available for private businesses;

field survey required.

-

- Salaries vary, so an average

value is used for each

economic activity and

wherever, possible to key

roles in sector. Eg. boat owner

and fisherman for fishing.

Statistical Value of

Life

- Shaig (2009) - No official data

Monthly Income

(employees and self-

employed) and

remittances

- Public service data available from State

Budget document and island office.

- For the rest, field surveys required.

- Only average values possible.

Employment and

occupational data

- Census 2006 - Based year is 2006

Economic linkages

between various

sectors

- Not available; field surveys required. - No data.

3.3 Working Procedures

3.3.1 In-house data collection & literature review

In house data collection mainly involves collecting all major publications, project documents and

previous consultancy reports undertaken for the study island. It also involves collecting values on

financial values of public infrastructure, housing data and replacement values and employment data.

The key documents referred were as follows:

Socio-economic data

1. Maldives Population and Housing Census 2000 Expanded Dataset (Census 2000) and Census 2006

Expanded Dataset in electronic format received from Ministry of Planning and National

Development (MPND).


20

2. Maldives Vulnerability and Poverty Assessment 1998 (VPA I) dataset and questionnaires in

electronic format (Microsoft Access Database and Acrobat format), received from MPND.

3. Maldives Vulnerability and Poverty Assessment 2004 (VPA II) dataset and questionnaires in

electronic format (Microsoft Access Database and Acrobat format), received from MPND.

4. Education sector statistics of 2004 and 2005 in digital e-Book format (Adobe Acrobat) from

Ministry of Education (MoE, , 2004; MoE, , 2005).

5. Health sector information from Maldives Health Report 2005 in digital e-Book format (Adobe

Acrobat) from Ministry of Education (MoH, , 2005).

7. Existing island level infrastructure data in digital format (9 Excel files) from MPND and Ministry of

Atolls Administration. These files contained the details of main infrastructure in the outer islands:

existing infrastructure of access facilities (harbours, channels and jetties), education, health services,

administration, judicial services, religious facilities, power, sanitation, water and housing.

8. Damages to infrastructure caused by the tsunami from National Disaster Management Centre

(NDMC) in digital format (16 excel files).

10. Maldives Vulnerability and Poverty Assessment Report 1998 (MPND and UNDP, 1999).

11. Maldives Vulnerability and Poverty Assessment Report 2004 (MPND and UNDP, 2004).

12. Maldives Housing and Population Census 2000 and 2006 Analytical Report (MPND, 2001).

13. National Recovery and Reconstruction Plan 2005 (MPND, , 2005), developed following the Indian

Ocean Tsunami of 2004.

14. National Development Plan 2007-2012 (MPND, , 2006)

16. Infrastructure Development for Poverty Alleviation Project Report (BCL,, 2005)

Financial Data

1. Public Sector Investment Programme (PSIP) data in digital format (Excel) from MPND.

2. State Budgets of 2005 and 2006 (MoFT, , 2005; MoFT, , 2006) from Ministry of Finance and

Treasury in digital e-Book format (Acrobat).

3. Maldives Health Report 2005 (see above) provided data on health expenditure (both capital and

recurrent) at various hierarchies of health services.

4. Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) dataset, questionnaires and report (MPND, ,

2003) in electronic format (Microsoft Access Database and Acrobat format) from MPND. HIES is

country wide income and expenditure survey carried out with a relatively small sampling. The

following limitations were provided by the author (MPND):

“the survey design was such that the results are representative for Male' and at the regional level

(the five development regions) in the atolls. Thus, no conclusions can be drawn from the information


21

on the situation in any particular atoll. Also, it is important to note that the sample size of the survey

is rather small when analyzing the information at the regional level where only 120 observations are

available for each region”.

6. Infrastructure costs as of 2005 provided by National Disaster Management Centre in digital format

(Excel files). These included housing, road development, electricity infrastructure, schools, health

centres, community centre construction, social protection infrastructure, religious facilities, land

reclamation, waste management, coastal protection and judicial infrastructure. Since the figures

provided by NDMC were based on tsunami reconstruction costs of 2005, they reflect the actual costs

that would be incurred in a consolidation programme.

7. Access infrastructure and coastal protection costs (harbours, jetties, access channel dredging and

breakwaters) provided by MPND and Ministry of Environment and Construction (MEC) in digital

format (excel files).

9. Cost of sewerage and desalination systems provided by Ministry of Health (MoH), Maldives Water

and Sanitation Authority (MWSA) and NDMC in digital format (Excel files).

Additional Documents Reviewed

1. Maldives Public Expenditure Review (WB, ADB & GoM,, 2002). This is the most comprehensive

review of the public expenditure in Maldives and provides trends, key sectoral proportions of

expenditure and key aggregates of both capital and recurrent expenditure.

3. Regional Development Project reports (OPUS, , 1999a; , 1999bOPUS, ). These reports contain

sectoral policy summaries and detailed analysis of infrastructure costs associated with a major

regional development project in two regions of Maldives.

4. Outer Island Electrification Project Report (ADB, , 2001). This report provided the electricity

infrastructure development costs.

3.3.2 Field Surveys

Table 3.2 highlights the main surveys, data collection procedures, the parameters assessed and

resources required.

Table 3.2: Field surveys for economic assessment


Required

Parameters observed

- Business

establishment

Questionnaire

Survey (see

Appendix 3).

- Determine the sample

size (this study used

10% of each economic

sector)

- Select random sample

establishments (this

study used random

sample chosen based

on spatial distribution

and the size of the

Survey Forms; 5

surveyors;

Stationary; island

maps

- All highlighted in 3.2

- See Questionnaire

(appendix 3).

- Additionally, visual

observation of structure,

their location on the

island and storage of

stock is also undertaken.


22


Required

Parameters observed

establishment)

- Train surveyors

- Conduct surveys

concurrently

throughout the island.

Visiting times should

avoid prayer times

- Daily field meeting to

summarise main

findings.

- Data entry

Business

establishments

inventory

- Map each individual

establishment on a

map, noting their name

and type of

establishment.

- Compile a list of all no

structural investments,

including fishing

vessels, vehicles and

cargo boats. Data

should include their

characteristics (eg. size,

length). All these

facilities will have to be

visited.

2 persons,

accurate map of

the island, motor

cycle.

- All business

establishments.

Infrastructure

inventory

- Get an initial list from

island office.

- Visit all facilities to note

their characteristics

(size, condition, age

etc.)

2 persons,

accurate map of

the island, motor

cycle.

- All infrastructure

Island Survey

form

(see Appendix

2)

- Submit to Island office

for completion;

completion by survey

team with the island

office staff is preferred.

One staff

Island survey

form

Stationary

- See island Form in

Appendix 2

Island office

meeting

- Conduct a meeting with

senior island office staff

Survey team

- All gaps remaining in

island data.

- Expatriates information


23

3.4 Results interpretation and Presentation

The basis of the analysis should be conceptual Island Economic Linkages Model identified earlier in

the section. One the model is established based on the field survey findings and Census data, it

should be valued using values from the numerous sources identified in this study. This study has

already compiled the bulk of the baseline data so that future studies could use those values.

Data analysis for the Questionnaire Survey should ideally be undertaken using a statistical package

or spreadsheet (this study used a spread sheet and GIS database querying system). A number of

spreadsheets will need to be compiled to prepare the overall study. These sheets are provided in the

island reports.

Once the model is established some of these values could be entered into a GIS and overlaid on top

of the hazard zones. Based on the hazard intensity predicted in the hazard zones, physical losses to

various sectors of the economy could be estimated. These figures can be further enhanced using the

IELM to determine knock-on effects of losses through the economic linkages. Losses should be

estimated for all major hazards using a severe magnitude event as an example.

The mitigation measures should be suggested based on these losses and based on past projects and

concept documents related to mitigation. The costs of the mitigation should be calculated using the

financial data gathered (see previous sections).

A preliminary cost-benefit analysis should include all the estimated losses from the disasters as

benefits against the costs of mitigation measures. This should be done for single event and multiple

events and should consider a 25 year timeframe.

The assessment could be organized and presented into 4 main groups: i) island economic setting and

baseline economic conditions; ii) value of the economy; iii) economic linkages; iv) economic

establishments and their physical distribution; v) economic elements at risk and their vulnerability;

vi) local consequences of a disaster; vii)potential mitigation measures and; viii) costs and benefits of

mitigation measures.


24

References Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2001. Outer Island Electrification Programme: Final Report. Asian

Development Bank, Manila.

Bangladesh Consultants Limited (BCL), 2005. Infrastructure Development for Poverty Alleviation,

Volume I. Ministry of Planning and National Development, Male', Maldives.

Ministry of Education (MoE), 2004. Education Statistics 2004, Ministry of Education, Male', Maldives.

Ministry of Education (MoE), 2005. Education Statistics 2005, Ministry of Education, Male', Maldives.

Ministry of Finance and Treasury (MoFT), 2005. Dhaulathuge Budget 2005 [State Budget 2005],

MoFT, Male', Maldives.

Ministry of Finance and Treasury (MoFT), 2006. Dhaulathuge Budget 2006 [State Budget 2006],

MoFT, Male', Maldives.

Ministry of Health (MoH), 2005. The Maldives Health Report 2005. Ministry of Health, Male,

Maldives.

Ministry of Planning and National Development (MPND), 2003. Household Income and Expenditure

Survey 2002-2003. MPND, Male, Maldives.

Ministry of Planning and National Development (MPND), 2005. National Recovery and

Reconstruction Plan. MPND, Male', Maldives.

Ministry of Planning and National Development (MPND), 2006. Sixth National Development Plan

2007-2012, Ministry of Planning and National Development, Male', Maldives.

Morrow, B. H., 1999. 'Identifying and Mapping Community Vulnerability'. Disasters, 23 (1), 1-18.

MPND, 2001. Population and Housing Census 2000 of the Maldives Analytical Report, Ministry of

Planning and National Development, Male', Maldives.

MPND & UNDP, 1999. Ministry of Planning and National Development

United Nations Development Programme, Maldives, Male', Maldives.

MPND & UNDP, 2004. Ministry of Planning and National Development

United Nations Development Programme, Maldives, Male', Maldives.

Opus International Consultants Limited (Opus), 1999a. Final Report for the Atoll Development

Project. Ministry of Finance and Treasury, Government of Maldives, Male'.

Opus International Consultants Limited (Opus), 1999b. Final Report for the Atoll Development

Project. Ministry of Finance and Treasury, Government of Maldives, Male'.

Shaig, A., 2009. 'Settlement Planning for Natural Hazard Resilience in Small Island States: The

Population and Development Consolidation Approach', Draft PhD Thesis, James Cook

University, Townsville.

Smith, K., 2004. Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster, Routledge, New York.

The World Bank The Asian Development Bank and Government of Maldives, 2002. Maldives Public

Expenditure Survey (Report No. 24238-Mv). The World Bank, Washington.

UNDP, 2007. Detailed Island Risk Assessment Maldives, Volume Ii: Methodologies (Final Draft).

UNDP, Male'.

Varley, A., 1994. 'The Exceptional and the Everyday: Vulnerability Analysis in the the International

Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction'. In: Varley, A. (Ed.) Disaters, Development and

Environment. Wiley, New York.

Wisner, B., Blaikie, P., Cannon, T. & Davis, I., 2003. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability

and Disasters, Routledge, New York.


25

APPENDIX 1 – Household Questionnaire Survey


26

APPENDIX 2 – Island Information Form


27

APPENDIX 3 - Business Establishments Survey Form